The
NBA released the final salary cap, luxury tax and mid-level exception figures today, the first day free agents can sign contracts. After the jump we'll talk about the figures and try to nail down where the Sixers stand.
The NBA is in trouble. Maybe not from a "the league is going to fold" perspective, but absolutely from a teams are spending way too much money perspective. When we look at these numbers, you'll see what I mean.
2008-2009 Salary Cap: $58.68M
2009-2010 Salary Cap: $57.7
Change: -$980,000
2008-2009 Luxury Tax Threshold: $71.15M
2009-2010 Luxury Tax Threshold: $69.92M
Change: -$1.25M
2008-2009 Mid-Level Exception: $5.585M
2009-2010 Mide-Level Exception: $5.854M
Change: +$269,000
In a nutshell, the salary cap and the luxury tax rise and fall in direct proportion to how much money the league as a whole makes. The Mid-Level exception is the average salary in the league. When league-wide income is falling and the average salary is climbing, something has to give.
The drop in salary cap and luxury tax threshold were expected, but it's not this season that's really the issue. A drop of under 2% isn't going to kill anyone. A memo the NBA apparently sent out,
which ESPN got its hands on, is painting a much worse picture for the 2010-2011 salary cap. ESPN is reporting the memo estimates the salary cap will drop to somewhere between $50.4M and $53.6M this time next year. The luxury tax between $61.2M and $65M. If the luxury tax level drops to below where it was reasonable to project the salary cap level to be for 2010-2011, many, many teams are going to be scrambling. And many, many players are going to be exercising their team options and/or begging for extensions.
Let's table next year's discussion for the moment, and take a quick look at where the Sixers stand right now against the new cap/luxury tax numbers. Here are the players under contract and their salaries:
Elton Brand ($14,858,472)
Andre Iguodala ($12,200,000)
Samuel Dalembert ($12,125,694)
Jason Kapono ($6,212,960)
Louis Williams ($4,972,500)
Willie Green ($3,682,000)
Thaddeus Young ($2,105,400)
Marreese Speights ($1,685,280)
Jason Smith ($1,418,880)
Jrue Holiday ($1,261,900)
Minimum Player ($736,420)
Minimum Player ($736,420)
Total ($61,995,926)
Cap Space (-$4,295,926)
Luxury Tax Space ($7,924,074)
The Sixers currently have 10 players under contract, so two imaginary minimum contracts count against their cap space to bring the roster up to the minimum of 12. If they are able to re-sign Andre Miller for the reported 2-year/$16M preferred offer, they will only be able to sign two players to minimum contracts to fill out their roster (possibly 3 if 2 of them are un-drafted rookies).
If they use the full MLE on a player, the could also afford to use the bi-annual exception ($1.99M) and then sign 2 players to minimum contracts. Bringing the total number of players under contract up to 14.
That's where we stand, where we go from here is anyone's guess.
I have a stupid question about Dalembert. Every article I've read about trading him mentions his 15% trade kicker. But if it is Dalembert who wants a trade, and then sulks when he doesn't get it, why doesn't the orgnanization ask Dalembert to waive the kicker? I don't see how Dalembert could ethically demand a trade but not agree to waive the kicker. If the Sixers asked and he refused, Ed or someone else from the organization should point that out. (If for no other reason then to give me even more basis to boo him.)
There's complications to waiving the trade kicker
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q84
Thanks for the link- this part is fascinating: "The player is not allowed to waive more than the amount necessary to make the trade legal." That suggests the player association specifically negotiated for trade kickers to largely be non-waivable to prevent players from being pressured to waive them.
Of course they did - the players associations job is to get the players as much guaranteed money as possible.
The problem is WHY THE HELL did Billy King feel he had to give Sam Dalembert a trade kicker, seriously, no one else was going to over pay him the way the sixers did. One of kings bigger problems seems to be that he would more often than not 'negotiate against himself' paying higher for players when hes' the only bidder...the trade kicker on dalembert is just an extra kick in the nuts.
I'm no lawyer (is there a lawyer in the house?), but the way I read that is that the player isn't required to give up all of the kicker if that's the part that screws up the obligation to match salaries.
Def the kicker was a bad idea (certainly in hindsight) for a guy who hadn't proven much. I suppose it was only slightly better than giving him a trade veto but, again, you have to wonder what was going on in the negotiations that they felt this was necessary? Was some other team(s) offering the same??
Part of a Stefanski Q & A with reporers today from Orlando:
Q: Where do things stand as of right now with Andre Miller?
A: We have made an offer to Andy Miller [Andre’s agent] and Andre Miller. They’re looking for a better offer from other places. Right now, we’re in the mode to see if there’s a sign and trade that makes sense for both sides.
Q: Are you close or far apart?
A: I would say we’re far apart.
Q: Have you contacted any teams about a potential sign-and-trade situation?
A: A couple, but not a lot. Andy Miller (MIller's agent) is canvassing the league, trying to see if there’s a sign-and-trade that’s possible. I’ve talked to a couple teams, but I wouldn’t say anything is imminent.
Q: Is it the years or the money where you’re far apart?
A: It’s both.
Don't suppose anyone asked him about the cheap ass idiotic approach to the wasted opportunity that is summer league?
I'm wondering if their offer was really for 2 years, or if they only offered him 1 year/$8M. Looking at where the cap/tax are right now, and where they may be headed next year, they're going to be paying the luxury tax next year if they sign him for 2.
Don't know. Sixers don't like to say it was to save money, but why else would it be? And they're not even going to Vegas after two straight summers there.
Think Sixers are moving away from Miller with each passing day. Would call it 75-25 against that he's back next year.
Asked if there's anything to the Sixers-Blazers sign-and-trade rumors involving Miller. Was told there "never was on their (Portland's) part."
I expect Miller to take a while to find a team and maybe come back 'begging' to take a 2 year deal from the sixers.
Any mention of obtaining another vet PG - they cant' really be comfortable going to camp with one real point guard and one converted guard can they?
Heard they like Utah's Ronnie Price, but he's expected to re-sign with Jazz (even though they have Deron Williams and Eric Maynor).
Another quote from Stefanski:
"(Our interest in Miller) changes when the marketplace changes. The marketplace has changed dramatically, so it's changed for us, too. Andre Miller did a very nice job for us, but I think where we're stationed right now and (with the) type of team we have, to go long-term right now is not a prudent decision for our franchise."
Nothing to argue with there from my point of view. If/when Portland uses it's cap space, Miller's either going to absolutely need the Sixers to get more than the MLE from anyone in the league. Either from the Sixers directly, at whatever price they want to pay him, or through a sign-and-trade, which the Sixers have no obligation to cooperate with.
I agree that to go long term with miller is not prudent - hopefully he doesn't see two years as ong term :)
The price rumor is from early FA and I have to wonder why.
Was told the Sixers want a "Ronnie Price-type" of veteran set-up guy, so perhaps it came from there.
I'd prefer a brevin knight type of veteran guy who has a longer history - must be my bias
John/Brian,
Do the sixers get an actual off-season grade up to this point (or just an INC)? If so, what would you give them?
Well - here's how i'd look at it.
B for Jordan hire - brian maybe less - I like it though
A for draft night
D for summer league cheapness
(And no i didn't realize that was 'bad' along the way)
And for free agency - you can't really grade yet until they say 'this is the roster we are going to training camp with' - they are probably still trying to move sam but probably won't and like Brian said, only 10 players on roster, and need a few more...
And since i used to teach i'd actually weight things unequally - summer league maybe only 10% of the grade...so right now i'd say thaey'd have a solid B with free agency pending.
Hmmnnn...well, let's go move by move:
Kapono for Evans - I give it an A. Took back a little more money, but no more years. Got a shooter, cleared Reggie out. I give that move an A.
Drafted Jrue - I give this an A. Personally, I would've been happy if they traded up to get Jrue, the fact that he fell into their laps was a huge, huge coup in my opinion. I give that an A as well.
Coach Jordan - I give this one a C+/B-. Would've preferred a defensive mindset, but I'm glad they didn't go with someone like Marc Jackson or Avery Johnson. I see Jordan as an obvious upgrade to DiLeo/Cheeks. He brings in an offensive system that could turn the Sixers into a much more efficient offensive team. There's no reason to be down about this move at this point.
Summer League - F. Send your guys there to play together, or send them all to the shooting camp to work out together. Half and half just doesn't do it for me.
Free Agency - I'm going to give them a B so far. I wish they would've gone after Gortat hard, but beyond that, I don't have a problem with anything they've done. They haven't folded to Miller's demands. They shouldn't have topped what ATL gave Bibby (in years or money), so you can't fault them for Bibby. The truth is, there really wasn't a perfect fit out there (outside of Gortat) who they should've been aggressive with. I'm fine with patience, I'm actually fine with going into the season with this roster and a few smart pickups later in the Summer. The only way this turns to an F is if they decide to do something stupid, like overpay for Anthony Parker for more than 2 years.
Overall - I'm giving them a B. They did nothing to hurt the team, they added shooting, they added their PG of the future (hopefully). It could move up to a B+ if they're patient and able to grab a couple of gems for less than the MLE on short contracts as free agents start to scramble later in the Summer.
"if they're patient and able to grab a couple of gems for less than the MLE on short contracts as free agents start to scramble later in the Summer"
Looks like this might be possible more than ever before. It'll be fun to see who they can grab. Gotta say, if Jarrett Jack would take $7 or $8 million spread over two years, they'd have to consider forgetting about Miller and signing him. Hell, Willie makes about that much and Lou makes much more. Just my humble opinion... of course, I have no way of knowing what Jack expects to get for his services.
Isn't Jack a restricted free agent - 2 years for less than the MLE? Wouldn't Indiana just match that?
Yep, he's restricted. I don't see that as a reason not to offer a fair contract, though. If they match, they match. I'd probably be making low offers to a bunch of restricted FAs. If you get them fine, if not, if they don't you've got a guy on a decent deal.
Well i wouldn't make an offer that I'm sure another team is going to match - and a low ball deal like that to jack would almost assuredly be matched...if i'm going to try and get him on a low ball deal like that i approach the pacers about a sign and trade and see if they ahve any interest (doubtful) on the tradeable assets on the sixers roster
Beyond that initial flurry, I think most of the free agents are going to wind up seriously adjusting what they expect to be paid for their services. These stories about how drastically the cap could fall next season are going to have an impact on what players sign for this Summer, even more so than have already.
I totally forgot about Kapono for evans, i'd probably give that an A since they got anything for evans :)
I can't believe Im about to do this but i'm about to put the summer league stream on my headphones at work - damn i want basketball back
A prediction: more turnovers than assists for the third game in a row. It's more than a little sloppy.
Un surprising - it's pick up ball - a split squad - it's terrible - even Jordan said he didn't like it - the sixers should be ashamed of their skin flintness instead of maximizing this HUGE opportunity for Holiday and Speights to get some work in with Jordan.
Idiocy
I agree. The split team takes any real value out of this for either team. The only ones helped (maybe) are the fringe guys who need to chuck it to get some attention.
Rumor that Larry Ellison might want to buy the Golden State Warriors.
Sigh, why can't the sixers get one of the richest people (and one of the most compettive) in the world to buy out bottom line comcast
I'd rather Ronnie Price or some other vet min guy who would actually help Jrue (and Lou) with their games than get Miller back. Andre Miller doesn't stike me as someone who is going to help his successors get better. He hasn't shown any inkling of that in the past.
Anyhow, someone (John or R&S?) posted a link about Chauncey Billups career on an earlier thread. If you read the article, Chauncey credits almost his entire development to Sam Mitchell and Terrell Brandon taking him under their wings and them showing him how to be a point guard and run a team. That is what Holiday (and by extension, the Sixers) need right now. Not someone in it for themselves.
I thought Miller did a good job while he was here but the Sixers have moved on.
It sounds like whatever the Sixers do (even signing only 1 yr deals) they will be over the tax next summer. This is potentially very bad news moving forward.
Iguodala and Brand were signed to 160M of contracts under the assumption that the tax would raise each year to help accommodate their escalating salary. With a shrinking tax level their combined contracts could exceed 50-60% of the Tax (let alone cap) over the course of their contracts. This would effective sink any chance of upgrading the team through FA. They may even start selling 1st round picks or dumping good players like how Camby was unloaded last year.
They won't eat up that much of the tax until 2011-2012, and I believe this CBA will expire before that season. Meaning we'll either have a strike, or some other kind of cap/tax. This also assumes that the BRI will continue to plummet, which would be pretty hard to fathom, unless the country falls into another Great Depression.
Ultimately, I believe if the Sixers continue to progress toward a championship, ownership will be willing to pay the tax. If they make no improvement, or regress, then yes, we could see some (more) dreadful cost-cutting moves. No one wants to see that.