Being young and deep should give the Sixers a big advantage over most teams during the upcoming insane 66-game schedule. With little turnover, a system in place and fresh legs, they should be able to weather stretches like the 21 games they'll play in the first 36 days of the season better than most, but there's a big problem lurking, and it's one the team did nothing to prepare for.
The Sixers have eight legitimate rotational players in Jrue, Iguodala, Turner, Lou, Thad, Meeks, Brand and Hawes. If we're talking about minutes on the perimeter, they should be perfectly find piecing minutes together between Jrue, Turner, Iguodala, Meeks and Lou. That group should be able to weather a back-to-back-to-back without a significant dropoff. The problem, and it's a big one, is at the five.
In their top 8, they've got two guys who can play the five, Hawes and Brand. Last season, Doug Collins could use Brand at the five for long stretches. In fact, Brand played 1,176 minutes at the five, nearly 40% of his total minutes (including the playoffs). Whether or not playing the five takes more of a toll on Brand's body isn't the issue. It's the total number of minutes he's playing. Last year, he averaged 34.7 minutes a night. I just don't see how he's going to be able to handle that kind of workload with so few off days this summer.
If Nikola Vucevic winds up being serviceable to the point where they can get a consistent 10-15 minutes/night from him at the five, things will be much easier for your typical game, but that's a huge if at this point. Vucevic had a couple of nice plays in the two preseason games, and a number of plays where he looked completely overmatched. The athleticism doesn't seem to be there, which may or may not be a dealbreaker, but when you couple the limited physical tools with rookie mistakes, you're left with a huge liability in the middle.
Tony Battie can give you limited minutes from time to time, but nothing you can bank on. And of course, there's always Marreese Speights, who responded to Collins saying he had an inside track on the rotation with another dud of a game against the Wizards. You can't count on either of those guys.
It all comes back to Brand and Hawes. Brand probably isn't going to physically be able to handle as much of a workload as he had last season, let alone more. Hawes, well, he's got issues of his own. Last season, Hawes averaged 21.2 minutes per game, but played 30+ minutes in only 8 games (the Sixers were 6-2 in those games). Conversely, he played less than 15 minutes 15 times (they were 5-10 in those games). I'd say among the regulars last season, Hawes' minutes were a direct reflection of his performance more than any other player. The splits are pretty dramatic, 5 games under .500 when he played 15 minutes or less, 5 games over when he played more than 15.
If it seems odd that the team's worst player in their regular rotation's performance seemed so tied to the team's success, that's a testament to the team's lack of depth at the five and the price they wind up paying when they have to rob Peter to pay Paul (move Brand to the five to strengthen that position).
Doug Collins has a few options here, and he's probably going to have to evaluate the decision on a game-by-game basis.
- Cross your fingers and hope Hawes is playing well enough to stay on the floor for 30 minutes, then steal a couple with Vucevic and keep Brand's time at the five down to below 10 minutes, and his total minutes closer to 30 than 35.
- Hope the Voose comes along very quickly, to the point where you can go to him if/when Hawes falters so you can count on 40-ish minutes from that duo.
- Play small. Keep Brand's minutes closer to 30, but use 20+ of those minutes with Brand at the five instead of the four, and play small. Usually with Thad at the four, but you can rotate Nocioni, Brackins or even Iguodala at the four as well.
Personally, I'd almost prefer to see him go with option three. Pretty much without fail, the Sixers best rotations last year featured Brand at the five and Thad at the four. Unless Hawes or the Voose greatly surpasses expectations, I'd eschew conventional wisdom (and conventional lineups) and go with the unit that gives me the best production for the limited minutes Brand is available to me (according to my rotational data from last season, the Sixers were -56 with Brand at the four last season, and +195 with him at the five). It would've been nice if they had addressed this problem in some meaningful way in the offseason, but they didn't address any problems in the offseason, so we're probably going to find ourselves in the same boat.
Your thoughts and concerns on the five spot in the comments. Also, Derek Bodner and I will be hosting our first episode of SixersBeat tonight at 9:30pm, Eastern. Check back for the link late in the afternoon, but if you have any questions/comments/concerns you'd like us to answer/discuss during the show, leave them in the comments here.
"the Sixers were -56 with Brand at the four last season, and +195 with him at the FIVE"
think that's what you meant?
They were -56 with Hawes as the five.
This season it looks like he's gotten a little bit better in the rebounding department, but he will remain a liability.
Vucevic has already proven in preseason to be a better defender and rebounder. The sooner that he can learn the offense and be a regular rotation player, the sooner Hawes can be replaced and the Sixers can take a step forward as a contender.
how did you get that vucevic is a better defender and rebounder? his 2 rebounds in 17 mins/game?
I don't know what it is about our replacement level centers that elicits weird, fringey opinions from people.
About the game tonight, Paul seems a little out of sorts so far in LA, but Griffin's going to have a monster year. They have defensive issues they need to address there if they want to contend, though. Jordan's a highlight-reel shot-blocker, but he doesn't seem to be much of a positional defender.
Vucevic had more rebounds per minute in the second preseason game.
He also has a much larger wingspan than Hawes and can jump higher, making him already a better rebounder and shot blocker.
Being taller and able to jump higher doesn't automatically make you a better rebounder or a better shotblocker. Kevin Love is the best rebounder on the planet and there are about 100 guys in the league who are taller and can jump higher than him.
Good catch, this is fixed. It's +195 w/ him at the five.
Hawes was -52 in total last season, and he only played the five.
It kinda shows how week the center position is league wide if Brand can play that many minutes at the 5 spot. If you can get productive reserve minutes out of a 6'10 Elton Brand at 32, a 21 year old 7 foot Nick Vucevic should be able to do the same or better.
I'm just hoping that Collins doesn't shatter the rookies confidence early like he did Turner last year. He's already stated that he doesn't want to rush Vucevic. With such a tight schedule he's going to have to be productive early and often.
I am inclined to agree with Collins on this one. I like his attitude on defense but unless something changes fast, he cannot play C in an NBA game.
Brian's words elucidate my concerns best; but when you couple the limited physical tools with rookie mistakes, you're left with a huge liability in the middle.
Yeah, if a 6'10 aging former all-star/all-nba 3d teamer can hack it, then why, any random young 7 footer can do. We should just bring in Brian Zoubek - bet he could do the same or better than brand.
Here is some homework for you, name me one backup center in the NBA that you can say is hands down better than Vucevic? Then name me player who are listed as centers are "true" centers?
And notice everything you stated about brand was preceded by the word "former".
I'd say there are 8 teams with a situation at backup center that's worse than having the Voose as your backup. 7 teams don't really have a backup center (HOU, CLE, IND, LAL, MEM, NYK, WAS) and the 8th team has Eddy Curry as their backup.
Of course, a lot of those teams have PFs they can slide to the five to spell their starter.
The Voose is really nothing right now. He's got physical limitation that he may overcome, eventually, but in the two preseason games he played, he was a terrible rebounder and a really poor defender. He made one or two decent plays on the defensive end and showed one quick-ish move in the post in the last game, so maybe there's hope, but not much.
I remembered how you cried like a baby on draft night when Vucevic was chosen so I'm finding it hard to take you evaluation of him as unbiased/fair.
My point is you dont have to be an elite athlete to be a productive center in this league simply because there aren't many productive center period. Starters or otherwise.
Just look at Javale Mcgee as an example. You cant get a better athlete at center but his carreer numbers are very pedestian.
I hope our 2nd unit's offensive capabilities allow Vucevic to play 8 to 12 minutes a night as the ultimate role player.
Solid defensive rotations, screens and limited touches with our trio of Thad,Evan and Lou limiting his offensive responsibilities , similar to what Iavoroni did a few seasons ago.
1. Hawes had a career year in terms of rebounding, and he looks like he will be even better this year. He was a bad rebounder in Sac, and a bit abvoe average last year. But Hawes does not contest shots well and cannot play the pick and roll.
2. Voose atually seems more mobile than I expected. He lacks explosiveness but does not seem overly plodding. And his long arms seem to disrupt shooters more than Hawes with his T-Rex arms. Hawes is taller than Voose, but has 8 inches less standing reach....
3. My biggest concern with Voose is that he seems weak on the D-Board and useless on the O-Boards. I actually expect that to dramatically improve as he adjusts to the NBA game, but it could take 1-2 years (Much like Hawes rebounded poorly his first few years.)
Do you think 20% DREB is average for a center?
20.8
http://www.hoopdata.com/advancedstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=C&yr=2011&gp=0&mins=15
Hawes 22.6 per that site.
That's bad. So essentially, the average center gets 1/5 of the available defensive rebounds, or the perfect share of what the team should get. I guess a bit higher if you consider the team DRB% should be 75-80%. Kind of illustrates just how dominant Dalembert was on the defensive glass his last couple of years in Philly.
The other night afte Mcgee's monster dunk on the rook, he continued playing through like nothing happened. He doesn't appear intimidated, whatsoever. His lack of athleticism doesn't help him protect the rim but his defensive effort, intelligence/maturity(for his age) and Ball skills, I think, will get him limited minutes in the rotation(8 min a game?). So, at center, Hawes(3o-32min), Elton(10-12) and Vuce(6-8) sounds about right to me.
The PA announcer did not announce Vuce's first appearance on the home floor. Somehow, the rookie/veteran(?) PA announcer missed him entering the game. In general, I like TL's style and genuine enthusiasm. He made some mistakes but he seems real, not using a schtick like the previous guy.
I don't see how you can expect Hawes to play 30+ minutes/game.
Hoping he will be improved physically and play consistant ball. Looking for 11 pts & 9 plus reb's a game. Gotta Believe!
Off topic, but one encouraging thing to me in the two games was Turner. He is getting to the line, which this team badly needs. If he keeps his aggression up over the haul, he is going to turn out just fine.
Jrue, Lou and Turner combined to go 22/24 from the line in that last game. Definitely need to see more of that.
Hey Brian,
I might be missing the point about the New Comments widget button on the left hand side, but the number stays at 0 despite there being new comments on a thread? Or does this only reference comments made by me?
The number in the box is the number of new comments since you loaded the page. Meaning, it's the number of comments waiting to be read that you can't see. If you click the number, it will reload the page, and the new comments will be there, and will be marked unread. It updates every 30 seconds and checks if there are new comments waiting in the system that you aren't seeing. It's best used during game threads.
Gotcha. I was hitting refresh on my browser as opposed to waiting for the number to update itself.
Brian
You figure out how to watch all the christmas day games yet? If so, you going to have a running thread for them?
I'm going to be in and out all day. We're having both families over some time in the afternoon, so those will be hit or miss, but by the time the night games start my wife will be exhausted and happy for me to be distracted, so I should be fully in for those. I'll have a thread up, definitely. Going to be a great sports weekend.
And the eagles STILL HAVE A SHOT :)
Ugh. Jrue's achilles better not linger. From Mike Preston on Twitter:
ESPN award predictions:
Coach of the year: Collins got one vote (of 30). Vinny Del Negro got 2.
Rookie of the year: Zero votes for the Voose.
Defensive POY: Zero votes for anyone on the Sixers. Tony Allen got a couple, as did DeAndre Jordan. Mostly Dwight.
Sixth Man of the year: Two votes for Thad, none for Lou.
Most Improved: One vote for Turner.
MVP: Zero votes for the Sixers. Only LeBron, Durant and CP3 received votes. Not a single vote for Rose to repeat.
No, two for Collns. McMenamin and Forsberg.
You're right, I missed the first one.
The Clippers hype got out of hand very quickly.
Two of ESPN's brighter commentators, Coon and Arnovitz, predict Thad will win Sixth Man of the year. Hollinger and ten others pick Harden. 2 people predicted Collins will be COY. Jon Barry predicts DPOY for DeAndre Jordan. Remind me to mute him when he talks.
Jon Barry also predicted ET to be Most Improved.
He's starting from a very low floor, but I fear that's also way off.
Fesenko is still a free agent, how about adding a big white center to the mix who can actually defend? Does this franchise have something against bigs who can defend or something?
They traded that guy for Herbert Hill or Derrick Byars after originally drafting him didn't they?
If he had a reputation of setting soft screens, loving the mid range game, willing to jack up a 3 every once in a while, AND could play defense, maybe.
Thorn on 94.1.
He talks a bit about Hawes' approach to free agency, "I'm worth more money and I'm going to find someone to give it to me....whoops."
Brook Lopez - foot surgery :)
You're a horrible person
While your opinion of me matters as much as whether or not mars has water, the smile was meant to be about the nets chances of getting howard, since they revolve around brook lopez (and FIVE first round picks) - I should have been more clear. I'm not happy brook lopez got foot surgery
And besides, he still gets paid all his money and it's just foot surgery - it's not like his life is endangered right?
I have the same reaction I always have when a player on a rival team gets hurt. Fuck him.
I just thought all the dwight howard hype made it funny that the 'key' piece was now down with another injury (he was injured last season too)
I expect that when Blake Griffin gets hurt again you'll smile too :)
I should have put a smiley face at the end of my sentence as well. I feel the same way.
Sorry, bad over reaction, job chaos going on - my future is in upheaval possibly - shouldn't post when that's going on :)
Unless anyone here knows a headhunter?
Thursday Sixers video: Lou Williams, Collins on Williams and Holiday not scrimmaging, and looking ahead to Monday's opener:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/sports/sixers/sixers-williams-collins/youtube_d853028b-64ef-539c-9f0c-45da840301ca.html
Glad he said they're working on plays against a zone. They looked completely unprepared for that in the last Wiz game. Sounds like Jrue and Lou are both fine, just taking no chances, getting them some extra rest.
Willie Green has found a home.
Veteran leadership!
Basketball Prospectus has the Sixers at 36-30 in their projections.
Exactly what I said on WIP this morning.
Their writeup is actually pretty good. He spends the last paragraph talking about the Sixers building their young guys up this year, enjoying some success, then making a move for Dwight Howard next summer if he isn't traded before then. That would seriously be the absolute best case scenario right now.
Pretty implausible too.
Aren't most absolute best cases pretty implausible? Killjoy
No, I'm killROY
Hey - FOx and TLC are firing Sarah Palin - it's a new day in america - EVERYTHING is possible
Well, Palin never had the greatest ratings.
No - Howard to the Lakers is the Lakers' best case scenario, not implausible in the least.
The Lakers best case is getting rid of Brown, getting Phil Jackson back and getting Dwight Howard. Highly implausible.
Well, if you want to get that picky, our best case might also involve replacing Doug Collins with some coach who's won a title. Collins is good but, never having broken through with Jordan, I have to think he's a second-tier coach.