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Bad Idea

I read that this morning and, while it disturbed me, it answered a lingering question.

I have often wondered why it is that Speights and Young can be benched for not rebounding or defending while Lou remains on the floor regardless of how many times he keeps the ball to himself, goes 1 on 5, and jacks up shots, all while playing matador defense himself. Now I know. He does it because he has DiLeo's, and I'm guessing Stefanski's, blessing. Not only that but they want him to do more of it. Scary.

I don't know what being more aggressive and switching it up entails, but I'd rather not find out. I mean, Lou only passes up a couple shots a game as it is.

I guess DiLeo and Stefanski are willing to go through short-term pain in the hopes of getting long-term gain from Lou once he "plays his way through" and develops. I don't see it though. This is year 4 and his production (on a per minute basis) seems to have gone backwards (I haven't checked) the more minutes he plays. He is just not an efficient player.

This is year 4 and his production (on a per minute basis) seems to have gone backwards (I haven't checked) the more minutes he plays. He is just not an efficient player.

How is it year four?

At most it's year 3 - and since he didn't play much, if at all, his first year, it's pretty much his second year in the league with consistent playing time.

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Hank Scorpio on Mar 4 at 14:11
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Tom Moore recently observed that..

"Williams has the worst 3-point percentage (27.5) on the league’s worst 3-point shooting team and his 38.5 percent from the floor is a career low and third-worst on the team (ahead of only Rush and Ivey)."

More shooting is a bad thing with a guy shooting this poorly. Discretion is the watchword here. Of course, if Tony wants havoc, there's no better way to get it than giving Lou the green light to go nuts. Of course, I'm pretty sure it's not the kind of havoc he's looking for. It's the bad kind.

If Louis Williams isn't efficient what the HELL does that make willie green? Seriously - if Williams shouldn't be getting more minutes than Green should be treated like a horse with a broken leg.

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Barko McClub reply to john on Mar 4 at 14:23
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LOL... yeah, we got a real pair of winners on this team at the 2 guard. No question about it. Funny thing is, four out of five nights, I'd rather have Willie out there. Better defense, more maturity, knocks down a shot now and then (emphasis on now and then). Most importantly, there have been very few ocassions this season where I've pointed directly at Willie and said, "there's the reason we lost this game". I CANNOT say the same thing about Lou Williams. There have been a number of games where he's been an absolute game-changing trainwreck.

I still think the BEST long term solution is Iguodala at the 2 and Young at the 3- with a real PF - which hasn't been tried with a healthy PF yet - start speights - see what happens - who cares - this team ISNT winning the title this year it's time to accept that and figure out what you have.

Please keep in mind that when 'willie green' knocks down a shot once in a while he's a less efficient offensive player than louis williams - Hollingers per has a lot of weaknesses but it's a good 'offensive determinant' for comparing players - louis williams is kicking willie's ass in PER this year - which is why i suggested the broken leg issue for williie.

Your perception that lou 'costs' us more games than willie is purely that - perceptioni - that doesn't make it fact

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Chris reply to john on Mar 4 at 16:04
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I definitely want to see them try some more Iggy at 2 with Thad at 3. For all we know, Iggy could have just started slow when they tried it before. Put Speights in at the 4 and let us see how it works. I think it'll have a good chance to work at Speights won't get in their way as much as Brand does (Speights seems to roam more and not clog the lane). On the offensive side, I think Speights has a plethora of weapons would have to be respected as well as rebounding better than Thad.

I'd also like Thad to work on being more well rounded (like last year) rather than just a shooter that stands around (this year). He should be able to rebound better and pass a little more. Right now (this year), he is getting a game that is remarkably similar to Rudy Gay. Rudy scores more but he plays more minutes and takes a few more shots. Give Thad a few more minutes a game and a couple of shots and they'd be about equal. Otherwise, all of their overall numbers are very comparable. Gay has a little higher PER but his usage rate is a lot higher. Thad's offensive rating is considerably better and his defensive rating is better.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&=g&p1=gayru01&y1=2009&=y&p2=youngth01&y2=2009&=&=

Wow, that's a great comp, Chris. Let's hope Thad has clearly surpassed him in a year or two. Gay's defense has always been suspect.

by no mean is that an unfair statement. Lou probably has cost this team more games than Willie, simply because he's given more responsibility. If Willie was allowed to dominate the ball as much as Lou does, he'd have done far more damage to the team, in my opinion. That's on the coaches though, not the players. And Willie doesn't get a pass simply because he isn't get enough minutes to do more damage.

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B McC reply to Brian on Mar 4 at 15:42
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Yeahhhh... I guess. Though, Willie's getting 22.1 minutes/game and Lou's getting 22.8 minutes/game, so their court time is practically identical. You describe Lou as getting more responsibility than Willie, Brian. I really don't know how to quantify that.. or whether it's even fair to say. Of course, we all know Lou jacks up more shots than Willie... but does that equate to more responsibility? I don't know, man. The Andres are the center of this offense. Everyone else is just looking for their place in it. If Lou shoots more than Willie (602 vs. 483 in the same number of games), it just means he thinks that's his job. But, frankly, I'm sure Willie thinks the exact same thing... they're both shooting guards, after all.

So, more responsibility? I wouldn't say so. I'd just say Lou's a friggin' gunner... that's all.

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john reply to B McC on Mar 4 at 15:46
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One 'idea' in terms of more responsibility is not what the total minutes are - but when the minutes are - especiall in the last 5 minutes - are they both on the floor or is it lou over willie?

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BMC reply to john on Mar 4 at 15:49
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Interesting way of examining it. Valid? Again, I couldn't say. I'm just glad they're both not on the floor *LOL*. The ball would never get past the three point line (except when it was careening towards the hoop with less than 30% chance of going in).

The minutes they play aren't equally. By more responsibility, I was mainly talking about how Lou dominates the ball, and the shots, when he's in the game. No matter who he's on the floor with.

Check out the team usage percentages (basically, this is the % of possessions, when on the floor, that a player uses on offense. Shots, turnovers, trips to the line):

Iguodala: 22%
Miller: 21.6%
Green: 19.8%
Williams: 28.3%

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BMC reply to Brian on Mar 5 at 9:26
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Now that's just ridiculous! Iguodala, Miller, and Green are within 2.2% of one another (Iguodala being the highest) and Lou's a whopping 6.3% higher than Iguodala. That's absolutely absurd!!

Does the little bastard think it's his responsibility to dominate the f'n game like that??? And is Tony OK with this... has he seen these stats? Now, I'm just pissed off.

Unless Ed and Tony are complete idiots (God bless us, they're not), they can't be developing gameplans that require the guy with the third lowest shooting percentage on the entire team to dominate things in this fashion. So, what gives? Why isn't he benched for this crap?

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BMC reply to BMC on Mar 5 at 9:40
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Dannie (www.reclinergm.com) posted this. Very telling...

From Three:

Ivey - 35.7% on 84 attempts
Green - 31.7% on 167 attempts
Williams - 27.5% on 120 attempts

EFG%:

Green - 47.2% on 483 total FG attempts
Ivey - 42.5% on 146 total FG attempts
Williams - 42.4% on 602 total FG attempts

Ivey is on par with Williams overall as a shooter from the floor, better from three and on defense and will turn the ball over less. Their minutes should be reversed at the very least. Lou is getting a free pass right now and that is unacceptable.

After a hot start Willie has returned to form. Below average shooter, decent defender, great effort and a good teammate that knows his role.

Kareem Rush only has 49 shot attempts, hasn’t been given enough chances to make shots especially since Lou has played so terribly so I don’t even think he is worth talking about at this point.

His ability to get to the line makes him more efficient than Willie, at least in the eyes of most efficiency ratings. Personally, I don't think either is efficient, at all.

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john reply to Brian on Mar 4 at 14:56
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Not saying either are efficient - both suck - but one sucks slightly more than the other (in my opinion)


If you say Lou is less inefficient, I'll agree with you.

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john reply to Brian on Mar 4 at 15:02
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Basically what I'm saying is - yes - lou is less inefficient than willie :)

As my sister once said when wilson goode was running against frank rizzo to be mayor of philadlephia

It's the evil of two lessers

Two lessers with questionable contracts

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Tom Moore on Mar 4 at 15:32
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Speights ran with the first team at practice today because Green sat out with a right foot tendon strain. Though DiLeo expects Green to be back tomorrow and start Saturday at Memphis, he said he wants to get more PT for Iguodala and Young at the wings.

As for Williams, I liked that he pointed out the shots he's missing were open. If you're shooting 27.5 percent from 3-point land, why would the other team be up on you unless it's a tight game at the end?

I could almost, almost live with the terrible shooting if he wasn't coupling it with stupid decisions. He gets himself caught in the air with nothing to do with the ball several times a game. It's maddening.

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Tom Moore on Mar 4 at 16:13
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Agreed, Brian. I would've liked to see Williams sit for a game or two when he was playing poorly earlier this season to watch Miller and Ivey, but it never happened.

The level of denial is amazing, such as Williams saying he's backed off in the last two games (shooting 2-for-12) because Miller and Iguodala were going so well at the offensive end. He also referred to himself as "one of our floor generals."

Obviously it looks bad on Stefanski and DiLeo since they gave Lou that contract which looks massive right now, considering the Spurs are paying Roger Mason (one of the best 3-point shooters in the league this season) a lot less and he's worked out really well for them thus far.

The thing about Lou is that he has been so detrimental to the team (not just missing shots and turning the ball over but also playing no defense) and as far as I know the goal is to win as many games as possible, not let the younger guys play as much as possible. I'm sure both Ivey and Speights have a more positive impact on the team, they should get more of his minutes.

Minutes should always be earned.

At the time, I thought it was a decent signing, so I'm not going to rip them for it. Lou was a much, much better player last season. He's regressed in almost every imaginable way this year. Maybe Mo leaving has affected him the most of anyone.

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John reply to Brian on Mar 4 at 21:15
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It was better and cheaper than willies - so in that it was good

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Tom Moore on Mar 4 at 20:27
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I completely agree, Alvin, especially with the last two paragraphs. If he's not shooting well, Williams isn't helping the team because he doesn't defend and doesn't move the ball well.

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John reply to Tom Moore on Mar 4 at 20:34
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So why exactly does Willie Green play again?

If you aren't going to play Iggy at the two, which they really haven't done for months, that's 48 minutes you have to get out of your SG spot. Some have to go to Willie, some have to go to Lou, some go to Ivey.

I guess they could cut both of their minutes, extend Speights' and play Iguodala at the 2. Not sure why they haven't yet.

As Tom said above, the level of denial is amazing.

I don't know if you guys remember, but this time last year, Reggie Evans was getting the start at PF even though it was painfully obvious that the Sixers were a better team with Thad in there. Could be a conscious choice to not start the rookie. Of course, Thad was playing major minutes off the bench at this point in the season last year.

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John reply to Brian on Mar 4 at 21:10
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Don't remind me - i was screaming my head off every time he started - such a useless player in so many ways?

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Tom Moore on Mar 4 at 21:32
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DiLeo said today that he likes Green defending opposing teams' point guards (like Paul, Harris, etc.) early in the games to allow Miller to face the '2' for a while before switching over. If Green makes some shots, as he did in the four games prior to Monday, he'll play 25-35 minutes. If not, he's often at 15 to 20.

I apologize for yet another gloom and doom post. I guess Depressed fan brings it out of me...

I agree it helps Miller by putting Green on PG's, but that's just another example of this teams dysfunctional line-up. They have guards who can't shoot and guards who can't guard their position (Miller PG, Lou SG.) None of their rimary backcourt/wing players can hit from 2 or 3.

What makes this maddening is that the team had tons of flexibility last summer to build through either their young pieces, trades or FA. That was the time to put in place pieces that complement each other. But instead they focused solely on having athletes and adding a PF (Brand) instead of looking at the bigger picture of having a balanced line-up. And committing to Miller and Brand puts pressure on to win now, and yet the flexibility is now gone to make the obvious fixes that might have been anticipated last year.

I'm not saying the job of a GM is easy. It may be that the players they needed were not out there last summer. But its going to be even harder this summer with the tax hanging over their head.

From what I gather, the front office identified a post presence as the #1 priority, so they used their cap space to address that. They addressed it with the best such player available, and we all loved the idea at the time (or about 99.9999% of us did).

At the same time, I don't think they were blind to the fact that they needed shooting, but that had nothing left to work with, so they signed two guys to minimum contracts, and it didn't work out.

Where we are right now doesn't necessarily mean they didn't plan well. I think they accurately assessed the market. It's easier to find shooters than a legit guy to bang down low. Check out this list of guys shooting better than 40% from three, 7 out of the top 50 three-point shooters make more than $10M/year.

Now look at this list, 24 of the top 50 rebounders in the league make $10M+. The league puts a premium on big men, so spending big on a shooter would've precluded landing an impact big. The converse is not true.

great post and intersting comments

I still don't get why Rush can't get SOME playing time. yeah, I know, his defence is poor, he is only a shooter bla bla bla... but:

1) his defence can't be worse than Williams'
2) his shooting is probably way better, especially from 3 pt land. His numbers are low but he never had a real chance, it's difficult for a shooter to get hot playing 3 minutes per game, or garbage time.
3) I have no clue why we still play Ivey at the two (now lesser than it used to be 1-2 months ago, but anyway), anybody checking Ivey's shooting pctg should bench him for...ever, or limit him to 8-10 MPG, and only at the point

@ Tom

I think we played Miller + Ivey earlier in the season, enough times. I must say I wasn't that thrilled with the experiment...

Ivey is just a younger Ollie, but his shooting is even worse than dear old Kevin's, and numbers unfortunately confirm that.

I admit I used to appreciate him before, but now I better realized his limitations, and they are enormous.

Put Rush on the floor, at this point we don't have much to lose at the two position, all players we put there suck (LOL)

Ivey has been very good at two things, shooting threes and defending the perimeter. Just so happens, those are the team's two biggest weaknesses, so I'd say giving him more minutes makes sense.

ivey is a worse shooter than ollie?

Hope it hasn’t already been addressed.
I’m wondering if Lou got a little fan n happy with his 5 mill per.
He worse than he was last year.


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