The Sixers road trip continues tonight in Dallas against a Mavs team riding a two-game win streak. The Mavs beat Boston, on the road, then took a measure of revenge against Grizzlies who handed Dirk and Co. their first loss of the season. Can the Sixers turn in another good effort against a playoff team? Will that effort translate into a concrete win this time, rather than just a moral victory? Let's look at the matchups:
Dallas seems to be playing a different kind of game this season. They're a below-average offensive team (18th in offensive efficiency), but they've been great defensively (4th). If you look at their starting lineup, especially over the past couple games, it's no wonder why they're struggling on the offensive end, relatively speaking. DeShawn Stevenson has found another starting job in the NBA. Stevenson is splitting time at the two with Jason Terry. Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood are doing the same at the five. Brian Cardinal is sort of in their rotation. OK, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Dallas.
As a team, they take more long twos than shots at the rim. Their attempts outside of 15 feet and inside 15 feet are about even. Basically, they're a jump-shooting team with limited athleticism and pretty good size.
The biggest question I have is who will guard Nowitzki? I assume it's going to have to be Brand to start, but I'm wondering how long it will take for the Sixers to fall back into the 1-2-2 zone we've seen over the past couple games. If they wind up in that zone, we could see Nocioni, Iguodala and Turner on Dirk when he catches the ball around the elbow. He's going to be a tough cover for them, he can easily just turn and shoot over them. The good news is that Dirk hasn't really shot the three at all this year (1/6 on the season). If Dirk isn't extending all the way beyond the three-point line, it makes it at least a little easier to account for him. Iguodala has done a good job in the past when he's been matched up on Dirk, so look for that if Nowitzki is killing them early on.
Neither Chandler nor Haywood is a dominant offensive big, but they will both crash the boards, they can both block shots and they're both physical players on the inside. Hawes will probably get pushed around, and someone is going to have to work to get a body on them. Securing defensive rebounds is going to be a top priority.
On the offensive end, Brand has a favorable matchup against Dirk and Jrue should be able to do what he wants against Kidd and/or Barea. At some point, we're probably going to wind up seeing Jason Terry guarding either Jrue, Turner or Iguodala. The Sixers need to attack that matchup mercilessly.
Lou is probably going to miss this game, which means more minutes for Meeks and it's probably going to mean Evan Turner will return to his role as backup PG off the bench, which is unfortunate.
If the Sixers are going to win this game, they're probably going to have to ride Brand, use penetration for easy hoops and to get the Dallas bigs in foul trouble. On paper, this doesn't look like a very good matchup to me.
Prediction: Dallas 95, Sixers 87.
The tip is at 8:30 p.m., the game thread will be up at 7 p.m.
It just great to see so many quality PG's in the NBA. And the grizzled old vets tend to each have a lesson or two to teach Jrue- which is fine. And I think Jrue is learning and stealing bits and pieces from their games. I hope he watches Kidd closely- both so he does not get tons of open 3's like last year, and to learn how to take advantage of being a big PG.
Jason Kidd: #5 in the NBA all time in 3 pointers made.
I'm not saying to derive anything from that statement. I just find it interesting.
Amazing for a "guy who can't shoot." At some point 'ason got his J back.
34.9% in 3 point percentages made, it's great that he is #5 all time in makes - but maybe he shouldn't be shooting that damn many in the first place?
He has a career FG% of 40.3
So maybe he 'can't' shoot - but shoots a lot?
12 shots per game for his career, 4 3's per game for his career
Do you want a guy who is basically a career 35% 3 point shooter making 3's 1/3 of his shot?
He's a smart player. People played off of him for years because of his driving ability and poor jumper. But a 35% 3pt shot is reasonable. More importantly, it forces defenses to play him honest. And his 3pt% since 2004 is about 38%. So he's shooting 38% over his last 200+ attempts.
should read 2000+ attempts.
Here is a good list:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=Gv8Ug
Lists players over 31 who hit at least 1.5 3's per game and sorts by 3p%. Kidd's .378 3p% over his last 474 games puts him in the middle of the pack for this list. Better % than guys like Peja, Ginobli, Donyell. And within about 1% of Reggie Miller, Ray Allen and Billups.
34.9% on threes is 1.047 points/shot, so yeah, not a bad shot for him. I'd be interested in seeing what those numbers looked like prior to the last three seasons, though. He improved dramatically late in his career.
I listed his last 6+ seasons. Prior to that he shot 32% on 3.6 3PA/gm, which is Iguodla-like.
I just hope Turner gets his 35+ minutes and some play time alongside Jrue.
http://www.csnphilly.com/11/10/10/Sixers-Young-Struggling-Under-Collins-Re/landing_sixers.html?blockID=350094&feedID=694
"If Iguodala does return Friday, don’t be surprised if Collins starts Iguodala, Turner and Holiday on the perimeter. In Collins’ mind, Turner and Iguodala are interchangeable at the two-guard and small forward positions; he actually prefers to call them perimeter guards. "
From Dei's lips to Collins ears...
Rotational wise, it hasn't been great when those 3 are together so far this year.
More importantly - please start Tony Battie, this whole hawes is in the starting line up - this hawes nonsense has to stop
Jrue/Turner/Iguodala are -2 in 40 minutes. Not bad for team that is 2-6.
http://nba.phillyarena.com/rotations/saved/215/
This data might be out of date- but Iguodala has missed 2.5 games, so it's probably is accurate.
I'm looking at the rotation chart and this number is a little misleading.
Jrue at PG, Turner at SG and Iguodala at SF = +10 in 34 minutes.
Jrue at PG, Turner at SF and Iguodala at PF (with Lou at SG) = -5 in 7 minutes
They've also played 24 seconds with Iguodala at the five.
Anyway, all these samples are way too small, but the early returns on JTI at the positions they should be playing are very, very promising. Especially on the defensive end:
34:42 minutes
66 points scored
56 points allowed
Of course, that group is even if you take away one 3:33 stretch in the Indy game when they went on a 12-2 run.
Excellent use of numbers
And a small sample size to boot. Lets give them some run as they get more used to each other and see what happens.
In a season of 82 games what stops being small sample size - i'm just curios to see what peoples opinions are. I usually think somewhere around 25% (20 games) you can start to get an idea?
That's got to depend on other variables, right?
If you are talking about 3 vets on a solid roster I'd think you could evaluate their success/failure in 5-10 games. But with a 20 y/o PG, a 22 y/o rookie and Iguodala they could be lousy for 50 games and still end up dominant in 2 years. A lot depends on how Turner and Jrue develop and what bigs end up rounding out the starting 5.
Sorry for a cop-out answer, but its the truth.
WEll then you start looking at trends, and 'portions' - if you they still stink after 50 games, are they getting better in games 41-50 versus games 1-10 :)
Per D. Bodner, J/T/I is starting tonight. Fun to see. Who has to guard Stevenson's sorry...?
Nice. Nocioni is the odd man out, I guess.
Is Hawes still starting
http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/70063/20101112/kings_have_shopped_thompson/
Think we can send Hawes back for him?
Stefanski want's to trade Turner for him.
Jason Thompson is another big who is a minus defender and more of an offensive player. He's a much better rebounder than Thad, but he does not fit the profile of the defensive minded big this team needs.
Our guards will win this game for us if it can happen. Will the Sixers players attack Jason Terry "mercifully" is the question.
Dirk has a hight advantage over Brand but I like how he's playing right now. He can out physical Dirk all game. Brand could easily go for 20/10 tonight.
I'm interested to see Brand defend Dirk since Dirk isn't really known for his low post abilities...Dirk should get his shot up pretty easily if Brand is defending him.
Caron Butler feels slighted by all of you
Ha. Caron isn't playing tonight.
Yahoo didn't have that information when I set my line up - they hadn't updated it since wednesday, thanks, now i can fix my line up:
He should. I had totally forgotten he plays for them.
"Paul who?" Haslem shot back. "Man, ain't nobody paying them dudes no attention, man. You know what studio gangster is? Look up that, look up the definition of studio gangster. I'm here to play basketball. First of all, I don't tweet. So I wouldn't know what he tweeted if you guys didn't tell me."
Made me laugh
Is a studio gangster a guy who comes into your house and bitch slaps you? Cause that's who Paul Pierce was last night, Udonis.
What made me laugh was that
A. I love when people use double negatives like it's the English Language
B. He was completely and totally off on his insight about 'no one paying attention' to the celtics
C. If he can't handle the pressure now, how are they going to handle it the rest of the season, the focus is all on the heat, and it's going to be hotter than an ant under a magnifying glass all season long, not to mention after they flame out in the playoffs...Here comes Riley to the rescue
Just wanted to point out that here Udonis used a triple negative, so he's okay.
In Haslem's world real men -- that's to say, real gangsters -- don't tweet. Good to know.
I do like how all the insulting tweets are bringing the nba closer to the wwwf.
I totally missed the third negative I got so wrapped up in the beginning and the whole 'studio gangster'
What's funny is that if talking 'gangster' i would say KG that punk ass bitch is more gangster than anyone on the heats roster