By November 1st, a mere 63 days from now, Rod Thorn will have to make the first in a series of decisions on the young core of his team. The day after Halloween is the deadline for extension of players with three years in the league, still on their first-round rookie contracts. Jason Smith, Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young all meet the criteria.
I'm not worried about Hawes and Smith. They haven't even had Hawes on the roster for one game yet, and his red flags should preclude any foolish investments at this point. The same goes for Jason Smith, who's destined to be a minimum-contract guy, at best, for the remainder of his career.
If anyone has even an outside shot at getting an early extension, it's Thad. Personally, I think the odds are extremely slim. The third-year extension is typically saved for guys who are considered surefire stars in the league by their teams (Chris Paul, Kevin Durant for example. Deng and LaMarcus Aldridge would be examples of guys who got the third-year extension and perhaps the team wishes they waited the extra year). Still, there is a precedent, so I thought we'd take a look at some comparable players to Thad through their first three seasons in the league, and the length/value of the extensions they were given.
Here are
three comps for Thad. (click on the link to compare their numbers through their first three seasons.)
And three more.
Here are the contracts those guys signed, and when:
- Gay - 5 years, $82M (after his fourth season, extended)
- Villaneuva - 5 years, $37.5M (after his fourth season, free agent)
- Deng - 6 years, $71M (after his third season, extended)
- Dunleavy - 5 years, $45M (after his fourth season, extended)
- Granger - 5 years, $60M (after his third season, extended)
- Murphy - 6 years, $60M (not confident in this figure, can't find a link. Extension after third season, though).
It's a bit of a shock Thad stands up so well in those comps, I'm not sure if it says more about Thad's play (in a good way) or the other guys' (in a bad way), but if you were Thad's agent, you could easily put together a packet showing his production vs. other guys and make a case for a healthy extension. Of course, I'm not sure any of the other players regressed in each of their first three seasons (Gay
regressed big time in his third year), as Thad has.
As I said above, I'm not expecting any of these guys to sign an extension prior to November 1st, but I will be holding my breath a bit. Crazier things have happened with this franchise.
I always thought T.Outlaw was the best player to compare Thad to and if I'm his agent I look to get his money this year.
In case anyone missed it
http://www.thadyoung.com/
Cool site, much better than www.mospeezy.com
he's calling himself a Power Forward now i guess...
Its possible we will see more extensions this year as players want to avoid the uncertainty of being a FA heading into the lock-out. But on the flip side this might make teams less willing to deal.
I think what happens is the second part, owners are laying down the smack (or trying to) with this negotiation and while not verbalizing it, would tacitly collude to avoid signing extensions except to the most certain of stars (Durant for instance)
I don't think Thad's gonna see a contract extension come November 1 unless it's VERY team friendly.
That's my feeling as well. Maybe he takes a really cheap offer to beat the new CBA. My definition of really cheap is probably different than Thad's and the team's though. Like a 3-year, $10M extension would be a gamble worth taking.
I would like to see Thad improve some in defense, rebounding, and getting to the free throw line this season before the team even thinks about matching an offer sheet after the season. I think there's a decent chance Thad does make strides in these areas, but if not I wouldn't be upset if the Sixers tried to shop him at the trade deadline to see if they could get any value in return.
Anyone watching the Team USA game? Updates would be greatly appreciated.
USA 28 Iran 16 with 6 left in the second quarter... US playing a lineup of gay, granger, love, gordon, westbrook.. and curry just came out of the game.
I missed the first quarter so that's really all I have for you.
9 straight points for Love in under 2 minutes. 3 boards, too.
lol color guy called Russell Westbrook "Lawrence Westbrook"
83-51 with under 2 minutes left. Only suspense is whether the spread will be 35 or more (ESPN's Beat the Streak has a wager set at 35). USA has looked disinterested for most of the game because, let's face it, Iran couldn't beat Duke (and probably couldn't beat Butler).
And Granger hits the three for the big cover. USA 88, IRAN 51.
88-51 final. Granger hit a 3 to "cover" the 35-point spread. Iguodala hit a transition 3 early (stretching the lead from 6-5 to 9-5) but only played about 10 minutes total. We won't find out anything further (anything meaningful, that is) about the team until they start the knockout round next Monday, because their opponent tomorrow (Tunisia) is even worse.
Is there a chance Spain doesn't even make the elimination round? What is it, 4 out of 5 teams from each group move on?
Not really. It's 4 out of 6 in each Group, and Spain is currently tied for 3rd in their group (and they just beat the 5th place team). But Spain's poor showing does increase the possibility they could face the U.S. in the quarterfinals.
They're 2-2 now, right? I wonder if Iguodala gets Rubio when we play them, or maybe Fernandez.
Possibly, but Rubio has been underwhelming so far (1-13 past two games, 6-22 overall). If the U.S. faces Spain, the key will be defense of the high pick & roll. My main concern with the U.S. starting lineup is that Rose doesn't defend the P/R well and is below average overall defensively. I can envision his man (whether Navarro, Rubio, Fernandez, or even Garbajosa) running the P/R with Gasol over and over.