Two wins, eight losses and many, many more questions than answers. The advanced stats show some surprising trends, but most are more alarming. We've got a slight body of data, so let's look at the numbers from the first ten games and hand out some credit and blame, if we can.
We'll begin with the advanced stats and try to walk through them in an order that brings some order to the madness. Up first is the pure offensive and defensive ratings. How many points to the Sixers score and allow, per 100 possessions. (Pace is the number of possessions per 48 minutes. Numbers in green are the games the Sixers won):
Offensive efficiency is down by about a point-and-a-half from last season. Defensive efficiency is nearly two points better than last season. Pace is much, much faster: 90.75 possessions/48 minutes in 2009-2010 to 94.59 in the first 10 games.
The Sixers have improved their eFG and FTF (free throw rate) over last season. Unfortunately, they're grabbing fewer offensive rebounds (0.276 last season) and turning the ball over more (0.131 last season). Probably not coincidentally, fewer offensive rebounds plus more turnovers equals more possessions per game, so maybe the Sixers are playing looser and not extending offensive possessions instead of simply playing faster under Collins. My guess is that it's a little bit of both.
Dramatic improvement in the first three categories, led by eFG allowed (0.519 last season). They're forcing more turnovers and the defensive rebounding shows a .001 improvement over last year. The problem, though, lies at the free throw line. Last season, the Sixers allowed .231 made free throws per field goal attempt. This year, that number has ballooned to .331, an increase of almost 50%.
Finally, here's the game-by-game and cumulative update on the key indicator I've been tracking since the opener. The Sixers have had three games where they did an excellent job of attacking the basket and didn't settle for the low-percentage jumpers that kill a team, imo. Their worst performance came against the Spurs, which was also their worst game of the season, by far. On the defensive end, you can really see how much Dallas loves shooting jumpers, and they shoot them pretty well. Personally, I think being that type of team makes it very hard to win in the post season. The oddity here is that the worst performance the team had in this metric came in a decisive win over the Knicks. New York, however, eschews the long two for threes, so the metric may not have all that much meaning.
From a "suffering through every minute of game play" perspective, here are some cobbled-together thoughts:
- The lack of any type of interior defender is infecting other areas of team defense, but blocking shots isn't the biggest problems with bigs, it's their shoddy play on the pick and roll. Jrue has been poor in stopping penetration off the dribble, and he absolutely needs to get back to moving his feet, but the vast majority of penetration is happening because bigs aren't showing, hedging or really doing anything to slow down the ballhandler in pick-and-rolls in the middle of the court.
- Collins asked for more leadership from his veterans in the summer, and I can definitely see it from Elton Brand. He was pretty passive, almost like a passenger last season. This year, he's doing much more talking on the floor, sort of mentoring the young guys, and I've seen him get in people's faces when they miss an assignment on several occasions. Good to see. I haven't seen any of that from Iguodala.
- I think Collins is going to have to start running plays specifically for Turner. He's not looking for his shot, and it seems to me like he's sort of taking a back seat and trying to fit in too much. When he has the ball in his hands, a lot of the time it looks like a game of hot potato, he just wants to pass it on to someone else. He needs a little direction and saying, "You're going to run off these two screens, catch on the wing and either shoot or hit EB in the post because his man switched on to you, or vice versa." Treat him like a rookie quarterback, limit his options, but make sure he knows the play is being run for him to score first, set someone up for a score second. I think that type of direction would have good results.
- I do believe Collins is doing a good coaching this team. He's at a disadvantage in nearly every game, he's trying some things out, he's experimenting. With that is going to come some drastic failures, but he's also going to learn who can and can't do what's needed in any given situation. If he's here for the long haul (and the players are), that's going to be extremely valuable to have when the games start to matter.
- I will never, ever understand why anyone would foul Lou Williams on jump shot, but it's easily happened double-digit times in the first ten games. After an extremely efficient start, Lou has hit a brick wall with his shooting. His frequent trips to the line are the only thing holding his head above water on the offensive end. Eventually, a coach is going to lose his mind when a defender fouls a sub-40% shooter on a 20-foot faked attempt.
Collins made a point of talking about the foul discrepancy earlier today. -8 per game at the line is ridiculous, and this isn't a "well they have no superstars, they don't get the whistles" type of thing either. For the most part, it's getting beat, getting lazy and then just taking the foul to prevent a dunk.
So ten in the books, 72 more to go. Hopefully games 11-20 will be more productive than the first ten.
In the next 10 games the sixers have four back to backs, which is kind of asinine, but they aren't going to sweep any of them in my mind.
I think they'll split on the first two back to backs (losing to Milwaukee in the middle) - then lost to Portland. They should beat NJ but second half of a back to back lost, who knows really.
Then they'll lose To Atlanta and Charlotte in early December.
I see another 2-8, maybe 3-7 in the next 10
The next 10 will be better. They play a bunch of beatable teams. I think they win 3 or 4 of the next 10, if that means anything. Not that a 6-14 start is much to build on. And the following 15 are tougher.
I'm guessing we are still about 1 month away from a major trade. Not because the Sixers want to wait, but because that's when things start to happen. And I doubt the Sixers wait until the deadline.
December 15th is the target date everyone is looking at as that's when players signed in the off season can be moved.
Did you take into account that even when playing the beatable teams the sixers have 4 back to backs in the next 10?
Back to backs should not effect the Sixers as badly as older teams. My guess is they get up for 1 of the 2 games, which is probably not different than most nights.
I tend to think of back to backs as more of a challenge for good teams to maintain focus and win both.
I still think having the tail end of a back-to-back at home is a HUGE disadvantage. Or it would be if the Sixers had any kind of discernible home court advantage even on normal rest.
Elton Brand is old :)
I wonder if we are looking at a 20 win season. That would make them truly 76ers. As in losing 76% of their games.
62-20 sure would be a better way to honor thy name.
76-6 would be even better
I love the name of this post! Aside from the last game which was disgusting, the first 10 have been more fun to watch than I thought they would be, even though the wins haven't been there. Collins should figure out the best rotation before too long. The only worry I still have is the Sixers trading Iguodala before the deadline for players we don't want or need. That better not happen, it would be tough to take if we didn't get a good young player back.
How does everyone see the next 10 going?
I don't see 4 wins as all that possible with all the back to backs.
I'm thinking another 2-8. I'm having a hard time coming up with a game besides @WAS that they will win.
Well, I mean I see 5 games with teams on their level, then 2 against teams who are probably better but aren't playing especially well, and are certainly beatable (MIL and CHA). So I'd say 4 is probably a stretch. It's not like they outclass anyone currently, but they're certainly capable of winning any of those games if they put together 48 minutes of solid effort.
@CLE
PHI - 2 days rest
CLE - 2 days rest
TOR
PHI - 0 days rest
TOR - 0 days rest
MIL
PHI - 1 day rest
MIL - 2 days rest
@WAS
PHI - 2 days rest
WAS - 1 day rest
TOR
PHI - 0 days rest
TOR - 2 days rest
@MIA
PHI - 1 day rest
MIA - 1 day rest
NJ
PHI - 0 days rest
NJ - 2 days rest
POR
PHI - 2 days rest
POR - 1 day rest
@ATL
PHI - 2 days rest
ATL - 1 day rest
CHA
PHI - 0 days rest
CLE - 0 days rest
hopefully I got them all correct... anyway, that is pretty tough. Those last 6... should they be favored in any? I guess Charlotte.
I didn't look at more than 2 games before, so some teams may have 3 games rest when listed at 2. I don't think 2 vs. 3 is a big deal, personally.
This schedule is such BS. Look at that, 2 times they're playing the second night of a back to back against a team with 2 days rest. Plus they just played one against a team with 3 days rest, on the road. Someone should be outraged.
Wonder how many games the sixers ever have the rest advantage in versus a team like the cletics, heat, lakers
I say 3-7, possibly 4-6.
Guess i'm optomistic lol.
Just to further say why. I think the sixers will take 3 of
Cle/Toronto/Washington/Toronto/New Jersey/Charlotte
Then Win 1 out of Portland (3 day rest@ home i think we match up with them better than ppl think)/Milwaulkee/Portland
lose to miami
I would love at least 3 wins but not sure they get them. Have you guys noticed how Collins has been blasting these guys in the time out huddles lately? I wonder, personality wise how our young guys react to that. They have had cupcakes coaching them recently and Turner had Motta, who I don't know personality wise, but he seems a tough guy to figure out .[Turner]
Just from his interviews and the way he plays I like Turner a lot so far, but for some reason he seems disengaged at times. Maybe feels like he still don't fit in quite yet?
Sixers are shooting a higher percentage from the field and 3-point line than opponents, yet are tied with Raptors for conference's worst record.
http://ow.ly/3ag3k
Yes, you'd think those would be good numbers
yet, 24th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency - that sucks
It's actually kind of sad
http://knickerblogger.net/statpage/2011/index.htm
15th in defensive efficiency is an accomplishment with this roster. Pretty much no matter what lineup they send out there, they've got below average defenders at 40% of the positions. Typically, they're at 60%, sometimes as high as 100%.
I suppose - but with all that 'out shooting' they're doing - you'd think their offense would be more efficient.
Must have something to do with a difference in the number of possessions and a difference in the number of foul shots.
I'm sure there's something in it - 'team box scores' are my net project to work on
Possessions are always the same, by rule. Offensive rebounds don't give you another possession, they just prolong the current possession.
The foul shots are the big difference.
Okay, but colloquially we do say, "and Reggie Evans gets them another possession!" Which is what I meant.
Even if you're using that thought process, the Sixers have 102 offensive boards, their opponents have 109. It's not a big difference.
On the other hand, the Sixers have made 184 free throws, their opponents have made 262.