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The Final 6

Mike W. on Apr 6 at 15:28

Maybe I misread, but it looked like given some of the situations you posted, you made it seem like the tiebreaker w/ Atlanta is up in the air. the tiebreaker in atlanta is not up in the air. we have won it already.

Good point- but what if there is a 3 way tie for 4th :)

You're right. I thought they were 2-2 for some reason. I'm going to run the tiebreaker between the sixers and miami and update the post up top.

Thanks for the break down.

You'd think that after watching this team closely all these games I'd have a sense of how they will close out- but I honestly have no idea. I could see them winning anywhere between 1 and 5 games. The team is so streaky and unpredictable its hard to get a read on them.

As an aside, was just crunching some cap numbers, and it is really scary. Assuming Miller walks, the min guys walk and the team only signs its #1 pick this summer and next... That puts them at 65M. The tax could be as low as 67M summer 2010.

This team does not want to go over the tax (they have said as much publicly.) But if they resign Miller or use the MLE they will be forced to either dump salary or pay the tax in 2010. This could end up being the hidden cost of the 'Philly Max.'

They did not think that the tax threshold would actually go down. Now they have a unbalanced team (esp after Miller walks) and no space under the tax. Ed has some tough wok ahead if he want to turn this group into a contender.

noah reply to tk76 on Apr 6 at 19:10

The Sixers currently have $55,005,349 committed for the 2010/2011 season. Two more low-first-round picks adds about $3 mil to that. Assuming the cap that summer is $67 mil, as you predict, the Sixers would have $9 mil to work with. Obviously that's not a lot when you're still looking to fill 3 roster spots, but it's not peanuts, and plenty of teams are in worse shape.

The Celtics will have $20 mil to work with but 9 roster spots to fill. Denver will have $6 mil to spend on their entire bench, and two of their starters will be 33 or older. Golden State will have the same amount of cap room as us, but will have over $40 mil committed to shooting guards. The Lakers and New Orleans will each have 5 roster spots to fill and already be over the cap. Milwaukee will have $45 mil committed to just Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd, and Richard Jefferson. The San Antonio Spurs will start with half of their cap space, but only two players (including 34-year old Tim Duncan) on the roster.

The point is, every team is going to struggle to make ends meet over the next few season in light of what has been happening with the economy. Our problems are no worse than theirs. What it comes down to is, do we trust the people in charge of our team to make decisions in the best interest of the team and the fans? Personally, I trust Ed Stefanski.

Joe reply to noah on Apr 6 at 19:20

You need to recheck your numbers. Where are you getting them from? I am getting basically the same numbers as tk. I get right around 62-62.5 before the picks. After the picks, somewhere right under 65 I would guess.

Are you forgetting about Thad, Speights, and Smith?

Yeah, I'm getting the same numbers, 62.5M.

If they're saying they absolutely will not, at any point, go over the luxury tax, then they can't do anything but make their picks over the next two seasons. Plain and simple.

If they're talking about staying under for next season only, then reassessing, they can afford to bring Miller back (dependent on how much he wants) and to spend some portion of the MLE, depending on how much miller signs for.

Noah's right, though. The Sixers aren't the only team in this situation. In fact, they're in better shape than most of the contending teams.

Anyway, it's not something we need to worry about right now. Let's concentrate on these 6 games.

2-3 - that's my prediction

And the other game is a rained out?

John reply to Brian on Apr 7 at 10:07

Typo - sorry 2-4 if they're lucky

This team is impossible to predict. Brian, I love your work above but what if they go 3-2-1. They tie Chicago Thursday night?

Anyway, I think they will go 3-3. They will beat either Cleveland or Boston at home.

I would love to see them win 45 this year, I predicted that in December on another blog and I was laughed at!

Brian, are you atleast going to put out some feelers on my idea up there in NYC???

I made that mistake at realgm (forgetting that hoopshype does not count Speights/Thad and Smith against the cap.)

But Noah is right, the Sixers will not be the only team trying to work against a bad financial situation- but there are a ton of teams that have blown up there rosters to clear money for 2010. But those teams will be without talet unless they hit a homerun in FA.

I guess I share your optimism with Ed in charge,but on the other hand will not be shocked if they make some painful moves (like selling a first in 2010) to clear some salary.

Last year they gave away Carney and a #1 to clear capspace to get Brand. A similar move will hurt if it is only done to stay under the tax.

Not to be a broken record,but I wish the team could have unloaded Evans, Green or Sam-even if that had meant sacrificing Miller and any shot at a playoff run.

That said,I really hope they can get #5 and win a round...and then shock the world!

Was thinking a bit more optimistically about the cap/tax issue... Since the super-stud trio of Sam/Evans/Green come off the books in 2011, I would hope the team is willing to pay the tax in 2010 knowing they will be in the clear the following season. It might depend on how close they are to contending and how much they fill the arena next year.

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