in the second half of games. Little did I know that a week later, he'd disappear completely. He still on the floor, sometimes too much, but he's been a complete drain on the team. After the jump, a look at how bad he's been, and maybe why.
It's pretty clear that Thad hasn't been himself over the past nine games, in fact, Thad's offensive production has been downright pitiful. Check out these splits. All stats are per 36 minutes:
Two things about this stretch really bother me. The first is the dramatic uptick in Thad's number of shots. He never, ever struck me as a gunner in the past, and the fact that he's trying to shoot his way out of this slump by taking more shots than usual is disconcerting. The second part is what he's doing with the ball when he isn't shooting. He's averaging 2.8 turnovers/36 minutes and his assist numbers are actually down from the first 29 games.
Let's take a step back and look at his effect on the team over the past 9 games. The Sixers, as a team, have had roughly 817 possessions on offense. Thad has been on the floor for roughly 56.7% of the team's total minutes over the stretch, so let's estimate that he's been on the floor for 463 possessions. Of those 463 possessions, he's turned the ball over 19 times, taken 103 shots, missed 87 of them, gone to the line 28 times, hit 19 of them. So he's used roughly 136 possessions (29.4%), and he's scored exactly 87 points with those possessions. Even if you add in his assists at two-points per possession, and give him credit for 2 points per offensive rebound (which is being way too generous), we're still talking about only 145 points in 165 possessions, or an offensive efficiency rating of 87.88.
Simply put, that's pitiful. That's worse than Willie Green at his absolute worst, bad.
The question then becomes, why? My first thought was that Allen Iverson's mere presence has thrown Thad out of whack. Iverson works really well with the bigs, he gets his own shot, but I had concerns about how Thad would get his looks if Iverson was dominating that ball. When I look at these numbers, though, I don't think that's it at all. It's not that Thad isn't getting his touches, in fact, he's getting more touches. The problem is that Thad simply isn't converting them.
My next thought was that he was settling for too many jumpers, but upon closer inspection, that's not the case either. In the first 29 games, 41.6% of his shots were at the rim, 15% from within 10 feet and 43.4% from outside of 10 feet. Over the past 9 games, 52.4% of his attempts have been at the rim, 15.5% inside of 10 feet and only 32.1% outside of 10 feet. A whopping 70% of his total made shots have come at the rim.
So he's been more aggressive, actively trying to get to the rim for his shot attempts, but he just cannot seem to convert them. I can think of a couple possible explanations, the first being the position change. He's spent the vast majority of his minutes at the four over the past nine games (in fact, he's only spent 19 of 245 minutes played at the three), meaning he's had bigger players on him. This isn't really anything new for Thad, he's played the vast majority of his minutes at the four over the past two seasons, but maybe the book is out on him down low. It's not difficult to figure out Thad shies away from contact in close, instead preferring to alter his shot to get it off clean. It's also no secret that he prefers to use spin moves to get to his left hand. If I'm writing a book on Thad, I'm telling my guys to crowd him, expect the spin, and always, always go for the block. Odds are, Thad won't go for the contact and draw the foul, but he'll drastically alter the shot, making it a much lower percentage attempt.
One quick fix would be to play Thad some minutes at the three and get him the ball in the post where he can shoot over his man, most of the time.
If you need a reason for optimism,
Tom Moore told us last night on SixersBeat that Thad's personal shooting coach,
Bruce Kreutzer from the Mark Price Basketball Academy, was in town on Tuesday working with Thad. Specifically, he was working on getting Thad onto the balls of his feet when he shoots his jumper, to get more lift on the shot and get it over the front of the rim.
I'm glad Thad's taking matters into his own hands and trying to get his shot straightened out. The kid seems like a hard worker, and I'm sure he's going to get through this rough patch, I just want to see a little more maturity from him while he's mired in it. Having a bad shooting stretch is a fact of life for young players, but compounding the problem by taking way too many shots isn't really acceptable, from Thad or from the coaching staff. If you want to break him out of it, create some favorable mismatches and get him easy looks early in the game.
My mean concern is to Know if the sixers staff Knows wath kind of player TY is. Everybody says he is a 3 who can play somatimes at 4; in three years in the NBA he has play 90% of time as a 4 and every summer he has worked to improve his perimetral skills. When ES will talk about money with TY will he Know the real value of him? This is a big question.
Brian, I think teams have prioritized him in their scouting reports more after his late run last year and taken more of his left hand away, plain and simple, and until he makes his right hand a threat, it will continue.
I would agree with that, but when I watch, I still see him get the quality looks he was getting beforehand.
Thad hasn't been taking awful shots...much. But he's been missing the bunnies. It seems like more of a concentration issue. I wouldn't be surprised if he was having girl issues.
They should try to offer him a lowball extension right away alla Eagles-style.
He's forcing it. Young is the type of player that relies on feeling in rhythm to hit his shots. He always has shown the propensity to look really bad for stretches even on simple layups and open jumpers. I remember his first summer league games when he could not even hit a layup, and then all of the sudden he was finishing high degree of difficulty shots 3-4 months later.
Its all still there, but he's lost on the floor right now.
@VioletStrawbery , if Thad is spending less time on basketball or is having girl problems I am willing to bet that she is the reason why.
Yeah but all of a sudden his rebounding numbers have gone up. Still, his free throw shooting is poor and he's missing a lot of easy shots I expect him to make.
And I wonder what happened to that first-year hustle. It seems to be gone for good, and it wasn't like he was playing for a contract yet.
That is contradictory. If he's not hustling what would attribute the increased steals and rebounds to?
In the short term his rebounding and steals have gone up. But I thought he put in more effort on the defensive end in his first year, maybe it was being hungry as a rookie. But this season he has been poor defensively, even when he's been playing at the 3.
I'm not 100% sure it's an effort thing. It may be more aggression than anything, he's trying out there, but he's shy of contact. The effort seems to be there on defense, but he just looks lost, like he needs clear direction. Who knows. I'm pretty confident he'll figure it out on the offensive end, I'm not as hopeful about defense right now.
3 coaches in 3 years, each one progressively worse and maybe it's the whole play calling thing...i go back to that quote before the memphis game, very troubling, about not remembering plays, in the basic system Jordan was trying to run at the time.
I don't think Thad is a guy you run plays for because Thad can't remember the plays...but playing the correct position and some coaching stability probably wouldn't hurt
But you know, truthfully, it is probably Iguodalas fault
"I don't think Thad is a guy you run plays for because Thad can't remember the plays...but playing the correct position and some coaching stability probably wouldn't hurt"
Wow, talk about basing a lot off of one quote. Just because the PO never saw the court doesn't mean they weren't TRYING to implement it during practice. I've heard 18,000 guys, in all sports, say "this is a complicated offense that takes some time to pick up".
But I"m sure that one quote overrides every other coach and scout I've ever seen interviewed about him. I'm sure they were all wrong and, because of that one quote, he's really an idiot.
Well we don't all have your 'inside' sources (so you say) that you have without any actual back up - I can only go on what i've read.
Thad saying it's hard to remember the plays during the game
Jordan saying they did try to implement a form of the PO early in the season
two previous coaches who said they don't run plays for Thad.
Of course, based on your lack of response, you probably agree that it's his girlfriends fault....
Derek - it's simple - just fuck off already you useless petty douche
I'm not going off of inside sources. I'm going off of public interviews with DiLeo, Stefanski (who interviewed him when he was with the Nets), and Paul Hewitt.
I'd point out the rest of the fallacies in your argument, but it's pretty obvious having an actual debate with you is something you're not capable of.
Every time somebody disagrees with you it's not over being petty. Last I remembered this is a discussion area. I respond to you exactly like I do with everyone else, which is to debate the post. You're the one constantly resorting to ad hominem attacks.
Settle down. Everyone settle down.
I wish he wasn't tanking it so hard right during trading season so he could be a viable asset. Sixers have some evil bad luck
Honestly, he shouldn't be starting and he definitely shouldn't be starting at PF. If he was coming off the bench to spell Iggy at SF, I bet we'd see excellent production from him. Simple as that.
I agree.
For all of 8 minutes per game.
Not necessarily. Iggy plays some 2 and some 3. Thad can easily get 20 minutes/game as a sub at SF. And frankly, at this point, with his skillset, that's all the team needs from him.
Same goes for Lou, subbing for AI and Jrue.
I agree that's what I'D do, but I think Eddie Jordan has all-but abandoned Iguodala at the 2 (and specifically paired with Thad at the 3). If that's true, there's virtually no room for Thad available on the perimeter.
Right now, I wouldn't be opposed to this at all. If Jordan insists on starting Iverson and Lou in the back court, then go with this starting lineup:
Dalembert
Brand
Iguodala
Lou
Iverson
With Thad and Jrue as your first guys off the bench, for Lou and Iverson, leaving you with this lineup to close the first quarter.
Dalembert
Brand
Thad
Iguodala
Jrue
Then Speights in to start the second for either big. Then maybe you go small for a stretch to give the other big a rest when Iverson or Lou comes back in.
I wouldn't be opposed to that at all.
There's still 30+ minutes/game for Thad in that type of rotation, say 20 at the 3 and 10-12 at the 4.
That makes an awful lot of sense you know...but I think we'll see the same line up continue and hear something from Jordan about Thad 'shooting his way out of it' (paraphrasing) or some such nonsense...
Best case scenario, IMHO...
Starters:
Jrue
A.I.
Iggy
Brand
Sammy
Then, at various times, Marreese, Thad, and Lou sub in... Lou for either A.I. or Jrue, Thad for Iggy, and Marreese for either Brand or Sammy. The real keys are: (1) never having Lou or A.I. in the backcourt without either Jrue or Iggy as a running mate, and (2) never playing Thad at the 4. These are the two critical mistakes that will hopefully cost our Moron his coaching job in the near future.
As long as Iverson 'must' start that is the starting line up I'd like to see starting the game as well...but Jordan seems in love with the Iverson/Williams back court.
Kate Fagan reported that Willie has a sinus infection and is a game time decision
I may be really going out on a limb here, but anyone else think Lou has been hurting this team more than Willie recently? I almost rather see Kapono/Ivey out there.
Wait, did I really say that?
Willie is clearly a defensive upgrade, and he's playing within himself (meaning, mainly taking open jumpers). If he would just stop trying to play the point when he's on the floor with Jrue, I'd say he's actually contributing. Well, compared to Lou.
I do have to give Lou credit for increased defensive efforts over the past week or so, though.
I wanna trade Lou so bad right now. And resign ai on the cheap with one of those "I enjoy playing basketball here so much it's not about the money" contracts.
Those dudes can't coexist on the same squad and have success. After watching jrue, lou's flaws are so apparent.
Jordan's playing time for Thad has fluctuated like crazy too. At this time, to properly play EB, I think about 30 minutes would be good like Brian said. The problem with that is the coach refuses to play him at 3. But beyond that, Thad is probably confused with his PT. Before last night, he had played for an average around 24 or 25 for 7 of 8 games. The other one? 46 minutes against Toronto where he shot 9-24 and to be honest, was just awful. On the floor, I think that he basically is pretty soft with his moves. He likes to adjust and shoot floaters rather then go into the lane and get fouled.
Here's a bad stat. Since December 11th (a time of a little more than one month), Thad has shot 3-24 from three. These are open looks too.
Hopefully, the shooting coach will help w/ the three-point stroke. The kid is just all kinds of messed upon the offensive end.
Technical question. On the chart above, it says for the first 29 games, Thad had 3P: 0.1, 3PA: 0.9, 3P%: 36.8%. Is this a typo?
Probably. I need to stop fooling around w/ spreadsheets at 3:30 a.m.
He was 28 for 76, total. So it should've been 0.9 made and 2.5 attempted on the threes. He's actually taking significantly fewer threes. Good eyes.
Nothing to add except that this is a fantastic post, and in-depth analysis like this might actually get people to read newspapers again...
This is the news paper...lol. Gotta save trees!
Funny how when Thad's scoring, he isn't rebounding.