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Troubling Trends

You could probably make similar graphs with fast break points instead of FT's. They are trying to mask a lack of shooting and post play, but its impossible to hide.

They are streaky, and when their shot is on they can beat anyone. But they are only good for a few streaks like that a season.

Looking at next year, they will be a good shooting frontcourt with Brand, Speights and Smith. I'm not sure that is enough to overcome a backcourt of Miller/Iguodala/Miller (and Williams) that can't shoot consistently. Even if they sign/draft a shooter their are not many available backcourt minutes once Thad starts playing SF.

That means either get a new PG who can shoot (a trick proposition) or trade one of their young backcourt players for a shooter- likely Lou or Thad.

I think the fast break point differential would dwarf anything else. It's pretty much the only constant this team has. Last night they held a 22-point advantage.

That means either get a new PG who can shoot (a trick proposition) or trade one of their young backcourt players for a shooter- likely Lou or Thad.

So - thad

Lou isn't going to be worth much coming off his atrocious season and his new contract...

I don't think Lou's value is at rock bottom yet. They should avoid playing him at the point for the rest of the season for (a) my sanity, (b) the good of the team and (c) to stop showcasing his bad decision-making skills and hopefully recoup some of his trade value.

I have a bad, bad feeling that Thad is going to be moved this offseason for a lesser talented, "better fit" SG. Giving up on the Andre Iguodala/Thad Young wing after 21 games.

Ugh, I hope not. Let's play devil's advocate for a second, though. Say they can get a shooting guard for Thad + 1 or 2 bad contracts (Reggie, Willie, Lou). Which of these, if any, would be an acceptable haul:

The first thing we have to do is filter by 3pt%, and I don't think you can even consider anyone who isn't well above-average. So here are the guys who are shooting at lest 39% from three this season:

1. Anthony Morrow
2. Raja Bell
3. Jason Kapono
4. Roger Mason
5. Rasual Butler
6. Kevin Martin
7. Eddie House
8. Courtney Lee
9. Delonte West
10. Jason Richardson
11. Von Wafer
12. Wally Szczerbiak
13. Ben Gordon
14. Ray Allen
15. Brent Barry
16. Anthony Parker
17. Daequon Cook
18. Brandon Roy
19. JJ Reddick
20. Vince Carter (38.5%)

I don't think you can even consider trading for a shooter who's just average, or slightly above, so these are the SGs we're talking about. Carter and Jason Richardson are the two guys who are probably available, although I doubt those teams would be interested in taking back a bad contract or two to make the numbers work. Ben Gordon is a free agent, so he could possibly be had in a sign-and-trade, but there are complications in that. I still say Anthony Parker is your best short-term bet and he's an unrestricted free agent.

I don't know, out of this group there are a few who I'd consider moving Thad for, a bunch who I wouldn't. What's your threshold, or do you not have one?

Real and Speightacular on Mar 3 at 20:15

Love this, Brian. Well done.

"I mean, for a team that shoots free throws, collectively, at 74.3%, does relying on them to save you seem like a good idea?"

There's no choice. The only room for improvement from here is to minimize the PT of guys who throw away the ball (Lou) and the guys who pose marginal offensive threat (Evans).

I would be very upset at trading Thad for a majority of those names. Aging veterans on their last leg (such as Vince) or mediocre overall talent who might be better shooters (Kapono, Bell, Mason) have very little interest in me, because I don't feel this team is one piece away from winning a championship. There is very, very few people I'd be willing to give away a 20 year old talent like Thad for. If it's a similarly young SG with high upside (RE: Eric Gordon), sure, I'd consider it. But not for either an aging veteran or a limited role player. No way, no how.

That's why we should be giving Iguodala and Young all the opportunity to play together for the rest of the season on the wings.

If Thad is moved in the off season that's another strike against stefanski unless he gets a VERY VERY GOOD haul

I agree that moving Thad is a bad idea, but what's the first strike against Stefanski? You said another.

John reply to Brian on Mar 4 at 9:49

Well i'm pre supposing a strike against him when miller walks for nothing :)

And pulling the best 'scout' away to coach the team is something that bothers me, struck me as a financial move so as not to have to pay another coach while weakening one of the big strenghts of this team.

PS - does anyone track 'passed on open looks' for players - I want to know if thad passes more often than others.

I haven't noticed Thad passing on open shots. When he gets the ball in a position to shoot, he shoots.

If this is considered spam, feel free to delete. I posted a bunch of situational shooting stats (in non-pretty graphs):

Hey, this stuff is amazing. Thanks for the link. Two things stand out to me about Iguodala.

#1: 47.9% in spot-up situations (on 164 attempts)
#2: 45% coming off screens (64 attempts)

Basically, feet set, in a good shooting position, he's a very good shooter, or curling off a screen where he knows it's going to be a jumper, he's a very good shooter. In any other jump shot situation he's very bad.

You'd think they'd utilize this type of information in their gameplan. We see Willie work off downscreens whenever he's in there, they should be running the same for Iguodala throughout.

Mason and Lee are the only guys I'd consider. The rest are either not worth giving Thad for, or are close to decline. I don't think Portland will even consider giving up Roy.

deepsixersuede on Mar 4 at 7:18

A guy I would like here is Azuibuke of Gold. St.. 46% from 3 and a solid 6!5". L.Will. fits their style and THEY may believe he can play p.g. in their system out there.They also have a young p.g. [C.J.Watson] that is shooting a high 3 pt. % but when you put up numbers on a bad team you really can!t be sure how good a player he is. My hope is L.Will. and Jason can be used as bait along with a future #1, rather than move Thad.

Real and Speightacular on Mar 4 at 11:55

Good call, deepsix. I like both those guys for Philly.

Iggy is a top-20 scorer, tho near the bottom of that list, but yes, he's among the bottom of that bunch when it comes to 3pt percentage. The few who have lower percentages either shoot the ball more often or get to the line a little more often. Iggy does more than most when it comes to rebounding and assists -- he's a real team player -- but he's just not consistently dominant scoring-wise. That's ok, he's still a keeper, it's who you have surrounding him.

Consistent three point threats are indeed a rare enough commodity. But every top team has at least one decent long-range gunner that defenses have to respect and shadow. Spacing's a big deal.

If Philly can't beat the top teams with the style they have now, might as well see if they can join 'em a bit. Marreese has a beautiful, near textbook stroke, would it be a really big deal to coach him up to taking threes on a regular basis? I bet he'd love it and I bet he'd be pretty good at it. Remember that he's only going to get better at defense too, over the next couple years.

If a guy like Steve Blake could be added to the mix to run the second unit you kill two birds with one shot b/c not only is he a better, more sensible distributor than Lou, he can really hit the three, as well.

Philly doesn't need to match the other teams three for three, just close that differential some and be more efficient with their opportunities, whether it be set shots, drives, whatever.

Blake wouldn't be a bad guy to run the second unit, if he could be had on the cheap.

When Dean reported back from the season ticket holders lunch he said that Ed had mentioned Speights as a three-point weapon down the road. He's 2/5 on this season.

The evolution of electric powered text readers could be the final nail inside coffin of classic college books.

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