Now that the Sixers are just as close to the #4 seed, and home court advantage in the first round (4.5 games) as they are to being out of the playoffs, I think it's safe to take a look at possible matchups. Here are the standings as of all the games on 3/17.
| Eastern Conference |
| |
|
W |
L |
PCT |
GB |
| 1 |
Boston |
53 |
13 |
.803 |
- |
| 2 |
Detroit |
48 |
18 |
.727 |
5 |
| 3 |
Orlando |
45 |
24 |
.652 |
9 ½ |
| 4 |
Cleveland |
38 |
30 |
.559 |
16 |
| 5 |
Toronto |
34 |
33 |
.507 |
19 ½ |
| 6 |
Washington |
33 |
33 |
.500 |
20 |
| 7 |
Philadelphia |
33 |
34 |
.493 |
20 ½ |
| 8 |
Atlanta |
29 |
38 |
.433 |
24 ½ |
If the season ended today, the Sixers would face the Pistons in the first round. I think Wednesday's game showed that the Sixers wouldn't roll over and die against the Pistons, but a 7 game series, with ample days off, is probably just too much for the Sixers. The Pistons have the experience, and the guys to hit the big shots. Also, the scheduling of the playoffs favors teams with older players, or at least takes away any advantage young legs would give you.
Now, who should we want the Sixers to face? Well, that's a loaded question. The goal has to be getting out of the first round. Here are the most-favorable outcomes, as far as I'm concerned.
- Finish with the #4 seed, face Cleveland with home court advantage
- Finish with #6 seed, face Orlando
- Finish with #5 seed, face Cleveland
- Finish with #7 seed, face Detoit
- Finish with #8 seed, face Boston
After the jump we'll get into remaining schedules and probabilities for each scenario.
The Sixers have 15 games remaining, 8 at home, 7 away. Here's how the match ups fall out:
8 games vs. teams with a better record: Denver, @ Orlando, @ Boston, Phoenix, @ Cleveland, Detroit, @ Washington, Cleveland.
7 games vs. teams with a worse record: New Jersey, Chicago, @ New Jersey, @ Atlanta, Atlanta, Indiana, @ Charlotte
If they beat the teams they should beat, and lose to the teams they should lose to, according to records only, they will finish the season 40-42.
Now, for the scenarios from the previous page:
#4 seed - 4.5 games is a whole lot to make up over 15 games, but it isn't impossible. Cleveland only has 4 games left with teams ahead of them in the standings (3 vs. Detroit, 1 vs. Orlando and 1 vs. New Orleans). They also have 1 game vs. Toronto. However, the Sixers face the Cavs twice, including the second-to-last game of the season. If the Sixers can take both of those games it only becomes a 2.5 game swing. Still, Cleveland has only 5 road games left, 9 at home. They'd have to lose all the games listed above, the two to the Sixers and probably another 1 or 2 against bad teams for this to be a possibility.
Probability - Slim to none
First Round Match-up - LeBron James is the best player in the game. I think the team surrounding him is HIGHLY suspect, but he can put anyone on his back and win a series on his own. The only reason this is the most favorable scenario is the home court advantage. I've been at the Wach for several playoff games, it's crazy there and given 4 home games and LeBron's supporting group, I think the Sixers could pull this one out. Andre Iguodala has as good a shot as any swing man in the East of manning up on LeBron. I think Mo could scheme something to limit LeBron's damage either as a scorer or a facilitator.
#6 seed - The Sixers are only .5 games behind the Wizards. The Wizards have 16 games left, 8 against teams with better records, 10 on the road. This is a tough stretch and Gilber Arenas' return is still up in the air (it's questionable as to whether his return would be a good or bad thing for this team).
Probability - Very likely. The Wizards have a tough schedule down the stretch, and they aren't exactly playing good basketball. The Sixers could overtake them as soon as Wednesday.
First Round Match-up - Orlando is a tough assignment, but not impossible. Their defense is sub-par, their offense, while potent, is keyed toward the three-pointer. You can game plan to take away open threes. Also, one huge advantage the Sixers have is Andre Miller. Jameer Nelson cannot handle him. If Dalembert can stay out of foul trouble and cover Dwight Howard one-on-one, the Sixers could have a shot. Howard will get his numbers, if you can limit the damage Rashard Lewis and Hedo do from the outside, you've got a fighting chance. I like the defensive match-ups with Thad and Igduodala guarding the talented Orlando wings.
#5 seed - Toronto is in complete free fall mode. The Sixers have gained 6 games on them in the standings over the past 10 games. If Chris Bosh doesn't come back soon, they're going to continue to fall. They have a one-game lead on the Sixers currently. Their schedule is tough over the next two weeks with games against Denver, Detroit, New Orleans and Cleveland, but they have a cakewalk from March 31st on. 8 of their last 9 come against teams with a sub .500 record.
Probability - 75/25 against. Those last 9 games are just a cakewalk. The one they "should" lose is against Detroit when Detroit won't have anything left to play for.
First Round Match-up - See my statements above about LeBron and his 11 stiffs teammates, only subtract the home court advantage. I don't like the Sixers odds if they have to win a game or two in Cleveland, but I like them better than the last two scenarios.
#7 seed - It would take a pretty big collapse for the Sixers to fall any lower than 7.
Probability - High. This is the most-likely scenario
First Round Match-up - We've talked about the Pistons plenty over the past week. The Sixers showed they can play the Pistons' game and beat them, on the road. Their big starting lineup (Iguodala at the two) will continue to give the Pistons fits, and may limit Rip Hamilton's minutes and effectiveness. Still, beating the Pistons is a tall, tall order. Moving up out of this position is obviously preferable.
#8 seed - The Sixers are 4.5 games ahead of the Hawks today. The Hawks have an easy schedule,
with an expected 9-6 finish, and two games left against the Sixers.
They'd probably have to finish 11-4 with 2 wins over the Sixers to
finish in 7th.
Probability - Slim
First Round Match-up - This time last week, I preferred the Celtics to the Pistons in the first round. Now, I've changed my mind. I still think the Celts' old guys have played too many minutes, but I just don't see Garnett allowing this team to get knocked out in the first round. He creates too many mismatches and this team will benefit more than any other by the generous scheduling.
That's how I see it today. If you could choose, who would you like to see the Sixers matched up against in the first round?
Hmmm, if I had to choose I would probably avoid Lebron. I prefer the Magic. They showed during their last matchup that if they defend the three and bother Howard just enough they can compete with them easily. There previous problems with them were not rotating on defense and not defending the three.
The key would be how well Dalembert handles Howard, and how much patience Mo has. If Howard gets 25-30 points that doesn't kill you if you limit the wide-open threes. If he can leave Sammy on an island and stick w/ the guys on the perimeter I like our chances. I also like Iguodala and Thad on Turkuglu and Lewis.
While it would be great to see how the kids do against LeBron (especially Thad defending him) - if they actually want to win a series- the best bet is- get the 6 seed and hope for the best.
Getting to the 5 seed would be a major accomplishment and would be fun to watch. The thing that would scare me is that the NBA would do everything it could to get LeBron into that second round to play the Celtics.
If I was facing LeBron, I think I'd double him every time he touched the ball, no matter where he is. His supporting cast is not good at all. Make Delonte West beat you. Reggie Evans would be a good choice as the second defender, just throw Reggie at him whenever it's in his hands, make him give it up.
I like your order.
I don't think we would have much of a chance vs. the Pistons. I think 5 games would be probable.
Cavs - I feel like they are underrated even though they have Lebron. Seems impossible. They are the typical one star surrounded by role players. Remember Joe Smith last year? He played pretty well for us. Varejo, Delonte, Devin Brown, Boobie, Big Z, Joe, and Ben all fit the mold of good role players. Many bring good defense and energy. Wally stinks.
Magic - I disagree with leaving Sammy on an island. The Sixers won their most recent game by doubling on the entry pass the entire second half. Sammy gets owned by Dwight. I would press the Magic often and double Howard all day. I'd make Brian Cook, Jameer and Marice Evans beat the 6ers.
I think we match up well with the Magic, but I am not turning down home court.
The Magic would kill the sixers if they doubled down too much on Howard. They would not keep Evans, Nelson, and Cook on the floor together for anything more than a minute here or there. They would have Turkoglu and Lewis spreading the floor with one or more of those players, Garrity, Bogans etc...and howard most of the time.
Yes, Howard would still get 25 and 14 against Sam most nights one on one but they can hang with them giving up points to Howard - the game would get away from the sixers if they allowed three points looks to those players too many times.
I'm with Max on this one. It's one thing to double the pick and roll at the top of the key. When you double hard it's extremely hard to take advantage. Doubling down on the post is going to result in someone being wide open. Against the Magic, that means an open three because that's what they look for. In the post, Dalembert has to guard him one-on-one to have a shot. I don't care if he gets 30 pts and 20 rebounds, that's better than 15 wide-open threes for Turk and Lewis.
I would prefer the Pistons. As you said, the big lineup gives the Sixers a chance against them.
As for playing the Magic, I hope it doesn't happen in the 1st round. The Sixers are not a good team defending the 3. and the Magic live for that. Thaddeus and AI guarding Hedo/Rashard sounds great, but with all the attention Dwight gets, it's gonna rain threes.
The big lineup gives them an advantage over just about every team in the East. If Thad can handle the three, Iguodala is too much for any shooting guard in the East to handle, and the Sixers should look to both guards down on the low blocks with that lineup. The biggest problem, of course, is the zone. No one on the floor can really bust the zone w/ threes, unless Iguodala is really on that night.