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The Sixth Ten

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Six wins, four losses. Can't say I saw that coming in games 41-50, not even close. As this strange and disappointing season unfolds, educated guesses seem to resemble the noun a whole lot more than the adjective. Anyway, after the jump we'll take a quick look back and a long look forward.
Before we look forward, let's take a look back. Here are the advanced stats for the past 20 games. At the bottom you'll see the season totals as well as the numbers for the past 10 games.

http://www.depressedfan.com/img/advancedstatsgame50020810.gif
Two things jump out at me right away when I look at the previous 10 games (6 wins, 4 losses). First, the Sixers played three outstanding defensive games. Not just good by their standards, but great by anyone's standards. In fact, only the Indiana and Lakers losses were poor defensive games. If you're looking for a statistical reason for the improved play, I'd look at opponent's eFG (down 2.6% from the season average) and defensive rebounding (up 4.1%). The defensive rebounding especially has been stellar. 75% is good, they were at 77.2%.

If you were one of the two people who voted 6-4 in the poll leading into these past ten games, congrats. 83% of voters, myself included, had them finishing below .500.

And finally, let's take a look at games 51-60 on the schedule.

  1. vs. MIN (2/9) - This is one of two gimmes on the schedule. Of course, Minnesota has already beaten the Sixers this season, but I'll go with a win.
  2. @ TOR (2/10) - The big momentum test. I'd love to call this one a win, but the Sixers are traveling on the back end of a b-to-b, while Toronto will be well rested waiting for them. Toronto is also 5 games over .500 and seems like a lock for the playoffs after a slow start. Loss.
  3. vs. MIA (2/16) - Coming out of the break I see them opening up flat against a disinterested Miami team. Loss.
  4. vs. SA (2/19) - San Antonio will be in the middle of their rodeo trip. The Sixers always play well against the Spurs. This is the day after the trade deadline, so assuming no deals are made, I'm calling this a win.
  5. @ CHI (2/20) - Both teams will travel to Chicago for the back end of b-to-b's. I think the Bulls have enough to defend their home court. Loss.
  6. @ GSW (2/23) - Has to be a win, just has to be. Win.
  7. @ PHO (2/24) - FU game for Iguodala if he's traded to Phoenix. We're assuming he hasn't been traded for the purposes of these predictions, though, and I don't like the Suns on the 2nd night of a b-to-b. Win.
  8. @ LAL (2/26) - Loss.
  9. vs ORL (3/1) - Loss.
  10. @ ATL (3/3) - Loss.
So there you have it, 4-6 by my calculations. Vote below and leave your thoughts in the comments.


by Brian on Feb 8 2010
Tags: Basketball | Predictions | Sixers | Ten Games at a time |