DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan



, all the time

DiLeo vs. Cheeks

Hi Brian,

I'm satisfied with the job DiLeo has done so far. The loss to the Nets was very disappointing but for the most part they have been beating who they are supposed to and occasionally knocking off good teams. I also like his rotations so far (other than WG still gets too many minutes).

What do you think of this posted on a Knicks site (about trading Miller to Portland)? Who should we ask for in return? Do you think we could get Bayless or Fernandez?:

Interesting. Let's start by saying trading Miller for LaFrentz does nothing for the Sixers, besides save them a little bit of money because Raef's contract is insured. I really doubt they'd make the deal straight up.

If they were to make the deal, it would have to either involve someone else, or the Sixers would have to include a bad contract and take back some youth, picks and/or a piece they need right now. IMO, neither Bayless nor Sergio are viable options to start at the point for the Sixers next season. I would, however, give serious thought to a deal like this:

Sixers send Andre Miller and Willie Green.
Portland sends Raef LaFrentz, Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez.

Portland gets the point they need to make a serious run out west, we get a shooter, a potential point for the rotation, maintain our cap space for this Summer and replace Willie's contract with two affordable contracts.

Not sure how desperate Portland is, nor how much like Fernandez, but they're going to have to pay if they really want a legit point, and there aren't too many out there right now.

I've given some more thought to this deal. If you really think Miller is going to walk at the end of the year, and you don't believe the Sixers have any kind of outside shot at a title and/or going deep into the playoffs, then I think you'd have to pull the trigger if you were Ed Stefanski. It wouldn't save you much money against the cap, only about $900K (Green's contract vs. Fernandez + Sergio), so they'd still only have the two exemptions to sign a point next summer, but they're going to be in that situation anyway. At least this way you fill one need with Rudy, possibly two if Sergio pans out. Plus, you get rid of Willie.

Max reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 9:32

I would do that deal, miller isn't resigning with us. You start Rudy at the two and worry about obtaining a point guard either in the draft (which is deep for PG's) or in FA.

Chris reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 14:52

I'd do this deal in a second also.

They love Fernandez in Portland. You'd think with Roy they might figure the don't really need him, but I don't know.

Yes, they would not want to give up Fenandez. Also, Portland really wants a PG to shift Roy to SG. Bayless is probably also to high of a pick for them to give up on so soon- and he is in some ways similar to Lou)
I think they would look to deal away either Outlaw or Webster. Webster is out the entire season. Ourlaw would fit here well, given he is a crazy athlete who can hit the three.

Miller/Evans for Lafrenz/Outlaw (or Webster) works and also clears a good bit of cap space to go out and use the entire MLE for a PG this summer. Or they could substitute in Blake if they want a PG back.

Max reply to tk76 on Feb 2 at 9:40

I wouldn't do this one...

I wouldn't do this one either. Portland has to give something up to get him. The expiring deal really doesn't have much meaning for the Sixers. They already have Miller's contract coming off the books, and the difference in value between Miller and Raef's contracts doesn't matter. They're both expiring, so worth zero against the cap next year.

This move would clear $82,000 off the cap (the difference between Green's salary and Outlaw's). And it would further complicate the Iguodala/Thad logjam at SF.

I think it would have to be Rudy and probably another piece if you're dealing w/ Portland alone, that or a three-team deal. Portland needs to give something of value up in the deal besides Raef's contract, because that contract alone doesn't give the Sixers anything they don't already have.

If they Sixers can't get back at least 4M in expiring deals in a trade of Miller they will be up against the Tax this summer if they want to use the MLE. I would strongly consider the Outlaw deal because its basically giving you Outlaw for Evans and leaves the team a couple of Mil under the cap this summer so they could use the full MLE to add another player. At very worse Outlaw is a tradeable asset whereas Evans is not.

You guys are probably right that the Sixers need a bigger return, which is why a 3rd team likely will need to be involved. The other team gives back either a SG or PG to Philly and gets Lafrenz's big expiring. Mike Miller would be a good fit here, but they would want back more than an expiring.

I can't think of any available PG's from a 3rd team that would fit the bill. Early Watson is available, but you'd think the Sixers would want more back then that. Its more likely they get back a SG and a stopgap PG, and then go out and get a PG with the MLE this summer. Either way there are no easy answers out there if they don't resign Miller.

If Miller indicates he is not coming back (or is too pricey) then the Sixers are pretty stuck. If he walks it still does not free up enough $'s to use more than the MLE.

You're missing a vital step in your logic here. The Sixers are only up against the luxury tax if they re-sign Miller. And they're only going to be close to the luxury tax number if they re-sign him for $10M or more.

If they don't, or if they replace him with an expiring contract, like LaFrentz's, they're actually below the salary cap, just not far enough below to do anything but sign someone to the MLE.

Their cap number for next season is just over $58M right now, if they re-sign Miller for $10M, that puts you at $68M, the luxury tax threshold was $71M this season.

Sorry if I was unclear, but that was what I was getting at.

Let Miller walk and you have the MLE (and the BLE.) Not an ideal scenario.

Resign Miller to 7M+ or bring back that much in a trade and you are at 66M+, meaning using the MLE puts you up against the Tax (which they might be willing to exceed?)

Trade Miller for a player + at least 4M expiring and you can still use the full MLE this summer for an upgrade without going over the tax. The Portland deals I mentioned would add a decent player/asset (Outlaw, Blake or Webster)in exchange for Evans' bad contract, while still clearing 10M with LaFrenz's expiring. Not a great return (still not much under the cap so will only have the MLE/BLE), but better than the alternative of letting Miller walk at the end of the year.

OK, I follow the logic now. A deal that doesn't bring you back a significant piece sounds like a fire sale to me, and I don't think the Sixers are in that position. I mean, it doesn't look like they're winning a title this season, but they are in position to make the playoffs, possibly with a decent seed. That gives Stefanski leverage. They don't have to trade Miller, especially not for 50 cents on the dollar.

Portland needs Miller much more than we need to get rid of him, and I think the only way a deal would go down is if the Sixers got a significant piece in return.

Well onto the original post. Dileo has been a MAJOR upgrade over Cheeks and the stats clearly illustrate that fact.
Cheeks is a good guy...but a bad head coach. He would be better as an assistant.
As far as Miller to portland ?
Well...To me Andre Miller is probably a top 10 point guard in this league and by trading him you are basically saying this team will not contend in the next few years. Ive been very impressed with him this season.
Having said that..the Sixers are a slightly above average team and he is 34. If they can rape portland or some other team for awesome young talent ala NJ for Jason Kidd..then you have to do it...I dont think Portlands owner is as stupid as Mark Cuban though. (or as desperate)

john reply to Gdog on Feb 2 at 11:23

If the sixers have indications that Miller won't re-sign here - please tell me what keeping him does?

This team isn't going to contend for a championship while they are starting two (Ideally) bench players in Willie Green and Sam Dalembert and they aren't going to contend this year period. All keeping Miller for this season does is practically guarantee that the assets gained for the allen iverson trade didn't yield much and make the 'non' deal look a lot worse.

I wish we had a smart GM like Joe Dumars.

Is that the "smart" Joe Dumars who drafted Darko, or the smart Joe Dumars who decided signing Rip to a long-term deal and trading away Billups was the best move for the future of the Pistons?

I actually liked the AI trade. It may not have worked for this year, but it puts them in great position to go after 2 max FA's in 2010.

So basically it gave the Pistons 2 shots for success. The 1st way (win w/AI) may have flopped, but they still might turn out as a winner in the deal in 1-2 years,

The deal gave them cap flexibility, but signing Rip to that extension was a mistake.

Unless the sixers are blown out of the water in a trade for Miller, I would keep him and sign him to an extension. He could walk, but I'm more inclined to think he'll re-sign for a fair deal. He won't get anything near what he signed 5 years ago. Would 3yrs 25-30 mil do it? I wouldn't go over 3 yrs if possible.

3/$25 seems reasonable to me, 3/$30 is paying him for past production, rather than what you think he'll be able to do over the course of the contract, IMO.

As tk76 pointed out, though. Signing him to that extension will push the Sixers to the brink of the luxury tax threshold, and may not leave them enough room to use the full MLE next Summer. I'm fine w/ that, but I'm not sure the bean counters will be.

That also assumes that he wants to re-sign here, although I don't think he's going to have too many options.

That's another reason Portland may really want to trade for him. If they own his bird rights, they can re-sign him at the end of the year and he can be their point for the next 3 or so years. If they can't trade for him, they won't be able to offer him anything more than the MLE this summer. If he's their guy, they have to get him now.

Portland was looking for a PG earlier this year with an expiring contract - i doubt they stopped looking

I'm wondering if their wish list changed when Miles went back on their cap number for next season.

Anyway, here are the points w/ expiring contracts:

Bibby, Jason Kidd, Bobby Jackson, Andre Miller, Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson

john reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 14:06

Well the rumors were specific - they were targeting bibby - but the hawks lost interest in moving him after their hottish start

Max reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 14:10

If he doesn't sign before hand, Miller is the best point guard available on the market.

But some of the teams looking this summer will just try to solve their PG issues through the draft (deep in PG's)or trade (Mike Conleys of the world) anyway. So that will lessen Miller's possible destinations even further.

john reply to Max on Feb 2 at 14:13

That's a matter of opinion - and debate...which is the best 'point' guard available - and who is even a point guard - other GMs may see it differently.

The important thing to note is that NO ONE is going to have cap space. Detroit and Memphis are the only teams with the space to offer more than the MLE as of now. Someone else may be able to shake some space free between now and then, obviously, but as things stand, there aren't going to be many options for these guys on the FA market.

Looking at teams financial situation I think Miller will only get MLE offers- even through his play deserves more. If only he could come to that realization right now and just re-sign with the Sixers for something slightly over the MLE (maybe 3 years 21M.)

All of these guys are going to be in the same boat, either the MLE from someone else, re-sign with your current team for a little bit more, or hope for a sign-and-trade which is highly unlikely. There just isn't enough cap space out there.

Some additional Portland info not mentioned in my skimming...

Raef's contract is 80%ish paid by insurance. So, the Sixers would only pay like 2 million of his contract cash. That is a lot of money. For instance, although this would never happen, they could make a deal and then use the 8 million saved cash-wise and buy a bunch of draft picks. Again, this would never happen, just saying.

Also, Portland has Petteri Kopenin overseas. He was a first round pick and, although I have never seen him play or seen his numbers, he is young and apparently is a bit of a gamer. I like what I have heard.(why? Don't know, but I was very happy when the Sixers drafted him.) They also have another player or 2 overseas who could be included in a deal. They also have tons of draft picks.(I didn't double check this)

As for the deals discussed... I see Outlaw as ridiculously repetitive to this team. His 3 point shot isn't pure in the least bit. He is an extremely poor man's Thaddeus Young.

I'd want Rudy in a deal with Portland. If not, I think I'd pass and move on. Of course outlandish trades could happen with Portland since they think outside to box more than other teams.

If they offered a deal where the Sixers can unload Reggie and Willie along with Miller and get back a flyer cheap young player and expiring deals... I don't know. I'd at least listen.

I wonder if this bynum injury could shake up the western trade market as they might seem a bit more vulnerable?

Could be. He's going to be done for the year, just like last year. They aren't nearly as imposing w/out him. The champ is coming from the East, again.

Joe reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 17:26

It is an 8-12 week thing I believe... just a tear to the MCL. I would think he will be fine eventually. He should be close to 90% or so by round 2 or the WCF.

It isn't the same knee I don't think and we aren't tak,ing about much in the way of dislocations or anything either.

With Bynum, they aren't wunning the championship. They may make it there again though.

Wasn't the prognosis even better than that last year?

Joe reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 21:47

Last year it was 8-12 as well I think, but as far as I know... this injury is more straightforward. Just a tear, which isn't a huge deal nowadays. Last year, there was a dislocation involved.

Alvin reply to Brian on Feb 2 at 18:13

I won't rule out the Spurs. No, not in an odd year, they always seem to be able to pull it out some way or another.

True, especially if they keep shooting 40% from three as a team.

Seems like the Sixers are getting pretty lucky with injuries to opposing teams. Garnett looks like he is out tomorrow night. Without him and at home, it isn't a guaranteed loss by any stretch IMO.

How about Lafrenz & Rodriguez for AMiller & Rush? Could Rodriguez be a starting NBA point guard if given a chance?

john reply to sfw on Feb 2 at 19:10

Probably - but the blazers love him and I doubt that's enough to get him

Joe reply to sfw on Feb 2 at 21:51

Are you thinking of Rudy, not Sergio? I am baffled right now by your comments for a Juan Pepe Sanchez clone.

Joe reply to Joe on Feb 2 at 21:54

I mean I would take a flyer on him, but I would rather have a late 1st round pick.

John reply to Joe on Feb 2 at 21:56

Quite possibly - that happens to me sometimes - long day

John, something haves to give with Blake, Rodriguez, Bayless & Kopponen. If they want A. Miller, someone or two have to go.

john reply to sfw on Feb 2 at 19:19

Doesn't have to give yet - they're all under rookie deals and koopponen is an unknown and might never be.

They don't HAVE to move anyone yet - the sixers are more motivated to move miller than the blazers are (I would think ) as they still have these guys cheap for a while.

Max reply to John on Feb 2 at 21:09

LOL!! Lemme guess, the guy who cooked this one up is a blazers fan? Johnny Salmons AND Mikki Moore...wow, it might be too good to pass up.

Couldn't he find a way to work Thad into the deal too? I mean, Miller's kinda old, I'm sure Portland would want some youth back when they're giving up all those guys.

Salmons isn't bad these days.

John reply to Tray on Feb 2 at 21:31

Yes he is - he just plays on a crappy team - sure he's better than willie green and should have been kept over green - but he doesn't solve problems the sixers have and the talent in that deal combined probably isn't worth miller in my opinion - let alone miller and iguodala

Joe reply to John on Feb 2 at 22:05

Salmons always bothered me greatly. He seems to have improved though. 19 PPG, 48%, and 42% is pretty damn nice if you ask me and he keeps the rest of his game under control. He very well may fool a team into a Corey Magette contract as teams scramble to use their 2010 cap space on anything they can find. I'd like to watch a bunch of Sac games to see what changed.

Joe reply to John on Feb 2 at 22:18

Put another way, he is a SG version of Mo Williams. If he were on Cleveland, he would put up the same numbers as in Sac-town and make the all star game next year, like Mo will.

Salmons needs the ball in his hands a bunch to put up god numbers. That only happens on a bad team.

He could be a role player on a great team (certainly better than the Sixers starting PG) but in that case he would not put up half the numbers he does now.

Joe reply to tk76 on Feb 3 at 4:04

Player does well on bad team... he wouldn't put up those numbers on a good team. Someone has to score for a team and Salmons is just "that guy"

Player does well on a good team... the star of the team is "making him better."

It seems like some guys just always get the shit end of the stick and it isn't the "stars."

Salmons is having a great offensive season, far and away the best of his career. His FG% has been much stronger over the past two seasons, but the biggest improvement this year has been his 3pt%. He went from being an average shooter from deep to an excellent shooter.

My main concern with Salmons would be defense. Check out his defensive rating, and his defensive win shares.

Contractually, he has an ETO after next season which he may or may not exercise. I think he's probably an MLE-type guy so he may not.

Obviously, he'd be an upgrade over Willie at the two, I just don't think he'd be a perfect fit.

Joe reply to Brian on Feb 3 at 4:22

I'm not saying I would want him on the Sixers much. I'm just saying that he is having a good year. No real need to pull out the "crappy team" card.

ok, here's my tweak on the portland deal. how about andre miller for steve blake, rudy fernandez, and channing frye.

i know most people will say no to this deal because of blake, but he is seriously underrated. i'm not saying he's a top-10 PG, but he's a decent defender, is very consistent, is an excellent passer and a very good outside shooter. he could very comfortably run this team for 2 years while we resolve the position long-term, and he doesn't make that much money.

meanwhile, rudy could be a real contributor, and the blazers might be willing to part with him if it means getting back a major player without giving away anymore of their young talent. frye is just thrown in to make the numbers work, but his expiring contract would keep the sixers in their MLE range. a draft pick or the rights to one of their foreign players would put the deal over the top for me.

This deal may actually be more useful than getting LaFrentz back. I'm not a huge fan of Blake, but at least they'd have a true point on their roster after the deal. Frye can walk, and they still get Rudy.

I would deal Miller and a 1st round pick for Rudy and an expiring deal I am pretty sure.

With Rudy, you get a guy who really fits and solves your shooting problem almost by himself. You aren't looking great at PG, but you can always trade for a band-aid... Willie/Rush for Tinsley?

Then, if you still have your pick, you can try to address your PG situation via the draft. If not, players become disgruntled, MLE/BAE caliber PGs will be available(Sessions, Quinn), and vets might become available(Iverson, Kidd, Andre Miller). Like Brand just "came up." Opportunities at PG will "come up."

Granted, you are going to lose a few more games possibly, but eliminating Willie from the rotation 100% improves you automatically, so it may just even out.

Expand/Contract all comments

Leave a comment