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Earlier today SML and I had a friendly disagreement in the comments section over at Cobra Brigade over where Andre Iguodala ranks among the elite small forwards in the league. He put a bunch of offensive guys ahead of Iguodala, I disagreed, so I tried to come up with a fair way to gauge a player's impact on both ends of the floor. As Tray can tell you, I'm not a huge fan of PER, because I think in a vacuum it doesn't take defense into account (blocks and steals can be misleading indicators). What I came up with was a way to use PER in some context. Namely, looking at a player's PER as compared to his opponent's PER. Here's the table with the statistics. These numbers come from 82games.com and they are only for minutes played at small forward. (Whether SF is his ultimate position and whether these numbers translate to SG is another debate for another time).  As you can see, Iguodala ranks #8 in difference between PER and opponent's PER. He's #8 overall in PER only, #9 in opponent's PER. Most impressive is that only LeBron, McGrady and Pierce top Iguodala's numbers in both categories. It's a limited view, obviously, but I think a telling one. It's very hard to quantify a player's impact on defense and finding a way to place a value on that relative to offensive production is even more difficult. What do you think? Where does Iguodala rank? Did I waste way too much time digging up these stats?
Comments
I don't think Arenas is going to help them to be honest with you. Milwaukee and Atlanta both did us huge favors tonight. Three-way tie for the #5 seed right now.
Yeah. They will have to adjust to Arenas again which means that there are going to be power struggles and that will cost them a game or 2.
I believe that what they did was take the opposing player at the same position, so the other team's SF. Not a perfect method, but there you have it. I will say this, though. Iguodala usually takes the toughest defensive assignment on the perimeter. I don't think you can say the same about a lot of guys on this list.
Pretty imperfect method. Not only does Iguodala not always play the opposing SF, not only is he not always even in the game when they're on the floor, but even when he is matched up with them, this is taking into account how good our help defense is as well. If they get by him and Dalembert blocks their shot, that helps his opponent PER. Besides, if you had just stuck to his own PER, he'd rank exactly as high as he does on your spreadsheet. The only thing that would change is Butler would move above him and Howard would move below. So however you do it, he's eighth. Anyway, it's not so surprising. A lot of guys are more polished scorers than he is, but he does a lot more than just score.
I agree, it's definitely imperfect. So if we use PER only, Iguodala is number 8 on this list. If you take the SGs out of there, he's #5. How much is a top 5 SF worth?
LeBron - Averaging $14.4M for 3 seasons.
Pierce - Averaging $18.9M for 4 seasons.
Melo - Averaging $15.76 for 5 seasons
Butler - Averaging $9.3 for 4 seasons. (a complete bargain)
So what's a palatable figure to sign Iguodala for? 5 years, $13M/per? 5 years, $14M/per? Seeing where he ranks here, I think he's in line for that much.
Keep in mind that Pierce and Melo are both second bananas now on playoff teams. Butler probably would be if Arenas was healthy.
The list of players stems from the comment on Cobra Brigade. Redd does actually have minutes at SF, but very few.
Thanks for the links Chris, those are pretty cool numbers. I'd like to be able to separate out this season for Iguodala, though. Those numbers go back to the beginning of '06-'07, when Webber and Iverson were still in Philly. He's been a different player since then.
That's awesome. Sometimes I think I'd like to see Arenas on the Sixers for comedic value alone.
LeBron and Kobe definitely. With Pierce and Marion I think you have to take into account the versatility of Iguodala on defense. He takes the toughest non-post player on the opposing team. Whether that's a super quick guy on the perimeter or a guy like Dirk. I don't think either of those guys can man up on smaller players and shut them down.
I don't know if it's just when I saw him play, but it sure looked like Artest has lost a step when I last saw him. I think McGrady's D is under-rated.
AK is a different type of defender, but a very effective one.
This is the question I'm trying to answer. Tie game, there are 10 seconds left on the clock, the other team has the ball in their best player's hands above the 3pt line, middle of the floor, they're running a 1-4 set. It's obvious he's going to work one-on-one for the game winning shot. Who do you want defending him? For me it goes LeBron, Kobe then maybe Iguodala. Artest, is definitely in the argument. I'm not sure I'd take any of the other guys over him in that situation.
Also, I'm fully aware that in a year or two Iguodala may not be the best guy on his own team to be in this situation. Thad is on his way to being that good.
Your point about signing him as one of the best 5 SF and moving him to SG is valid. It's a concern. I think he'll handle the move well, and give the Sixers a huge advantage in the half court (only Kobe can really match up with him at the 2), but you can't really be sure.
Here's something that I haven't seen talked about much, but what if they do go out and get a sick shooter to play the 2 and keep Iguodala and Thad where they are right now? Thad may be shorter than ideal for the PF, but I think he might have the low post moves and quickness to be a presence down there, and we already know he can defend most PF's.
If there is no true answer at PF in free agency or trades, I'd prefer a shooter (Arenas? Gordon? I don't know, I'm not crazy about either of them) at the two and Thad at the 4 to someone like Turiaf overpaid to play the 4.
My hope is, they don't force a trade or signing for a problem superstar 4 just to fill the 4 (O'neal, Randolph). The same goes for trying to acquire a 2 (Gordon - game is flawed). You will subtract by addition. I think they will see what the market holds; if nothing makes sense they might try to keep Thad at the 4 for another season and see what develops in the 2009 market. It's what I would do given the talent we can play with. Thad has solid post moves. He would have another season to develop his right hand, and his dribble. I mean, Thad should have the potential for another inch and maybe 20 pounds eventually right? In which case he would be able to handle the 4 full time ala Josh Smith.
My problem with this scenario is Thad has already stated his desire to play the 3; I think he's an ideal 3 as well. That's where he will become a mega-star potentially given his skills. The 4 doesn't have the same promise for him. So I'd like to see him moved there sooner rather than later so he can begin his ascent. Iggy can handle the switch to 2 much easier given his leadership and ability to enhance his shot (which I think he will in spades this summer). So I'm leaning in the iggy 2, thad 3 scenario the most. But if it happens because they acquire high priced crap - I'll be pissed.
OK. I feel a need to bring it up. What about Brand? The Sixers are far enough under the cap to work out a sign and trade with Brand. Brand is an elite PF in the NBA and he has had only one major injury. The Sixers have from 10-12 mill. They could work a sign and trade where they start Brand at just over 12 and then have it escalate reaching a total of 75 million over 5 years. That is 15 million per.
Brand has stated he wants to stay in LA in the past, but what else is he going to say? The Sixers could do the trade and only lose a weak contract like Booth along with some picks since they can do any trade that results in them being under the cap afterwards.
Obviously you only sign Brand if you know that you are resigning Miller as well...
Miller, Lou
Iggy, Willie
Thad, Carney
Brand, Reggie
Sammy, Smith
I'd love to see them get Brand, and if he opts out I think he'll probably be priority #1 for Stefanski. I'm just not sure he's going to opt out. He's owed $16M next season, and he may want to prove he's back from the achilles injury and go for max money after next season. Plus, more teams would be able to bid on him next year, not just the Sixers, Clippers and Grizzlies.
I would think he would take a 5 year deal if he can get it coming off the injury. A switch to the east would help him as well. It seems like a great fit assuming Miller is also going to resign...
I see him opting out if he thinks he can get a good long term deal.
It's probably going to depend on how he looks over these last 7 games. He's looked really good tonight. If he can prove he's all the way back now, he can pretty much guarantee a long-term deal. If he gets hurt or shows that he's lost a step, he'd probably use next year to rehab his value.
Well... I'd like to think Thad will develop the skills to be a really good 3, but if he never becomes more than a great finisher around the rim (strictly offensively speaking), then you could do it. The Suns played Marion at the 4 for a long time and it didn't seem to hurt them. You do give up some size though, but I guess if we ever went deep into the playoffs you could match Dalembert up with the Garnetts and Duncans of the world and have Young guard the non-factor centers. Let me say though, we can't sign Arenas. Gunners are one thing; Arenas is a completely different animal.
If you're a stripper and you see Amundson, Shavlik and Jason Smith coming it's time to run for the hills.
Thanks for that link Steve. It's funny seeing Iguodala and Barkley together. They were kind of in the same situation in Philly. Barkley started right at the end of Dr. J's career. He inherited the leadership of the team. Just like Andre.
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So this tells us how opposing players do when Iguodala's guarding them? How do they figure all that out? He doesn't always guard small forwards so you'd have to actually watch every game and see who he's guarding... but putting that aside, I'm not uncomfortable with where this ranks Andre. None of the guys below him are clearly better.
Also, did you see that Arenas is back? Not good news.