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Fun With The New Trade Machine

Portland is also out of the sweepstakes cause the rumors were that the suns wanted aldridge AND bayless (both of whom the blazers love)

As for the trade you posted

Yes, a thousand times yes.

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john reply to john on Feb 12 at 13:38
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PS - I'm not sure that trade is good enough for the blazers demands or the bulls desires - but who cares :)

I still find it hard to believe Portland wouldn't part with Rudy in a Miller deal.

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john reply to Brian on Feb 12 at 14:46
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It depends on how Portland 'sees' Miller - whether or not he is an elite point guard (and depending on how you define it you could aruge either way i bet) it's the perception - is he an elite piont guard - when the league idiots talk about elite point guards miller isn't usually in the discussion (but jason kidd STILL is for reasons passing understanding)...is pritchard smart enough to see past the perception or will he worry about what others think of him if he trades for miller?

By the way, just for kicks I sent sammy to the hornets for chandler and we are supposedly 2 games better if we do that deal.

yeah? I did Miller for Jason Richardson and it cost us 10.

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john reply to Brian on Feb 12 at 16:41
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You're first trade cost us 7 I believe - i don't know when ESPN started using Berris WP48 or win share number - wasn't aware they had it

I don't think they are. It's probably based on PER.

To me, the machine may not consider some things on the court. For example, Blazers's Roy is efficient when he can handle the ball. Even consider the defensive part, S. Blake is still a better player than J.Jack to Blazers 'cause he has his perimeter game and Jack doesn't. Blazers and Sixers are similar to each other to the extent that they are young and putting their passion on the court. That's one of biggest reason people regard Andre Miller can be helpful for Blazers. However, Roy and Miller are likely to decrease each other's value especially on the offensive side. Miller needs the space to put his game on the court and so does Roy. Miller made some big shot behind the arc early this season. But if the trade become true, Portland's fans is going to miss Outlaw and Rudy's 3 pointers when they found their team be lack of shooters to spread the space for Roy. The above are my 2 cents to the Miller to Blazers deal, and also the difference between human-being and machine on decision making.

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john reply to jimcal on Feb 12 at 17:45
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It doesn't - and it's a ridiculous functionality that ESPN added that people will use to debate the merits of trades - all trade machines really tell you (usefully) is whether a trade works or not under the NBA CBA - i in general don't like trade machines after seeing them abused at realgm and think a 'stupidity algorithm' should be built so that any trade checker rejects a trade so stupid to make people laugh and ban said person from proposing any trade for the next week - or something like that.

In general - I don't like em - judiciously used with some thought made into the trade like this one they aren't that bad -

WOW. I usually laugh at simmons on espn, although a huge homer, he still is pretty clever.

What kills me is how he did not include him on his trade value column. I just don't understand it.

My question is, where does he fall? If you glance at simmons's list, where would you put iggy?
Top 20? Top 15? Who would you trade straight up for Iggy?
Just curious

Personally, I think he belongs at like number 20.5, right in between Joe Johnson and Al Jefferson. That sounds about right. Of the names that are higher than #20 on the list, I wouldn't trade Iggy straight up for any of the following:

Granger, Melo, Manu, Pierce or Pau Gasol. It's too early to tell w/ Rose and I don't want any part of Yao, ever, but that could just be me and it's just based on the games that I've seen the Sixers completely take advantage of his slow ass.

How about you guys, where should iggy be on Simmons' list?

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Chris reply to Brian on Feb 12 at 18:57
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Absolutely Iggy should be on Simmons' list. 20 seems about right though I question his valuing of some of players.

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Max reply to Chris on Feb 13 at 7:47
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I wouldn't say Simmons is anti-philly but he definitely under values the teams here. I can't really read him anymore because of his typical Boston bias.

k. Here is one that works monetarily, I doubt the teams would do it but I wanted to see if the Sixers could get SG Kevin Martin (for pure shooting he's about as good as it gets) and a younger PG (I'm making an assumption for purposes of this thread that Miller would walk).

Sixers gets:
SG Keven Martin (Sacramento)
PG Mike Conley (Memphis)

Sacramento gets:
PG/SG Lou Williams - Young, cheap, can score if he's one of the primary options.
$4.2 million salary relief - if they want to dump salary if they want to blow it up.

Memphis gets:
PG Andre Miller - Vet to improve their young talent. That was the exact reason BK gave when he signed them.

According to the trade machine, the Sixers would get worse by 6 games, Sacramento by 2 and Memphis would improve by 6. I don't know that I'd agree with that. I think Conley on the Sixers would play much better with a bunch of scoring options around him. Plus, he does play defense and he isn't one of the 'scoring' points. He's satisfied distributing the rock.

I think Sacto sees Martin as a piece to build around, don't think they'd part for him for Lou alone.

Most reports are that K-Mart (2) is the only untouchable in Sacto (though others would be harder to get)

Be interesting 0- the sixers would have the second AI and the second K-Mart :)

He's weak defensively by the way

Id rank Iggy just behind Tony Parker. 23 I guess...ahead of Nash because hes younger.
Brand as the 2nd worst contract in the NBA...pretty unfair.

Did he say Arenas is the worst?

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gdog reply to Brian on Feb 12 at 21:42
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Yeah Arenas as the worst. Cant argue there. I must say though I am MORE interested in this team without Brand than with him....I think its the Speights factor.
On a side note...I am really impressed with Royal Iveys play in crunch time...hes been a real bonus. Is Kareem Rush on a milk carton somewhere ? Has he played at all lately ?

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Mike reply to gdog on Feb 12 at 21:49
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rush got some burn against phoenix. we'll probably only see him in blowouts like that for the rest of his time here.

Yep, if Rush is on the floor you know things have gone really well or really bad.

Second crack at this. The first works monetarily but the other team probably wouldn't do it. The second also works cap wise and is one I think they'd probably go for. My comments after the diagram:

#1
Sixers get:
Rudy Fernandez, SG - A true SG who can shoot.
Sergio Rodriguez, PG - A decent PG prospect.

Portland gets:
Thaddeus Young, SF - Very promising SF prospect.

#2
Sixers get:
Rudy Fernandez, SG - A true SG who can shoot.
Sergio Rodriguez, PG - A decent PG prospect.
Raef LaFrentz, PF - Stiff with an expiring.

Blazers get:
Thaddeus Young, SF - Very promising SF prospect.
Andre Miller, PG - An 'elite', mostly pass first PG.

The rationale behind both. Quick note before hand, I'd have done Thad for Rudy straight up but it doesn't work monetarily...

1. Fernandez is the best of their two prospects listed above. The position he plays he'll be blocked by Brandon Roy. He isn't going to surplant Brandon Roy - ever. Thaddeus is already blocked by Iggy and has to play out of position. He can't rebound anymore so he really shouldn't play PF and he isn't going to surplant Iggy. Thad would be a step up for Portland (who is starting Batum). Rudy would (probably) be a step up for us. I threw Sergio in as it was the only way to have the cap match work (the only other way would be Shav but we're already loaded at PF). Thad would probably be considered a better prospect than Rudy anyhow (last year he had the highest efficiency of any rookie other than Carl Landry) and higher than Rudy is now.

#2. Same as above but adding Miller for LaFrentz gives Portland some extra incentive as that is the position they are most interested in. At least, we'd have some extra cap space to chase FAs.

John's head is going to explode :)

Personally, I don't think I'd trade Thad for Rudy. Thad has a chance to be an excellent wing, I don't think Rudy's ceiling is nearly as high.

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Chris reply to Brian on Feb 13 at 2:57
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Hi Brian,

I think Thad has a lot more 'potential' than Rudy too. I put him in as he is in a position where Portland would get an upgrade and they might do. Bill Simmons thinks Kevin Pritchard overvalues his talent more than any other GM in the league so maybe he wouldn't do it.

Thad's 'progress' this year has been disappointing to me; very disappointing. He seems to be going down the Glen Rice / Danny Granger path (shooter who isn't contributing other ways) though he doesn't shoot as well as either of those guys. However, Glen Rice wasn't a very good athlete and Granger is just an OK athlete so they had/have to live off their shot. Thad is an excellent athlete with very long arms to boot (Josh Smith thought Thad should have been in the dunk contest). Here is a stat that will blow you away. Thad is getting most of his minutes playing PF, right? But he gets out rebounded by Rajon Rondo, a 6'1" waterbug who plays fewer minutes per game:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&=y&p1=youngth01&y1=2009&=r&p2=rondora01&y2=2009&=&=

Last year Thad was shooting better and was playing a better all around game (especially rebounding and defense). There isn't any excuse for him rebounding and defending so poorly. Warrick tore him up and he isn't even as good athlete as Thad. For Thad's minutes per game and athletic ability, he should be averaging around 7 boards, 2.5 assists and being able to stay in front of his man unless it is someone like LeBron or Gerald Wallace.

If they keep Iggy at SF, he'll be blocked and I don't think he rebounds nearly well enough to play PF (let alone hold off Speights and Brand with Evans and Smith in the mix too).

There's no doubt he's been a disappointment this season, especially on rebounding and I'll say help defense, but I'm not ready to give up on him. We saw a better Thad last season in these areas, I have to believe that guy is still there. Lou, on the other hand, I wouldn't mind if he was traded.

First off, I don't see Portland dealing Rudy in any deal, but here is one I think makes some sense...

Sixers

OUT: Miller, Williams
IN: Hinrich, Rudy, Frye, Ruffin

Sixers get a solid point and I have a bit of a mancrush on Rudy. They lose no valuable young talent. Lou has been garbage. Possibly manage to pawn off Willie in the deal to Portland... I think this is pretty fair market value. Last 2 guys are expiring fillers.

Bulls

OUT: Hinrich, Thabo, Hughes, Noah
IN: Bayless, Raef, Outlaw, Diogu

Bulls aren't resigning Thabo anyway. They unload Hughes' contract so they can resign Gordon. They get a young gun in Bayless. He doesn't fit much, but oh well. Outlaw can be another random wing for them. Portland probably throws a first rounder Chicago's way. Diogu filler. In the end, this is about creating cap space for their signings next year. Their only major loss is Noah and the front office may view him as expendable. I think this deal sucks for Chicago.

Portland

OUT: Rudy, Bayless, Frye, Outlaw, Diagu, Lafrenz
IN: Andre Miller, Thabo, Noah, Louis Williams, Larry Hughes

They lose Rudy in the deal, but they get some really great role players in return in Noah and Thabo. They send off Bayless and get a clone in Lou. And obviously they get a real nice PG for the next few years until they find one to buy.

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Chris reply to Joe on Feb 13 at 2:20
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Joe,

I like your trade better than mine (I'd rather keep Thad than Lou if possible). That is a fairly complicated trade, I haven't seen one this complicated in quite some time (maybe the GMs should be testing out the trade machine). ;-)

Lous contract and play this year make him rather untradeable.

As for Thad this year - last year there were zero expectations, this year, only his second year, they were too high and people gotta remember most second year players still need work.

And as for "SG" - sixers don't need one as far as i'm concerned...need some big man depth and PG depth

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C. W. McAllister on Feb 13 at 10:22
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How 'bout this one...

Sixers get:
Raef LaFrentz, Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez

Portland gets:
Andre Miller, Lou Williams, Reggie Evans

So Portland obtains a bench player they don't need with four years left on their deal and a PF back up with too long a contract they don't need.

Why would they do that?

I'll respond in spite of your ignorant tone...

They'd do it to pick up, Andre Miller - the elite point guard they're looking for.

You might recall Brian's trade proposal, byt the way. It looked something like this...

Sixers get: Rudy Fernandez (POR), Kirk Hinrich (CHI), Raef LaFrentz (POR)
Bulls get: Samuel Dalembert (PHI), Travis Outlaw (POR)
Blazers get: Andre Miller (PHI), Drew Gooden (CHI)

In that trade, the Blazers were giving up Raef and Rudy to get Miller and Gooden. In my trade, they're giving up Raef, Rudy, and Blake to get Miller, Lou, and Reggie. Not too much different, from what I'm looking at... just depends on the relative value GMs place on Gooden, Blake, Lou, and Reggie. Frankly, if I were giving up Rudy, I'd want a shooting guard in return... and Lou fits that bill. Portland would have a backcourt of Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Lou Williams, and Martell Webster (when he comes back). Pretty potent. And any GM would look at Reggie, who's basically thrown in to make the salaries work, as an excellent pickup as an enforcer off the bench. Frankly, I'm sure more than a few people would look at this trade and say that Portland's getting the better end of things. Frankly, I think it's pretty equal, particularly if Portland really wants Miller.

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john reply to C. W. on Feb 13 at 11:25
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Actually - your snide remark aside - there's a HUGE difference in your trade suggestions and what Brian Suggested - aside from purely positional difference

Check this page out

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm

This is why trade machines are bad - people just make numbers that work and don't think about what teams are looking for - especially when it's pretty public what they want and need.


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Ty Dennis reply to john on Feb 13 at 12:48
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Wait... what? Nah, dude, you don't make no sense. Portland be wantin' to pick up a point guard. If we give em what they want, they gotta pay up. We ain't just givin' Dre away!

And y'all seem to be da one full a snide remarks, so I woodn't be talkin' trash. Waddup? Y'all got a tiny one between ya legs? Is dat what it is?

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john reply to Ty Dennis on Feb 13 at 12:50
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Andre Miller is an expiring contract
Laftentz is an expiring contract
Gooden is an expiring contract


Williams and Evans are NOT expiring contracts and serve no need for the Blazers - so the trade isn't even close to the same as Brians original trade due to the salary issues.

I see nothing wrong in asking for a rationale as to why each team would do a deal, it demonstrates that some thought went into the deal as opposed to just 'making numbers match' - People just throw up suggestions with no explanation all the time.

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Ty Dennis reply to john on Feb 13 at 13:02
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Yo, yo... I get dat, y'all. It just da way y'all think you be da playa on did board. I read dis sh!t all da time and don't be cool... y'all gotta hear dat.

And listen, y'all... da Sixers can't be taken to skool on dis trade. If Portland want Dre, dey gotta come to da table wit da right offer. We got da goods dey want so we got da power here. And dat three team crap don't play... dat a pipe dream, yo! Fiction. Y'all betta recognize!

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Mountain Thunder reply to Ty Dennis on Feb 13 at 13:18
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No doubt. I'd be happy just resigning Miller... he's a pretty integral part of our team as far as I can see.

If the Blazers expect to get one of our two best players (which I presume they want because they think he can put them into contention to win the West), they can't expect to get EVRYTHING they want. Miller for LaFrentz is expiring for expiring ($10 mil for $13 mil)... except that the Blazers intend to play Andre Miller and, apparently, re-sign him in the offseason. That's the crux of most of the trades I've seen here. Everything else is put together to make the trade work. And since the SIxers have what Portland wants, they're in the driver's seat... not Portland. Portland can say "no" all they want and it's no sweat off our back. But when the deadline comes up, if they REALLY want Andre Miller, they're gonna have to give in to US... not the other way around. That's what's important to remember... and I really don't think you realize that, John of tiny testicles.

I'm starting to think the Sixers need to make a play for Sessions. He might lack the 3 ball, but I still think he is a better gamble than anyone they could draft in the late teens. I also prefer him over Sergio, Blake and Hinrich(because of salary.)

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john reply to tk76 on Feb 13 at 11:55
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I been saying this since the end of last season and been told he wouldn't be worth it - and now he'll be a restricted free agent - and the bucks might be willing to sign off on a trade of him too since they have salary / cap issues with all their guys to consider...but it's probably too late to obtain him except thourgh a sign and trade in the off season

I read somehwre that the Bucks would be open to trading him since they do not expect to be able to resign him. Sounds like that team is in deep financial trouble (you can guess why) and it might be a great use of Miller's expiring.

If Portland is interested, an 3 way involving Miller/Lafrenz and Bucks's expirings/talent might work. Why not steal from them?

I think he's played his way above the MLE level, unless he comes back down to earth over the last 30 games.

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john reply to Brian on Feb 13 at 12:33
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He may be playing way above the MLE level, but like you've said in other places, not many teams will be able to AFFORD the MLE level - but even that, Milwuakee might go cost conscious as well and be interested in a sign and trade.

If it's a viable choice between a long term for sessions and along term for miller i would rather have Sessions - and if there's a way to get sessions NOW i'd be interested in that too.



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