Through the first ten games of the season, the Sixers were an elite defensive basketball team. They were following in the footsteps of the team which finished one game away from the Eastern Conference Finals last season. It was a miracle, considering the roster changes, but it appeared as though their system would survive the personnel losses. Since then, things have changed...dramatically.
Here's the breakdown:
First 10 games:
- eFG allowed: .478
- Turnover rate against: .149
- Defensive rebounding rate: 75.4%
- Free throw rate against: .183
- Points allowed per-100-possessions: 99.57
Past 7 games:
- eFG allowed: .490
- Turnover rate against: .120
- Defensive rebounding rate: 69.1%
- Free throw rate against: .212
- Points allowed per-100-possessions: 109.97
As a point of reference, a DFR of 99.57 would be #2 in the league right now. 109.97 would be second worst.
Their record over each stretch? 6-4 through the first ten, 4-3 through the last seven. How were they mediocre with such a great defense to start the season, and how are they keeping pace with such horrible defense since? Great questions. The answer is their offense has almost exactly mirrored their defense. 98.25 OFR in the first 10 (would be dead last in the league right now), 109.65 OFR in the past seven (would be #4 in the league right now).
Here's the question, though. Which trend is more reliable? Do you think the Sixers offense will continue to perform at the blistering pace we've seen over the past seven, or will it fall back to the middle of the pack - or worse?
Ultimately, it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters over this indeterminate period from the beginning of the season until Bynum first steps on the court is the team's record. They can't dig a hole too deep. If they get the wins on the back of unbelievable, completely unreliable offensive efficiency, that's great. If they do it using a stifling defense, that works too. Honestly, neither is something this squad will be able to consistently replicate. Their defense has too many holes, especially up front. Their offense is wholly reliant on Jrue's creation and the shooters hitting their shots. It was probably only a matter of time for teams to figure out how to attack the Sixers, and I can't imagine the defensive adjustments will be far behind.
Here's what I'm hoping for. I'm hoping these trends even out and, statistically speaking, they wind up somewhere in the middle of the pack on both ends of the floor. That should equate to a .500 record. I'm hoping they wind up a couple games better than that on the back of late-game performances.
The short-term goal remains getting to 4 games over .500 by Sunday, December 23rd. The day they begin the Ice Capades trip. I think 2-6 is a likely outcome from that 8-game trip, and they need to be at or above .500 when they get back. Can they do it? It's not going to be easy. They have 10 games on their schedule over the next 19 days. Six at home, four on the road. Only four against teams at or above .500, but the sub-.500 teams include the Lakers, Mavs, Timberwolves and Pacers. All talented teams. The other two teams are the Pistons, who hammered the Sixers, and the Rockets, who are extremely unpredictable. 6-4 over that stretch? That might be a stretch.
Here's a cool new feature from
B-R.com, an embedded live look at their numbers. This table is tailored to the first numbers I check for a baseline on how a player is performing. Check it out:
Their defensive drop can be attributed to a single problem IMO and it's defensive rebounding. It's been horrible of late (69% is atrocious) and the opponents eFG% benefits from the easy looks on put backs and dunks off of offensive boards.
If they can fix this issue the defense will be fine. I'm not sure if they can though with their current big man rotation.
As for their offense they are shooting the ball better while turning it over less. I am confident they keep this up in the turnover department, but i am not sure their shooting will be this good going forward. It's almost entirely a result of Turner suddenly becoming an efficient scorer and his consistency is a major question mark. We have seen this before after all and it's difficult to assume that he will be this good going forward. However, i am reasonably confident that he has indeed improved.
Eh. For a 5% drop in DRB to equate to 10 points worse in DFR would mean 2 points per o-board, which just doesn't happen. It might be the main factor, though.
Well it's 6.3% to be exact and i'd say the shooting percentage on shots following offensive rebounds is far better than 50%. Not to mention that watching these games it feels like most of those situations lead to dunks or putbacks by the opposing big men.
Anyway, my point wasn't that the defense will be as good as it was if the defensive rebounding improved to the previous levels. I'm just saying that if they can fix that, they will have an elite defense or something reasonably close to it. The DFR can be 102 (2.5 points higher) or so and the defense will still be elite IMO.
I think there is clearly an argument to be made that there is a lack of consistency ... but I honestly feel the difference in performance defensively is mostly attributable to the relatively easy schedule early, combined with inconsistent effort from the newer players on the bench.
With this many new players, it takes a while to undo years of bad defensive culture and get them totally bought into a new way of playing ball.
The most glaring problem is bench defense. The only decent contribution defensively off the bench is with Kwame now that he's not starting.
Jesus. The big mens' TS% is atrocious.
until Bynum first steps on the court is the team's record.
I love your optimism
Monday practice video: Thaddeus Young and Doug Collins on the Sixers' 5-1 record this season in games decided by 6 points or fewer despite having some room for improvement at crunch time:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpXi8LrCudM
I think the main issue this season has been that they've gotten nothing from Hawes...certainly not 6.5 mil worth. Second biggest issue is that Nick Young isn't Lou Williams.
Andrei Kirilenko (back spasms) sat out Monday's practice and is not expected to travel with the Wolves for road games on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Very good news for Turner.
Was trying to figure out how the Wolves are a top-ten defensive team. Love's absence and AK47's presence are the only reasons I could come up with.
Haven't seen AK play in the nba this year but in the Olympics I was shocked at how many shots he blocked from the weak side. I'm going to the game tomorrow and I kinda wanted to see him play live. That said I'd rather ETs confidence not be crushed by that lanky ruski. Maybe Derrick Williams will get more time, interested to see his game too.
Where does this term "ice capades" mean and where does it come from? I was wondering last season too, but i guess better to ask now than never.
Also, does the basketballreference table have some order that it is sorted?
It's sorted by total win shares, which is hidden in this view.
Ice Capades is a kids' ice skating show that takes over the WFC for a couple weeks around the holidays, that's the reason for this yearly extended road trip. At least it used to be, they still have the ice Capades, right?
Where does this term "ice capades" mean and where does it come from? I was wondering last season too, but i guess better to ask now than never.
Also, does the basketballreference table have some order that it is sorted?
I have no insight or reason to believe this - i didn't do any research at all - but a pure shot in the dark guess is that 'capades' started out as 'escapades' and since the first word is 'ice' and has the same 's' sound they dropped the e?
As I said - pure spitballing
Isn't it pretty alarming that Maalik Wayns has the highest usage rate yet the 3rd fewest minutes? Just asking for those that decipher these numbers better than me.
Yeah, usage rate is the percentage of team offensive possessions you use while on the floor (via shot, FTA or turnover). So if you play 10 minutes, your team has 20 offensive possessions, you take 5 shots, and turn the ball over 5 times, your usage rate would be 50%. If you take 4 shots w/ no turnovers in the same span, it would be 20%. If you take two shots, two free throw attempts and turn the ball over once, then you're at 25% again.
You can look at Jrue's numbers. He's playing 38.5 minutes/game, the team is averaging 90.5 possessions per 48 minutes, so he's on the floor for roughly 72.5 possessions/game (assuming they don't play significantly faster or slower when he's on the floor). He averages 15.7 shots, 3.8 FTA, and 4.1 turns. So somewhere around 21.47 possessions used. (they multiply FTA times .44 to estimate their possession value, taking and-one and technical into account). 20 or so possessions out of a possible 72 and change. A little over a quarter.
Man, I just don't know if he sees the floor that well, he's got a talent for pushing the ball in transition and getting himself to the line...a useful skill for sure, just when he's in the halfcourt he seems like he doesn't really do much but pound the air out of the rock.
Collins told Wayns to be aggressive, and that when he comes in teams don't want him to be looking for his shot, so he should put some pressure on them. apparently he interpreted this to mean he should force his way into the paint every possession against 3 defenders.
in fairness to Wayns, they're asking a lot of him right out of the gate. Doug is hoping for some change of pace, off the bench explosiveness from a guy that's still trying to get his feet wet. Can't stress enough how much I think they're missing Lou right now. You watch a guy like Nick Young and realize how out there scorers off the bench can be. Lou's shot selection was elite compared to what they've got off the pine now...
Lavoy's poor defensive boardwork really jumps out from that table. On the flip side, Hawes is grabbing a good amount of D-boards by the numbers, but it does not pass the eye test. I guys 7 footers standing in the lane can get a fair amount of d-boards by default- because I sure don't see him grab many contested ones.