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The PG Market

Now that the draft has sorted itself out, and the Sixers have an apparent need for a veteran PG, let's take a look around the league and see who's going to be in the market for a PG, and which PGs are available.

  • Lakers - Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown (Restricted FA)
  • Magic - Jameer Nelson, Anthony Carter (Unrestricted FA), Tyronn Lue (Unrestricted FA)
  • Cavaliers - Mo Williams, Delonte West
  • Rockets - Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry
  • Nuggets - Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, Anthony Carter (Unrestricted FA)
  • Celtics - Rajon Rondo, Eddie House (Player option), Stephon Marbury (Unrestricted FA)
  • Hawks - Mike Bibby (Unrestricted FA), Jamal Crawford, Jeff Teague
  • Pistons - Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum
  • Heat - Mario Chalmers, Chris Quinn (Player option), Luther Head (Restricted FA)
  • Sixers - Andre Miller (Unrestricted FA), Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams
  • Mavericks - Jason Kidd (Unrestricted FA), Jose Barea
  • Spurs - Tony Parker, Jacque Vaughn, George Hill
  • Hornets - Chris Paul, Darren Collison
  • Jazz - Deron Williams, Brevin Knight (Unrestricted FA), Ronnie Price (Restricted FA), Eric Maynor
  • Trailblazers - Steve Blake, Jerryd Bayless
  • Thunder - Russell Westbrook, Earl Watson, Shaun Livingston
  • Wizards - Randy Foye, Mike James, Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton
  • Nets - Devin Harris, Keyon Dooling, Rafer Alston
  • Knicks - Chris Duhon, Nate Robinson (Restricted FA)
  • Bucks - Ramon Sessions (Restricted FA), Brandon Jennings, Luke Ridnour
  • Raptors - Jose Calderon, Roko Ukic
  • Bobcats - DJ Augustin, Raymond Felton (Restricted FA)
  • Bulls - Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Lindsay Hunter (Unrestricted FA)
  • Timberwolves - Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Sebastian Telfair
  • Grizzlies - Mike Conley, Marko Jaric
  • Suns - Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Goran Dragic
  • Kings - Tyreke Evans, Beno Udrih, Sergio Rodriguez
  • Warriors - Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, CJ Watson (Restricted FA), Acie Law, Speedy Claxton
  • Indiana - TJ Ford, Travis Diener (Player option), Jamaal Tinsley, Jarret Jack (Restricted FA)
  • Clippers - Baron Davis, Mardy Collins
Now, let's look at the teams who are most likely looking for a legit starting PG (Either to re-sign their own, sign a free agent, or via trade)

  • Philadelphia
  • Portland
  • Detroit
  • Dallas
  • Atlanta
  • New York
I put Atlanta on the list, but I'm not sure how they perceive newly-acquired Jamal Crawford. If they think he can handle the point while they bring Jeff Teague along, which is a possibility, then they can be removed. New York needs a point, but they're so obsessed with free agency next Summer, I doubt they're willing to spend now to fill the void. Of this group of teams, only Detroit and Portland have cap space, and Portland doesn't have much (maybe $8M if they don't make a qualifying offer to Channing Frye).

Now, here's the list of who I consider to be worthwhile free agent point guards. Meaning, guys who could probably handle a starting job, which is what the Sixers are looking for, I assume:

  • Jason Kidd
  • Mike Bibby
  • Andre Miller
  • Ramon Sessions
  • Jarret Jack
  • Raymond Felton
Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta and New York can only offer the full MLE, or work out a sign-and-trade. Philadelphia, Dallas and Atlanta could all simply re-sign their players, as well. Detroit seems to have bigger fish to fry. Most rumors have them pursuing Ben Gordon, possibly Carlos Boozer, maybe Hedo Turkoglu. I'm not sure how any of the veteran PGs would fit into their plans. Sessions is a possibility.

With Brandon Jennings going to Milwaukee with the #10 pick, I'd say it's a good bet that Sessions will not return to Milwaukee.

Charlotte will probably bring Felton back as well. Brown likes having multiple guys who can run the point and I don't see a huge market developing for him.

I'd say the odds are better than 50/50 that Bibby's days are done in Atlanta. Jack is a wild card, no way to tell what Indy is thinking. They may match an offer for him, or he may just play for the qualifying offer and test the waters next year as an unrestricted FA.

For me, the intrigue is going to come from Bibby, Kidd, Sessions and Miller. I assume Portland would like to have any one of them, and they have enough cap space to top the MLE, but I'm not sure they're willing to do it. They may be more likely to try to work a sign and trade, and save the cap space for a wing. Let's assume they do use the cap space for one of them, that would pretty much leave Dallas and Philly as prime destinations for the remaining three, possibly Detroit as well. The rub here seems to be that at least two of these guys are going to have to either re-sign with their current teams, or accept the MLE from one of the other teams in need of a point. There's also the possibility that a contender, like the Cavs, will try to lure someone like Kidd for the MLE to further their "all in" push for a championship with aged veterans.

From the Sixers' perspective, this is how I'd rank the possibilities:

1. Kidd for 2 years, full MLE (possible)
2. Bibby for 2 years, full MLE (doubtful, I think he wants more money, more years)
3. Re-sign Miller for 2 years, $8M per (this should keep them under the luxury tax. I don't go to three years)
4. Sign and trade with Dallas, we send Miller and Dalembert, we get back Kidd (signed to a two-year deal), Dampier, and a future pick.
5. Sign and trade with Portland, we send Miller get back Blake and Outlaw. Not ideal in my mind, but both are expiring contracts so they could be flipped. Blake could be a serviceable point for one season.

There's also another option. We could sink or swim with a PG platoon of Lou and Holiday this season. Maybe add a low-priced veteran like Brevin Knight to the mix and then save the MLE for another piece, like Gortat.

Thoughts in the comments, as usual.

by Brian on Jun 28 2009
Tags: Basketball | Free Agents | Offseason | Sixers |