Much like Mo Cheeks before him, Eddie Jordan's finger has been dangling millimeters above the panic button for most of the season. When he presses it, Andre Iguodala goes back to SF, Thad goes back to PF, and again we're robbed of a decent look at how those to can coexist on the wings. Since we've got 21 games of data, and we may not get too much more, I thought now would be a good time to assess how Iguodala has performed when he's played the two.
Let's start with a split using the rotation data I've been compiling all season long:
In 13 of 21 games, Iguodala has played 30 or more minutes at the two. Meaning, he played the two most of the game. These are his cumulative numbers from those games (per game):
- 7.6 FG/17.1 FGA (44.6% FG%)
- 1.6 3P/4.46 3PA (36.2% 3P%)
- 3.9 FT/5.46 FTA (71.8% FT%)
- 7.38 rebounds (6.46 defensive)
- 5.77 assists
- 1.92 steals
- 0.2 blocks
- 3.3 turnovers
- 20.8 points
In the other 8 games (playing fewer than 30 minutes at SG), meaning he played a huge chunk of his minutes at the three or four, these were his cumulative numbers (per game):
- 5.9 FG/14.9 FGA (39.5% FG%)
- 1.0 3P/3.5 3PA (28.6% 3P%)
- 5.0 FT/5.9 FTA (80.9% FT%)
- 5.75 rebounds (4.75 defensive)
- 5.75 assists
- 2.38 steals
- 1.4 blocks
- 3.13 turnovers
- 17.5 points
This is far from a perfect metric to use. What we're looking at here is the cumulative effect of Iguodala playing heavy minutes at the two within a certain game, and those heavy minutes' affect on his total numbers. There are way too many variables (like the affect of playing a big lineup, period. When he's at the two, they're running big for the most part. If the big lineup works better, his numbers will probably be better). I'm also crediting all of his stats from the game, rather than simply breaking out his stats when he's at the two or the three (or the one or the four). There's a stark difference here, and I believe it can at least partially be attributed to consistent minutes at the two, and the mismatches playing SG with his size and strength causes, but it's not definitive.
Luckily,
82games.com does break down stats by position played, so let's take a look at what they have to say:
As SG, 52% of total minutes (numbers are per 48 minutes)
- 19.6 FGA
- 0.467 eFG
- 6.5 FTA
- 8.9 REB
- 8.5 AST
- 4.0 TOV
- 0.9 BLK
- 2.1 PF
- 22.9 Points
As SF, 27% of total minutes (numbers are per 48 minutes, again)
- 19.3 FGA
- 0.461 eFG
- 7.0 FTA
- 7.0 REB
- 4.7 AST
- 3.8 TOV
- 0.9 BLK
- 2.8 PF
- 23.5 Points
If you go a step further with 82games.com's numbers, you'd see that Iguodala is also a much more effective defender at the two, but I think those numbers can't be trusted when we're talking about the Sixers and their useless rotation schemes. Playing within that system means other guys are going to wind up responsible for your man quite frequently, and vice versa. I've yet to see Igudoala lose a one-on-one matchup this season, and as usual he's taken the toughest wing assignment regularly.
Alright, so a couple of takeaways from this exercise, at least in my mind.
- When Iguodala settles into the two spot in the lineup and plays there for more than 30 minutes, he's much more effective. He shoots better from all distances, he gets others involved more, he scores more efficiently.
- The overall numbers also trend heavily toward Iguodala being better when he plays the two. They're closer, but again he's more efficient, rebounds better hands out a ton more assists, etc.
- The +/- numbers aren't great with him at either position, but they are significantly better when he's at the three. Mainly because the team defends at a much higher rate with him at the two than the three. This isn't purely about Iguodala, considering they're running with small lineups AND they have Willie Green on the floor more often than not when Iguodala is at the three.
Is there a definitive answer here? No, definitely not. It's too early to tell and we haven't even begun to quantify Thad's contributions at the three vs. the four, but through this 21-game stretch, all the numbers seem to point toward Iguodala himself and the team being better off with AI9 at the two. Most importantly, there is absolutely no statistical evidence to support the notion that Iguodala "Can't play the two," or the Sixers need to move him back to the three. Any move in that direction would be counterproductive, in my opinion, and a clear sign that the team's weaknesses are being blamed on arbitrary factors without any deep thought or research backing to back them up.
That being said, I won't be shocked in the least if/when Jordan finally makes this switch.
It looks like Jrue will be available tonight, I'll have the preview and game thread up some time after 5pm.
Iggy at SG, Thad at PF: -6.3 points per 48 minutes
http://nba.phillyarena.com/rotations/saved/20/viewlog/
Iggy at SF, Thad at PF: -5.6 points per 48 minutes
http://nba.phillyarena.com/rotations/saved/21/viewlog/
Iggy at SF, anyone at all at PF (meaning not necessarily Thad): -15.6 pp48:
http://nba.phillyarena.com/rotations/saved/22/viewlog/
Great research per usual, Brian.
I have gotten tired of the meme about needing a "classic" 2G. There are teams that have thrived w/o a great deep shooting off-guard(Drexler's Portland teams, Dwayne Wade's Miami team, Jordan's 1st 3-peat Bulls).
If Jrue can evolve into a proficient shooter from deep and Thad's percentage continue to stay above 40%, then Iguodala's performance becomes a non-factor, not to mention the fact that 3-point shooting can improve even well into a player's career(see Kidd's late-career transformation from Ason to Mad Bomber). Iguodala does need to improve his post game, but I don't believe that he won't.
You add this to the fact that Speights is most likely the Big of the future(and, by all accounts, has legit deep range), then Andre's inability to impersonate Ray Allen is not needed.
Since we're talking about two guards, compare Kobe's age 26 season to Iguodala's so far.
Their percentages are eerily similar pretty much across the board, and this was Kobe's 9th season in the league, it's only Iguodala's 6th. Kobe scored more points, basically because he was a huge ball hog that year, otherwise, but Iguodala's numbers still weren't far off.
Wow, that is similar.
Dre is more of the jack-of-all trades type of swingman, in the Drexler/Pippen mold, but people don't remember that Jordan and Kobe were not major high-percentage shooters from deep.
Iguodala is not a 25 PPG type, but this team will be better for it, with players like Thad & Speights on it. Just hope the team lets them grow together, doesn't make any rash moves
Interesting analysis. Thanks. The problem though, as I'm sure you're aware, is that he never plays the 3 with Brand and Sam on the court. So it's like comparing apples and oranges. Still, the higher FG% at the 2 is surprising and counter-intuitive. Is there anything to attribute that to beside being surrounded by better players?
Would love to see a lineup of Sam, Brand, AI9, Carney, Jrue protecting leads in the 4th.
Wow, I just checked the rotation chart and AI9 has played exactly 1:45 the entire season as the 3 with Sammy at the 5 and EB at the 4. One brief run, which was marred by a back court of Willie Green and Royal Ivey.
You'd think with the amount of clunkers this team has turned in that he'd at least give every possible lineup a decent shot, especially one that features your top three defenders at the two forwards and center.
My best guess for his better shooting numbers at the two is that he has a physical advantage over just about every SG in the league. He doesn't have to worry about getting his shot off, when his jumper isn't falling, he can drive past them or overpower them. He has some advantages over threes, but not to the extent that he outclasses most twos in size and athletic ability. That and possibly the extra attention paid to Brand down low (and teams do pay extra attention to him, no matter what anyone says).