 Should He Stay, Or Should He Go? With trade rumors flying and the trading deadline fast approaching,
this franchise is going to have to make a tough decision. Right now,
Andre Miller is playing his best ball of the season, and he's honestly
matching the season he put up last year.Miller's re-emergence as a premier point guard couldn't have come at a better time for a couple of reasons. One, the team needs him now more than ever. It appears as though they've started their patented second half run ahead of schedule this season, and he's a key ingredient in the team's improved play. Two, if the Sixers are going to make an impact trade at or before the deadline, it's going to mean either Ed Stefanski was able to pull the wool over some GM's eyes, or Andre Miller will be headed out of town. After the jump we'll take a closer look at what trading Miller would mean, what they need to get in return and whether moving him at all is a good idea for the short and long-term future of this team. If Elton Brand comes back healthy and he can be assimilated into this team, playing this way, the Sixers will become a very dangerous team when the playoffs come around. The problem, of course, is that if you hold on to Miller, he very well may walk away at the end of the season. You might be able to swing a sign-and-trade with someone over the summer, but his value in a sign-and-trade is nowhere near what it would be right now. Ed Stefanski is going to have to weigh the short-term against the long-term success of this team, see what other teams are offering and then make the best decision possible. Trading Miller will have a disastrous short-term effect on the team. Holding on to him could have worse long-term implications if they don't get anything back for him. Before the season, I said they had to sign Miller to an extension. After waffling on that thought for part of the season, I think I'm back in the "extend him" camp. Take a look around the league, how many points can you honestly say are better than Miller? Here's the list I came up with, in no particular order:
I can tell you, without a doubt, the Sixers will not be able to replace Miller with anyone on that list. Not through a trade this season, nor through a trade or free agency next season. Let's talk about free agency a little bit. If the Sixers can somehow find a way to be under the cap, what FA point guards could be available?
So of the guys remaining, who do you want to be the Sixers' point guard in 2010? Assuming this year is toast, because if they trade Miller it will be, how are things going to be any better next season? The only way trading Miller is even remotely palatable is if you can either (a) get a premier shooting guard back. Mike Miller, maybe, (b) you can get a legitimate replacement for Andre Miller in return. Or (c) you make another move for a serviceable point, preferably moving Dalembert in the other move. If you trade Miller and don't accomplish any of those three goals, you aren't only giving up on this season, you're giving up on next season as well. That's two years of Elton Brand's contract down the tubes. If you advocate trading Miller and tanking the season in the hopes of landing a top PG in the draft, how long will it take for that PG to develop into the kind of point who can take you deep into the playoffs? Two, maybe three years, if you get extremely lucky. Brand would be 33 or 34 by the time you developed a Stephen Curry or Brandon Jennings type, and it would take a monumental collapse, or an extremely lucky ping pong ball to get into the top 5 to be able to take one of those guys. Right now, I think Miller is a top-ten point in this league. If you sign him to a two or three year extension, it would take a miracle for him to still be at that level throughout, but I doubt he's going to drop off to the point of the other guys on that list of available points above. If you don't extend him, I'm not sure what you're expecting to do. There has to be some kind of plan in place, and losing Miller's contract alone is not going to yield enough cap space to replace him at the point, let alone add a shooting guard. I may be in the minority on this one, but that's how I feel right now. Trading Miller for anything short of Mike Miller (or a comparable shooting guard) or a point of equal or greater productivity will set this franchise back. It will narrow the window Elton Brand's signing opened up and it will cripple the team on the court. Royal Ivey is not a viable option as your starting point unless you surround him with plus talent at all four positions. Lou Williams is not a viable starting point under any circumstances. Extending Miller, however, is a tricky proposition. Assuming he's interested in an extension, which is somewhat in doubt, when do you do it? Take a look at the economy, and its effect on baseball's offseason. The premeire free agents have gotten their money (from the Yankees), while all of the second tier guys are signing at huge discounts. If you give Miller 2 years/$20M right now, you're probably paying more than market value. I wonder what he would be able to get on the open market as a free agent. Would he be an MLE guy? I could see Portland making a play for him, if they don't lose all their cap space. Letting Miller hit free agency is a dangerous game of chicken, but it could have a decent payoff. They may get a discount on his contract in both dollars and years when the recession hits basketball's economy the way it's hitting baseball's economy right now. I realize there are going to be some strong opinions in the opposite direction, so let me have it in the comments. All I ask is that you provide some kind of reason, and some kind of solution. If you want Miller traded, I want to know who you envision being the point guard for this team on opening night next season, and how the Sixers are going to get him. 
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I don't advocate trading Andre Miller for the purpose of tanking, I advocate trading Andre Miller because he's getting older and shouldn't be here long term...he'll age and probably quickly since he's shown little interest in off season work outs in his career (and that just irritates me)...and it's the last year of his contract...and if you don't trade him he walks away for nothing.
It's tiresome to say 'don't trade him if you don't get a point guard' - because then you either advocate letting him walk away without getting anything or paying him too much for too long on an extension in my opinion.
It's about value, Millers value was probably at its highest in the off season - when he had an obscene career type season (in his 30s, very rare) and people thought he could keep it up...each day his trade value goes down a little because of games played. He has two trade values, expiring contract (fixed number) and on the court (which goes down with every game played) for any team that trades him (sure he has a 3rd value in that the later you trade him the less you to pay him but that's off set by the players you trade away)...so every day he isn't traded he's worth 1/82 less.
And I think keeping him for this season and then letting him walk is a short sighted move that screws the sixers more long term than trading him and getting the best package (regardless of team) you can to put the team in to better position later.
I don't play the 'who you gonna trade for' game any more than i like to play 'who should be the next coach game' - none of us know Millers true value or who is really available any more than we know what assistants would make good head coaches. The Sixers know whats out there and if they sit on miller and then he walks for nothing it's just an asinine move cutting off your nose to spite your face in my opinion.
The sixers don't have any other starting Point Guards on their roster - and keeping miller just to have one for the rest of this season when anyone who thinks they have a realistic chance of winning the title this year is deluding themselves - it just silly to me.
I agree that letting him walk at the end of the season is short-sighted. I think trading him for "the best package possible" is stupid if that package doesn't fill either the hole his absence will leave and/or the hole at SG.
Say he does regress over the next two years, from that list of available free agents, do you see anyone that better than Miller even at 85% of what he is now? I don't.
Letting him walk at the end of the season for nothing is probably the worst-case scenario, followed closely by just moving him for the best available package, regardless of what that package is.
If you can't get the shooter or the point guard replacement for him, you have to re-sign him. Absolutely have to. If you don't you have no viable point going forward and you still don't have the shooting you need. Otherwise, you're just flushing the first 2 or maybe even 3 years of the Brand contract right down the tubes.
One more thing. Miller is probably the only guy in the league whose offseason regimen (or lack thereof) you absolutely cannot question. He absolutely never misses a game, he plays heavy minutes, and conditioning is not a concern with him. It may be a little annoying to suffer through a slow couple of weeks at the beginning of the season, but I'd easily trade that for a point who's a workout warrior and spends 20 games a year on the bench with various injuries.
He knows his body, he rests it in the summer, and he's out there on the floor every single night giving max effort. 400+ consecutive games earns him the benefit of the doubt, in my book.
and conditioning is not a concern with him. It may be a little annoying to suffer through a slow couple of weeks at the beginning of the season, but I'
You don't see the contradiction in statements there? If he worked out more or better in the off season - he wouldn't get off to a slow couple of weeks...and as he ages he'll start of more slowly and he'll get slower...his body will age.
He also might break down after the All Star break if he didn't rest in the summer. Like I said, he gets the benefit of the doubt from me because he's so durable.
Lots of guys come in strong and finish strong and don't break down - I don't buy this argument that his lack of shape early in the season makes him healthier at the end of the season -
No one in the league has been more durable than Miller. You can't argue w/ that.
I am a big fan of Andre M. and I would only trade him if you could package him with another player. Either it being Sammy or Willie. I think with how well Speights has been playing that it wouldnt be bad to have him starting as our center and bringing in Theo for his D against big centers (like Yao the other night). Moving Andre, a player people want, and Sammy, not a bad back up center to a contender, would move 20 million I believe. Andre and Willie would move about 14 million. But the problem is what do we get in return, 20 million worth of salary is not easy to move, would probably need multiple teams moving players to make it work. I would not trade just Andre by himself, I would wait out the season and see what happens. There is still a lot of season left to see what happens when Elton comes back, things may click. At which point signing him to an extension would not be that bad. I think the biggest problem is Sammy on the court when the combo of Reggie, Theo or Speights in his place play much better and smarter at the center/forward positions.
Do you truly feel that Lou cant handle a starting position? I think we all forget how young he is. Why couldn't he handle the point by next year if Andre decides to move back out west? I know he has some flaws but you have to admit his game has improved every year.
His game has improved, but I just don't see it. The ball freezes when he touches it. You can't just have a point dribbling for 12 seconds of the shot clock every time down the floor. He's good at what he does now, but you can't pin your hopes on him becoming something he's not (I'm ducking now, waiting for the "moving Iggy to SG was the same risk" barrage).
Do you truly feel that Lou cant handle a starting position? I think we all forget how young he is. Why couldn't he handle the point by next year if Andre decides to move back out west? I know he has some flaws but you have to admit his game has improved every year.
Yes, I truly feel it. He isn't a point guard, he doesn't have point guard instincts...he's a scorer, a two guard, he's short but that doesn't make him a point guard...he's always been a two guard when he was younger, never asked to be a point guard, I don't think the sixers even think he can be a point guard any more. But that's my feeling on Lou Williams, an excellent sixth man (and better than willie green) but not a starter and not a starting point guard for sure, not on a team that wants to win a title.
Others may disagree, but I don't think Louis Williams has the court vision, or native instincts to be a point guard - and i don't think those are things you can 'learn'.
LIstening to a podcast on ESPN with Bucher and Stein (and Simmons) and Bucher is saying that the Magic could really use Andre Miller (even more than Mike Miller) and it would make them a serious conference contender...he's unimpressed with jameer as a point and even thinks they could run miller and jameer at the same time.
Bucher thinks that the sixers will 'do what they can' to move towards rebuilding if not in a playoff spot by the deadline.
They also think that Andre Miller could be the 'best' available player at the deadline (if Marion doesn't move)
I can't see Andre Miller being traded to a divisional foe, Orlando. The Magic are already a better team than the Sixers without making them better. I trade Andre only if the right trade is there and it brings in return our next starting point guard. The other possibilty is to sign him to a 2 year deal followed by drafting his replaced in this summers draft. Hopefully the Sixers have a #1 this year.
Couple Things
1. The Sixers and Magic are not in the same division - they're in the same conference.
2. If you don't want to trade within conference - that's just a theory i don't agree with - ever - it's just silly
3. Miller is an expiring contract - if he wants to go back west he wants to go back west - and he isn't re-signing with the Magic either so it's a one season move that makes the Magic better than the sixers in a time when they're already better than the sixers and the sixers aren't contending for a title.
Orlando doesn't have the pieces. Take a look at their roster, who would you even want? Hedo, Rashard. They aren't trading either of those guys. I suppose you could try to get Jameer, but look at his contract. I'm also not impressed by him at all. I just don't see any kind of fit.
I disagree w/ the logic that you can't trade with someone in the East. You don't worry about what trades do for the team you're trading with, you only worry about what they do for your own team. That has to be your only concern.
I don't want Jameer either cause I think he's more of a two than a one...but that's where GMs have to get creative and bring in a 3rd team :)
Jameer is having a hell of a year. I don't think people should really be questioning him too much. he is shoting 50% from the field and 42% or something from 3. He isn't turning it over much as well. I don't like smallish PGs really, but he is playing like Jose Calderon righ tnow with a 2.5:1 ast:to.
As for Miller, I don't thin you force anything. That is all I care about. If a deal comes it comes. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Cap space is more valuable than taking on some idiot with a poor contract like Jamal Crawford or something.
Jameer is having a hell of a half year - but it's only one year - you can't project from it and assume it'll continue
How does a PG on that team average only 5 assists per game? Calderon's ast:to ratio is 4:1 this year, it was 5.5:1 last year, which is insane.
Sigh Jose Calderon - stupid free agency rules - really wanted him on the sixers last off season :)
Yup, I think we all did. He was the bargain of the summer too.
I just kind of assumed that because he wasn't drafted he'd have been an unrestricted free agent - i was disheartened when i found out it wasn't true.
He has, in the past, had seasons of around the same caliber, such as 3 years ago, when his PER was exactly the same as it is now. In addition, players typically improve over time.
When looking at Est. WP48(WP48 w/o team def adj pretty much), he has improved this year, just not a very large amount relative to his previous best.(last year)
I would say it would be appropriate to say he is something between what we saw last year and what we see this year which is a guy who would produce on a higher level statistically than Andre Miller.
And Derrick Rose is NOT better than Miller right now. Not even close.
Paul, Kidd, Rondo, Calderon, Bibby, Nelson, Billups, Harris, and Nash are all having better seasons statistically than Miller according to Est. WP48. Duhon and Parker marginally. Deron Williams hasn't been healthy. He is better than Miller when he is. Baron Davis sucks now.
I would say Miller fits in around 9-12 in the league.
My opinion is that Paul is just the best by a lot.(I think he is the best in the league at any position) Then Calderon, Billups are the elite in my mind with Deron once healthy. Then Nash and Kidd. Then Harris, Rondo, and Bibby.(why Bibby is playing so well is mind boggling) Then I don't see anyone noteworthy over Miller.
Im still going to have to disagree on the Lou with you guys and think that you are underating him as a player. But I would do a trade within the East if it helped us out. You cant always be worried about what it does for other teams if it helps us go in the right direction. I think that you also underate Jameer as well. He could do very well with our team that has a lot of young stars that can grow as a team. Andre may be to old to wait that long but Jameer has only been in the league a few years. Is he still on his rookie contract? How much does he make, would the contracts even work out, Andre for Jameer?
Even if we underrate Jameer Nelson - the sixers would not get Jameer Nelson BACK in a trade with the Magic to get Andre miller - that's a lateral move that makes no sense for the magic to make - since nelson is younger and miller might not be there past this season. I don't really care about Nelson because I don't think the magic would trade him for andre miller - not even straight up - if the salaries matched - and if they did make the trade their GM probably should be fired.
As for Williams - I think you're underrating or midreading what people are writing - he's a fine player - he's a good bench player - they're saying he's not a point guard - and he never HAS been a point guard - it's not his game - he has a fine game it's just not tailored to be an NBA PG - he's a VERY poor mans allen iverson...Iverson was never really a point guard either he just got a lot of double teams and guys are open - williams doesn't draw the double teams - nor do i think he has the obscene proportionality or body control Iverson has. The evidence indicates that Louis WIliams isn't a point guard. And even the sixers seem to be accepting that evidence these days.
Lou's last 20 games' per 36s are better than Iverson's career per 36s. Small sample size. Lou Williams, if he played 42 minutes a night and if he played at the same level and if he managed to chuck up another 4 shots(making just 1), would be Allen Iverson essentially.
Lots of ifs, but in a couple years Lou will be Iverson when he is on the court.(give or take a little) He will just be on the court a little less often. I hope he doesn't go that route, but he appears to be.
So I would take away at least the "VERY" in "VERY poor man's Allen Iverson." And he is a better defender.
I'm not going to argue with you because you obviously truly believe what you're saying - but in a few years - I'm guessing Lou Williams still isn't a starting player...
You know, Lou might be a good example of a guy who was hurt by going straight to the pros. If he had played a couple of years in college, he would've dominated. Then at 21 he wouldn't be a kid who spent a couple of years warming the bench, he could've been a lottery pick who came in with a defined role on a team as a scorer.
Curry's a top 5 pick? I agree that we might have to re-sign Miller if we can't get him or someone like him in the draft, but I thought he was more of a mid-lottery pick.
Depends on who you talk to - hollinger has some issues with his make up
It looks like 4 points could go in the lottery, Ricky Rubio, Jrue Holliday, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. I've run this about 100 times and I saw Jennings fall to the Sixers' current slot once. The lowest Curry went was #8, to the T-Wolves. They have Rubio going second in some scenarios. For the most part, they have the Sixers taking a big.
This is just Chad Ford's prediction, though. He had them taking Speights last year, and Al Thornton the year before, if I remember correctly, and we're also 5 months away from the draft.
For what it's worth, I got the Sixers at the #3 spot once, they took Rubio.
The number one priority is to not let him walk for nothing. However I don't see anyone we can get in a realistic deal that will benefit us long/short term.
Of course free agency will be dangerous because if a decent Western team offers him a good deal he'd probably take it.
I think Stefanski has done as well as he could have under the circumstances and I trust him to make the right move once again. My ideal scenario to be frank would be to re-sign him for 2-3 seasons at about 8m per but I don't think that is realistic.
I don't think Lou will ever be a starting PG. He is a scorer off the bench who can create an opportunity or two. No doubt he can become a really effective sixth man in this league in a few years' time, but that's far from a point guard who runs the offense.
Well, if they sign Darius Miles, or someone else does, then the only teams in the Western Conference with any kind of cap space will be Memphis, OKC and Minnesota, and Minny wouldn't have much.
A lot can happen between now and then (hopefully one thing that happens is someone signs Miles to a 10-day contract and gets him in 2 games). Detroit is another possibility, they may like Miller at the point and Stuckey back as the 6th man/combo guard.
If all the West Coast teams have to offer is the MLE, I think the Sixers have a pretty good shot at resigning him, and I'm also not sure it'll take much more than $8M per to sign him. Depends on what the economy does to salaries in the nba.
Brian,
Someone won't sign Miles. Portland sent out a communication to the league's GMs that they would sue any team that took Miles and played him 2 games. That would put his salary back on Portland's cap and they'd be over the limit and couldn't pursue any free agents.
Miles is saying he is going to investigate suing Portland for tampering with his career.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/basketball/nba/01/09/Blazers.Miles/?cnn=yes
I just saw that story. That's insane! If the guy can play, and he has played this season, that's absolutely tampering by Portland. I think they should be fined for sending out that email, maybe penalized in some other way as well.
I think this may piss some team off enough to sign him. I hope it does.
Hi Brian,
I hope someone signs and plays him too. I know he's been a dog in the past but this is definitely stepping over the line.
--Chris
Someone made a good point yesterday - i think it was on True Hoop - that if a team signs Miles it's purely financial but not in a way people are thinking - not to screw over Portland so much as to increase the coffers of said (or all) teams. If Miles hits the magic plateau (and preseason games shouldn't count - that's just stupid) - the Blazers then have to pay a lot more luxury tax which is shared equally between the other teams - so for a little bit of investment on miles the teams can get a good return in revenue sharing when the season is over thus making a positive amount on the signing of Darius Milers - I found it an interesting concept since I hadn't read it anywhere else.
I saw that yesterday. Someone has to sign the guy. Who has been killed by injuries? I mean, you had the Clippers and the Knicks dressing 8 guys at one point.
The warriors could just sign him and play him for a couple games and then cut him and no one would say boo - cause Don Nelon is crazy
Who's the cheapest team in the league? Denver gave Camby away to get under the luxury tax, maybe they'll step up to the plate.
That e-mail bothers me so much I can't put it into words. Miles has a serious case to make for a law suit.
Something tells me that the Blazers are planning to just settle out of court with for a couple mil with Miles because they interfered with his right to work.
Apparently Miles would push them into the tax this year costing them a lot, so it is worth it if it works.
I can't imagine that all these "old school" GMs are going to allow these brash new guys to bully them. I expect him to be signed and play now more than I thought beforehand.
Portland was looking for a point guard with an expiring contract early in the season - I don't know if they still are but i'd definitely explore options with them.
Rubio might have contract buyout issues - he might not be able to afford to be in this years draft according to some reports.
I agree that lou is not a point guard, and that we need to get something for Andre Miller before he walks. Having said that, I think the key piece here is Sammy--namely, we need to dump him ASAP, Ratliff is not a long-term solution, and if we choose to trade Miller we have to get another C (and more?) to complement Speights.
I'm OK with resigning Miller, but this team won't get better until they get rid of Dalembert (and Green or Williams, I'd probably prefer to keep Lou).
Lou has a spot on the team going forward. Dalembert, well, he doesn't have a spot on the team right now according to his minutes and the play of Speights and Theo. I'm always in favor of moving Willie.
Ultimately, if they can move Dalembert for a shooter, everything else will be much, much easier. You can then focus on re-signing Miller, you have depth at C for this season (Theo and Speights), then next season you reassess and see if Smith and Speights can handle the position, if they can't, you try to keep Theo for another year as a defender off the bench. I don't think they really need to get a C back if they move Sammy.
Brand will also see time at center when the Sixers go small.
I mean, you're not really factoring in one huge thing - that if we lose Miller, we probably would get a very high pick. Don't know why that didn't occur to me before. That being the case, I would move him.
Even without Miller, it would be very hard for them to get any higher in the draft than #8. I seriously doubt Curry will be there at #8, especially if Rubio isn't in this draft. Honestly, I think Rubio and maybe Curry are the only two points in the draft who you may get consistent play out of at the NBA level in their first two or three seasons. That's a mighty big gamble to take when you've got a ticking clock on your window and no cap space to work with if the rookie doesn't pan out.
Yeah, you're right. Realistically it'd probably be hard to get higher than 9.