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A Costly, Important Win

With all due respect to Iguodala, this kid Young is our crown jewel. He's been especially good this month. It's a bad time for an injury but thinking about it, no player is going to be fit forever, at least it's not a career altering injury or one that would cost him most or all of a season.

My idea is to shut him down for the rest of the regular season and split the minutes between Speights/Ratliff/Marshall/Rush. We'll make the playoffs from the looks of it, let's try to get everyone as comfortable as they can from here on in.

Hopefully Thad will be back for the playoffs. Needless to say I don't think we can win two games without him. I think he will benefit greatly from another four or five playoff games.

oh goddamnit. that article by fagan makes me want to punch the computer, and probably confirms all our fears. the injury looked horrible to me when it happened, as we discussed at halftime. thad looked like he was in a tremendous amount of pain. if we're talking 3-4 weeks you might as well just shoot me now.

Hey guys,
Upset I didn't get to the meet-up. Work problems, and ended up not getting to the game until halfway through the 3rd quarter. Friggin day job. Some other time, for sure.

That injury to Thad was just ghastly. To see him rolling around like that, it certainly puts a somber mood on the win. He couldn't put ANY weight on that at all. There wasn't a limp, or a skip. It was a 1 foot hop off the court. I'd be shocked if there wasn't some ligament damage. I'm going on the rest of the season under the assumption Thad is done for the year.

Despite the results last night, any real hope we had of stealing a round ends if Thad's out IMO. In a half court game, you can gameplan to take away Iguodala. Thad's the only one on the team who can consistently create in the half court.

My thanks again to Brian for hooking me and Noah up with the tickets. It was especially nice to spend halftime talking with other real Sixers fans. They can be hard to find at games this year.

I'll just echo others' thoughts: the injury looked bad and this team will struggle in the playoffs without Thad. Remember the offensive post threat we were looking for this offseason? Seems like we'd found him in the past month.

I'm hoping, however, that not putting any weight on the injury was simply out of an abundance of caution. From our angle it looked like he was actually being completely carried with neither foot on the floor.

Real and Speightacular on Apr 1 at 11:06

We can be thankful that the injury wasn't anything truly serious, like a knee thing or something.

It's been a bit of a chuckle (once you stop grinding your teeth) to watch DiLeo find ways to keep Speights off the floor. But it's going to roll into the borderline of high comedy/trajedy if Speights can't see 30 minutes a game for at least the next couple.

Miller's gun is smokin with all that shootin. Is he aimin for a new contract elsewheres? Why doesn't Philly pick up Chris Quinn a competent if spectacularly unflashy point guard who at least can shoot the three pretty well. Pick up Eric Maynard out of the draft as insurance.

I don't see Miller as this type though personally. When I watch him... he seems like he wants to win.

And if Speights is playing terrible basketball I would send his ass to the bench and play Donyell, Reggie, and Theo more in a heartbeat. I do think he deserves a good amount of burn though, but I wouldn't give him much of a leash.

I think Chris Quinn would be a solid, cheaper addition. If they let Miller go I think Quinn would be a cheap addition to help stop some of the bleeding.

john reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 12:19

And do you think there are professional athletes who don't want to win?

Some of them just prefer losing?

Mike W. on Apr 1 at 11:24

I had a similar basketball injury a little over a year ago. All 3 of my major ligaments were torn on the exact type of play. Obviously Thad is in a better athletic condition than I was, but honestly I think we have to prepare ourselves for the chance that he's out for the playoffs too.

Well, I'm gonna be the ass... let's look at the numbers.

Thad was in the middle of a hot streak blah blah blah... important point. It is. In January, the team lost 5 games. In March and February, they lost 6. In other words, Thad's recent scoring prowess doesn't seem to have transformed the team, so I think we can just look at his season numbers...

PER... 3rd
WP48... 4th(by a decent amount)
PTS36... 3rd
REB36(or REB% too)... 4th
TS%... 3rd
eFG%... 2nd
TO%... 3rd
Win Shares per min... 3rd
STL36... 2nd
BLK36... 3rd

And if you use Donyell's numbers from his last real season(06-07) they still hold up for the most part.(except eFG%, TS%, and PTs36 where Thad narrowly passes Donyell)

When Thad went down... my first reaction was "meh. hope he gets back soon. hope he can play SF next year." My opinion of the game was completely unchanged and my outlook longterm wasn't really changed. I think that a Power Forward playing Power Forward is going to be good in many ways for this team.

When Miller and/or Sammy looked like they would miss time I was borderline inconsolable wondering if the playoffs might not even happen.

Real and Speightacular reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 12:22

Joe, you're not making sense. Philly had a two-week winning streak in January, from Jan 6 to Jan 17. After that they basically played .500 ball until around March 13, when they started to win more often than they lost. Why don't you tell us when Thad's "hot streak" began and see if there might possibly be any correlation between that and the team's fortunes.

It's like you haven't been at this log the last couple weeks. Sheesh.

Thad is scoring more. I get it. It is great that Thad is shooting more and continuing to make his shots. The fact is that the role of a PF isn't to just score 20 points in basketball... He has to do other things as well and Thad fails at those things and they cannot be ignored.

Beyond the statistical view of the entire season, you have to take an on-the-court assessment as well. Thad is the third most important player on this team, and without him out there, good teams will be able to limit the first two very effectively.

With him scoring the way he has been over the past 15 games or so, the Sixers had someone else they could rely on in the halfcourt. That's going to be sorely missed.

Real and Speightacular reply to Brian on Apr 1 at 12:53

Third most important? Y'know, at this point, I don't believe Thad takes a back seat to anyone on that team. It's a holy triumvirate now with Thad, Iggy and Miller all on the same level, each with their own roles and not able to succeed individually w/o solid contributions from the other two.

After them, there's Sam.

After Sam, there's...well, Lou.

They're all important, but I think the team would be completely lost without Miller. He's the most important right now, followed by Iggy, then Thad.

It's all subjective, but that's my hierarchy.

My list goes Miller, Iguodala, Dalembert... major drop off

I don't understand why people would think Thad is more important to the team... just because he is shooting more? What about the fact that the team needs to play on the other side of the court where Sammy is our only real option to defend any semi-respectable big for more than 15 minutes a night. You can say you hate Sammy and that he sucks and all that... (I still think people are way wrong there) but the guy is crucial to the team currently. Speights and Theo are going to hold down the center position? In what league? The NBDL? There you would have a good shot. Be realistic here people...

Thad is a one dimensional scorer for this team right now. Spread around his shots and everything will be fine. You have some bigs coming off the bench who have played pretty decent ball this season in Reggie, Donyell, and Speights.

Not only that, but basing your entire argument over the Sixers performance in January is such an extremely narrow sample size that I don't think it's statistically relevant. The fact that the Sixers "only" went 9-6 during Thad's hot streak doesn't prove that Thad's contributions haven't been extremely valuable to the team.

Besides, 9-6 is 600 ball which translates to about 48/49 wins in a season

I'll take that

How else would I measure Thad's impact on the team over this recent stretch other than wins or efficiency differential and should I assume 20 ppg at 55% was sustainable?

I was just doing a brief look and a one dimensional scorer with a very poor all around game probably won't be missed very much, especially when we have capable back ups to fill his position.

"I was just doing a brief look and a one dimensional scorer with a very poor all around game probably won't be missed very much, especially when we have capable back ups to fill his position."

And that's where you're missing the board. If you think Thad has a very poor all around game, then we have a slightly different evaluation of him.

If you're going by won-loss, then you're obviously looking at the teams play while Young was in there to gauge an affect. Look at his +/-. If we have "capable back ups to fill his position", and he has a poor all around game, then his on-court/off-court +/- shouldn't be as drastic as it is. Yet, the Sixers are +2.6 points per 48 minutes when he's on the court, -3.8 when he's off. That's the second best on the team among regulars.

His opponents PER is 14.7 (82games formula, not Hollinger). That's best on the team. His Roland Ratings is +3.9. That's also second best on the team.

The team's defense is so drastically better when Thad's on the court then when he's off it's not even funny. We give up 105.7 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, and 111.9 when he's off. When he's on the court, we outscore opponents 109.4-105.7 per 100 possessions. When he's off the court we get outscores 107.1 to 111.9.

In terms of efficiency we are, once again, much better when he's on the court. We should 48.8% (efg%) when he's on, 47.7% when he's off. We allow 50.1% when he's on, 51.2% when he's off.

His 5.5 win shares are 3rd on the team.

And, you can throw out all these stats. You obviously were trying to find a correlation between his recent play and the team's performance during that time, and I think these are all better metrics than a 15 game sample size, but even if you want to throw out all of these statistics, I can't imagine how you can watch the game and believe he's a poor all around player. I just have to very strongly disagree with that statement. His defense at this point is criminally underrated, probably because of a few memorable plays in a handful of games (cough*boston*cough) that people are letting cloud their judgment.

Anyone trying to minimize the dropoff between Thad and Reggie I very strongly disagree with.

Chris reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 13:36

I think the numbers are somewhat misleading. Thad sort of had 2 seasons in one.

Thad wasn't having that good of a year until March when it appears something clicked. Before then he was down around 12.7 PER which is horrible (it is about Al Thornton territory). Since then he's gotten his PER to something like 15.2 inside of a month. So, he had to be playing at a PER 20+ level lately to raise it that quickly (better than Iggy or Miller). Look at his latest box scores, he's increase his rebounding and increase his assists a lot.

His game before was like Granger or Gay where if he didn't score or shoot a high % he didn't have any value. Now, he's becoming more well-rounded as well as a better scorer.

The Sixers should try to make the best of a bad situation and play Speights more now to see what they have and try to refine his game. If he makes egregious errors they can bench him.

My big fear is Thad had the same type of ankle injury that did in Grant Hill's career. I'd much rather them sit him out until it is 100% then rush him back and possibly ruin him.

and do you think Marshall can give 100percent for 35plus minutes day in and day out

Joe reply to crissy on Apr 1 at 14:28

I think Reggie can handle 25 minutes, Speights can handle 20, Donyell can handle 15, Sammy can handle 30. That is 90 minutes of the 96 available at PF/C.

john reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 15:18

And it's too many minutes for REggie and assuming sams standard foul trouble and offensive ineptitude - too many for him as well

Joe reply to john on Apr 1 at 15:21

Swap Speights and Reggie then... if Speights is playing well I hope he sees close to 30 minutes. If not, put the minutes elsewhere.

Joe reply to john on Apr 1 at 15:23

And 30 minutes is what Sammy averaged last season... obviously not too much. 30 is the minimum he should average form here on out. He should get the max minutes he can handle I think. I would like to see him get 35 in games he stays out of foul trouble.

His calf may not allow that.

Joe reply to Brian on Apr 1 at 15:41

If he can't do it, he can't do it. If he can't, I guess Theo is going to have to start logging some notable consistent minutes.

john reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 15:28

I guess that's great - but that was last year - this is this year - and we've played a lot of games - and sam is currently averaging 25:06 per game but still averaging less then 4 fouls per game (last year 3.3)

So maybe that's just line up stuff and it'll adjust or maybe it's that sam is so bad offensively they need other options - i don't know

When sam gets two fouls in the first quarter, he's done for the half almost without fail. don't know if it's punishment, strategy or just dileo forgetting about him, but that's what happens. same in the second half w/ his fourth foul.

john reply to Brian on Apr 1 at 15:32

Hes averaging on 3 fouls per game this year - it'd be interesting to do a minutes:foul ratio comparison and see :)

You'd really have to go back through the play-by-play of every game and see when he was lifted for two fouls in the first quarter to get an accurate look at this.

Joe reply to john on Apr 1 at 15:38

I think his minutes are just low because he has...

a) dealt with stretches where his minutes were drastically cut

b) he has been injured

Before his recent injury, the team had turned to him for help(over 30 mins a game) and he delivered, whether or not you want to acknowledge this is up to you.

Joe reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 15:40

I will start previewing my posts from now on I think. forget the other "he has."

john reply to Joe on Apr 1 at 15:47

Not sure when his injuries were per say but i don't see a consistent string of 30+ per game in his game logs


Brian - i wasn't thinking quarter by quarter stuff - i was just thinking of running a quick average query grouped by PF total in the game :)

Joe reply to john on Apr 1 at 15:58

I'll change it to 29 minutes, instead of 30. Where will you grasp more straw from? Those are the only arguments you ever use.


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