I'm unbelievably tired of talking about losing. If I'm going to make it through the next 31 days in one piece, I need some kind of respite from what this season has been reduced to - counting losses. In order to try to maintain my sanity, I'm going to try to come up with something to root for as often as I can. First on the list: Jrue Holiday's three-point stroke.
When Jrue was drafted, the Sixers told us his jumper was not fundamentally flawed, simply that he needed reps to make his form consistent and the numbers would follow. I was a tad skeptical when I checked his college numbers (30.7%), even more so when I saw rushed jumpers from the kid, with what looked like poor balance early in the season.
Since then, we've witnessed a transformation. Jrue's shot has slowed down, his form has improved, his confidence has skyrocketed and the results have been nothing short of beautiful from three. The numbers really tell the story. Before he was moved into the starting lineup, Jrue was shooting a respectable 34.5% from three (20/58), slightly below league-average, but still a very good number considering my expectations for him in his rookie season. In the 25 games since he took over the starting PG spot, started getting regular minutes and sharing the floor with the starters more frequently, Jrue has shot 50% from three (27/54). All told, 47/112 is 42% and good for 11th in the league (among players who have attempted 100 or more threes).
For some statistical perspective, the Sixers haven't had a 40% three-point shooter (with over 100 3PA) since '06-07 when Kyle Korver did it. Korver was over 40% from '04-05 through '06-07, prior to him Aaron McKie was the last.
What does this mean going forward? Well, it could mean a great deal. If these numbers are legit, and we're nearing the point where the sample size is big enough to say it isn't merely a fluke, having a point who's a serious threat to stretch the floor opens up a host of options at other positions. Iguodala at the two works a whole lot better when you have a one who can drain it from deep. If Jrue is a threat to knock down threes, when we get away from this ridiculous Princeton Offense, and start running some high screen and rolls, teams won't be able to simply bounce underneath. If they do, it's going to cost them three points. Coupled with Jrue's feel for the position and great passing skills, a deep jumper completes the picture of an ideal pick-and-roll PG. Skilled bigs who can roll to the hoop (and catch tough passes on their way), or step out to 18 feet and knock down a jumper will become that much better. Finally, if Jrue is a legitimate threat to hit threes going forward, Andre Iguodala will become a better offensive player. The lane will unclog, to a degree, opening it up for Iguodala to penetrate and, if need be, kick out to Jrue for a wide-open look.
So if you really can't bear to root for losses, and I don't really blame you if you can't, root for Jrue to keep getting his reps from three, and keep hitting them at a high rate. This may be most important on court development over the final 16 games. Keep it above 40%, Jrue.
That is what the rest of this season is about.
Losing every game and seeing Jrue become great.
If we can get a good coach (please don't get Collins) we all might have something to look forward too again. Iggy and Jrue are something to build around. Everyone else can be used to get more pieces to build a defensive running based team around them.
Yeah, I'm kind of pissed the 0-for-2010 storyline is dead. Kapono pisses me off.
Maybe he will start a dunk streak tonight?
True we can root for Kapono's first dunk in a game for his career.
Can we improve our P&R defense? Can we stop pentration, time and time again? Can we do a better job coming out to the 3 point line and hawking shooters? Can we do a better job following curls?
That's up to the players as much as it is up to the future coach. EB could be a small hole and part of a bigger problem with respect to developing team D identity. EB, thad, speights, even dalembert at times, and whoever our joke at SG is. Our defense is destined to drop off from the peak of last few seasons.
The peak of our team defense was actually under Cheeks when Brand was here, before cheeks got fired.
And he got hurt and played 27 games last year
plus his block rate and rebounding is down this year as opposed to two years ago when he was fully health
Point being, this group of players was able to defend efficiently, and defend the three efficiently. I need to see what they can do with some defensive coaching before I consider them a poor defensive group.
I'll play devil's advocate for a minute Brian. There's one flaw I see in Jrue's shot, it's a little slow. I think this does two things, one good and one bad. The good thing is that he rarely ever takes a bad shot because he has to be wide open to get it off. Still, he HAS to be wide open to get it off. I'd like to see some work off the dribble and shoot a little more. To the naked eye he has been very good shooting off the catch, but not as much with the dribble.
If he could be able to work of the screen and become a terror, and I think Billups is the best in the game at that, then it would free up options. Right now, I think Jrue's wide-open shooting is a great start, but he needs to prove he can do it as a ball-handler off the dribble. We're obviously not going to run him off screens. It's nitpicking, and I fully expect him to master the art of shooting off the dribble, but that's what I'd like to see.
"To the naked eye he has been very good shooting off the catch, but not as much with the dribble."
Catch and shoot: 44.9% raw, 63.8% adjusted
off the dribble: 36.9% raw, 39.3% off the dribble.
37% off the dribble is actually slightly above league average. His catch and shoot is just ungodly efficient right now, better than 94% of the league.
Hmmm, thanks for the stats, I guess the kid has been that good in all areas then. I just feel that he's shooting off the dribble more when someone kind of lay off of him or on a broken play. I want him shooting the ball off the pick and roll late in games as a major threat to the defense. I haven't seen that yet, but it's coming. At the end of games, he'll give other teams that sinking feeling that other big-time PG's give me now.
I can't think of a ton of jumpers off the dribble. The ones I do remember have come when he's caught the ball behind the three point line, pump-faked to clear a defender closing out on him, one dribble inside the line and then a jumper. Really good rhythm on the shot (even though I hate long two-point jumpers with a passion). I really can't remember many jumpers off the P&R.
I think that would prove why his stats are above average in that area. He doesn't shoot off the dribble as much as drive, and his off the dribble stuff leads into a jumper that's easy to get set for. They are obviously great shots, but he will need to do be able to do more off the dribble if he is the primary ball handler and the guy who stretches the defense at the same time. That would basically mean he has the total package, but finding a way to make yourself a good shot (and the threat of it) puts great pressure on the defense.
Seems to me that Elton needs to work on some agility drills. He loses balance and doesn't have the foot work down on those pick and rolls. Could also be that this hasn't been a point of emphasis during practices this year.
Sadly, I think it's equal parts laziness and complete lack of a plan on the coaching staff's part. Systematically, the Sixers don't set screens properly (Jason Smith set one nice pick last night) and they have no idea how to handle the pick-and-roll on the defensive end. The bigs don't show, or show very poorly creating a pointless double, or they just stay glued to their men.
Another thing that's lacking is fighting through screens.
Honestly, there's not even a plan on the pick and roll. It's embarrassing, and the players do something different every time. Except when guys like Lou or Willie get hung up on screens, that happens every time. They might be the two easiest guys to screen in the NBA.
If they're numbers one and two, Thad is number three. That guy sticks to screens like a fly on flypaper. Check it out tonight.
I always thought Dalembert did a good job of showing. He actually has the quickness to get back to his man tho, which is not exactly Brand's greatest strength.
Sometimes when Sammy shows it's a pointless double that really has no trap involved at all. He also doesn't get back to his man very quickly. This could be solved with coaching unfortunately Ayers has mangled the P and R almost as much as Thad's jumper.
Dalembert shows more than Brand, but then he gets completely lost. Sometimes I like watching the Hawks just to see how Horford does it. KG in his prime was probably the best.
Showing means you just need to slow him down, make sure he doesn't turn the corner and go right to the hole, or pull up right away for a jumper. You're basically slowing him down until his man can catch up, then you recover to your own man, quickly with your arms up to cut off the pass.
Doubling is a different animal altogether, and something you need to do with intense aggression to suffocate the guard so he can't hit the man who's open, because someone is.
Dalembert gets stuck between the two, usually. Which is really a bad place to be.
It really was a thing of beauty to watch old KG put his arms up when retreating. what a defensive force.
I realize Willie Green isn't the fans' favorite, but he's a pro and a quality guy. Why couldn't Jordan have come to him before Sunday's game and said that Green might not play because the coach was going to take a look at Jodie Meeks and Jason Kapono? Green had played in every other game this season in which he was healthy. Is that asking too much?
Did you talk to Willie? Was he shocked by the DNPCD?
WG is a class act (at least publicly.):
"Guard Willie Green didn't see any time as Jordan decided to go with Jason Kapono and Jodie Meeks as his guard subs. "I didn't know anything," he said, "but I was happy to see my teammates get some good playing time""
http://m.philly.com/phillycom/db_41061/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=mZcalsMe&storycount=99&detailindex=3&pn=2&ps=10&full=true#display
david beckham tore his achilles. he wants to return to playing soccer but judging by how elton brand has been doing since he injured his achilles, i would think beckham would be wiser just to call it quits and hang his boots up.
I'm glad to see Jrue hitting all of those 3's. As you said, it allows him to work better next to Iguodala.
But I don't see Jrue becoming a high volume 3pt shooter. His shots is probably best as a deterrent instead of a weapon, and his numbers will likely go down a ton if he really starts looking to shoot 3's.
In some ways it reminds me of Iguodala. His 1st 2 seasons he shot his career best percentage from 3pts by having good shot selection created by Iverson's drives (and wide open looks.) Then he started looking to create his own 3's and his numbers came crashing down:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/iguodan01.html
Rookie: .331 on 142 attempts
2nd year: .354 on 158 attempts.
So given Jrue is off to a better start, I see him more in the 34-35% range unless he stays very selective.
Jrue Holliday: The next Darrel Armstrong
Jrue Holiday, the next Gary Payton. you heard it here first.
Is it just me or Jrue starts to remind me a lot to a young Deron Williams. I've actually compared their numbers from their rookie seasons a while ago and they correlated extremely well. I think Deron Williams is probably his ceiling. As for worst case scenario i'd say jarrett jack...
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=willide01&y1=2006&p2=holidjr01&y2=2010&p3=jackja01&y3=2006
Hope you're right. Deron, as a 21 y/o rookie, put up nice numbers on a .500 Utah team, and really hit his stride by age 23.
But when you are talking rookie numbers you can probably find a ton of PG's with comparable stats.
Do you envision Iguodala as our SG or our SF for the future? As a SF I see Iguodala as the 5th best SF in the league
1. Lebron James
2. Carmelo Anthony
3. Kevin Durant
4. Gerald Wallace
5. Andre Igoudala
6. Paul Peirce
7. Rudy Gay
As a SG he would be 5th
1. Kobe Bryant
2. Dwane Wade
3. Joe Johnson
4. Brandon Roy
5. Andre Iguodala
6. Tyreke Evans
7. Monta Ellis
The question who is the better SF? Young or Iguodala?
And if Iguodala is the better SF, is Igoudala's salary worth the talent difference between him and Young?
One of them has to be traded this off season.
Thad's nowhere near that list for SFs, so whether Iguodala or Thad is a better SF isn't really a question at all. Iguodala clearly is, by a large margin. The question is if you play Iguodala at the 3, can you get more out of the SG position than you can get out of Thad at the 3 if Iguodala is your SG. If that makes sense.
Like this:
AI9 (SF) + replacement SG vs. AI9 (SG) + Thad (SF)
If you're talking about having to trade one of them, then you're talking about having to trade Iguodala. If you think Thad is the answer at the three, and Iguodala is not the answer at the two, then you do need to trade Iguodala. If your choice is to stick with Iguodala at the three and find someone else to play the two, then there's absolutely no urgency in trading Thad. He's cheap and he's fine coming off the bench for the next season (or two if you pick up his qualifying offer).
In that second scenario, Thad becomes expendable, but you don't need to trade him, because he's still on his rookie contract and not hurting your cap number.
Make sense?
It makes sense, but its good to trade Thad while his value is still high
Is his value really all that high right now? I'd think it'd be higher after a decent season under a decent coach. He's regressed this year under Jordan.