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Lou Williams: A Step Back

"instant offense"

i am a huge Lou hater. i hate every single thing about his game and his personality. i don't believe he cares in the slightest about winning. i see no redeeming qualities in anything about his game, and i hope to god if there is a suitor out there who wants his services, that ES sends him on the first plane out of town. he makes all 4 of his teammates worse every second he is on the court.

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John reply to Mike on May 3 at 14:43
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So you must hate Willie Green too - since no matter how bad lou is - willie worse

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Mike reply to John on May 3 at 16:22
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i dislike willie, but as i said in another post i respect him more because he at least plays within his own limits, for the most part. lou does things that absolutely kill your team, like turn the ball over & then commit a stupid foul for a 5pt swing. willie just gives you nothing. so lou is like a negative 5 while willie is just a zero, if that makes sense.

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John reply to Mike on May 3 at 16:47
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Willie shoots too much, doesn't pass the damn ball and doesn't draw fouls - i'm not sure how you think he plays within himself - i just think the fact that you don't see green as a worse player than williams means it's not a rational hatred but lou stole your lunch money or something?

Here's the problem in the Lou vs. Willie debate. You're absolutely right, Willie is the worse player, but Willie is pretty much playing up to his potential. He sucks, he knows it, he plays like it.

With Lou, you can see that he has the physical tools to be a good player in this league. He can beat anyone on the planet off the dribble. He can shoot, his range extends out to the three point line, when he's taking smart shots. The problem is that while he can do all these things, he usually doesn't. And the fact that the team depends on him to contribute, and he just kills them so many times means he was more destructive to the team.

Now, is it his fault that the team puts their success on his shoulders way too much? Probably not. But is it irrational to say that he hurts the team more than Willie? No, not at all.

If you asked Lou to be a catch-and-shoot guy for about 8 shots a game and his usage percentage was under 20%, he wouldn't have nearly the negative effect on the team that he has. Just like if you gave Willie over 27% usage, told him he was "instant offense" or a team leader for 25+ minutes/night, he'd kill the team much more than he does right now.

Personally, I think Lou is just about the worst defensive guard in the league. He never even makes an attempt to stay in front of his man, instead he lets him blow by and then sprints to stay even with him. In fact, don't I remember a quote from earlier this season where he said, "You can't really stop people from driving past you?"

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Mike reply to Brian on May 4 at 2:39
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once again, brian is able to verbalize my thoughts better than i can myself. he hit the nail on the head here, imo.

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Joe reply to Mike on May 3 at 17:36
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I think Willie improved again. 2 seasons in a row? Wow.

Willie shot 3 less times per36. He turned it over much less AND his assists went up marginally. He rebounded worse though. I think he was better than last year, but I do think Lou may have been better than him. I'd have to think about it a fair amount, but I think the free throw attempts disparity is what puts Lou over the top.

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deepsixersuede on May 3 at 16:20
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If he is surrounded by a couple of shooters, like Flynn was at Syracuse, he could be tough to cover but like Sam he seems to think too high of himself.Did he improve defensively at all, maybe slightly,but he is still terrible.Until he can give a team more than he gives away down the other end he isn!t worth having.

i actually think he got even worse defensively too. that is one of my biggest gripes with him. he is quick enough to stay in front of people but makes no effort to take advantage of these skills.

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Joe reply to Mike on May 3 at 17:30
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Yeah. I agree with this. His D seemed to get worse to me.

Last year in the playoffs I thought Lou did a pretty good job staying in front of Billups when Detroit attacked that mismatch.

When Lou is on the court, you need to PRESS IMO so the other team can't get into their offense as quickly.

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deepsixersuede on May 3 at 16:30
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I thought he pussied out against Orlando. He is a guy that could of attacked Howard and got him in foul trouble but he stayed outside and seemed to defer to both Andre!s, which though a good thing in some ways, seemed against his personality.

What this year has shown me is that Lou needs discipline. I honestly think that one of the worst things that happened for Lou when they traded Korver, making him the best offense off the bench. At that point, they became much more lenient about his flaws and faults. Lou needs to spend his minutes as not the primary option on the floor. I mean, there were too many times where Iggy or Thad would be hot, yet Miller would run plays for Lou over and over again. It fed into his ego too much.

I think Lou needs a coach who will stay on him constantly, like Mo did initially. DiLeo is way too lax of a personality for someone like Lou, especially when you give him a free reign to do whatever. Lou is one of the reasons I would love to see them get Avery Johnson. There is no way Lou could've played the point like this year under the Little General.

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Joe reply to Sean on May 3 at 17:25
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Lou was worse this year with Cheeks probably. Just saying.

Yeah, that seemed like the beginning of the end for Lou and Cheeks. Last year, I think Cheeks pushed Lou to be the backup PG, and make smart(er) decisions with the basketball. This year, the whole mantra was that Lou was supposed to score off the bench, that was his job. Nothing changed at all in that regard when DiLeo took over. To be honest, not much changed at with the team in general when DiLeo took over, he just didn't have Brand, for the most part, so the team got back to running.

Speaking of productivity...

http://www.wagesofwins.com/BottomTen2009.html

The bottom 10% of the NBA according to Wins Produced.

Willie making an appearance at 35. Not shocking. He is up from #3 3 years ago though... http://www.wagesofwins.com/10Worst0607.html

Quite an improvement Willie. In 6 more years, you might be average!

Slightly off topic, but after looking at that first link, anybody still want Al Thornton? :)

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deepsixersuede on May 3 at 18:25
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Brian, if you were a bettin man, what are the odds that a]Deleo is back and b]they bring in a big name guy

Hmmn. I'd say 25% they bring him back, and it depends on your definition of big name.

I don't know how secure Stefanski is in his job, but he spent what, almost $200M last Summer on this team and they improved 1 game. Granted, Brand went down and no one could've seen that, but he has to be under at least moderate pressure to move this team forward, right? You'd think he'd want to bring in a coach w/ a proven track record to get that job done. I'll say 50% chance he goes with a guy like Eddie Jordon, or better in terms of success as an NBA head coach.

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deepsixersuede on May 3 at 18:47
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The list of coaches that these millionaires respect doesn!t seem to long; watching the game today and wishing Hubie wanted another shot.He got Memphis to defend when he was there but a fresh face [Thibodeox] would be interesting also.M.Brown I believe was a Popovich disciple, that is why I like A. Johnson.But if I had a choice of the same roster plus our draft pick and a new coach or Deleo and a bigger roster shakeup I would probably pick the former.

I don't think DiLeo will be coach next season after the way it ended, but it's weird...there don't seem to be a lot of solid, big name guys hanging around waiting for open jobs. I think more than a few of the active coaches this year were borderline incompetent and many won't even be fired. Honestly, the best name I could come up with was...Jeff Van Gundy?

I still say I'd like JVG, but I think I may be in the minority. Other names, Doug Collins, Eddie Jordan, the czar, Hubie Brooks, Pat Riley (highly doubtful), Avery Johnson, Mark Jackson, PJ Carlesimo...I mean, we aren't talking about a lot of unemployed hall of famers. Maybe a good assistant like Thibideaux would work. who knows? I was actually hoping for Larry Frank, believe it or not.

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Joe reply to Brian on May 3 at 19:17
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My only request... no Marc Jackson. That is it.

agreed.

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Mike reply to Brian on May 4 at 3:13
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how would you guys feel about byron scott? haven't seen his name mentioned too often, but i don't think his job is safe in new orleans.

Maybe Bob Salmi could bring in some instant amnesia to this team as a head coach! He can supply note books to the players to record what they will soon forget.

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sfw reply to sfw on May 3 at 20:49
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I forgot(oops). Sammy & Lou already have instant amnesia.

As I have stated before, I see more positives in Lou than most people. I understand why people do not like Lou and cannot blame anyone that feels that way but I think he just symbolizes the team overall.

I personally think a new coach and 1 more year with Lou would be the best for us. If Lou could get his shooting back, learn to stop doing dumb turnovers, he could be a very good player. Will it happen as a sixer, who knows. If he does not improve next year, he must go.

I do believe 1 day Lou will be a very good player in the NBA.

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Statman on May 3 at 22:20
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The frustrating thing about Lou is that once in a while he'll sky for a block on a 6'8 guy and make it in spectacular fashion -- which shows that he has the physical tools to be a good defensive player. In a footrace, he would beat all the other Sixer guards hands down. So while the other Sixer guards were below-average defensively because of physical limitations, Lou's troubles seem to stem more from a lack of effort.

Here's a surprising stat: as poor as Lou was defensively this year, he was still better than Willie Green, if the overall opponent production measure of 82games.com (a variant of PER) is to be believed. Lou was at 16.2, Green at 16.8 (Ivey was #1 among Sixer guards at 15.1, Miller last at 18.4).

Lou does have a couple redeeming qualities on defense: he steals the ball a decent amount and he has the footspeed and hops to challenge shots when motivated (which isn't all the time, of course). He gets beaten off the dribble more than he should (but no more than Willie or Miller do), but his worst trait on defense is that he's useless after he gets picked, a big problem when 75% of NBA halfcourt plays involve the pick-and-roll (or so it seems).

On offense, as I mentioned elsewhere and someone else mentioned above, his assist-to-turover ratio went down disturbingly this year. For some reason, he seemed to dribble into traps and turn the ball over a lot more than before. And it seems he wasn't nearly as effective as he used to be at driving and dishing (but he still did it more than Miller). About the only really good aspect of his passing was that he developed a good chemistry with Speights for a large part of the year. Also, he did look for Iguodala on the break more than Miller did.

If they keep Lou, I would hope whoever is the new coach would try to recapture what he was in 07-08 (when he was a weapon more often than a liability) rather than what he became in 08-09.

Can you give me a link to what you're referencing here? I see the opponent PER ratings, but they don't match the numbers you're using.

One thing to take into account is that they list Green as playing the 2 guard when he's on the floor w/ Miller, but he spent most of that time guarding the opposing point. Same thing with Miller, so the numbers would be skewed, right?

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Statman reply to Brian on May 4 at 0:20
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Brian, here is the link: http://www.82games.com/0809/0809PHI.HTM Look under Production (Blue) then Opp (Green). The overall opponent production won't match the by-position production numbers on the individual player pages. I have asked Roland Beech (who runs 82games.com) about this, and he says the methods of calculating the two are different. The overall number on the team page is the more accurate one.

OK, gotcha. Still, this is probably production by position, right? If you look at how they tabulate Lou's minutes, about half of them are at the 2, meaning, he's on the floor with Miller. In that situation, though, he's guarding the opposing point and Miller's guarding the 2, most of the time. He rarely guarded 2's all season.

Same goes with Willie, to an extent.

I think this also means Miller's defensive number can mostly be attributed to a combination of Green, Williams and Ivey.

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Statman reply to Brian on May 4 at 11:04
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Brian, my understanding is that the overall opponent production number on the team pages takes into account the specific opponent that each player is guarding (so it does account for guard and forward switches), whereas the opponent production ratings on the individual player pages tends to use the opponent who plays the same position.

The fact that Miller's opponent PER is higher than Lou's is probably a reflection of the fact that Lou got to guard more reserves, while Miller was (almost) always guarding starters. They both get beat off the dribble a lot (along with Willie), which contributed a lot to the Sixers' defensive troubles this year. Miller's one shining attribute on D is that he's an excellent post defender for a guard. I'll have more comments about Miller once you get to him ...

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Mike reply to Statman on May 4 at 3:12
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i think lou plays D the same way iverson played. they both cheat into the passing lanes, which accounts for most of their steals. neither can actually guard anyone (lou probably can, he just chooses not to), so those steals numbers are largely a mirage.

another complaint i forgot to mention about lou is how bad he is at running the fast break. he nearly always makes the wrong decision, and the optimal result is usually just a trip to the foul line after a missed layup. it's an atrocity that the "future PG" is probably the 5th best on the team at running the break, behind iguodala, miller, thad, & willie (debatable), in order.

Do what it takes - hire Jerry Sloan

I'm in. Get Sloan then figure out who's going to be stockton to brand's malone :)

a hornacek wouldn't hurt, either.

Just heard on 10nbc Sport Final w/ Howard Eskin and Billy King:

1. King said Sammy needs to be traded.

2. Eskin said his inside sources tell him that Dileo will be back. Billy King thinks Tony deserves 1 more year to bring in his own coaches and run the training camp from the beginning. He said that him not running the training camp is a very big thing.

If Dileo is back, Lou needs to go or a strong asst brought in for Lou. And, remember, I am a Lou fan.

This simplifies things, if King is saying Sammy should go and DiLeo should stay, then keep Sammy and send DiLeo packing.

I wish they'd stop talking to that jackass about the Sixers. He's the reason we're stuck w/ Sammy, Reggie and Willie right now.

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Mike reply to DeanH on May 4 at 3:05
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hahahahaha. oh billy king thinks sam should be traded? what a novel idea! i'll bet he thinks the guy who gave him a 6yr $64mill contract is a real jackass too.

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john reply to DeanH on May 4 at 10:40
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Eskin thinks dileo will be back? Good that makes me feel better, eskins reliability is that he's usually on the opposite side of what will really happen.

If DiLeo is back I'm starting the fire stefanski bandwagon immediately.


Eskin is the one that stated DiLeo is going to be coach next year. I agree about King, he has killed the team for years since he was fired.

As you can tell, Brian, our tv and radio media is horrible. Sixers wonder why their fan support is weak, there is a big reason. The hosts talk like experts and are incompentent in basketball.


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