Let's play the what if game. We'll rewind the clock to game six of the first round of the playoffs against Orlando last season. Suppose the Sixers had actually decided to show up for that game, won a close one against a depleted Orlando squad before succumbing to the Magic in game seven, in Orlando. Where would we be right now if that had happened?
At the time, I was crushed by that loss, but in hind sight, I think the ramifications of it are still being felt. If the Sixers hadn't collapsed on that fateful day, I'd say there's better than a 50% chance Tony DiLeo would still be coaching this team. In fact, that's the scenario I want to run with for the purposes of this post.
Andre Miller's time was probably up in Philly no matter how last season ended. The team didn't want to commit to him for three years, someone else eventually did. Let's assume the other personnel moves would've happened the same way as well. Primoz probably wouldn't have been the big added to the roster if we didn't have a complete joke for a coach, but Primoz doesn't play anyway, so let's say that's a moot point. So same roster, only Tony DiLeo is coaching, what would the Sixers' record be? Here's my best guess (Thanks to Statman from the comments earlier for the idea for this post).
- @ Orlando (loss, 106-120 | 0-1) - I'm going to say this would probably have been a loss under DiLeo as well. Orlando is a strong team, although I think DiLeo may have been able to play the "redeem yourselves" card to some degree, I don't think it would've been enough. DiLeo's Record: 0-1.
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vs. Milwaukee (win, 99-86 | 1-1) - No reason to believe DiLeo would've had worse results than Jordan did against Milwaukee on this night. The Bucks played some horrible basketball. DiLeo's Record: 1-1.
- @ New York (win, 141-127 | 2-1) - Not only is this a win under DiLeo, but there's absolutely no way it gets to overtime. Jordan's rotations were absolutely moronic in this game. DiLeo's Record: 2-1.
- vs. Boston (loss, 74-105 | 2-2) - I'm going to say this is still a loss, but this game is where Jordan first began his crusade against Elton Brand. Of the three coaches who have been at the helm during Brand's tenure with the team, only DiLeo showed any clue as to how to keep the high-octane running game in tune and integrate Brand's skills. Unfortunately, he only had Brand's services for a handful of games (the Sixers were 4-0 in games coached by DiLeo when Brand played 20+ minutes). DiLeo's Record: 2-2.
- vs. New Jersey (win, 97-94 | 3-2) - I believe DiLeo recognizes the huge mismatches the Sixers have against a depleted Nets squad. There is no way in hell Elton Brand plays only 19 minutes when he's got Bobby Simmons guarding him for a large chunk of this game. The Sixers win this in a walk. DiLeo's Record: 3-2.
- @ Detroit (loss, 81-88 | 3-3) - No way the Sixers get murdered on the glass by Ben Wallace and Sam Dalembert only plays 14 minutes with no foul trouble under DiLeo. This is a win if DiLeo is the coach, he limits Speights minutes in favor of Sam. DiLeo's Record: 4-2.
- Phoeix (loss, 115-119 | 3-4) - 21 points and 20 assists for Steve Nash on the second night of a back-to-back. Lou Williams covering him for about 33 minutes. DiLeo recognizes that Lou cannot handle the assignment and switches things up. 15/30 from three for Phoenix. I'm calling this game a win if DiLeo is coaching. DiLeo's Record: 5-2.
- @ Nets (win, 82-79 | 4-4) - See notes above, this time Brand played 23 minutes, Jason Kapono played 25. DiLeo's Record: 6-2.
- Utah (loss, 90-112 | 4-5) - This game was the beginning of the end for Jordan. Utah was without Deron Williams and they absolutely had their way with Philly's defense. Brand played 24 minutes, Speights and Jason Smith combined for 43. I'm going to say it's still a loss under DiLeo, but this one is questionable in my mind. Maynor torched Lou Williams, at this point, I think DiLeo is questioning the viability of Lou as the starting PG based on his defense. At this point, I believe Jrue's is starting to see significant minutes. DiLeo's Record: 6-3.
- @ Chicago (loss, 88-94 | 4-6) - This game was lost on the offensive end. DiLeo probably has Jrue playing more than 6 minutes, but I'm going to say it's still a loss. Jordan trimmed his rotation and actually gave Brand and Sammy close to starter's minutes. DiLeo's Record: 6-4.
- vs. Charlotte (win, 86-84 | 5-6) - The Sixers barely hung on for this win, scoring only 34 points in the second half. DNPCD for Jrue for no apparent reason. DiLeo could've done better with his eyes closed. DiLeo's Record: 7-4.
- vs. Memphis (loss, 97-102 | 5-7) - Getting murdered on the boards, Jordan goes with a small lineup for 16 minutes, including 9 minutes in the third/fourth quarters with Jason Smith at the five and Rodney Carney at the four. DiLeo is not that much of a moron. DiLeo's Record: 8-4.
- @ Cleveland (loss, 91-97 | 5-8) - DNPCD Jrue, Mo Williams' line = 18/7R/5A/3s/1TOV. Take a look at what Jrue did to Mo in their next meeting. DiLeo could've made a difference here with smarter rotations, but I won't say it would've been a win. DiLeo's Record: 8-5.
- @ Washington (loss, 107-108 | 5-9) - Defense is putrid until Jrue comes in and lights a spark in the fourth quarter. Comeback falls just short. No way Lou Williams is at the point for an entire 40-point-allowed third quarter with a real coach. DiLeo's Record: 9-5.
- @ Boston (loss, 110-113 | 5-10) - I don't know if DiLeo would've gotten the Sixers to the 4th quarter with a lead in this game, the offense was really clicking. I do know that he wouldn't have used a front court of Jason Smith, Thad Young and Jason Kapono for a seven-minute stretch in the fourth quarter trying to protect that lead. I'm giving the nod to DiLeo in this one. DiLeo's Record: 10-5.
- vs. Atlanta (loss, 86-100 | 5-11) - More minutes for Kapono than Jrue. Small lineups galore. DiLeo had success vs. the Hawks last year, but the roster was pretty depleted at this point. I'll say it's still a loss with Tony. DiLeo's Record: 10-6.
- @ San Antonio (loss, 89-97 | 5-12) - 18 minutes for Jrue "the starter" Holiday, even though he stoned Tony Parker. I can't call a road game in San Antonio with a depleted roster a win under any circumstances, though. DiLeo's Record: 10-7.
- @ Dallas (loss, 102-104 | 5-13) - Wasn't as close as it the final score, but in desperate need of a stop at the end of the game Jordan trots out a lineup of Dalembert, Thad, Kapono, Iguodala, Green. Jrue and Brand remain glued to the bench. I was going to say DiLeo pulls it out if he's coaching a tie game in that situation, then I remembered the game they lost in Dallas last season, when he had Reggie Evans on Dirk for the game-winner. DiLeo's Record: 10-8.
- @ OKC (loss, 106-117 | 5-14) - This was the most disgusting display of defense I've ever seen. Jrue Holiday shut Russell Westbrook down and the team still had a defensive efficiency rating of 130+ and coughed up nearly 50% of the available defensive rebounds. Jordan's answer to the porous defense? Willie Green led the team in minutes and he never played Dalembert and Brand on the floor at the same time. DiLeo doesn't let a game like that happen, no chance. The sad fact is that even an average defensive game gets you the win in this one. DiLeo's Record: 11-8.
- @ Charlotte (loss, 105-106 | 5-15) - 40+ minutes for Willie, 0 rebounds. 17 minutes for Sam, 27 minutes for Kapono. Any wonder they gave up 106 points to the worst offensive team in the league? DiLeo's Record: 12-8.
- vs. Denver (loss, 83-93 | 5-16) - This is a loss no matter what, Iverson thrown into the mix (and played 38 minutes). DiLeo's Record: 12-9.
- vs. Detroit (loss, 86-90 | 5-17) - Iverson's 6 turnovers and 3/10 from the field don't exactly help in a close game. Loss for either coach. DiLeo's Record: 12-10.
- vs. Houston (loss, 91-96 | 5-18) - Jrue Holiday doesn't play the entire second half, Jason Kapono plays 10 minutes after the break. Aaron Brooks lights up Willie and Iverson throughout the second half. Doesn't happen to that degree with a real coach. Win with DiLeo. DiLeo's Record: 13-10.
- vs. Golden State (win, 117-101 | 6-18) - This game is a win with the any coach, at any level, anywhere. The Sixers could've started Primoz, Smith, Kapono, Green and Ivey and come away with a win. DiLeo's Record: 14-10.
- vs. Cleveland (loss, 101-108 | 6-19) - Small lineup + late offensive subs maybe doesn't cause the loss, but certainly doesn't help. Probably still a loss with Tony. DiLeo's Record: 14-11.
- @ Boston (win, 98-97 | 7-19) - Jrue playing the entire second half on-the-ball defensively may have something to do with this win. I'm going to say it's a loss with DiLeo as coach, simply because I can't believe they won the game under any circumstances. DiLeo's Record: 14-12.
- vs. LA Clippers (loss, 107-112) - DiLeo understands what offense/defense subs are meant to do. They get one stop they needed at the end of the game. DiLeo's Record: 15-12.
- @ Washington (loss, 98-105) - Perhaps the most poorly coached game of the season for Jordan. DiLeo pulls this one out easily against a hapless Washington team. DiLeo's Record: 16-12.
I realize there's nothing scientific about this post. I can't back up one shred of it with stats. All I can tell you is that I looked at the schedule, tried to figure out why the games were lost and stated my opinion on how things would've gone if we had a coach with half a clue calling the shots. 16-12 is my answer. Keep in mind, the Sixers have played 16 games against teams with a sub-.500 record.
Where do you think the Sixers would be right now, record-wise, if Tony DiLeo had never left the helm? Keep in mind he's got a full summer of preparation with the team and a healthy Elton Brand (after the first handful of games), two things he did not have last season as interim head coach.
I believe Thad went down in the Atlanta game last year? Came down on Josh Smiths ankle. Before that, this team had won 5-6 in a row, he was scoring up around 25 with ease, they were defending and rebounding, they went to Portland and LA and won big games. Dileo got a raw deal. I think this team would be at least .500 this year with Tony, and I feel like we would have seem some major progression from Thad.
Good post
I think they'd be right around .500 Defense has cost them so much early on, yet would Speights be allowed to go as nuts as he did early with a coach less willing to ignore his warts on D?
I also think Thad would be better, even back to that 20-point run he was on in March.
Brian, are you assuming we still sign Iverson?
I think the team would have won the games they were supposed to, like you had them winning, but just like beating the Celtics showed us, anything is possible. So I'd say chalk up one or two more wins based on spirited play and good defense, which we would see a lot more of with a decent coach and more than 10,000 fans a night.
I just assumed DiLeo would have the exact same roster as Jordan in every game. So yes, with Iverson, even though there's no way they stoop to that move if they're 10-7 at that point. Not a chance in hell.
I think losing Miller and then Lou was a huge blow. I doubt they would be above 500 this year with Dileo or any coach. that said, they've had an easy schedule.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi
SOS is exactly at 500
I think Brian is overly optimistic, I don't see this team above 500 by more than a game or so with even DiLeo coaching (the suns game - they'd still lose - piss poor 3 point defense is a hallmark of every coach since Brown)
Uh, isn't the SOS skewed a bit by the Sixers opponents being 14 games over against them?
Or maybe it's just the sixers suck?
I think you are correct. I may give one more win, but either way, no way would we be below .500.
This is getting more and more depressing! I guess you are living up to your name!
Thank you for giving us all a place to vent! When will this purgatory end with Jordan as the coach?????
We would not have felt the need to get Iverson as well with DiLeo so that Detroit game at home is probably a win.
Here is another great reason why Jordan. must go. According to John Hollinger, we are playing with the 4th slowest pace in the NBA. I hate Eddie Jordan, he ruined this team's offensive identity as well.
You know what's funny? Last season we played at a slower pace than you would've expected because our defense pressured the hell out of the ball, caused opponents to really work to get good looks and we dominated the offensive glass. This year, we're playing at a slow pace because we're putrid at controlling the defensive glass and every one of our half-court possessions involves about 10 seconds of useless dribble handoffs before we finally start looking for which guy is going to take the 20-foot jumper late in the clock. Brilliant.
That's the thing. I could care less about offensive half-court execution if the priority is defensive execution and rebounding. Then the coach could take the shackles off the team and let them run. People complained about DiLeo's half-court sets but I think if Brand was on the floor, he would have found a much better way to utilize him. Jordan has him playing like Kobe at the top of the arc and somehow EB is scoring the ball.I wish Brand was playing at his current level at then end of last year and we would have seen what happened.
The Sixers have had their share of bad coaches. But can't remember anyone reaching EJ's level of incompetence except maybe Lucas and Doug Moe.
Doug Moe actually had to be talked into taking the job and was only it for the check. He mailed it in because he was burnt out. Even Lucas had more success in his history. But this is Jordan, this is who he's always been. My vote goes to him
So the Sixers could be 16-12 instead of 7-21 with an INTERIM coach? Note the keyword "Interim" coach.
Imagine if they had a GOOD coach, they might be far better than 7-21 or even 16-12...maybe they'd be 21-7.
So the Sixers could be 16-12 instead of 7-21 with an INTERIM coach? Note the keyword "Interim" coach. Imagine if they had a GOOD coach, they might be far better than 7-21 or even 16-12...maybe they'd be 21-7.
This was exactly my point originally. I didn't think that highly of DiLeo, but in retrospect he was at least an average coach who recognized the strengths of his team and had them playing the type of ball that maximized their chances of success (wreak havoc by scrambling on defense, run whenever possible, get halfcourt shots off dribble penetration by Iguodala/Lou or Miller post-ups). Brian makes a great case that even an average coach could have this team at 16-12 (or, let's say conservatively, 14-14). So the Eddie Jordan Effect has turned a .500 team into a .250 team (40 wins to 20 wins over a full season). That's historically bad coaching, and I think we all agree that Eddie Jordan is a historically bad coach.
Then let's think about a "good" coach in the Sixers' recent past: Larry Brown. Love him or hate him, he's always gotten his teams to play defense with intensity. Take a look at the roster for his 02-03 team and tell me whether there was as much talent on that team as this team -- yet Brown got 48 wins out of them. That was a team that started a frontcourt of Kenny Thomas, Keith Van Horn, and Derrick Coleman (any defenders there?).
Now, Brown had a noted propensity not to play rookies, but something tells me he would have liked Holiday's game (though Speights might have been traded by now for somebody like Jason Maxiell). In any case, Larry Brown with this team? 18-20 wins easily, I think.
I liked Dileo as a coach and thought he did a good job with what he had last year.
If we have a fire sale of our big contracts like AI9, Sammy, and Brand, do you think that would that make us a player in this summer's free agent Lebron/Wade/Bosh extravaganza? If so, we might be at a point where the front office might want to think about that, also since that would increase our odds in the John Wall lottery.
Nick, let me ask you.
Why on earth would Wade, Bosh or Lebron want to play for Eddie Jordan??? Let's think about that before we talk about fire-selling big contracts.
In my mind, there's no way in hell either of those 3 franchise players would want to play for EJ. He's a loser, his team has a 7-21 record, and he has no clue how to coach.
I was assuming the coach going as part of the fire sale...
"Anybody see the latest Simmons Piece?
2009-10 payroll: $64.0 million
Projected 2010-11 Payroll: $65.3 million (OVER TAX)
• VP's Take: No chance of dumping Elton Brand or Sam Dalembert unless they include Andre Iguodala in the deal.
• Mitigating Factor: This is the same front office that A) spent $85 million on Brand, and B) took two weeks to realize that signing Allen Iverson might boost ticket sales and local interest. Not exactly a bunch of Mensa scholars here.
• VP's Verdict: Shop Iguodala-Brand-Dalembert for expirings. (Their only chance: If Wade threatens to leave unless Miami does something by the deadline, so Miami bites on an Iguodala-Brand-Dalembert for O'Neal-Haslem-Richardson. Odds of this happening: 10-to-1.) After every team hangs up, call an audible and shop Iguodala and Dalembert as a package. Iguodala isn't worth the franchise max for a bad team, but if he's your second- or third-best player on a contender with deep pockets, it's not the worst thing in the world. He's not making or breaking the Sixers. He doesn't sell tickets. Doesn't that make him expendable? Leading us to …
Fake Trade 11: Philly trades Dalembert, Iguodala and Jason Kapono's EC to Miami for the O'Neal/Richardson/Wright ECs. Philly ends up with their fifth overpaid has-been frontcourt player this decade (joining Mutombo, Webber, Coleman and Brand in what's becoming a tradition right up there with Easter and Thanksgiving); Quentin Richardson adds another team in his quest to play for all 30; Kapono ends up back in Miami, a nostalgic romp for all 43 Heat fans; and Miami becomes a fringe contender with a Wade-Iguodala-Dalembert-Beasley nucleus. This one makes too much sense."
Why do people keep insisting that Iguodala makes the Max?
Not to mention that Sam becomes an EC(a sizable one) next year. Its not like Comcast can't afford to wait a bit.
Would you say it's a good contract?
I would say it isn't a bad contract. He's paid, no "over" or "under" attached. Certainly not near a "max" deal. Considering he is one of the best 2-way players in the game...
If anything, I'd blame King for not giving in and offering the 5/60 that rumors say would've gotten it done.
Personally, I don't think Iguodala should have gotten any more than 5/60. They gave him the 80 million (whether its technically a max deal or not) to be the cornerstone of this franchise. Is the deal Rashard Lewis bad? No, of course not. But when I see guys like Granger and Smith signing deals for 5 years 60 mil around the time that Iggy signed, I can't say that Iguodala isn't overpaid.
The difference between 5/60 and 6/80 is maybe about 4 million, not enough to get worked over
Something is going to happen sooner rather than later, I can feel it. I just get the most nauseating feeling that is going to be in favor of an EJ related system.
I guess that depends on whether Ed takes his buddy's side or the side of his big signing.
Other players have made statements about the defense too, Dre and Green among them. It also helps that they are right
The nightmare scenario is that were going to move our young players in favor of veteran guys that EJ feels can help to run the Princeton, and also don't know how to play defense. Stefanski is probably dead set on making the iggy/brand duo work.
Don't get me angry. Things are bad enough.
I would be fine trading away Iguodala or Brand, if only to get out from under their contracts. Both are good players, but I'm not thinking their next 4 years here will be winning ones.
Simmons proposal seems kind of ridiculous to me, what team is gonna be willing to take on Brand AND Iguodala's contract over the next 5 years? What team could even afford to do that? But hey, if we can hit the reset button, Stefanski would be a fool not to do it.
If he begins to mold the roster to EJ's liking, I will renounce my sixers fandome, as painful as it will be I will not watch a team that collectively only plays one side of the ball for the next 5 years
Does Bill Simmons know that the sixers have been shopping Dalembert since February? No one wants him, he has no value for 'expiring' contracts, cause he lasts longer.
Look at the deal the Jazz just made this week, that's the kind of deal the sixers are going to make - giving up something to save luxury tax payments...no one wants sam dalembert, not even portland who is going through big men like willie green goes through knee pads