 The PG Market Now that the draft has sorted itself out, and the Sixers have an apparent need for a veteran PG, let's take a look around the league and see who's going to be in the market for a PG, and which PGs are available.
Now, here's the list of who I consider to be worthwhile free agent point guards. Meaning, guys who could probably handle a starting job, which is what the Sixers are looking for, I assume:
With Brandon Jennings going to Milwaukee with the #10 pick, I'd say it's a good bet that Sessions will not return to Milwaukee. Charlotte will probably bring Felton back as well. Brown likes having multiple guys who can run the point and I don't see a huge market developing for him. I'd say the odds are better than 50/50 that Bibby's days are done in Atlanta. Jack is a wild card, no way to tell what Indy is thinking. They may match an offer for him, or he may just play for the qualifying offer and test the waters next year as an unrestricted FA. For me, the intrigue is going to come from Bibby, Kidd, Sessions and Miller. I assume Portland would like to have any one of them, and they have enough cap space to top the MLE, but I'm not sure they're willing to do it. They may be more likely to try to work a sign and trade, and save the cap space for a wing. Let's assume they do use the cap space for one of them, that would pretty much leave Dallas and Philly as prime destinations for the remaining three, possibly Detroit as well. The rub here seems to be that at least two of these guys are going to have to either re-sign with their current teams, or accept the MLE from one of the other teams in need of a point. There's also the possibility that a contender, like the Cavs, will try to lure someone like Kidd for the MLE to further their "all in" push for a championship with aged veterans. From the Sixers' perspective, this is how I'd rank the possibilities: 1. Kidd for 2 years, full MLE (possible) 2. Bibby for 2 years, full MLE (doubtful, I think he wants more money, more years) 3. Re-sign Miller for 2 years, $8M per (this should keep them under the luxury tax. I don't go to three years) 4. Sign and trade with Dallas, we send Miller and Dalembert, we get back Kidd (signed to a two-year deal), Dampier, and a future pick. 5. Sign and trade with Portland, we send Miller get back Blake and Outlaw. Not ideal in my mind, but both are expiring contracts so they could be flipped. Blake could be a serviceable point for one season. There's also another option. We could sink or swim with a PG platoon of Lou and Holiday this season. Maybe add a low-priced veteran like Brevin Knight to the mix and then save the MLE for another piece, like Gortat. Thoughts in the comments, as usual. 
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The S&T option with Dallas would be #1, but I see no chance that Cuban would do that - Kidd is still more desirable to teams than Miller, IMO.
I would rank Kidd ahead of Bibby if either would take the MLE...but 1) I see no way that Kidd would come here before other teams that are closer to a title (LAL, POR, HOU) and 2) I don't see either guy taking less than 3 years in an MLE, and I don't blame them. I would give either of them 3 years if they would accept the MLE.
So, if I had to rank them:
1) S&T with Dallas (not holding my breath there;
2) MLE with Kidd;
3) MLE with Bibby
4) S&T with POR for Blake/Outlaw...
(and while I don't know the implications of this, I would probably do Gortat with the MLE before most - if not all - of these moves).
That S&T w/ Dallas would make the Mavs a much, much younger team. I also think 3 years to Miller is a more sound investment than 3 years to Kidd, but that's just my opinion.
Overall, agree with you that Gortat is still my #1 option at this point. Sign Gortat, trade Sammy, get Holiday on the floor w/ Lou and a cheap vet mixed in at the point.
Brian,
That was an excellent analysis. What is the possibility that a team not listed among the six above might jump in on a FA PG just to improve their championship hopes?
I like the idea of trying to go with Lou and Jrue. Last year DiLeo failed to learn whether Lou could play the point or not. He also failed to learn whether or not AI could play SG or whether Mo Speights can defend in the NBA. I think they should take the time this year to introduce the new system and find out about those three players. They could bring in a vet min PG to help tutor or even bring back a retired PG as a coach for Lou and Jrue. They had the ideal developemnt opportunity last year and didn't use it. Now it will cost them more.
I don't believe they 'failed to learn' if Lou could play the point or not - they've tried it for two seasons now - and Lou can not play the point - I see no argument that says he hasn't been given a fair shake - he doesn't have the natural skills.
PS - can't Dallas offer Kidd more than the MLE with bird rights and such? I think Kidd going back to Dallas is almost guaranteed based on most reports and would remove them and him from the lists.
Problem now is that a gu like sessoins isn't an 'interim' solution - he's looking for a long term deal.
I would prefer to go w/ the Gortat option first and try Lou/Jrue at the point. I think the point will go fine w/ those 2 guys under Eddie's system but we need to get a Center (we don't have a center, IMO).
To me, Blake is the best FIT among guys mentioned.He is a good shooter that won!t demand 35 minutes a night like the big name guys.Holliday is behind in his p.g. development because of last year and 20 to 24 minutes a game this year should catch him up.Blake actually is a guy I would resign and gradually edge into the backup role.The Portland sign-trade is the best option to me.I hope we get a good read on Jason and Marreese as our possible starting 5 this year,among many questions we need answered.
I agree with 100% of what you are saying here (getting Blake, making sure Holiday gets minutes, see whether Iggy can man the 2, getting a read on Speights and Smith). A+ post.
Do you think Blake will be ready to accept a backup role in a year or two? That's what it comes down to. And that's why I like Knight. If you're not expecting to win and need a quality vet to mentor Holiday, Knight's that last-contract guy. Spend the extra dough on making a run at Gortat.
I do think Blake will take a backup role. He is a 'serviceable' player so any team that has him as a starter is going to be looking to upgrade.
That being said, I'd not have any problems if the Sixers got Knight either. I think he could be a good mentor for Holiday and Holiday would get minutes with him around. I'm not sure they'll be able to get Gortat as I think some other team is going to take a run at him. If they did, I think it'd be fantastic but I'm not expecting it.
I didn't think you could find a point guard with a worse career 3 point percentage than Andre Miller - but there is brevin knight with his caree 13.4% 3 point FG% and 41.4% FG%
Hell - i'd rather have miller for two years
No, make no mistake, you're not getting Brevin for his shooting. You're not expecting to take the conference with him at the helm. He's an obvious stop-gap measure while your future leader gets some reps. That's the deal. If some of Knight's A/TO smarts rubs off on Holiday, all the better.
I'm thinking with R&S on this.
I don't care about Knight's shooting. I want someone to mentor Holiday and allow him to get some substantial minutes too. I don't really want Miller as he has been taking a lot of shots for a pass first point guard. There were a few games last year Thad would have gotten 30 plus but Miller wound up taking 20+ shots. If Miller was there, I don't think Holiday would get the minutes he'd need to develop either.
The real benefit to going w/ a guy like knight is that you can use the MLE elsewhere: shooter, center, etc. Or you can save it and wait for teams to start buying out their players, just in case you're in the hunt and want to bolster your roster for the stretch run.
Brian,
I'd like both those scenarios you described. I'd like to get Gortat too. I just think he played himself into a pretty decent contract with his performance in the playoffs. Do you have any clue who might get bought out?
Take a look at anyone older player on a bad team with an expiring contract.
Here are a couple that jump out at me:
Ben Wallace
Kenny Thomas
Marcus Camby
Tim Thomas
Kurt Thomas
Larry Hughes
Jamaal Tinsley
Camby would be a good fit for this team. He plays stout D, rebounds and doesn't make a fuss about how many shots he takes.
Kidd likely only chooses the Sixers if there is no starting interest from a better team. Honestly, wouldn't he want the MLE from Dallas before Philly?
I would not dismiss Sessions so quickly. He will likely be a steal for someone.
I do worry about their shooting.
2pt jumper%; 3pt:
Iguodala .348 .307
Young .367 .341
Lou .376 .276
Green .422 .317
Kapono .426 .428
Miller .406 .283
Compare to a guy like Jack: .460 .363
http://www.82games.com/0809/FGSORT7.HTM
I dismiss sessions cause he's going to want a long term contract and to be a starter...he's not a place holder guy per se.
I don't know who the starters will be in 2 years... but Sessions is nearly the same size as Holiday. They can both play in the same backcourt (and play w/ Lou or Iguodala.)
In terms of rotation (in PO)In 2 years
G: Sessions (30), Lou(25), Holiday(35), Iguodala(6)
F: Young(36), Iguodala(30), Brand(20), Speights(10)
C: Sam(8), Speights(20), Smith(10), Brand(10)
That leaves out Green and Kapono and marginalizes Sam (or his replacement.)
I see the numbers crunch, but love the talent level of the players getting minutes.
Sorry, Total Minutes with that rotation 2 years from now:
Iguodala:36
Young: 36
Holliday: 35
Sessions: 30
Brand: 30
Speights: 30
Smith/Sam/new C: 18
No minutes left for Kapono or Green.
Lou 25 Min... can't forget Lou.
That is a talented 7 man primary rotation, with 20 min left over for fringe players or developing new rookies.
Not a great shooting team, but lots of scorers and length. Lots of talented players who can thrive in the PO.
What do you think?
I'm really only comfortable with signing Sessions if we know for sure one or two of Holiday, Thad, Iggy and Lou will dramatically improve their three-point shooting. I'm hoping Kapono and Thad will be able to stretch the floor for the next two seasons, beyond that, they really need to develop a weapon from deep who they can keep on the floor. They seem pretty high on Holiday's jumper, actually, maybe he gets the repetition they've been talking about and becomes that guy. I think committing to Sessions for 5 years, $30M+ is too big a risk at this point, though.
But I agree, this is a solid rotation. A lot depends on who the center is.
Sessions .386 .176
Kidd .392 .406
Jack: .460 .363
Blake .406 .427
Outlaw .434 .377
Bibby .426 .390
Felton .417 .285
I honestly don't know what to think w/ Kidd. If the money was even, I think I'd prefer to play on a team on the rise in the East over a team on the slow fade to mediocrity in the West for my last couple of years. I believe his family is still in NJ, he's comfortable with both Eds (heard he talks to E.S. on the phone pretty regularly throughout the season). Maybe if a ring isn't in the cards, he likes the idea of playing in a system he knows, for guys he likes, near his family.
would they call him Pops?
He is 18 years older than Holiday and 16 years older than Young.
Almost sounds like a player coach... which has a nice ring to it if you ask me. Think he has interest in that direction- I would think Holiday would be a perfect pupil.
J.McNeal wasn!t drafted, he is a guy that somebody will scoop up but I guess we are young enough. John, Woodside signed with somebody, right.
Woodside is playing for a summer league team
summer league players do not have contracts
Andre Miller is leaving in a sign and trade with Portland (not sure for what). Rick Bucher from ESPN tweeted:
http://twitter.com/RicBucher
Yeah, just saw that. I don't think he's saying anything is imminent, just rumors that Portland would like to do that in a S&T, then sign Hedo straight up. Personally, I don't think they have the cap space to get both done. Could be wrong, though.
Is this the long rumored Blake & Outlaw for Miller? If it is I wonder if we could flip Outlaw for a SG or a C?
Outlaw could possibly be moved, but it would have to be a one-for-one trade, I believe. That's all you can do w/ a guy who was just traded, for a year, I believe.
I don't know, I mean, if the Sixers are willing to pay the lux tax this year, I'd be fine with it. Make the trade, then go after Gortat hard w/ the MLE. Blake and Outlaw come off the books next Summer. But if it's either a S&T like this with Miller, or using the MLE (for Gortat, or Bibby/Kidd), I'd rather they show some patience. See how the FA market develops.
I would MUCH rather sign Jack than Sessions...while Sessions might be more valuable in the first year of the deal, over the life of the deal, Jack's shooting, size and defense makes him a better fit over the life of the deal.
Understanding that they probably won't go after Gortat, I probably prefer seeing if they can get either Kidd (yeah, right...) or Bibby, and then the S&T for Miller for Blake and Outlaw/Webster. If they actually wanted to sign Gortat, I could probably live with somebody like Knight for one year...
It sounds like the Portland S&T may be happening, though...which I can probably live with.
Yup - ric bucher twits something that couldn't possibly be negotiated yet?
Sounds like a a 'this is what the blazers want to do' dream scenario - doesn't sound like anything is imminent unless Portland wants to risk sanctions for violating the free agency rule
I'd welcome tampering. Didn't the T-Wolves give up two first-rounders for tampering w/ Joe Smith?
2, maybe 3? No one got them though they just went away. Twits just limit what a guy can say - so buchers statement lacks any kind of indication of whether it's fever dreams, inside dope, or just something he's relaying from the radio.
Besides which, the suggestion S&T for Miller don't work :)