Andres Nocioni has re-entered the perimeter rotation as part of Doug Collins' effort to sort out the minute distribution among six players: Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks, Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Evan Turner and Nocioni. Let's take a close look at how these guys have performed, in combinations, then I'll try to come up with my ideal rotation at the one, two and three.
First, let's take a look at how the team has performed with the most-used combinations. We'll start by isolating the point guards. (All data was pulled from Basketball Value
then manipulated in excel.
When either one or the other is in the game, Jrue is head and shoulders above Lou. But this stat in a vacuum doesn't tell us anything, we need to add context. So let's look at point guard/shooting guard combinations:
A little more enlightening here. Jrue and Meeks is the best-performing duo, followed by Lou and Turner, the Jrue and Lou. Jrue and Turner comes out just south of a wash. It looks like Lou and Meeks should just be scrapped.
Now, let's complete the picture. The following chart shows the most-used PG/SG/SF combinations:
This is really where the rubber meets the road. If you could, you'd want to go the entire game using only JMI, LTI and JWI, but you obviously can't play Iguodala 48 minutes/game. What we need to do is cobble together 48 minutes using these combinations, without playing anyone more that 36 minutes. And maybe the most important thing is to get your best rotation out there for the key stretch of the game. Let's give it a shot:
- JH, JM and AI start the game, play the first 8 minutes together.
- LW, ET and AI play the remaining 4 minutes of the first quarter.
- LW, ET and AN play the first 4 minutes of the second quarter.
- JH, LW and ET (or AN, depending on performance) play the next 4 minutes of the second.
- JH, JM and AI play the final 4 minutes of the second quarter.
- JH, JM and AI play the first 6 minutes of the third quarter.
- LW, ET and AN play the next 4 minutes of the third quarter.
- JH, LW and AI play the final 2 minutes of the third quarter.
- JH, LW and ET/AN play the first 4 minutes of the fourth quarter.
- LW, ET and AI play the next 4 minutes of the fourth quarter.
- JH, JM and AI play the final 4 minutes of the game.
Here's how the minutes break down, individually:
- Iguodala: 36 minutes
- Holiday: 32 minutes
- Meeks: 22 minutes
- Williams: 26 minutes
- Turner: between 14-18 minutes
- Nocioni: between 8-12 minutes
And here's how the minutes break down by 3-man unit (with their OFR/DFR from the chart above, in parens):
- JMI: 22 minutes (+10.23)
- LTI: 12 minutes (+7.26)
- JLI: 2 minutes (+5.92)
- LTA: 8 minutes (+2.82)
- JLT: 4 minutes (+0.79)
This is much harder than I thought it would be. My goal here was to never have a threesome with a negative differential on the floor together, keep the minutes down and also get Jrue, Meeks and Iguodala on the floor together for the key parts of the game (start first, start third, end second, end fourth).
Thoughts in the comments, as usual. By the way, this is a "get through the rest of the regular season in one piece" rotation. When the playoffs start, expect this rotation to be trimmed down to 5 players, at the most, and maybe 4 on some nights. That makes it a bit easier.