The Mavs come in having won their past six games, the longest current streak in the league. The Sixers have taken down four in-a-row, the second longest. By 10pm tonight, one streak will have ended. Let's see if we can point out a few keys to help the Sixers keep theirs going.
I'm a little bit late with this preview, so just a few key points/matchups:
- Jrue vs. Kidd - Jrue can't lose track of Kidd. He's killed him in the past w/ threes. On the other end, Kidd has slowed down, a lot, Jrue needs to get into the lane when he's initiating offense. Blow by Kidd, get into the lane, get to the line.
- Brand vs. Dirk - Unfortunately, Brand probably won't have Dirk guarding him, Chandler will probably cross-match. On the defensive end, though, Brand's goal is to get Dirk to take shots from about 18-20 feet. Dirk is deadly on those shots, but it's still a much better option than letting him catch in the post or spot up from three. In the two-man game he runs with Terry, the best outcome is probably a long two for Terry, next best is a long two from Dirk. You have to give something, just be smart about it. On offense, EB should look to draw Chandler away from the hoop, opening up the paint for drives.
- Tyson Chandler - Chandler has either re-found his game, or he's simply trying this season to get an extension/new deal. Either way, he's been great for Dallas and he's going to be a handful for the Sixers on the glass.
- Terry vs. Lou - The up-and-coming sixth man vs. the veteran. Whoever wins this matchup may very well win the game.
There are so many fun matchups in this game, those are just a few I think could be key. Also keep an eye on Peja from three and Barea coming off the bench. Both of those guys have killed the Sixers in the past.
Prediction: DAL 103, PHI 98
Tip is at 7pm, game thread 90 minutes prior.
If the sixers can lose by only 5 I'll consider it an achievement.
When healthy this year the mavs are the best team in the league, and while they aren't fully healthy, at least they have dirk back
Its a good thing the Sixers have recently taken care of business with the bad teams- because tonight is going to be a big challenge. Chandler is the game changer in this match-up. If they had a lesser center the Sixers would be in much better shape.
I think the Sixers will have to shake things up. maybe go small (Iguodala on Dirk) and try and force Dallas to counter. I just hope it is not an uphill fight- which is always my concern since Hawes and Meeks are lousy starters.
Mavs are favored by 2, which really shows how far the Sixers have come. If you're looking for a factor in favor of the Sixers, the Mavs haven't faced a good defensive team since the beginning of February (Boston and Charlotte on Feb. 4-5). Sometimes it's a shock to go from playing bad defensive teams to good ones (a good example was when the Sixers played Memphis after playing Minnesota recently).
In terms of individual matchups, this is a game for Iguodala to be more aggressive looking for his own shot among the starters, especially if his jumper is "on" (no sure thing recently). Another important matchup is Thad vs. Marion off the bench; Marion is one of the few bench wings who can effectively defend Thad, so it will be interesting to see if Thad can still get his points. Barea has been on a hot streak for a month, so Lou can't fall asleep on him either.
Sigh, why am I a philly fan. So many good lines vs philly teams.
You know, if things aren't going well, I'd actually try going big when Marion comes in at the four. Something like Speights, Brand, Thad, Iguodala, Jrue or Turner. Make Marion guard either Brand or Speights, get Thad on their 3 (Peja?) and use the size mismatch of AI9 vs. Roddy or Jrue/Turner vs. Barea.
Dirk's FG%:
10-15ft: 50.6%
16-23ft: 52%
3pt eFG: 64%
He might be the only guy in the NBA who you don't wnat shooting 20 foot jumpers.
Trivia: Name the top 5 players in the NBA this year in FG% from 16-23 feet (min 3 attempts/game.)
Hint, Dirk is #2.
Ridnour used to always be up there.
Dirk's actually 3rd
Ridenour isn't on the list
Hint brian - you LOVE #5
Whoops - I was looking at shot attempts and not games played (which i assume factors into TK's thinking so dirk is #2 and the other player is #4 :)
Aldridge, huh?
Is Speights up there?
Min 5 games (which knocks Thornton off the list) and min 4 attempts per game:
1. Horford 56%, 4.7A/G
2. Dirk 52%, 6.3
3. Steph Curry 50%, 4.4
4. David West 49%, 5.2
5. KG 48%, 5.0
Notables:
6. Terry 47%, 4.7
7. Scola 47%, 4.9
8. Nick Young 46%, 5.7
9. Caron Butler, 45, 5.9
10. Gooden 45%, 4.3
So Dallas has 3 of the top 9 high volume, high percentage 16-23ft jump-shooters. And Peja is 50% on 2 Att/G.
So those 4 combine for nearly 19 attempts per game at about 50%.
Is that great/terrible offense or what?
I guess that's an offensive system designed to take what the defense gives you, and make something out of it. Probably exactly the type of offense they need to run, considering their dearth of perimeter playmakers.
But oddly, as a team Dallas averages only 18.7 16-23 ft attempts per game- only 23rd in the league. And the Soxers are 10th at 21.8/game.
Dallas has the right guys shooting these shots- with a leage leading 45.6%. The Sixers are a middle of the pack 39%.
The bigger question is, if those are the shots they want, and they shoot them at a high percentage, what should you do to stop them? I mean, it's Collins' philosophy to make teams take the long two, do you switch that up and crowd those guys on long twos, make them drivers instead? I don't really like that theory, because there's no weakside help, ever.
Just make sure those long twos are contested.
That's probably why they are winning. Its hard to take away that type of shot- even harder from a taller player like Dirk (or Durant.)
They key for Dallas is not that they take so many of these shots (because they take less than average)- its that they have the right guys taking them.
Sixers:
AI: 38%, 3.7
ET: 34%, 2.8
JH: 41%. 2.7
LW: 37%, 2.7
EB: 49%, 2.6
TY: 34%, 2.4
MS: 43%, 2.2
SH: 40%, 1.7
So if the Sixers played more like the Mavs, only EB (and maybe Speights) would take more than 2 of these long 2's a game.
Elton Brand is at 49% but a low attempt number
How about Willie Green?
44% on 2.9At
He was the best at this on the Sixers for several years. Right around 3 At/G, and improved from 38 to 42 to 26% his last 3 years with the Sixers.
Next question, If the Sixers are 10th and Dallas 23rd, who are the top 3 teams in most 16-23ft attempts a game?
Most long twos, I'm going to guess the Wizards, maybe the Lakers. Maybe Milwaukee.
WAS and MIA well ahead. Then ATL.