 What Needs To Be Replaced Let's can the talk about heady play, gutsy leadership, killer instinct and determination for a minute and take a look at the numbers. Now that Andre Miller is gone, let's take a statistical look at exactly what needs to be replaced, and by whom. We'll use Miller's numbers from last season, and take a broad view of who will replace his production, if anyone. Let's start with the easy stuff: 2,976 Minutes - The easy answer is an uptick in Lou's minutes and Jrue's minutes in excess of 861 from last season (Ivey's total), but the real answer is Elton Brand. If all goes according to plan, Lou is going to be taking Willie's minutes with the starters and Brand will be taking Miller's. Iguodala and Thad should retain theirs (with Thad's trending upward) and Sammy and Speights will duke it out at the five. 15 three-pointers - Let's make this easy and say that Jrue will top this number easily. Lou will probably add at least 15 to his total of 63 from last season and I'd expect and uptick from Thad and Iguodala as well and we haven't even mentioned Kapono's name yet. This is not an issue. 534 assists - This is where things get dicey. Lou should add to his total of 242 from last season. Jrue should top Ivey's 43, Iguodala should see an uptick as well, but I just don't see how you get to 534 from this team. Whether or not that's an issue remains to be seen. When Jordan was in Washington, Gilbert Arenas led the team with only 484, and no one else on the roster had as many as 300. I think the Sixers will rely more on playmaking than quick shots than the Wizards did, but I'm not sure how much more. 1,337 points - Simple answer, Brand should be good for at least 1,000 more than he scored last season (1,399), Lou will probably be good for another couple hundred with increased minutes, Speights and Thad should bump their totals up, Jason Smith should easily out-score Reggie Evans from last season and I'll be shocked if Jrue can't contribute more than the 211 Ivey scored a year ago. 368 rebounds - If Coach Jordan decides to go with a small lineup for too many minutes per game, this is the area we're going to feel Miller's absence in the most. The Sixers were killed on the boards after Brand went down. If Andre Miller hadn't been the point guard, it would've been laughable. Miller had 36 games with five or more rebounds last season. That's outstanding for a point and he really helped out on the defensive glass, which was sorely needed. If, however, Jordan plays the correct lineup (PG, Iguodala, Thad, Brand, Sammy) for maximum minutes, rebounding will not be an issue, in fact, it will be a strength. If the PG winds up being Jrue, it will be an unbelievable strength. 109 steals - Again, very difficult to replace. Lou was pretty strong in this department last season (85), Brand has averaged 1 per game, in his prime, but I think to truly make a dent in the 109 number, Jrue would have to see significant time, which is doubtful at this point. 199 turnovers - Unfortunately, I think Lou has a pretty good shot at tackling half of this total on his own. He coughed the ball up 151 times last season without playing the point full time, and his minutes should cut into Willie's share (Willie took very good care of the ball, since it's hard to turn the ball over when you shoot it every time you touch it.) Increased minutes for Jrue will go a long way toward achieving this number unless he picks things up extremely quickly. 8.6 win shares - This is where the rubber meets the road. As I said above, Miller's minutes will ideally be replaced by Elton Brand. If Brand can stay healthy, can we expect a complete return to form? If we do, he accumulated 9.8, 10.3, 15.0 and 11.4 win shares in his last four complete seasons. If we could book him for a 20/10/2 (blocks) season, there'd be little concern, statistically speaking, for a drop-off in team record. Obviously, we can't bank on that though. So where will the win shares come from? Probably not from Lou, unless he drastically improves his performance. Last year, Lou and Willie combined for 5.5 win shares. If Lou takes 700 minutes away from Willie this season, the two would combine for 5.6 win shares, assuming they produces at the same level. Kapono and Reggie Evans are a wash. You could expect to see growth from Thad, Speights and hopefully Iguodala in this area, but can you bank on it? I think win shares are a great way to look back on a season and see who contributed what, but I'm not really sure they're a great way to look forward. Here's a primer on win shares. This time next year we'll be able to take a look at the 2009-2010 season and win shares will give us a good idea of who stepped up in Miller's absence, or didn't. Right now, though, it's complete guesswork. One thing is clear to me, however. Elton Brand is the key. Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday do not need to perform to Andre Miller's level for this team to tread water, and that's a very good thing because it's extremely unlikely. This team will either get back to that level, or exceed it, based on Brand's play. If he can return to form, then any development on the part of the young core will be gravy which pushes the team forward. If Brand stumbles, gets hurt, or is a shell of his former self, it would take a level of improvement from Speights, Thad and Lou that is completely unrealistic to expect to simply maintain. Obviously, those factors I told you to dismiss at the beginning of the post will have an influence on the team's fortunes, but I think that influence is impossible to gauge under the best of circumstances, ridiculous to even ponder when you take into account the affect of the new system on the roster. 
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Who replaces Miller's high field goal percentage on his 13 shots taken per game might be a better question. I guess there you're hoping Brand too. Frankly I don't really care who replaces what; you're talking about the difference between a 35-win team and a 42-win team, more or less. Neither possibility excites me much, obviously. This season to me will be about the development of Holiday, Young and Speights, and whether Iguodala can get even better and discover an outside shot. (Lou, to me, is probably what he is.)
I'm not going to argue about the big picture, the development of those guys is paramount. I think the ceiling this season is a little higher than you do, though. Anywhere from 35-50 wins is possible, especially if they defend up to their ability.
Just out of curiosity, what do you know about Jrue's rebounding numbers?
Brian, what would you say are the chances of Jrue winning the starting spot? And why am I so terrified of Lou Will getting more minutes?
I think you're absolutely right Tray. This season is all about giving Thad, Speights, and Jrue as many minutes/reps as possible. All our hopes rest with them. I'm thinking 35-40 wins and a playoff spot.
50 wins is a little too optimistic. Skiles' Chicago teams at their best never reached 50 wins...
Here are the available stats:
Summer League - 3.4/game, 4.25/36 min.
College - 3.8/game, 5.1/36 min.
High School - 12.0/game
Pretty much all the scouting reports listed him as an excellent rebounder for the PG position as well (You can see it in the college link above).
I think the guy who replaces A.Miller!s affect on this team the most is our new coach. Could E.S. even thought about letting A.Miller go if Deleo was still coaching? His hands on approach over the summer along with the system he brings are the reasons I hope we don!t take a major step back. The mix of young and old was a good one last year and has been shifted greatly at arguably the most important position so our new coach has to find a way to run a lot of stuff through Iggy and Elton because the 3 amigos [Thad,L.Will. and Spieghts] are better off just playing and reacting rather than having too much responsibility. I think Holliday will get plenty of chances and court time this year because his main competition [L.Will.,Willie] aren!t that far ahead of him in any skill set, a good thing for him but a bad thing for us fans.
Well said.
Sammy's back at PCOM practicing today. Love it.
A lot of the time that Miller had the ball will go to Iguodala.
Statistically, Iguodala could blow up this year. he will have the ball in his hands a ton as point forward/guard. Initially his T.O.'s might jump if he tries to do too much, but he has the chance to join Lebron as the only non PG's to get 7+ assists.
I can easily see Iguodala average 18+/5/7+ this year. Especially if Thad, Brand, Speights and Kapono hit open jumpers.
Sort of like how AI put up gaudy assist numbers when he was a PG in name only. If you have the ball enough and pass some you can really put up impressive stats, even if you don't actually improve your game or control the game like a PG normally does.
I also think Millers shots will easily be taken up by Thad, Lou, Speights and Brand. If anything those guys need more shots.
What is tougher to guage is who will step up and get that key score during a lull to stop the bleeding. I'm confident that will be Thad, cause he has shown a knack for scoring when the rest of the team is flat.
Also who will involve a player when they need an easy basket to break out of a funk or to get their motor up. It will have to be Iguodala- but not sure he can fill in for all that Miller could do.
I agree with everything you said. In fact, with Jordan saying he wants them to push the pace and Iguodala being surrounded by finishers, I would not be surprised if Dala challenges LeBron for most triple-doubles this year.
Something that'll be hard to quantify is Miller's personal bias. I know a lot of people complained about the team going away from Thad later in games, was that Miller? On the converse, how much of Willie being frozen out of the offense can we thank Miller for?
I like having the ball in Iguodala's hands more often, I think it'll be good for the team and I definitely think you're right, he's primed to have a huge year. I'm just really interested to see what difference AI vs. Miller as the primary ballhandler will make on shot distribution. Of course, you also have to factor in the PO so there's no way to even guess at this point.
Yeah, should be interesting. My fear is that even though players put up huge numbers, they may not be making the right pass or doing the little things that are innate to PG's.
The players could have huge statistical seasons (esp Lou) without it translating into winning basketball.
In that regard I trust Iguodala much more than Lou, probably not quite as much as I trusted Miller.
As far as Iguodala's concerned, I think he makes the right pass most times, or at least tries to, meaning, he hits the open man. What he doesn't always do is take into account who that man is. Meaning, a pass to Dalembert through traffic where it's a tough catch may be the best option for points if he catches the ball, but what're the odds of him catching the ball? Distinctions like that.
If the PO allows for a good amount of drive'n'kick, then we can presume that's how Lou'll get his assist numbers up, too.
Well definitely Thad can score, as long as his teammates pass the ball to him.
Great thoughts by all. After reading the above, here are my thoughts:
1. I believe Miller at time killed us by shooting too much when he was off. His assists went down and I think that hurt the rest of the team.
2. We have alot of unknowns this year. WE have 2 NEW players starting (Lou and Elton) and I think that we can actually improve from last year. Alot depends on coach.
3. This could be a break out year for AI9 as he should see the ball more which should lead to more points (several 30+ Point games) and alot more assists. Maybe this will be the year the fans will start to appreciate AI9.
4. Lastly, I think this will either IMPROVE OR FALL. This will not be another .500 year.
Brian, this one actually excites me for the next year for a change. Has been a rough, boring summer.
It should definitely be a different team we'll watch this season, whether it's better or worse remains to be seen, but things will absolutely change.
Yeah, definitely looking forward to next year. Lots of intrigue and my expectations have been suitably lowered so that I'm ready for whatever comes.
Like bebop, I've been frustrated by stopgap measures like riding limited vets like Joe Smith, Green and Evans to make the playoffs instead of throwing the young guys into the fire. Well I guess I might get what I was hoping for, but that could be a bit scary...
Wow, Okafor to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler. WOW. I don't want to hear any "Jeez, if they could do that for Chandler why can't we do it for Dalembert," crap, I just want someone to tell me how a cash-strapped team like New Orleans can possible take back $35M more in salary in a deal like this. Amazing. Absolutely amazing.
For the record, if the Bobcats had offered Okafor for Dalembert, straight up, I would've pulled the trigger.
Why not Sammy, I know, Sammy is considered less productive than injury prone Chandler. Now, given that, I hope Sammy takes that personally and starts performing well. Could you imagine how good the sixers would be IF Sammy started playing basketball!
Well it could be the Larry Brown thing...he may not have liked sam when he was here - I don't know - but Tyson Chandler is seen as the better player...perception becomes reality in the NBA, it's just the way it goes, and the perception is that Tyson is productive a bit more on both ends of the court while Sam's an offensive dunderhead (not to mention a whiner).
Brian - New Orleans doesn't answer to stock holders :)
Sounds like Chris Paul might have wielded some influence behind the scenes. With the franchise in that state, there is little chance that Paul was not consulted on this
Hear Sixers have interest in Flip Murray, who wants multiple years. With Hawks having four guards (Johnson, Bibby, Teague, Crawford) under contract, is he still in Atlanta's plans?
Murray's a Philly guy, right?
I don't know, if you're willing to go multiple years, I'd rather get CJ Watson. Any more chatter about him?
Sounds like Golden State would offer three years, $4.5 mill for Watson, which is well out of Sixers' range. Even if they go $2.3 mill guaranteed for 2009-10 with a non-guaranteed second year, I think Watson would take the Warriors' offer.
Yup, he is from Philly (Strawberry Mansion). He's a combo guard who can play the point, but tends to look for his shot (hello, Lou Williams).
At the very least, he provides the instant scoring punch off the bench that the team might need considering Lou is now a starter. Him and Jrue could be an interesting back court.
That's a good point. I think the original idea was for more of a veteran guy to initiate the offense, but Murray would seem to fit the Princeton offense pretty well. He'll have to lower his price -- and the Sixers would have to hope Atlanta won't re-sign him, which is unclear.
He's unrestricted, right? Any idea what his asking price is in dollars, not years?