Heading into this series, it was clear the Sixers had a big advantage in their bench. Miami has a couple of specialists who play a role and little else. The Sixers have a ton of scoring firepower coming off their bench, even more now that Evan Turner has exerted himself. Let's take a quick look at how each bench has fared through four games, and talk a bit about what to expect in game five.
First, a quick look at the overall production of the benches.
In terms of gross production, the Sixers bench has far outpaced Miami's. They've scored 77 more points than Miami's backups, they've grabbed 8 more offensive boards, 15 more defensive boards, handed out 9 more assists, shot a better percentage from the field, three-point range and the line. In all the counting stats, they're dominating. Unfortunately, when you look at any kind of efficiency, both benches have been pitiful. Somewhat surprisingly, though, both benches have played similar minutes in the series (340 minutes for Sixers reserves, 324 minutes for Miami reserves).
On the Sixers side, Evan Turner is really carrying the bench. He's been unbelievable in his 69 minutes of action: 36 points on 28 shots, 13 boards, 3 assists and zero turnovers. Thad was very good in game one, he's been miserable since. Overall, Lou has been pretty bad in most areas, but his turnover rate is unbelievably low. Battie has given the Sixers some decent minutes.
Of course, when you're talking about the playoffs you're typically talking about trimmed rotations and a higher reliance on your starters for heavy minutes. Looking purely at bench production doesn't begin to tell the story after you get some data. What you really need to look at is how the team performs with certain lineups on the floor. Basketballvalue.com is tracking unit-specific data through the playoffs, let's check it out:
Sixers and
Heat. And just for kicks, check out this list of the
best lineups throughout the league during the playoffs.
The Sixers unit splits are pretty unbelievable. Their starting lineup of Hawes, Brand, Iguodala, Meeks and Holiday has an unbelievable +/- of +28 in just under 43 minutes. If you look a little closer, though (Click on "unit" to view a breakdown of that unit vs. other units over at BV.com), you'll see that the Sixers starters have outscored Miami's starters 97-60 in just over 40 minutes. The Sixers starters have been outscored 9-0 in 2.5 minutes against any other lineup.
It's not hard to figure out why. When Miami has Ilgauskus and Bibby on the floor, they're basically kickstarting the Sixers transition game. Those guys are slower than molasses. If This series was tied 2-2 right now, I'm pretty sure Erik Spoelstra would have to change up his starting lineup. I don't expect him to make that move tonight, though. If he was to switch it up, and the Heat still lost the game, he'd be answering a ton of uncomfortable questions. It would be seen as a panic move and even if it's the right move, I don't think he can afford to do it. I do, however, expect him to go to his bench much earlier if the Sixers get off to the same kind of start in game five as they did in games one, three and four.
The question isn't really what lineup will Spoelstra go with, I think it's pretty clear Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers will get the early nod, the question is how will Doug Collins counter, or maybe if he will counter early on or if he'll try to extend the minutes of his starters. The Sixers have tried
12 different lineup combinations against the Anthony, Bosh, James, Wade, Chalmers unit, and there's a definite pattern we need to pay attention to. When the Sixers have two bigs in the game (Brand and Hawes, or Battie and Brand or even Hawes and Battie), they've played Miami even (16-16 in 17 possessions), when they've gone small, with Thad at the four, they've been outscored 46-19 in 32 possessions. This is something Collins needs to look hard at. I think if Anthony and Chalmers are, in fact, the first two guys off the bench for Miami, Collins can't go with his knee-jerk reaction and bring Thad in for Hawes. He needs to either stick with Hawes and Brand up front, or sub in Battie for one or the other.
One other counter I'm hoping we'll see tonight is Collins going smaller than small. Miami has obviously figured out how to beat their small lineup with Thad at the four, but as we saw in game four, they didn't have as much success handling an even smaller lineup. Brand, Iguodala, Turner, Williams and Holiday. Spread them out and attack the hoop.
When the dust settles, if the Sixers are going to win, they're probably going to need two of Lou, Thad and Turner to turn in quality games off the bench, and the third guy can't be too much of a negative. That's probably the formula when you get past the specific unit matchups.
Yeah the disparity in the performance of different lineups has really been the central story of the series. What we are witnessing is a perfect example just how important matchups and fit are in the NBA and that just a collection of good/great players is not enough.
There are two thing i would like to see in game 5:
- Go really big. The one lineup we haven't seen at all is with Thad at SF, Brand at PF and either Hawes or Battie at C. The Heat have struggled with big lineups all season long and even though playing big is not our strength (actually it's a weakness) i think it's worth giving a shot at. The Heat are probably the only team in the league that can "outsmall" the Sixers and at the same time their defense against smaller teams is great.
- Give the ball to Turner when the traps come. Holiday has struggled with traps all season long. He will learn how to deal with it eventually, but for the time being i think the much bigger Turner has a better shot at passing out of them. I wouldn't go with Lou who won't turn the ball over but he will very likely take a bad shot or with Iguodala because his injury has clearly slowed him down and he is not much of a threat to drive.
I wouldn't go with Lou who won't turn the ball over but he will very likely take a bad shot or with Iguodala because his injury has clearly slowed him down and he is not much of a threat to drive.
WTF are you kidding me?!!! lou is you best option when miami traps. jesus you people irk the hell out of with with this anti lou crap.
This is not an anti-Lou post at all. The reason why Lou doesn't turn the ball over is because he has the ability and more importantly mindset to take a shot whatever the situation. Trapping him would just make him take very difficult shots, which is certainly better than turning the ball over, but it's not really a solution is it.
usually their trap comes right off the pick and roll so;
1 unless it's not Jrue playing the pick and roll, there's no way they won't try to trap him.
2. 50% chance that Turner won't be on the floor (most likely Meeks), the same time as Jrue. Even less if it's in the first half.
like the x and o's post, positioning is the way to discourage it.
Joel Anthony has been the x-factor of the series. I don't think I've seen a defender so successfully shut Thad down this year.
He has the rare combination of strength, quickness and shot-blocking needed to shut Thad down. The problem to me hasn't been Anthony shutting Thad down, but the Sixers inability to consistently punish the Heat for playing Anthony on the other end where Anthony is a complete zero on offense.
But overall yes Anthony's impact on the series has been huge.
Young: 'Great season still not over':
http://ow.ly/4HX07
(with new Iguodala video on the Sixers' unity)
Story: Sixers trying to overcome uphill struggle:
http://ow.ly/4HXje
(with video interviews of Holiday, Brand and Iguodala)
In a season where the local media (Smallwood, Fagan, Cooney) have been nearly as relentless in their criticism of Iguodala as the clueless fans who usually comment on their philly.com stories, it's nice to see one positive article. The timing is interesting, because if the Sixers lose tonight, he is the one who will get the lion's share of the blame. (The haters blamed him in 08-09, even when he averaged 21+ PPG, so you can imagine how vicious the criticism is going to be this year.)
Sixers are 10.5 point underdogs tonight. Who thinks they will cover? (I do.)
Good article. I don't recognize the byline, do you? Maybe it's a pseudonym because writing anything positive about Iguodala is verboten for Daily News and Inquirer beat writers.
I'll say the Heat don't cover.
Ha, it'd be funny if the writer used a pseudonym because he was afraid of the backlash from writing a positive article on Iguodala. But I do recognize the name of Marcus Hayes, who writes about all four major sports for the Daily News.
Hayes on Iguodala - a pseudo-cool 'Cuse dude proppin' up a pseudo-cool 'Zona dude. Style, man, style ... he digs AI9's. Applies timeworn "he's great but they don't understand" theme.
Now, back to the ballgame - where substance matters and "victims" are eliminated.
I think Iguodala, stylistically, is one of the dullest players I've ever seen. But on substance, he's pretty good.
Speaking of style over substance, JJG (you're not fooling anyone with your pseudonym of a pseudonym), while I hardly ever agree with the substance of what you have to say, your verbal style is one of a kind and often entertaining.
"The chondromalacia in Iguodala's right knee, a chronic condition that dates back more than 5 years"
Yeah, that does not sound good.
I've written before about previously durable players starting to break down after about 500 NBA games.
Chondromalacia patella, medical term for common condition known as "runner's knee", the softening or breakdown of cartilage under kneecap, joint discomfort typically short of anguish. One suggested treatment: ibuprofren, rest and mental strength exercises.
Yeah, he's definitely lacking toughness.
Yeah, I'm pretty familiar with the pathogenesis and management of the condition. It generally is brought on if your quads are disproportionately strong as compared to you inner thigh muscles. This relative imbalance pulls the knee-cap out of alignment, causing wear and inflamation under the knee-cap.
It is the kind of thing that can be minor and self limitted if it happens once. But it also can turn into a chtronic condition that saps your strength and explosiveness.
"That injury stole from him the effective midrange jump shot he developed during his brilliant gold-medal run with Team USA at the World Championships."
This sentence tells you all you need to know about Marcus Hayes. You all know that doesn't make a lick of sense. Hayes is unbelievably arrogant for a guy that has very little understanding about the NBA.
Other than his unbelievably smug delivery, he has a point. It is unfortunate that a large part of the fan base will focus on the poor playoff performance while completely disregarding the injury though.
We need to go smaller... Inception
ESPN has some good things to say about Iguodala:
Andre Iguodala -- Offense 65, Defense 95
LeBron James will tell you that only two players have averaged 14 points, five rebounds and six assists this season: himself and Iguodala. It's fitting that the two have gone head-to-head in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs because in many ways, Iguodala is LeBron Light, a wing player who impacts the game in so many ways on both ends of the floor.
Iguodala's reputation has swung like a pendulum over the past few season from underappreciated to overpaid back down to underappreciated again. Sure, he's been hobbled this season, but the 27-year-old still ranks as one of the best defenders in the league. According to 82games, his opponent PER is a league-best 8.8, which means he basically reduces his counterpart to Travis Outlaw-esque production. That's value. Iguodala's ability to guard multiple positions has also helped the Sixers play four points better per 100 possessions with the 6-foot-6 freak athlete out on the floor. He may not be a go-to scorer, but he doesn't need to be to have a major positive impact on the game.