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Jan 4
2010
1:02 AM

by Brian
http://www.depressedfan.com/img/sixersinwarmups010310.jpg
You can't blame Eddie Jordan for this win. He did just about everything humanly possible to give the game away, the Nuggets just simply ran out of gas in their last-ditch effort to take what was rightfully theirs. Sixers 108, Nuggets (minus Melo, Chauncey and Bird Man) 105. Wrap after the jump.

Before we get into the rotation chart and all that jazz, I'd like to point something out about this game. Jrue Holiday played a total of 11 minutes. In those 11 minutes, the Sixers allowed 15 points and scored 32. In the 37 minutes Jrue Holiday was not on the floor, the Sixers allowed 90 points and scored 76. The math breaks down like this:

With Jrue
  • The Sixers scored 2.91 points per minute
  • The Sixers allowed 1.36 points per minute

Without Jrue
  • The Sixers scored 2.05 points per minute
  • The Sixers allowed 2.43 points per minute

Typically, on/off statistics need to be viewed with some doubt, especially when you're talking about a small sample size. Tonight's game is the exception. The Sixers won this game, in large part, because of the defense Jrue Holiday played on Ty Lawson and Anthony Carter, plus the way he, a 19-year-old rookie, orchestrated the offense. Lou Williams was atrocious defensively tonight. He should be ashamed of himself. Willie Green was marginally better, let's call his defensive performance merely disgusting. As soon as Jrue was removed from the game, it was a foregone conclusion that the Nuggets would go on a massive run, the only question was whether there was enough time for Denver to come back from 13 down. The answer was no.

Since I just mentioned Holiday and Lawson in the same sentence, I may as well revisit the draft-night decision one more time. Instead of preaching to you, or re-stating my case, all I want to do is ask one simple question. When you look at this roster as a whole, which is a more pressing need: A point guard who can penetrate or a point guard who can stop penetration? That may be oversimplifying matters to a degree, but when you get right down to it, it's the key question. Which skill set is redundant, which skill set is glaring weakness?

Here's your rotation chart, a few more notes below:

game33rotations010310.gif
Jrue isn't the only one you can credit this win to, Rodney Carney (who was inexplicably benched against the Clippers) hit some big shots and defended. Jason Smith made a surprise appearance from the end of the bench and provided 7 points in 8 minutes. Elton Brand continued is excellent play, and even logged starter's minutes thanks to Sam Dalembert's foul trouble. (Check out where Brand ranks among PFs in PER, after his horrendous start). Allen Iverson's offense nearly made up for his defense in this one, as well. And most of all, we should thank the Denver Nuggets for missing 12 of their 29 free throws and turning the ball over 19 times, mostly they turned the ball over unprovoked. We couldn't have done it without you guys.

Notably absent from the "contributors" column were Thad Young (again) and Andre Iguodala who had a key turnover late, as well as splitting two pairs of free throws that could've iced the game. Willie split a pair of free throws as well, and could've actually cost the Sixers the game had Iguodala not lucked into an offensive board that hit the floor.

If you aren't convinced Eddie Jordan is a bumbling idiot yet, let me draw your attention to one sequence of events. With 15 seconds remaining and the Sixers leading by 2, Andre Iguodala was fouled, sending him to the line and stopping play. The lineup the Sixers had on the floor at the time was Allen Iverson, Willie Green, Andre Iguodala, Marreese Speights and Elton Brand. Iguodala hit the first shot and missed the second, with Ty Lawson grabbing the rebound. Let's freeze the game right there and see what's on the floor.

Lawson has the ball with Kenyon Martin, Nene, JR Smith and Aaron Afflalo on the floor with him and 15 seconds left on the clock. If George Karl doesn't call a timeout, the Sixers will have Willie Green on the ball, Allen Iverson on JR Smith, Andre Iguodala on Aaron Afflalo, Marreese Speights on Kenyon Martin and Elton Brand on Nene. In other words, mismatch, gross mismatch, good matchup, mismatch, size mismatch.

Jordan should've used the whistle to get his defensive substitutions in during the timeout. He got bailed out, luckily, by either George Karl or the rookie point guard who didn't realize which players were on the floor for Philly. The smart play for Denver in that situation is to push the ball up the floor and convert what would've surely been an easy opportunity to either tie the game or draw within one point. Instead, Lawson called the timeout.

So now Jordan gets a do-over. This is the lineup he decides to go with:

  • Green on Lawson (terrible mismatch)
  • Carney on Smith (fine)
  • Iguodala on Afflalo (fine)
  • Jason Smith on Kenyon Martin (speed and strength mismatch)
  • Brand on Nene (size mismatch)

Forget about the mismatches for a second and think about what's happened in the game to this point. Ty Lawson has proven he can beat every single Sixer off the dribble except Jrue Holiday. Holiday stuck with him on one drive and stuffed his shot, rode him so hard to the baseline another time that Lawson wound up in the first row of seats after making a desperation pass, the rest of the time Jrue was on him, he didn't even bother trying to get into the lane. Yet Jordan chose Willie Green as his "defensive stopper," wouldn't Bob Cooney be proud. Needless to say, Lawson got the ball, drove straight to the hole and hit a layup, on what should've really been a three-point play, considering Jason Smith hacked him.

This exact same scenario came up about 11 seconds late on the game clock. Jordan made the same folly in not making the substitutions during the free throws (twice, first Green shot, then Iguodala). Again, Denver called a time out, though they had no choice this time, considering the time left on the clock. This time, Jordan went with the following matchups:

  • Green on Lawson (again)
  • Jrue on Afflalo (luckily, this is where the ball wound up and Jrue contested the three, forcing a miss)
  • Carney on J.R. Smith
  • Iguodala on Kenyon Martin (I have no idea why)
  • Jason Smith on Nene (which was immaterial)

Now here's my question to you. Wouldn't the worst AAU coach in the country know to get Jrue on Lawson, Carney on Afflalo and Iguodala on Smith for both of those possessions? I can't figure out if it's that Jordan simply doesn't care about defense or that he's just the dumbest coach I've ever seen. There's no middle ground here, it has to be one or the other.

Player of The Game: I'm giving it to Brand and Jrue. Brand's offensive numbers were impressive (7/11 for 16 points), but his defensive numbers were even better. 7 defensive boards, 3 blocks and really some top-notch post defense on Nene on a couple of key possessions. Jrue only shot 1/3 from the floor, grabbed 3 boards, handed out 3 assists, blocked 1 shot, completely disrupted everything Denver was trying to do on offense and ran sensible offensive sets that resulted in open looks for his teammates time and time again. My favorite play of the night was a pick-and-pop he ran with brand on the left elbow. He ran his man right into the solid screen sent by Brand, drew both defenders with him down the lane, then hit Brand with a perfect pass in the chest at the foul line. When the wing defender collapsed on Brand, he dished to a wide-open Carney on the wing for an open three that Carney drained. You couldn't draw it up any better than that.
Team Record: 10-23
Up Next: Aaron Burr and company, on Tuesday at the Wach.

Back when this road trip began I said if the Sixers finish 3-3 we're collectively screwed. Well, we're screwed. This franchise, from Stefanski on down, is desperately clinging to hollow wins like life preservers, no matter how high the mountain of evidence against Eddie Jordan piles. For the record, even with the exemplary effort (mostly by bench warmers in Eddie Jordan's mind) the Sixers still performed pretty pitifully on the defensive side of the ball. They allowed the Denver Nuggets without their two best offensive players, by a large margin, to compile a 109.23 offensive efficiency rating. In other words, this Nuggets group performed to the level of the 9th-best offensive team in the league.

Wins like this don't warm the heart. They don't show developing harmony and effort, nor do they show the team is learning how to close out games. Wins like this do nothing but distract from the tremendous problems this team has, namely, its head coach. As far as I'm concerned, all three of the wins on this trip fall into that category.

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As always, great analysis Brian.

I couldn't agree more that the Sixers need to give Jrue much more playing time to develop him. Unfortunately, he's on a team with a horrible coach that will probably scar him and force him into poor defensive habits.

Eddie Jordan isn't a bad defensive coach because he doesn't stress defense. He's a bad coach because he doesn't understand it. He's never been a defensive-minded coach simply because he doesn't know how to win games that way. The only way EJ knows how to win games is by outscoring the opponent without any regard for defense.

It feels like EJ's strategy these days is -- when the Sixers go on a good run and are up, he simply says:

"We got a lead. Let's put Dalembert in!"

And when the Sixers are down, he goes:

"Let's put Louie Williams and Speights in!"

This strategy might work sometimes but you can't do that in every situation.

Anyways, I wish the Sixers had a real coach...it'd be so much more fun to watch and with the talent on this team, we'd give the first round opponent a very interesting and competitive matchup.

I fear that Stefanski knows (too late) that Jordan is an idiot but simply cannot fire him without losing his own job. Unable to go to Big Ed and ask for a do-over, he has to watch this mess and pray for miracles. If he doubles down by trading to suit the moron he hired, we are all in big big trouble.

"When you look at this roster as a whole, which is a more pressing need: A point guard who can penetrate or a point guard who can stop penetration?"

The latter, all things being equal, but I'd also take the really good player over the pretty good player and build my roster around really good players instead of saying, "well, I already have Lou Williams and Willie Green, so clearly I need to draft a ball-stopper to play alongside them, not another guy who can penetrate." It's pretty clear that Ty's going to be a better player than Lou Williams down the line if he isn't already, to say nothing of Willie Green. Now whether Ty will be a better player than Jrue 3 years from now, I don't know, but I wouldn't say that you don't draft Lawson because we already have people who do what he does well, as those guys aren't very good players. Now on the other hand, if you were trying to pick between two swingmen, one of whom is a great finisher and defender, the other of whom has more of a long-range and in game, then yes, you pick the latter because Iguodala is good enough of a player that you don't draft guys who replicate his skills and bring nothing new to the table. But if you can find a better version of Lou Williams in the draft, you take him and worry about getting rid of Lou later.

I personally think any team should look more for the unique player who can defend against the growing trend in the league than the dime-a-dozen player who can perform the act offensively.

I also think the Sixers wouldn't be any better right now if they had Lawson playing 30 minutes a night for them. They'd still be a team that couldn't defend anyone, thought they'd probably be moderately improved offensively. If Jrue was playing 30 minutes a night, however, I think you'd see improvement on the defensive end without much of a drop-off offensively.

If we had a coach who knew his ass from his elbow, we'd be building our team around what Jrue, Iguodala and Brand bring to the table defensively.

I agree Brian. How many point guards can effectively limit penetration the way Jrue does? It's a rare talent these days. I think Greg Popovich, Phil Jackson, etc would like to have a player like that on their team.

We know Larry Brown would. Then again, he would never be caught dead playing a rookie.

That myth really doesn't hold up all that well. he's played kids as much as your average coach.

Have you run the 'eddie jordan rookie' numbers ever to see if that myth holds up?

I wrote a post on how he's handled rookies and young players right before the season started, I think. If memory serves, he's never really developed a young player.

I reemmber, but what Derek did when he disproved the 'brown doesn't play rookies' theorem was to compare minutes of rookies brown had to rookies at 'equal' draft pick over history...basically brown plays rookies about the same as any other coach for spot they were picked was what Derek found.

I'm curious to know if same thing holds true for Jordan

http://www.rufusonfire.com/2009/12/18/1207073/larry-browns-young-players-in-the

This doesn't include his time with the Bobcats. In my opinion, Augustin's minutes were low.

If Brown's approach really is to give playing time based on ability, I tend to agree with his philosophy. A lot of people think that young players should be given playing time for experience's sake. I think practicing with legit starters and watching them on the court can be a good learning experience too. Rookies should be given court time, but to me, 25+ minutes a night is unnecessary unless deserved.

Look at that list. In 7 years there's 7 first or second year players who played 20+ minutes per game.

Now compare that with their draft position, and the average playing time players at that draft position have.

I'm at work, and don't have the time to run through all the numbers again. Nor do I really have the interest in doing at, as it's an old argument. but outside of Larry Hughes, the vast majority of those players were selected after pick 20. The fact that they got the playing time they did shows that Brown is willing to play young players if he believes it will benefit the team.

Just to further expand on this, what his post was sorely missing was where these players were drafted, and how much the average player at those positions plays in their first two years.

Of that list of players he used as "damning evidence" that Larry Brown doesn't play young players (some on that thread even used as proof that he hurts their development), exactly THREE of those players were drafted before 20, one of which includes colossal bust Darko (Larry Brown was on record as saying he would have selected Carmelo if Dumars didn't override him).

Three players in the top 20.

8 players in that list were undrafted free agents, another 8 were second round picks. Using Ira Bowman and Jabari Smith in a post detailing how Larry Brown doesn't play his young players doesn't really add much to an argument.

Ok thanks for doing the leg work. How did this myth start?

I don't know that good point guards are that common. Little guards who can score, yes. I just don't think it's such an obvious choice, not when Ty is playing this well.

I would have been happy with either on draft day and I feel the same today. The Jrue vs Ty debate is probably the least of this team's worries.

This team's identity should be a scrappy defensive team but Eddie Jordan obviously disagrees. If Larry Brown, Pops, or Sloane were to coach this team, I guarantee you the starting the lineup would be this...............PG-Holiday, SG-Iverson, SF-Iguodala, PF-Brand, C-Dalembert.

In the last 3 wins E.J. has played Jrue, Speights and Thad an average of 45 total minutes per game.

What exactly are the priorities of this team? Those 3 players should be developed and evaluated. Marginalizing them is shortsighted.

BTW, click "centers" on that PER league leaders chart. #4 is...

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deepsixersuede replied to comment from tk76 +/-

tk76, same mixed signals as usual; I liked it better when E.S. told the coach what to do. By the way, speaking of defense, where is this team without Sam, I hate to say, and a]what kind of offers does he draw when we let him off the books and b]if he comes back for 5 to 6 mill. per , would ya? 6 pts., 8 reb., 2 blocks in 24 min. is what Portland just got for the #1 overall pick just about.

Nazr Mohammed?

Knew we'd regret that trade

;)

And #5 is?

If that's not proof of how offensively skewed this number is i'm not sure what is :)

Well at least whatever happens from here, this team got 10 wins.

Yippee?

Is there any way to get a breakdown of the team's performance this season when the backcourt is either ai/lou, green/ai, or lou/Green? The AI/lou backcourt is an absolute joke defensively, and it also seems like a waste on offense because they do so much of the same things.

Derek has tools to do this at his site, Phillyarena.com. I believe you can do pair +/- at NBA.com as well.

Yup.

(unfortunately I'm a bit behind on entering the rotation data. Give me today and I'll have it up-to-date).

I have the most recent rotation chart on my computer at home. I was curious about this heading into last night's game, and actually the Lou/AI3 back court was in the positives, I believe. Need to double check, maybe I can get my wife to email me the spreadsheet and I'll respond later.

OK, here we go:

AI/Lou - 97 minutes, -3
AI/Green - 45 minutes, +/- 0
Lou/Green - 123 minutes, -7
Lou/AI9 - 352 minutes, +10
Willie at the point w/ anyone at SG - 251 minutes, -66
Jrue/AI3 - 72 minutes, +18
Jrue/Willie - 205 minutes, +24
Jrue/Lou - 41 minutes, -28
Jrue/AI9 - 85 minutes, -49

Any other combos you want? You can check out the data by going to depressedfan.com and clicking on 2009-2010 rotations on the black bar in the middle column of the page. You can also click here to download the spreadsheet.

I am shocked how Jrue/AI9 is that bad. I like the potential of Jrue/AI3 though.

89 minutes is awfully small.

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eddies' heady's replied to comment from Alvin +/-

Not too shocking when considering neither's shooting prowess.

Kate is amazing. Here is her latest quote from the coach:

"“The will and determination to win was at an all-time
high, to win on this floor,” said Sixers coach Eddie Jordan. Only minutes after the game, Jordan appeared out of breath.
How did he assess this road trip? “My heart is still beating like a rabbit running across the field,” Jordan said. “I haven’t really thought about it. I’m happy for our team; I’m proud of them. And we’re just beginning, I hope, to go uptown.”

He is speaking like he just beat the Denver Nugget team that had their complete team. The Denver Nuggets were a Developmental Team last night. Were missing 3 of the their key players.

The three teams the sixers beat on the road trip were all missing at least 2 key components weren't they?

Yup, and last night they were playing with two days off, against a team that played the night before in Utah, missing their two best players, by a large margin.

Uptown, indeed.

Every win feels like a punch in the nads from Eddie Jordan...this sucks.

"all I want to do is ask one simple question. When you look at this roster as a whole, which is a more pressing need: A point guard who can penetrate or a point guard who can stop penetration?"

a 6-4 guard who can defend and better court vision or a 6-0 (5-11?) guard who can score


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