Back in February, I wrote a
post detailing how the Sixers had done in clutch situations to that point in the season. Now I've updated the numbers, so we can look at how they did in the latter part of the year. Short answer: much better during their 6-week hot streak, as poor as ever recently.
To review, I define three different levels of clutch situations as follows:
- Clutch: the possession begins with the scoring margin at
5 points or fewer and ends with 5 minutes or less on the clock (4th
quarter or OT)
- Super-Clutch: the possession begins
with the scoring margin at 3 points or fewer (one possession) and ends
with 2 minutes or less on the clock (4th quarter or OT)
- Ultra-Clutch:
the possession begins with the scoring margin at 3 points or fewer and
ends with 24 seconds or less on the clock (4th quarter or OT)
At the time of the post (Feb. 3), the Sixers had gone 9-15 in games in which clutch situations occurred. Subsequently, coinciding with their overall good play in February and early March, the Sixers then went 8-4 in the next 12 games in which clutch situations occurred. But since that time, they've gone 0-5, blowing the last 5 close games. Overall, clutch situations occurred in exactly half of the Sixers' games, during which they went 17-24. In blowout (low-pressure) games, the Sixers were 24-17.
Now let's look at the final numbers more closely. First the team comparison.
|
Clutch |
Super-
Clutch |
Ultra-
Clutch |
|
PHI |
OPP |
PHI |
OPP |
PHI |
OPP |
| 2PM |
104 |
100 |
29 |
33 |
6 |
8 |
| 2PA |
237 |
203 |
78 |
60 |
21 |
14 |
| 3PM |
25 |
28 |
6 |
15 |
2 |
7 |
| 3PA |
88 |
75 |
25 |
36 |
9 |
15 |
| EFG% |
43.5 |
51.1 |
36.9 |
57.8 |
30.0 |
63.8 |
| FTM |
103 |
135 |
49 |
74 |
29 |
57 |
| FTA |
131 |
168 |
59 |
84 |
36 |
63 |
| FT% |
78.6 |
80.4 |
83.1 |
88.1 |
80.6 |
90.5 |
| TS% |
50.4 |
59.5 |
48.5 |
69.6 |
51.3 |
82.9 |
| ORB |
59 |
49 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
| DRB |
112 |
145 |
29 |
51 |
5 |
16 |
| TRB |
171 |
194 |
51 |
71 |
16 |
26 |
| AST |
60 |
61 |
19 |
19 |
3 |
7 |
| PFL |
54 |
48 |
20 |
12 |
9 |
1 |
| IPF |
34 |
25 |
24 |
18 |
23 |
17 |
| STL |
26 |
19 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
| TOV |
41 |
50 |
15 |
13 |
7 |
2 |
| BLK |
18 |
14 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
| PTS |
386 |
419 |
125 |
185 |
47 |
94 |
| POS |
379 |
363 |
130 |
130 |
49 |
55 |
| RTG |
101.8 |
115.4 |
96.2 |
142.3 |
95.9 |
170.9 |
As I noted in February, these numbers are astounding. The more pressurized the situation, the worse the Sixers play (both offense and defense) and the better their opponents play. I still can't get over the 90% collective foul-shooting of Sixer opponents in Ultra-Clutch situations, a number that was even higher before the lowly Pistons went 2-of-4 on Wednesday. The rest of the numbers speak for themselves, though it's worth calling attention to the fact that the Sixers have drawn exactly one non-intentional foul in Ultra-Clutch situations all year (Iguodala drew it vs. the Kings), while they have fouled the opposition 9 times.
Below are the individual numbers for the three types of clutch situations. The Sixers' 7 most prominent performers are included, who have played about 90% of the Sixers' clutch time minutes (though Hawes has played more recently). Comments follow below the tables.
|
Clutch
|
|
AI |
EB |
JH |
JM |
TY |
LW |
ET |
| 2PM |
19 |
21 |
16 |
5 |
18 |
9 |
9 |
| 2PA |
48 |
44 |
35 |
5 |
35 |
29 |
25 |
| 3PM |
2 |
0 |
6 |
9 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
| 3PA |
18 |
0 |
18 |
17 |
0 |
25 |
1 |
| EFG% |
33.3 |
47.7 |
47.2 |
84.1 |
51.4 |
38.9 |
34.6 |
| FTM |
18 |
5 |
17 |
14 |
4 |
26 |
15 |
| FTA |
27 |
6 |
20 |
15 |
7 |
31 |
18 |
| FT% |
66.7 |
83.3 |
85.0 |
93.3 |
57.1 |
83.9 |
83.3 |
| TS% |
39.8 |
50.4 |
54.2 |
89.2 |
52.5 |
50.3 |
48.6 |
| ORB |
5 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
12 |
4 |
3 |
| DRB |
22 |
23 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
6 |
7 |
| TRB |
27 |
37 |
13 |
10 |
26 |
10 |
10 |
| AST |
17 |
5 |
19 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
2 |
| PFL |
5 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
| IPF |
4 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
9 |
4 |
| STL |
7 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| TOV |
9 |
3 |
11 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
| BLK |
4 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| PTS |
62 |
47 |
67 |
51 |
40 |
68 |
33 |
|
Super-Clutch
|
|
AI |
EB |
JH |
JM |
TY |
LW |
ET |
| 2PM |
9 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
| 2PA |
26 |
11 |
11 |
0 |
11 |
10 |
6 |
| 3PM |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
| 3PA |
3 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
0 |
8 |
1 |
| EFG% |
31.0 |
63.6 |
15.4 |
64.3 |
63.6 |
30.6 |
28.6 |
| FTM |
11 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
15 |
9 |
| FTA |
13 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
19 |
12 |
| FT% |
84.6 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
83.3 |
100.0 |
78.9 |
75.0 |
| TS% |
41.8 |
67.3 |
27.1 |
72.6 |
65.6 |
49.3 |
52.9 |
| ORB |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
| DRB |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
| TRB |
6 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
| AST |
6 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
| PFL |
2 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| IPF |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
| STL |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| TOV |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| BLK |
3 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| PTS |
29 |
16 |
8 |
14 |
15 |
26 |
13 |
|
Ultra-Clutch
|
|
AI |
EB |
JH |
JM |
TY |
LW |
ET |
| 2PM |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 2PA |
13 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
| 3PM |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
| 3PA |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
| EFG% |
23.1 |
66.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
42.9 |
0.0 |
| FTM |
5 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
9 |
6 |
| FTA |
6 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
12 |
8 |
| FT% |
83.3 |
- |
100.0 |
83.3 |
- |
75.0 |
75.0 |
| TS% |
35.2 |
66.7 |
53.2 |
68.7 |
100.0 |
61.1 |
54.3 |
| ORB |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| DRB |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| TRB |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
| AST |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| PFL |
1 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
| IPF |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
| STL |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| TOV |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| BLK |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| PTS |
11 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
15 |
6 |
Comments:
- Since there were so few Sixers made baskets in Ultra-Clutch situations this year, we can review them all: Iguodala scored 3 times in isolations (twice vs. the Celtics, once vs. the Warriors), Brand scored on two jumpers (once assisted by Lou vs. the Wizards, once in an isolation vs. the Pistons), Thad scored on a tip-in off an Iguodala missed lay-up, and Lou scored on two 3-pointers (one off a pass from Iguodala on an in-bound play vs. the Bobcats, the other the desperation heave vs. the Kings).
- There has been a big shift in passing stats in the clutch since the original post. At the time (2/3), Iguodala was at 9 assists to 1 turnover, but since then he's gone 8/8. In February, Jrue was at 8/9, but since then he's gone 11/2.
- Jrue's shooting in the clutch, on the other hand, has gotten worse (was 13 of 28, finished 9 of his last 25 for 22 of 53 overall), but he's still one of the better shooters on the Sixers in clutch situations. However, he's horrendous once the situation becomes Super-Clutch (2 of 13, team worst 15.4 eFG%).
- Thad and Brand remain the most reliable clutch shooters, though both fell off slightly over the 2nd-half of the year. I continue to believe the Sixers' best option at the end of the game is for one of them to finish off someone else's penetration.
- Meeks compiled some excellent shooting numbers for Clutch situations, but he also hasn't done much in Super-Clutch and Ultra-Clutch situations, and he's coming off a memorable failure (the missed open corner 3 vs. the Knicks).
What does this portend for the Miami series? I'm not sure, though it's good that Jrue got some repetitions and they actually have been trying to run non-isolation plays more recently. I think I'd be pretty happy if they get to the point where clutch situations occur, because in all likelihood that would mean that Iguodala and Lou are back and playing well.
Raw data should be included below (click to download), your comments welcome as always.
Clutch spreadsheet
Clutch play-by-play
Thanks to Statman for this great look at a season's worth of (mostly) disappointment in tight games. We'll continue the positional breakdown in a couple of hours with the small forwards and then PFs and Cs will drop later in the afternoon. Check back early and often and leave your thoughts in the comments.
Wow. Outscored 2-to-1 in ultraclutch situations. That's unreal. As for the opponent's free throw percentage, do you think they do a bad job of forcing the ball away from the other team's best free throw shooters when they're intentionally fouling late in games?
I think the Sixers are no worse than average at forcing the ball away from the opponents' best FT shooters at the ends of games. They've just been incredibly unlucky in opponent FT shooting in the clutch. A 75% shooter has slightly better than a 50-50 chance of hitting two free throws, but the Sixers have seen players like Dalembert (73%), Al Thornton (75.7%), Blatche (77.7%), Marc Gasol (74.8%), Zach Randolph (75.8%, made 6 straight), and Wall (76.6%, made 5 straight) step up to the line in Ultra-Clutch situations and not miss. Prior to the last game of the season, opponents had hit on 93% of 57 free throws in Ultra-Clutch situations, which is better than sending Steve Nash (91%) to the line every time. This isn't to excuse the Sixers' late-game play, which has been decidedly poor all year, but they have been unlucky as well.
Maybe the odds will even out in this series. Wade and LeBron will brick a bunch of free throws and hand us a game or two at the line :)
Wouldn't be the first time for Lebron in the playoffs ;)
Thanks Statman for putting in the work to compile the data. I only wish it was more encouraging.
IMO the biggest flaw and biggest need for this team is a big who can run the P&R effectively late in games. That would put more stress on the defense, forcing them to start rotating. This should make everyone else's job easier.
I'm not sure the Sixers have that guy on the roster. Brand runs a pick and pop- which does not force the defense to rotate. Thad is more of a pick and isolate player. He gets the pass and faces up in isolation. Again, the defense does not need to rotate like on on a classical P&R.
Speights is their only real P&R guy. And he is not very good and does not see the light of day in clutch time.
I can think of one P&R the Sixers ran in this situation. It wound up w/ Thad rolling to the hoop wide open and Jrue firing a pass off the backboard :(
I though that was a decent play. The problem was that Jrue let himself get pushed too far away, and tried to make the pass from nearly half court. Since the Sixers lack a "roll" threat it allows defenses to show hard on the ball handler.
Half court? Were we watching the same play? I don't think he was even at the three point line.
I was exaggerating- but I see to remember Jrue as being right near the time line. I can't go back and watch it again because I don't have league pass.
I'm going to focus on the "wide open" part and hope that the coaching staff does too. I think it's more important than anything else the Sixers do to improve their late-game play: run plays with multiple options.
I think we didn't pay enough attention to it throughout the year, but as it turns out a P&R big should be at the top of "how to improve list". Instead we've talked a lot about spacing, rebounding, shot blocking and "clutchness" and some of them aren't that much of a problem.
As for a P&R big i do believe Thad Young has everything required for a great P%R partner to either Jrue or anyone else handling the ball (Turner should be pretty good at this too). What i don't understand is why they run that play very very rarely. In many ways Thad is a smaller, but faster version of Stoudemire and there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to produce in the same type of situations. I guess, shuffling Thad between both forward spots has played a part in him not being used to the P&R as much, but they should definitely work on the P&R with Thad in the summer (provided they actually resign him).
Yeah, the chemistry is not really their for Thad on the P&R. He seems to either get the pass really late (when he is all the way at the rim, like the TO against the Bucks) or he gets the pass when he is standing still at the top of the circle.
They need to work it so he is actually rolling like how Nash/Amare or Stockton/Malone did it.
sorry- their/there
The difference between running it w/ Thad and running it w/ a guy like Amare is that Amare is a big target on the roll. I think Thad kind of gets swallowed up by the defenders.
So part of that is a size thing... but I'm sure there have been plenty of effective P&R players that are not physically imposing. I can't remember many his size off the top of my head. Didn't Worthy run a lot of P&R?
Can't really remember. The league wasn't as big back then, though.
Yeah, when I think of the ideal P&R guys they all are a bunch more physical (both in size and style) compared to Thad. Whether we are talking Malone or Amare. Probably Griffin will develop into an ideal P&R guy.
Hmm do Statman or Brian have a link to a higher res versin of that picture? Pretty sure I am in it in the stands...
I don't, unfortunately.
Do we know what the league average is for EFG% in these situations?
I'd like to see the numbers for the most clutch team in the league this year also.
Great stuf - Thanks
or stuff
ugh
Awesome work Statman. God this really paints an accurate picture. Another thing that cracks me up is that I remember clearly all of our super-clutch baskets.