36 up, 34 down, 12 left to go. The Sixers are already four games better than where I thought they'd finish the season, and they aren't done yet. Let's take a look at the remaining schedule and put our predictions on the record to kick off the work week.
Download the advanced stats spreadsheet for the entire season here.
42.5% of voters nailed the Sixers 6-4 record over the past 10 games. I had them at 7-3, but managed to get three games wrong (I had BOS as a loss, and wins against UTA and MIL). Still, another 10-game stretch with a winning record is nothing to sneeze at.
Here's a look at the final 12, with my predictions. Check them out, vote in the poll, then leave your thoughts on how the season will end in the comments below.
- vs. ATL, Wednesday - For once, the Sixers are on the taking end of a scheduling quirk. Atlanta plays Tuesday night in Chicago. The Sixers will need to shake off some rust, but I'm going to look at the three-day layoff as needed rest. W.
- @ MIA, Friday - I'm not impressed by Miami. Still can't call it a win. L
- vs. SAC, Sunday - Win. They're a bad, bad team. W.
- @ CHI, 3/28 - I'm calling this game a win for one reason, and one reason only. I will actually be in Chicago, sitting right behind the Sixers bench, for this one. No way they lose with me in attendance, on the road. (Just ignore the back-to-back for the Sixers, against another well-rested team in the Bulls.). W.
- vs. HOU, 3/30 - Houston is pretty much even with the Sixers in standings, though in an odd twist, the Sixers actually have a better record against Western Conference teams than Houston does. Houston is only above .500 because they beat up on the East. Anyway, I'm calling it a win. Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back, the Sixers are not. W.
- vs. NJN, 4/1 - Deron Williams might be done for the year. W
- @ MIL, 4/2 - Second night of a back-to-back, in MIL. That didn't end well for the Sixers last time. This time, MIL is also on short rest. I think they take the challenge head on. W
- @ BOS, 4/5 - I think they could win it, but I won't predict it. L
- vs. NYK, 4/7 - Back-to-back for both teams. The Sixers are deeper, younger, and have a shorter flight (NYK @ TOR the previous night). I'm taking the Sixers to lock down the tiebreaker. W
- vs. TOR, 4/8 - Has to be a win. W
- vs. ORL, 4/11 - Orlando will probably be locked into the #4 seed, but there's a chance this game could be the difference between the #5 and #6 for PHI, so Orlando may have something to play for. Either way, I think the Sixers take it. Longest homestand of the season to end the season, kind of like that. W.
- vs. DET, 4/13 - If they need this game, it's going to be a win. I don't think they're going to need it, though. The #6 seed will be decided long before this game, and I'm afraid #5 may be just out of reach. L
OK, those are my admittedly bullish predictions for the rest of the games. 9-3 to finish the season with a 45-37 record, which I think will be good for 6th by a couple of games.
By the way, if these five off days don't "fix" Iguodala and he winds up missing more time, subtract a bunch of wins from my prediction.
Extra credit predictions for you guys in the comments: Where do they finish in the standings and who do they play in the first round?
I have the same feeling about the Celtics game but don't want to jinx them either. Sorry bout the Bulls game I call that an L because of the Bulls wanting to get payback. They're still duking it out with Boston for the top seed. Still 8-4 wouldn't be so bad. I hope you're right though. Here's my breakdown -
Hawks - W Dre is rested, team gets some needed rest. They should be focused and ready.
Heat - L - Even though Dre can hold LBJ below his average there is just too much firepower with the Heat.
Kings - W - Pathetic team. Worried about a letdown game though considering how lopsided the last one was.
Bulls - L - Sorry but I think Bulls get payback for their loss to 76ers. I know 76ers can win, but will they?
Rockets - W - Should be automatic. Rockets aren't nearly what they used to be.
Nets - W - It's the Nets. Even with Williams.
Bucks - W - 76ers get revenge.
Celtics - L - This is just a pick to not jinx them. I think they can win this but will they? I think this is a must-win for Boston too because they are neck and neck with Chicago.
Knicks - W - Hopefully Dre continues to shut down Melo. Knicks lost a lot of depth in trade so it should be to our advantage.
Raptors - W - If they lose this I will be pi$$ed!
Magic - L - Even if Howard and others sit I expect 76ers might do the same with Brand/Dre depending on how banged up they still are and if we are still playing for 6th seed.
Pistons - W - I can't chalk this up as an L even though I don't see any of our starters playing this one. Pistons just are not a team anymore.
8-4 sounds reasonable though I hope you're right.
There are a lot of different ways these last 12 games can play out. Will Iguodala and Brand be healthy? Will they have another bad few games? But somehow i think whatever they do, nothing will change seeding wise. They are 6th now and i think they will stay there. I'm gonna go with 8-4 with losses at Heat, Bulls, Bucks and Celtics. I think they will sweep all of their remaining home games but will lose all of their road games. All in all a 44 win season, not too shabby considering the 3-13 start.
I voted on a 7-5 finish and 43 wins because I have a feeling our coach may be thinking of rest over seeding from here on out. Minutes for Nucioni and less minutes for Elton and Iggy are a possibility. If Spieghts doesn't earn playoff minutes is he gone over the summer? Maybe he is a guy happy to score points and get minutes on a losing team somewhere.
pretty sure we extended speights in the fall, and that he is still under contract next season, so that would have to occur through a trade. can't imagine his value is very high.
They didn't extend him so much as pick up his option.
I'm sure the sixers would trade Speights if it was the right deal but I don't think they'll 'get rid of him' either. He' on a cheap deal and can still turn it around. No reason to give up on him until his rookie deal is up.
To be fair, I'd expect any young player would prefer minutes on a bad team to DNP-CD on a good one...
But coaches hate Speights- and probably for a reason. I don't think it is particular to Collins. None of his 4 NBA coaches (or his college coach) gave Speights regular minutes. I doubt that will change next year.
I voted for 43, with a 7-5 finish.
I think that will be good enough for the 6th seed, but I have no idea who they will play. Miami's schedule is absurdly easy the rest of the way. Boston & Chicago's are both a bit tougher.
42 wins. Sixth, and Heat. They don't have the size to hurt us inside (our biggest weakness), but the superstar calls for Wade and LeBroom may be too much.
I actually voted for 44. All your picks look right to me, with the exception, of course, of Chicago.
Come on, it's not like the Bulls have the MVP or anything :)
Or even the second best MVP candidate (LeBron), or third (Dirk). But they do have the league's best defense and a pretty good point guard, and they are at home.
Heh. I didn't realize until just now the Knicks lost to the Bucks last night. How long until Melo demands a trade?
Was a close one too, Knicks came out flatter than flat (32-9 in the first quarter) but the Bucks did their damndest to make it close. I had it on in the background while I did housework.
Did you read the Vescey column about Melo in New York - seems like he is quite the diva
Do you have a link? I recall starting the story over the weekend, but didn't finish it.
You know, none of it sounded diva-ish at all. It was like, Hansbrough scores 30, Carmelo implied D'Antoni should have made an adjustment. Carmelo scolded Jeffries for not passing to him at the end of the game. Vecsey says that wasn't the play and Carmelo wanted Jeffries to break the play. Of course, maybe Vecsey doesn't know what he's talking about; maybe Melo was an option on that play and the first option was denied but Jeffries forced it anyway. I think the coverage of Melo right now is pretty silly. People who are smart understood the trade wouldn't actually make them much better and that it could make them worse in the short term. Chandler's a better defender than Melo, Gallo's a way better shooter; the deal made them, maybe, a little better offensively and definitely worse defensively. But a Sheridan or a Vecsey doesn't get that; they think this deal should have made New York a contender, and since they're not playing like one, they go and blame Melo, even though he's not actually struggling, with the exception of one lousy game (after which, oh my God, he didn't talk to reporters). It's not his fault, it's ownership's fault for thinking what the team needed was a big-time, not terribly efficient scorer who can't defend.
The article I'm referring to is Vescey on Sunday
"Did you read the Vescey column about Melo in New York - seems like he is quite the diva "
*I am shocked, SHOCKED to find gambling is going on here.*
Video: Lou Williams on the Sixers heading into the final 12 games:
http://ow.ly/4iTSb
Video: Collins on the Sixers not taking anything for granted heading into the final 12 games:
http://ow.ly/4iUMb
Vdeo: Iguodala Monday on his knee injury and the chances the Sixers can catch the Hawks:
http://ow.ly/4iVwq
Video: Young on the importance of the Sixers finishing the regular season strong:
http://ow.ly/4j0lW
Iguodala: 'I've played through worse injuries'
http://ow.ly/4j1NK
Williams: Sixers capable of winning final eight at home
http://ow.ly/4j8Dd
Um - Go Celtics
The700level is doing a Philly sports stars March Madness style bracket. http://www.the700level.com/2011/03/philly-march-madness-7-maurice-cheeks-vs-10-eric-desjardins.html Sixers are getting no love. Maurice Cheeks is currently TIED with Eric Desjardins??? Yes. You heard that right. Moses already lost Tug McGraw. Go on and show the Sixers some love people!
Why is this surprising?
The Flyers are more popular than the sixers
I bet John Cheney would take out most sixers
Celts look asleep in this game. Hopefully, the Knicks will run out of steam here.
Maybe we want the 7 seed? Boston's really been scuffling.
So somehow I ended up the four seed in my H2H rotisserie league team which has Amare AND Dwight on it. I'd really like amare to go for 30 and 20 both games and swap a few blocks and still have the knicks lose.
they woke up
I thought teams with superstars didn't fold in crunch time. Guess no one told the Knicks.
Did somebody here say that? I mean, even if that were true, if the other team has superstars too that goes out the window.
I guess the sixers has no superstars
And yet they can still fold in crunch time - even against teams not as good as them (utah)
Nice Monday night treat: watching the Knicks fold in the last six minutes. Between Amare crying about non-calls, Melo being a non-factor and D'Antoni's awful coaching, it was a wonderful thing. I hate the Knicks now more than ever...
Vintage bad Cousins tonight. 8 turnovers and counting (I think that's a career high), 5 fouls. The rest of his line - 11, 8 and 4, on 11 shots - is okay. Derrick Rose, who showed some moxie today going on record in a piece on David Stern's All-Star Game locker room comments, had his first efficient game in forever. And Ty Lawson, coming off a 16, 7 and 6, has 17 points on 6 shots at halftime.
Wow. Cousins had 13 fouls and turnovers combined in 25 minutes of action. Hasn't been done in 11+ years in the NBA.
I guess that means his future is Shawn Kemp. Who, in his rookie season, averaged 6 and 4 with 2.5 fouls in just 13 minutes a game. A real bust.
More likely it means he's going to be like the fat, old Shawn Kemp, only he won't have the seasons of physical dominance before he leaves the NBA.
Lawson seems to be thriving with consistent minutes. Not too surprising. He's so potent in pick and rolls with his quickness, breaking down the defense at will.
And remember when there were pre-draft concerns that he wouldn't be able to get his shot off at this level.
I think this team is going to struggle down the stretch. I have them at 41 wins.