Our first preview post focused on the importance of exploiting a mismatch at the PG position. Now we're going to have to take a look at mitigating damage from a colossal mismatch at shooting guard. Jodie Meeks vs. Dwyane Wade.
The Numbers
Analysis
We don't need to spend a whole lot of time on the offensive end for this one. Meeks needs to rediscover his jumper, and he needs to do it before game one tips off. If he does, he'll stretch the floor, make Miami pay for packing the lane and provide the Sixers with that dagger three in transition. If he doesn't, well, Collins is going to have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get this team to score in the 90s.
On the defensive end, Meeks really can't handle Wade. That's not a slight on Meeks, no one can handle Wade, but Jodie has had huge problems with him so far this year. I expect Collins will start out with Jodie getting the assignment, but he's going to have to switch it up at some point. The goal with Wade is to turn him into a jump shooter. If he's hitting 20-footers and threes, well, there's really nothing you can do. There are two approaches to try. The first is to dare Wade to shoot, give him a cushion to cut off the the drive and see if he'll bite. The problem is that he's so quick, if you give him that cushion he still has the ability to blow by you, or right over you and 9 times out of 10, he's going to get the whistle in his favor if that's the case. The other option is to double and trap Wade whenever he touches the ball. The shooters Miami puts on the floor makes these doubles really hard to pull off, and he's a very good passer. It would take exceptional defense to make this plan work, but Wade does turn the ball over pretty frequently, so pulling out the trap at odd intervals might just work.
The Backups: Well, I guess Evan Turner is going to have one more chance to make something out of his rookie season. If Jodie's shot isn't falling and/or he can't even put up a fight against Wade, Collins is going to have to go to Turner. I expect Jrue will some time guarding Wade, but he won't be in the game all the time and Lou can't do it. For defense alone, Collins is going to need Turner, and Turner has a huge opportunity here. He probably isn't going to slow Wade down, but he's got a chance to use his size to make things harder on him if he can move his feet and at least slow down his penetration. Another reason you might consider giving Turner extra minutes is keep Wade off the defensive glass. Miami relies on Wade and LeBron to clean the defensive glass because their bigs are unbelievably soft. Turner's an excellent rebounder, and works hard for position. If having him on the floor gives the Sixers an advantage on the offensive glass, that could be huge.
Eddie House is Miami's main backup at the two, though Wade will surely play 40+ minutes in any close game. House is a one-dimensional player, the one dimension being shooting the threes (I don't count being a jackass on the floor as a dimension). This is a theme for everyone on the Heat outside of the big three. House isn't exactly exceptional in his one dimension, but he's definitely a threat.
What needs to happen: It's all about keeping the deficit as small as possible here. If I had to bet, I'd say Miami takes this one 30 points to 15. If they can narrow that gap to 30-20, or even 25-15, you have to consider that a win for the Sixers. I'm not optimistic.
Wild Card: Collins does have the option of using Iguodala as a cooler in this game. Whenever Wade starts to heat up, he can shift Iguodala on him, just to keep Wade from scoring 15 in a row and taking the game over. I'd actually like to see Collins do this, use some exotic lineups Miami can't have in their scouting report to try to dictate who will be taking the shots, and getting the ball out of the hands of whoever's hot at critical points in the game.
Up next is the small forwards. Check back in the morning for Statman's look at the Sixers' clutch performance numbers for the season, then early afternoon for the Small Forwards preview. Thoughts in the comments, as always.
with Wade, our defensive rotations need to be excellent. when he gets the ball at the top of the key and blows by a helpless Meeks, the big needs to be ready to slide in place and the remaining dominoes should recover quickly. Team defense is key to stopping Wade from getting to the hoop.
Miami relies on Wade and LeBron to clean the defensive glass because their bigs are unbelievably soft - This is key. Last meeting we were scrambling while they were swooping in for seconds. If we can keep them off the boards and limit their fastbreak opportunities by not turning the ball over, our chances will be much improved.
doubling Wade has the aide effect of touch fouls.
I think the key to this whole series might be the refs and how they allow us to play. I say come out ultra aggressive and set the tone. Put Wade on is back every time he goes to the hoop. Make the refs accommodate a very physical game like Boston does.
I have always felt that the way to take a great scorer out of his game is to make him play defense. It would be to our advantage to see Meeks running off screens all game with Wade chasing him or Turner using his size to post him up. Thing is that's not how either if these players have been used during the regular season.
Yeah, I think the best chance we have of making Wade exert energy on the defensive end is to have Jrue and Lou abuse Bibby and Chalmers. Make Miami use Wade on the point defensively and that could take something away from his offensive game, or at least maybe limit his minutes/energy level late in the game.
Wade to me is the key to the series. If the Sixers can find a way to stop him without using Iguodala on him their chances would be much improved. I'd change the SG constantly Meeks/Turner/Lou/Iguodala so that he will be guarding a different player often during the course of the game. That can produce mental fatigue, which is just as important as physical fatigue.
My best guess of a game plan for the Heat is simple:
- Make the games physical. The Heat are soft and can easily be frustrated with physical play
- Defensively focus your attention on Lebron and Wade. Make Bosh and the supporting cast beat you
- Defend the three
- Attack them inside at any cost
Could this be a series that starts to shift our coaches' confidence level in Meeks and Turner? I think Turner's defense, rebounding and overall physicalness may help in a matchup Miami needs to win in a big way. Brian, your comment about different lineups is interesting, I wonder if Spieghts can be used to abuse their weak bigs offensively mainly because their bigs can't score much on the other end. And after Hawes is torched early on their [Wade and Lebron] forays to the hoop, Spieghts athletism may be a welcome addition.
The issue with Wade is the more than the guy guarding him. Guys like Wade (and lots of players) can get past the first line of defense. And right now the Sixers have no deterrent in the lane. He needs to fear either embarrassment or pain/injury. So either a legit shot blocking presence or a rugged Mahorn type who will deliver hard fouls. In either case it would lead Wade to be more willing to settle for jumpers instead of risking his body or ego. And that does not even go into the Sixers bigs weakness on the pick and roll.
I do not think you can play too far off of him. That gives him a running start- which is like trying to stop an elite RB who gets past the line of scrimmager with a full head of steam. You have to stay up on him and show extremely hard of every pick and roll.
.....
Basically the Sixers need to go Jeff Van Gundy on them. The Heat are going to get the calls... so fine make the refs be in the spotlight. Go into game one super aggressive. Have every guard get right up and into Wade and hand-guard, slap and push. Same thing in the lane. Don't be afraid of an and-1. Go for a block or strong foul every time. And on offense drive every time. You won't get the call, but it will make it clear that Miami uis not simply getting calls by being the aggressor.
Then Collins needs to leave his starters in their regular minutes. I'd plan to see 5 or 6 guys foul out. Have there be 4 fouls on every starter by halftime. Don't whine or show frustration. Just let it be incredibly one sided at the foul line. Then later in the game the Sixers will be left with only 4 players because the whole team fouled out- while none of the Heat will be in foul trouble. Make it a national story.
After the game Collins should say something like:
"The Heat have some great players who have earned the respect of the referees. We don't have a problem with that, and are going to continue to try and play our game. We have strong, physical defenders in Jrue, Turner, Iguodala and Brand. I am not about to tell them to change their game simply out of fear of foul trouble. That would be a disservice to my players, the team and the game... All I ask is that when our players are on the the attack that they get awarded the same level of respect."
Then game two the refs would have to make a change, and Miami will be off their game. You still are unlikely to change the outcome, but you made a statement that the Sixers are a physical defense and do not back down to prima donna stars. And if the Heat wants to get past them they will do it at the foul line and with the refs aid- and they will have to endure a physical series- even if it is a short one.
This would actually be fun to see. Just completely hammer them in game one, dare the refs to foul everybody out.
Yeah, sort of a "if you can't beat them then just beat them" strategy. Old time Broadstreet Bullies style.
I wish this team had a Mahorn.
You don't see Hawes as a Mahorn? Don't let his limp-wristed jog back on defense fool you, he's a killer.
Story: Sixers don't have near the Heat's playoff experience:
http://ow.ly/4B0VQ
Turner: 'I never would've thought my NBA career would start like this'
http://ow.ly/4B1Fh
Video: Collins on matchups and regular-season games with Heat, as well as atmosphere in Miami and Holiday at point guard:
http://ow.ly/4B3A8
Lot of good ideas in here to throw the Heat off their game.
I think it would be awesome if the Sixers broke out a trap or press whenever one of James/Wade would sit.
i like it
but i like your name even better. the sherrif!i think rodney buford led the league in ozs of weed per season
Great ideas by you guys thrown out there. Ultimately it really isn't going to matter. The 6ers are getting slaughtered. The teams youth and lack of a go to guy will be exposed ten fold.