The preseason (3 days) and regular season (23 days) openers are bearing down on us in a pleasant,
cautiously optimistic kind of way. With the summer officially dead, the time has come to shift into gear for meaningful basketball games (hopefully).
On a personal note, it's been a trying, long summer. I apologize for the lack of posts here, it was embarrassing and unfortunate, but also unavoidable. I'm not 100% sure what form the blog will take this season, but it will live on. A lot is going to depend on how early I can get home from work, but if all goes to plan, coverage here shouldn't change that much. I'm planning on game threads for all games. I'm not sure about previews and post-games, I might shift the emphasis to longer, more thoughtful next-day pieces now that the season will actually have off days mixed in. I'm sure it'll evolve as the season goes on, but I'm committed to being here and I'm sure the last thing you want to hear is a sob story from me, so I'll just apologize and get back to hoops.
OK, so let's just start out with some bullets before we get back to the wholesale changes series.
- Jrue's Extension: According to Marc Stein on Twitter, Jrue and Ty Lawson (two guys who will forever be linked) are both likely to receive extensions prior to this year's deadline (October 31, I believe). This has the potential to be good or bad news. If Jrue signs an extension in the neighborhood of what Mike Conley received from Memphis in 2010 (5 years, $40M) it's great news. Fair market value, and a bargain if Jrue taps into his potential going forward. It's really bad news if he gets anywhere near the max contract he was rumored to be seeking earlier this season. If he does in fact sign an extension prior to the season, you'd have to think his starting point is the deal Thad signed prior to last season (5 years/$42M), and it'll probably be north of there. I can just see his agent saying, "You paid young $42M and he doesn't even start." My best guess, and a number I can live with is, is 5 years, $50M. Anything more than that and Jrue is going to really have to make a giant leap to justify the contract, and I'm not sure you'd want to put that kind of pressure on him, in this city. There's a chance he could perform at a level that would price him out of that range this coming season, but it's far from a sure thing. If it takes more than $50M to get the deal done, I say roll the dice and see how he performs this season.
- Thad's Role: Every summer it's something new with Thad. Will he be a three? Will he be a four? Did he work on his jumper? Is he a starter? This summer, the rumors have run the gamut. Thad has beefed up to be able to handle playing the four a little better. He's worked on his jumper. He wants to play the three. He wants to be a starter. Collins likes him coming off the bench. Personally, I think he should be starting at the four and playing as many minutes next to Bynum as possible. His jumper will spread the floor as much as Hawes', and he can hurt you in so many other ways on the offensive end as well. I believe Collins wants Hawes on the floor as a safety valve for the offense, now that he doesn't have Iguodala to settle things down, but Hawes takes away more than he adds, he isn't going to be able to guard any PFs, and it's time to take the training wheels off of the offense. Put the ball in Jrue's hands, let him run the offense. I don't want to see Hawes catching the ball 22 feet away from the hoop.
- Bynum's "Injury": Until I hear differently, this three-week rest period for Bynum is just a matter of "better safe than sorry." It's going to hurt the development of the team to not have him in there for the preseason, and I expect the beginning of the year to be sloppy and disjointed because of it, but having him healthy for the 82-game haul is much more important than these few weeks to build up familiarity and chemistry. If three weeks bleeds into four or five, I'll be concerned.
- The Starting Lineup: Barring an injury, I'd say it's about 90% the starting five will be Jrue, Richardson, Turner, Hawes and Bynum on opening night. I still think it should be Jrue, Richardson, Wright, Thad and Bynum.
I think that about sums it up. Here's a question for you guys. You know Collins isn't going to go much deeper than eight for his real rotation, maybe nine. So name your nine in the comments below.
Great to have you back, Brian!
I think the nine guys in the rotation will be
Holiday/Turner/Richardson/Hawes/Bynum/Young/Young/Wright/Allen.
I could see Nick Young falling out of the rotation if his shot selection is poor and doesn't cut it on the defensive side of the ball.
Starting Turner somewhat confounds me, simply because we don't have anyone to play point other than Holiday/Turner(unless we want to play Ivey, but I think they seem him as a safety valve in case of injury), one of them is going to have play a lot of consecutive minutes to start the game.
I guess I haven't watch enough of N.Young/Wright/Richardson to know if any of them are at least passable as back up point guards.
I don't think young/wright/richardson has any prayer of playing the point.
Collins is going to either demand they get a legit PG to carry some of the load, overuse Ivey (and Ivey isn't a legit PG) or really be forced to play Jrue 40+ minutes/game.
Hollinger tweeted Wayns has a real shot at getting backup point minutes. He looks fantastic in all of the videos from the scrimmages, FWIW. Making threes most importantly.
Anyone know anything about him from college? Is he a legit PG, or a scorer who can dribble enough to run the point?
I've seen him since he was in high school.
Struggled a little in college running a team last year, but had terrible teammates. I'd say the latter, though he has made some nifty passes in the scrimmages.
He's definitely the latter as Rich said. Wish they would have signed Ish Smith instead.
What is this love affair with Ish Smith? He might be the worst shooter in the league.
Evan Turner excluded?
I have this strange ET optimism going on right now. Although it will probably be short lived.
Just feel like he is in a position to really succeed given the relative strengths of his teammates. He could be in a position to.look really good as the guy who dribbles a lot and draws the defense. Exactly the opposite as last year. Shooters and Bynum might make some ill advised drives look good.
He can only dream of being as good a shooter as Turner. Smith's career TS% is (gulp) 41 percent.
Hallelujah! ....can I get an amen
Seriously though:
Jrue
JRich
ET
Hawes
Bynum
----
Dorell
Thad
Nick
Lavoy
You know, it sucks when you can't go anywhere else on the web for well-informed at-least-intelligent Sixers discussion. Depressed fan carries many meanings for some.
Good to have you back, man. I think we actually see 10 to start the year.
Jrue, J-Rich, Turner, Hawes, Bynum.
Wayns, Young, Wright, Allen, Brown,
Completely agree for the starting lineup. I think turner has to come off the bench as the backup pg. i think his peak in this league will be as a sixth man playing near 30 mins a game. He can be like manu ginobili or james harden, as he is worlds better with the ball in his hands than he is running off screens or playing catch and shoot off ball.
For the starting pf, id like to see thad but i also wouldnt mind lavoy allen getting the nod. He really impressed me in the playoffs and i really like his defense and i like his jump shot better than thads.
I still think unless turner jrue or bynum break out and become a star, the sixers are destined for mediocrity once again. I hope im wrong.
Yeah, this is a tough call. I find it hard to believe it won't be 10 deep to start. If I had to guess right now, I'd say Kwame is the odd man out if/when he trims it down (if the odd man out is a big). Otherwise, I guess one of the wings. I think Nick Young probably has the most potential to bury himself on the end of the bench by the all star break.
Didn't Doug pretty much forget about Lavoy in the second half of last season, as well? If I had to put money on an eight-man rotation going into the playoffs right now, it would be this:
Jrue
Turner
Wright
Richardson
Thad
Bynum
Hawes
Allen
Also wondering if we're going to see a decent amount of minutes w/ Turner playing a disgustingly undersized four. Something like Jrue, Richardson, Wright, Turner, Bynum.
There's been some talk of Wright playing the four in small lineups. He's about the same height as Thad (listed at 6'9 - one inch taller than Thad) but about 15 pounds skinnier. I also wouldn't mind having he and T. Young out there at the same time at the 3/4. Two athletic tweeners that don't give up size as a net.
Two things - Funny that you see Nick Young as burying himself on the bench by mid-season as I am on the opposite end here and think Nick Young will flourish here under Doug and feel that he is underrated defensively individually. Team defense? Don't have a read on that.
Second, I think we'll see a decent amount of minutes with Turner playing point whether at backup PG or point forward. The only so-called 'small lineup' I can see Doug going with is Thad at the four or Dorell Wright, and Thad having played the four almost all of Doug's time as coach can't really be considered 'small' I guess. But it is when you consider our unusual plethora of bigs this year and their heights'.
Top 9:
NOT BRAND
NOT IGUODALA
NOT WILLIAMS
NOT MEEKS
NOT VUCEVIC
NOT BATTIE
NOT NOCIONI
NOT CRAIG BRACKINS
NOT SAM YOUNG
Improvement with pepperoni is in the oven.
Sounds like you had a rough summer, Brian. Hope travails are history. Glad you're suitin' up again.
Thanks, appreciate it.
Pretty amazing that nine guys are gone from last year, huh?
Don't remember such change, ever. My esteem for Doug & Rod as evaluators has grown.
Shue had 5 holdovers from 9-win shipwreck in '73-'74 in his first season here; 8 new faces including Luther "Take It To The" Rackley, Toby "Toupeeless" Kimball and Larry "Boom Boom" Cannon. 14 win increase.
East is better than advertised. Sixers climb up ladder isn't guaranteed; interest is. Potentially a strong playoff team. Classic pieces - big beef, sharpshooters, ambition, some depth, vet coach - are in place. Youth & immaturity is both friend and foe though.
Correction: 16 win increase, to 25. Didn't mean to shortchange that motley crew.
Reminds me of when LB arrived. The team he started with in 97/8 only had one player remaining by the end of the following season. One way to stop losing is to get rid of the losers. Or in this case break free from medicocrity. Thad and Jrue are the only players that pre-date the Collins era.
So they're still going with "Passionate. Intense. Proud." as their tagline, huh?
Welcome back. I was wondering what was going on and hope that all is well now.
I'm hoping that Collins gets over his love affair with Hawes and goes with the following:
Bynum
Holiday
T. Young
Richardson
Turner
Wright
Brown
Allen
I'm beside myself that Collins is being delusional and thinking that Hawes can actually guard power forwards. He was too slow and unathletic to guard a lot of centers! In my mind, the only way that he should see any playing time is if Bynum gets hurt. This almost certainly won't be the case.
Nick Young has a reputation for not playing defense. I'm wondering how that's going to work with a defense first, second, and third coach.
I saw Wayns play a lot in college. He could be a find--a Kyle Lowry type but with less finishing skill but better shooting. Then again, Lowry had good teammates and Wayns had terrible ones. Wayns couldn't really play like a point guard because of this. It'll be interesting to see him apart from the stench that was Villanova's basketball team last season.
Actually nick young is a pretty good on ball defender. He played very well in the playoffs. His problem is that he jacks up too many bad contested shotsظ. If u got frustrated by lou will, just wait for young. Also young probably isnt great at defensivr rotating, but that can be fixed with good coaching. He hasnt had a good defensive coach his entire career.
Well, at least Nick Young won't dribble the air out of the ball. He's got that over Lou. Of course, as maddening as Lou was, he was really efficient (at least on the Sixers' scale of things). Young doesn't dribble much at all, but he will take terrible shots if you give him the ball in less-than ideal situations.
The biggest thing this year will be if collins can win over bynum. Bynum is a notorious head case who even phil jackson, a master at dealing with egos, struggled to control. Doug collins isnt so great at dealing with those types. But who knows, maybe bynum has matured.
I'm going to give Bynum the benefit of the doubt on everything that went down in LA. It's really a different situation for him here. He isn't playing in anyone's shadow. He should get the ball a ton. I think most of the issues had to do with him being the third or fourth option on offense. I'm sure he'll make mistakes here, but I'm forgetting about the baggage until it rears its ugly head in Philly.
It’s good to have our fearless leader back. I’m dreading Holiday’s agent demanded Eric Gordon money, and saying it’s the going rate for an elite second option. Has anyone heard Evan Turner’s recent quips on Sixers.com. It sounds like Turner wants to make up for lost time for having to come off the bench for his first couple seasons in the NBA. Perhaps Turner envisions himself in Iggy’s old point forward role and running the offence...
http://www.nba.com/sixers/video/evan-turner-practice-1082012
Here's the link to Turner's interview...
Welcome back Brian!
The lineup that i would like to see is:
Holiday/Turner/Wright/T.Young/Bynum + N.Young/Richardson/Allen/Moultrie
The lineup i expect to see however is this one (9.5 man rotation):
Holiday/Richarson/Turner/Hawes/Bynum + N.Young/T.Young/Wright/Allen + Brown as a superspecialist appearing in half of the games.
Turner had line of the day. Asked how Nick Young likes getting the ball, Turner replied, "Nick, in certain situations, wants it everywhere."
Sixers story: Bynum eyes opening return:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/sports/sixers/bynum-eyes-returning-for-opener/article_d1957900-01d0-5069-88f9-6630809dc98f.html
If you haven't seen it, here's my video of Andrew Bynum shooting 3s with Turner and rebounding for his teammates prior to Saturday night's scrimmage. Over 18,000 views so far:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/blogs/sports_columnists/tom_moore/bynum-on-court/youtube_713426eb-5fb6-56b7-8422-4986040774ce.html
Turner Monday: "I'm glad I get to play. I’ve really been off for two years. I’ve got time to make up (and) get my rhythm back. Fitting in, playing situational minutes for two years, it takes a toll on your game. I’ve got to find my niche."
What?
ballhog ready ego trippin?
So glad you're attempting to get back into the swing of things, Brian. Your knowledge and insight particularly is valuable to us peons floating about in Sixer land. This could - more than likely is going to - be the biggest Sixers season in many years and to have you hopefully blogging it could make it even more memorable.
Sixers notes (with photo): Evan Turner: 'I've really been off for two years'
http://www.phillyburbs.com/sports/sixers/turner-i-ve-really-been-off-for-two-years/article_feab033f-cf09-5298-9d48-e2dd501ef36e.html
Hey Brian,
I think any chance of Turner coming off the bench is a large Negative.
Yeah, I don't think it's going to happen either, unless he plays his way there. Think he's being handed the start at the three.
I think the chances of him playing his way to the bench are fairly high, maybe even before the 10 game mark.
Welcome back dude, this is my favorite site for Sixers talk and I'm looking forward to a new season.
9 man rotation:
Jrue, J-Rich, ET, Spencer (vomit), and Bynum
Thad, Lavoy, Nick Young, Wright, and Brown (early in the season, to keep Bynum healthy and fresh).
Ivey and the rookie from Nova will get spot minutes, and Moultrie won't play until the second half of the season.
Backlash aside, do you think Evan Turner would be better suited to help the team at backup PG?
I don't really like him as a pg, but I think it's pretty clear that's the role the team needs him to fill. I haven't seen the rook play, but unless he's a savant, Turner's really the only other guy on the roster you can trust to handle the PG duties.
That news is very depressing, any chance we might miss Lou Williams ability to play backup PG?
Collins did say he wants ET to play backup PG. So baring foul trouble Doug can placate Turner as a starter and have him play backup PG...
In addition to serving as the starting SF, Evan Turner will also be tasked with backup PG responsibilities this season.Doug Collins said that it will be "rare" for both Turner and Jrue Holiday to be on the bench simultaneously. "I think what you will see is Jrue and Evan playing point guard with the second unit based on night to night." It's clear that Turner is going to get major playing time this season and could easily eclipse 30 minutes per game. Turner averaged 17 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 blocks in three starts at SF last season and should be a nice value pick in the middle rounds. Sep 13 - 10:17 AMSource: CSN Philadelphia
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1701/evan-turner
Aside from Bynum, I don't really see much of drop-off between he starters and the 2nd unit. With most teams your bench has a "6th man" who sort of carries the load. Last year Lou and Thad both filled that role effectively. But this year, if you put either ET or Jrue with some combination of players 6-9 (the non-starters) you should be able to have quite an effective unit without having to rely on too much iso.
for example-
ET
SwaggyP
Wright
Thad
Lavoy
That unit should be able to score and defend using normal sets and straight up man defense. Swap out ET and put in Jrue and they are even more dangerous (with some serious shooting and great balance.) Add to that the ability to thug it up (Lavoy and Kwame won't get pushed around by the Pacers' Goon Squad) and I think this is the deepest bench I can remember.
SwaggyP?
http://clipperblog.com/2012/06/13/the-most-swaggy-man-in-the-world/
http://clipperblog.com/2012/06/13/the-most-swaggy-man-in-the-world/
Great to have this place back Brian, even though it's hard to imagine anyone depressed after this offseason...
...and it's great to see that Doug is already getting to know the new guys: http://t.co/I5zgPcN
Welcome back Brian. Looks like everybody's psyched for this season. I am for sure.
Tough to come up with a 9-man rotation. Some of the suggestions above say 9 but list 10. I have a feeling Wayns is going to push his way into the rotation, but right now it's pretty clear from DC that he's not in, so I'll leave him out. What Jrue said was significant - Wayns plays chest to chest defense and doesn't let up. He brings something the Sixers need - a quick guard with some attitude. I'm thinking an Avery Bradley type. Give him a year. Undrafted players hardly ever become regulars, though.
Bynum
Hawes
Turner
Richardson
Jrue
Thad
Lavoy
Wright
Nick Young
The rookies won't play much to start the year, just spot minutes. If there's a change, it'll be Wans for Nick Young. Moultrie can rebound, so there's always a chance he'll push his way in. I hope it's to replace Hawes, but it'll probably be Lavoy.
All of a sudden we're stocked with shooters. I've been waiting years for this. Richardson, Nick Young, Wright, Hawes, Lavoy are very good to excellent shooters. Thad I'm not so sure about, but I think he'll be around 50% FG this year considering his ability to score in the paint. Not to mention Jrue, who might be the 2nd or 3rd best shooter on the team. (I'd say Richardson and Wright are 1 - 2.) Even Royal Ivey can shoot.
One ball. Nice problem to have, but still a problem. Who passes? Who defends? Who sacrifices? Who leads? I love a team stocked with shooters too, but shooters usually don't like or aren't especially adept at dirty work; often wear 3XL egos. This roster arrangement is exciting, but player deployment and head massaging will test Collins & staff. In summary, one ball, lots of jobs to divvy.
Baylor, West & Chamberlain lost 4 of their first 9. '71-'72 Monroe-welcoming Knicks, with holdovers Frazier, Lucas, Bradley, Debusschere, Barnett (fairly nice set of shooters) started their season 6-9 before getting it together.