will feature less comparative analysis and a whole lot more guesswork. Jrue Holiday is mostly an unknown heading into this season. There's no way to tell how good of player he'll be at only 19 years-old, and there's really no way to know how the Sixers plan to bring him along. After the jump, I'll try to piece together some projections.
There are two critical questions we need to at least guess at before we can project anything for Jrue. First, does the team plan to follow the same pattern they had for Thad and Speights over the past two seasons? The second is exactly how raw is Jrue?
Let's start with the team's perspective. First of all, Jrue's situation is completely different from both Thad and Speights' in their rookie years. Thad was thought of as a long-term project from the get-go. He was behind Iguodala on the depth chart and absolutely nothing was expected of the team. From opening night it was made clear that the plan was to bring Thad along slowly, then when Ed Stefanski took over (and traded Kyle Korver), Thad was sort of thrust upon Mo Cheeks. The rest was history. Thad played over 1,500 minutes in his rookie season, and cemented his spot as a building block for the franchise.
Last season, Marreese Speights was drafted before the Sixers signed Elton Brand. Again, he was believed to be a little bit raw, and once Brand was brought on board, the expectations were extremely low. Speights saw sporadic action early in the year, his minutes grew when Brand was first injured, but his defense and/or the coaching staff didn't allow him to significantly increase his role throughout the season. Speights played 1,262 minutes in his rookie season. A year in which big things were expected of the Sixers, which I'm sure had something to do with his minute total, in a negative way.
This year, Jrue Holiday was considered a steal at #17 by most draft experts. He was also plays a position which has zero depth for the Sixers. Even a best-case scenario of Lou Williams stepping into the PG position and thriving still leaves a minimum of 15 minutes/game where someone else is going to have to man the point. Unlike Speights and Thad before him, the team needs Jrue to provide something almost immediately.
Which brings us to the second question, will the kid be able to hack it right away? For me, the key will be his defense. If he brings effort on the defensive end, coupled with his quickness, size and aggression he should be able to play heavy minutes from the jump. His on-the-ball defense and rebounding should be enough to offset whatever warts are exposed in his offensive game. If he plays D, you can live with his O, if it's sub-par.
But, if he's out of his element on both sides of the floor, the team is going to need to protect him. You don't want to take a 19 year-old kid and throw him to wolves. The Sixers seem to get this, and have no problem bringing along young players slowly, so my prediction is that we'll see Jrue's minutes gradually increase as the season goes on. If you look at the talent on the roster, it's not a stretch to say Jrue should be the first guard off the bench from day 1, but I'm just not sure we'll see that. Here are my projected stats, with a bit more analysis below:
You'll notice the decent shooting percentages, there are a few reasons for these projections: #1 I don't think there will ever be a time where the offense is dependent on Jrue. He's going to be a facilitator and an opportunity scorer on the offensive end. I think he'll produce a very strong 2-point percentage, mainly because he can get to the hole and use his size to finish. The big number that I'm hoping for is the three-point percentage. The book on Jrue is that he has a fundamentally sound jumper, and only needs repetitions to become a good three-point shooter. Well, he's gotten plenty of reps this summer and I think when the season begins, he's going to be the recipient of quite a few open looks from three. If he can hit about a third of the shots he takes, he'll be bringing something to the table when he's out there. Defenses will eventually have to respect that type of shooter. The rebounding and assist numbers should be strong, as should steals and blocks. Turnovers are going to be a problem, I just don't see any way around that, for now.
Thoughts in the comments, Rodney Carney will be the next guy on the hot seat,
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Wow. If those are your real expectations (as opposed to hopes/dreams), I'm super positive you're going to be sorely disappointed. You're way too optimistic, it sez here, in almost every category except rebounds (but, tho it wasn't a category, i'll agree he should have a nice 2pt fg%).
Your turnovers and fouls look a little high, even for Jrue. Overall I think he'll play to his calling cards this first year: above average defense/rebounding; occasionally he'll score at the hole; poor decision-making as a facilitator.
Can't see him taking over the starting role this year (of course barring injury) and if Lou ups his defense to mediocre, it might be tough for him to break through next year, too.
I agree with you.
I don't see him taking over the starting role either, just see his minutes probably increasing as the season wears on. As for the projections, the shooting percentages are the only things I'm not really all that comfortable with, but I have him taking very few shots, his usage % would be below 20%. I don't see him trying to do too much offensively, so I think the percentages should be decent if he's only taking wide open shots.
I was thinking about this last night, and mostly agree with Brian's assessment. There are just so many minutes there for the taking at PG. He just has to be solid and under control- which I know is asking a lot of a 19 year old PG.
But looking at the summer league games it is clear that he is more than happy to act as a facilitator and give non-stop defensive effort. He also has a very good handle and can dribble to where he needs to go.
I don't see him as much of a creator at this stage, so I don't expect big assist numbers right away. He also will give up some ugly TO's as he learns how to handle traps and what types of passes you can get away with. But those will be temporary.
The kid seems to have a demeanor similar to Thad. He seems a bit up tight out there, but he responds by trying to play within himself. i don't see someone who will force the issue before he is ready. I don't expect him to dominate the ball or generate a ton of TOs.
Also, like Thad, he missed a ton of easy inside shots in his first Summer League. In Thad's case this came down to just needing to get a comfort level. I'm hoping that it will be the same for Jrue and that he'll be able to take advantage of his size and ability to get into the lane.
Remember, in HS scouts equating his style of game to Chris Paul. The players are physically different, but Jrue supposedly had the same style of probing the defense relentlessly in order to open up easy looks for teammates. I'm certainly not expecting anything like that this year, but I doo think he might just surprise a lot of people and play with a level of control that is ahead of his years.
I'm definitely more worried about turnovers than bad shots, but he's a rookie PG, those things are to be expected.
Here's an interesting comp. I believe only 3 or 4 PGs have played more than 1,200 minutes in their rookie year for playoff teams: Tony Parker, Derrick Rose, and one or two others who are slipping my mind right now.
It's unusual for a team expected to go to the playoffs to lean on a rook for heavy minutes at the PG, I'm just wondering if they actually will lean on Jrue. I don't see a legit alternative, to be honest.
deron williams should be another.
Nope, Utah was 41-41 that season, didn't make the playoffs.