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What Would A Lost Year Look Like?

ripvanwinkle071211.jpg
As some players make the move overseas, others find ways to bide their time and the sides continue to avoid negotiations like the plague, we inch closer and closer to a completely lost NBA season. Here's today's question: What would the Sixers look like after a full lost season?

Here's a quick look at the salaries the Sixers would be on the hook for if the 2011-2012 season was lost and next summer a new CBA was put in place for the start of the 2012-2013 season.

Player2012-20132013-2014
Elton Brand$18,160,355 *PO
Andre Iguodala$14,718,250$15,904,750 *PO
Andres Nocioni$7,500,000 *TO
Lou Williams$5,351,500 *PO
Evan Turner$5,393,080$6,679,867
Marreese Speights$3,823,363 *QO
Jrue Holiday$2,674,852$3,776,891 *QO
Craig Brackins$1,503,000$2,394,279
Nikola Vucevic$1,520,100$1,626,200


Pending next summer's draft, and honestly no one knows how the hell they'd sort out the draft order, the Sixers would have $49M committed to 7 players: Brand (no way he's opting out), Iguodala, Williams, Turner, Holiday, Brackins and Vucevic. I think it's probably safe to assume Nocioni's team option would not be exercised. I doubt they'd extend a qualifying offer to Speights and I'd say it's better than a 50% chance Lou wouldn't exercise his player option.

$49M isn't too bad in committed cash. If the "flex cap" the owners were talking about was put into effect at $62M, they'd probably have enough cap space to sign a player to a max contract (assuming max contracts exist and drop in value, somewhat). The catch is that they'd also have to deal with Thad and possibly Hawes. It's going to depend on the CBA, but Thad will either still be a restricted free agent, or an unrestricted free agent, same with Hawes.

Financially, the team would probably be in decent shape. Brand would be an expiring contract, Iguodala would only have two years left on his deal. Nocioni would be gone, probably the same with Speights. Lou may decide he can do better on the open market.

On the court, I think the outlook would be much more bleak. You will have lost a year of Iguodala's prime. Brand will be 33, going on 34. I'm not sure how much you could expect to get out of him after a year of rust at his age. But more importantly, they will have lost a year of Turner's rookie contract, which may or may not be tragic, and Jrue's. They'd have only one more season to evaluate Jrue before he becomes a restricted free agent (assuming restricted free agency still exists).

As fans, there's really nothing positive about a lost season. I started writing this post in the hopes that I'd find some kind of silver lining if the worst-case scenario materializes, but no such luck. I guess moving closer to a heaping helping of cap space in the summer of 2013 is a good thing, but not when you have to make a potentially monumental decision on Jrue's first contract extension with less info to go on.

What do you guys think? Any light at the end of the tunnel of a lost season? Would you completely lose interest by this time next year?
by Brian on Jul 12 2011
Tags: Basketball | Lockout | Sixers |