 Sixers Pick Up Three Options In what was little more than a formality, the Sixers exercised their 4th-year options on Thad Young and Jason Smith, and their 3rd-year option on Marreese Speights today. Effectively, locking them down for next season. This news isn't really news, there was never a doubt concerning Thad and Speights, probably not for Smith either. This does raise a question about what happens next summer, though. We'll dive into it after the jump. (Also, info on a fantasy hoops league)
Quick, name the last significant restricted free agent who has changed teams when the team who owned his rights wanted to retain his services. Two names come to my mind, Gilbert Arenas and Josh Childress. The Arenas situation led to a change in the CBA to close a loophole. Childress fled to Greece, and he's still playing over there. That's it. I start with that little tidbit because the Sixers will have a fairly big decision to make one year from now. Thad Young will be entering his fourth season with the team and the window for him to sign an extension with the team (before becoming a restricted free agent) will be closing quickly. Whether or not to extend a guy in this situation is a complicated question. On the one hand, Thad will only be 22 years-old, and should only get better. This may be the cheapest time to extend him. If you think back, the Sixers tried to extend Iguodala for roughly $55M at this point of his career, he turned them down, and wound up adding another $25M onto that price tag the following summer. On the other hand, extending Thad next summer will effectively do two things: #1, it will make him much harder to trade, should the Sixers decide to go that route. If they simply let him play under his rookie contract, his value in a trade is simply $2.9M. If they extend him, the average yearly value of the extension is his cap number in a trade, possibly up above $10M. #2, Any payroll flexibility is gone. As of this moment, the Sixers are on the hook for just over $65M next season, then $47M in 2011 (not including Thad and J. Smith cap-hold figures, nor the two first-round picks between now and then), then $44M in 2012. If they play their cards right, they could add another piece in the summer of either 2011 or 2012. If they extend Thad early, that option is pretty much off the table. They'll need to make trades to add any kind of significant player. A lot is going to depend on how Thad progresses between now and then. Let's take a look at a guy in the news, LaMarcus Aldridge. Portland just extended Aldridge for $65M over 5 seasons. Here's a comp of both Thad and Aldridge through their first two seasons. Aldridge actually didn't progress much from his second to third seasons. He's still a light-rebounding PF who prefers to shoot from the perimeter. Yet Portland felt comfortable tying up about 20% of the salary cap in him. Here's the question, if you are Ed Stefanski, would you opt for an early extension for Thad, would you take the chance that he'd progress in his fourth year and you'd wind up paying more for him as a restricted free agent the following summer (I'm completely discounting losing him as a restricted free agent, because it simply doesn't happen), or even risk losing him altogether after his fifth season as an unrestricted free agent? If you're interested in joining a fantasy hoops league with myself and some other readers, please e-mail ASAP and I'll get you an invite. Limited spots are available. It's a free league. 
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I'd extend him as I think taking a chance and paying him more (or much worse, letting him walk for nothing) would be very bad and could handcuff us severely or cause us to get nothing for a pretty good asset.
That being said, they need to see where he fits in on this team. He can't rebound enough to be a really effective PF (plus we have Speights anyway). Good comparison with Aldridge but if Thad stays a PF I think it would be bad for the team. If that were the case, I think he should be traded for either a SG or SF depending on where Iggy plays.
If Iggy does a good job going to SG and Thad continues his improvement more along the lines of his first year (and rebounds, passes and defends a little better) I think he could be an All-Star type talent and would be a good fit for the team. If he continues at last year's path (more Rudy Gay type) then I'd see if we could move him for something else.
The worst option is to let him walk as he is an asset we could get some value for but in that case it'd be better to have him extended as he'd have a more easily swappable contract (on the rookie contracts you can really only take back another rookie due to the matching salary clause of the salary cap).
If you extend, it's a tough trade because he becomes BYC, meaning you're sending out $10M (roughly) and you can only take back $2.9M (I believe). That's only for the first year, the following year it's even money in a trade.
As for letting him walk for nothing, that's not really a concern until he becomes an unrestricted free agent. It almost never happens that a team loses a restricted free agent they want to keep, but if you wait for restricted FA, you could wind up paying much more than if you had extended him early.
You're right.
I forgot about the base year issue. But I'd still extend him. The reason is, I think Thad could blow up easily (at least, scoring wise if he gets the shots) which would make him really expensive later on. Scoring leads to big paychecks even if it doesn't always lead to wins. If Thad starts doing all the other ancillary stuff (boards, passing and D) then keep him as he'd be a hell of an asset. If he winds up scoring and nothing else (like Gay) I'd move him. Someone will want him.
Agree on the scoring aspect. If he cracks the 20ppg threshold, even if his ancillary stats don't improve at all, someone is going to want to overpay him. I'd see what his number is next summer, and give it a long, hard look in relation to where the team is going. Iguodala's comfort at the 2 is probably paramount in the decision-making. If they can coexist at the 2/3, then I might extend him.
If there's a chance that you can use the wiggle room created by his caphold the following summer to significantly augment the roster before re-signing him (like they did with Iguodala/Brand) then I'd wait and just bite the bullet when he hits restricted free agency.
In terms of his offensive game, Thad's best comparison isn't Gay, who draws more fouls and is more aggressive overall. Right now, the player whom Thad resembles on offense, from the lack of foul-drawing right down to the smooth lefty hook, is Tayshaun Prince. At this point, Prince is a better passer and defender, but if Thad became a higher-scoring version of Prince, then extending him would be a no-brainer. But it's a big IF, whether Thad will ever defend as well as Prince. And this year, you can be sure a lot of teams will be going right at him, the way Orlando did in the playoffs.
It's also worth monitoring how well Thad and Iguodala continue to mesh. So far, they've had excellent chemistry, but as Thad develops in his career, he may want the ball more.
Here's a 4-way comp, Thad, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay and Tayshaun, through the first two seasons of each of their careers. Personally, I think Thad's numbers hold up to all of them, he actually had the most win shares in the group. Also noteworthy is the fact that he was the youngest of the group and he played for playoff teams both seasons.
I'm not sure who the best comp will be for him going forward, but this is a pretty solid group so far. Tayshaun's defense is really what defines him. Odom turned into a much better rebounder later in his career. Thad, I believe, has the most offensive potential of any of these players.
I wouldn't sign anybody not named Lebron, Bosh or Wade before the new CBA is settled.
The cap is going to go down for the next two years as well.
We overpaid for AI, really who else had the cap room to sign him.