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Wins and Losses

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deepsixersuede on May 4 at 14:40
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Brian, is there a way to determine wins and loses attributed to bench production? Seemed that when they kept it close we were a lot better.


I guess it should come as no surprise that the Sixers shot better in their wins. The spread, however, did surpise me. Almost 6% higher eFG in wins, and we're talking about an even sample size. That's startling. Possibly more startling is the defensive split, in wins they held their opponents to .480 efg, in losses they allowed them to shoot 5.5% better. I'm not sure how you can account for such a great disparity.

Be nice to be able to compare information like this to other teams in wins and losses - see what the splits are - as now the sixers stats exist in a vacuum so you can't really know what' out of the ordinary'

Maybe by the end of the summer i'll figure out how to get it all in one place

That was actually going to be my next step, but I passed out.

I'm going to run the Bulls through the filter right now, see what come up (starting w/ the bulls because they finished 41 and 41 as well).

OK, Chicago has very similar splits:

Wins
EFG: .517
EFGa: .478
OFR: 113.3
DFR: 102.6

Losses
EFG: .468
EFGa: .508
OFR: 101.1
DFR: 112.2

and for kicks let's check out Cleveland

Wins
EFG: .529
EFGa: .454
OFR: 113.6
DFR: 98.7

Losses
EFG: .478
EFGa: .525
OFR: 101.7
DFR: 112.7

The Sixers splits are slightly more drastic, but not a whole lot. The numbers just shocked me at face value, I mean, the Sixers put up the stats of the best team in the league over a 41 game sample, albeit an extremely selective sample.

One more team, the Miami Heat

Wins
EFG: .530
EFGa: .480
OFR: 112.7
DFR: 102.7

Losses
EFG: .467
EFGa: .526
OFR: 100.1
DFR: 110.9

Even bigger splits than the Sixers for Miami.

Well, as is usually the case when you go looking for something significant in advanced stats, it seems as though these stats tell us something very simple. The best teams find a way to play their best basketball a higher percentage of the time than the mediocre teams.


I think a problem for the team is that they struggle to find an identity. Are they Iggs's team? are they Miller's team? do they do better when Thad is the leading scorer. I would love to see some graph or statistical analysis focusing on remote factors>

1. what is their record with Iggs gets over 15 FG attempts

2. What is their record when Miller gets over 15 FG

3. and finally the same question for Thad.

but here is one of interest. what is their record when both Lou and Dalembert score more than 10 points?

Yeah, this is something you should definitely use Derek's database tool for, http://nba.phillyarena.com/teamstats/

Brian, I have a couple of questions about the salary info you posted:

First off, what exactly is a cap hold? What advantages/disadvantages does it provide for the player/front office? I see that it is 150% of the last year of Andre's contract. Why?

Secondly, wasn't Royal Ivey signed to only a 1-year deal? I get my salary info from HoopsHype ( http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm ). Where do you get yours?

Thanks.

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noah reply to noah on May 4 at 15:55
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I actually just found this article ( http://www.nba.com/sixers/features/speiser_q_and_a_080630.html ) wherein Andy Speiser, Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer for the Sixers, explains cap holds, among other topics.

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Joe reply to noah on May 4 at 16:51
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Yeah. John's link is a better site(the best I have seen) for contracts. Shamsports.com is also pretty good and sometimes has info storytellers doesn't.

As for cap holds, feel free to ask away anything about the CBA. I actually find that stuff interesting and I think Brian does as well. He at least reads up on it.

Regarding my previous comment...

their record is at around 3-5 games under .500 when either Iggs, or Miller shoot 15 times or more, they are also 5 games under when Lou cranks up 10 shots or more...

Also under .500 when Sammy scores more than 10 points....

the only positive was 13-10 when Thad gets up more than 14 shots a game.

Did anyone else see the report on the cap? They are estimating now that the Cap will likely hold flat. I'll find the link later and post it. I am about to walk out the door in like 5 minutes... I think.

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Joe reply to Joe on May 4 at 16:45
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btw, the report came out a month ago or so but I just saw it yesterday.

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john reply to Joe on May 4 at 16:51
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I actually remember reading that the cap might actually decrease a smidge - so hold flat is pretty good - i do remember reading it - doesn't bode well when your ownership is worried about the luxury tax

Brian, your post was along the lines of something I've been too lazy to write.

the Sixers have been such a streaky team over the past 2 years. I wanted to look at what was happening during the winning stretches to see how that can be better sustained with roster upgrades.

Anything jump out to you in terms of what the team does well when winning? One thing is that when Iguodala is on a warm shooting stretch the team does well. maybe that translates into future success if they can add another shooter, since the rest of his game is consistent (common sense.)

Was wondering if the team won more when Thad or Speights were contributing. That would bode well, since they should be bigger cogs next year. Likewise, do they win more when their PG is shooting well, or not taking many shots at all? Do they win more when they get offense from Sam? Any obious trends people notice that coincide with wins?

Here's a good one for you, and I actually think it has very little to do with the man in the stat:

When Andre Miller attempted 10 shots or less, the team was 18-7, when he attempted more than 10, they were 25-38.

I'd say the majority of games in which Miller attempted 10 or less it was because the offense was clicking without him, so he was able to play facilitator, instead of primary scorer.

Here's another trend:

When Willie Green shot 40% or better from the field, the Sixers were 28-20 (he only shot better than 40% in 48 games!), when he shot under 40%, they were 15-25.

and another:

When the Sixers scored 100 or more points, they were 27-7. When they scored less than 100 points, they were 16-38.

All these splits were found here check it out and let us know if you find any that you think may be telling.

Started a thread at realgm for people to post the most telling stat about the Sixers and their future:

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=902786

BTW, you probably know already, but Derek Bodner set up a tool where you can compare stats based on different variables. Easily generates things like Sam's rebounds in wins vs lossess, or the teams record when Lou makes or more FT's...

It is a phillyarena.com

Here is a Great one. Bodes well for the future too:

http://nba.phillyarena.com/teamstats/savedquery/305/

Speights 8 or more points: 27-16 !

Speights

Now, I realize he gets more PT in garbage time, but that is an incredible swing. Also bodeswell for next year.

Sorry, did not post correctly:

Speights 8+ pts: 27-16
Speights

Still won't post...

Seights less than 8 pts 16W 29L

Do not know why it would not display the 1st 2X

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Joe reply to tk76 on May 4 at 20:59
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You found an error. lol.

Was it

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Joe reply to tk76 on May 4 at 21:01
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it was.

apparently a

If you tried to use the less than sign, it probably interpreted as html. stupid computer.

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Joe reply to Brian on May 4 at 21:04
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lol yeah. that is funny.
Sometimes I forget that we can use html

I normally just use it for links.

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Tom Moore on May 4 at 21:51
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What do you think of the possibility of Doug Collins coaching the Sixers? Blogged about it from report on Bulls.com from former Chicago Trib NBA writer Sam Smith.

http://www.phillyburbs.com/opinions/blogs/intell_blogs/tom_moore.html

Interesting. But doesn't Sam Smith have less credibility than any other writer on the planet.

I was going to use the 'less than' sign, but apparently it makes things disappear.

Wish it was that simple for the Sixers to make Sam, Willie and Evans vanish.

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Tom Moore on May 4 at 22:13
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Smith knows Collins well from their days together in Chicago. It's an intriguing name and he would be tougher on the players than DiLeo or Cheeks.

He's very good at TNT. Honestly don't know how good of a coach he is, or wold be for this team. Just remember him as the coach from MJ's early years... and that team bore MJ's stamp more than the coach's.

What style coach is Collins?

Collins has always seemed like a level-headed guy on TNT to me. By that I mean he seems to know what he's talking about without being a jackass about it. I can't say I know a whole lot about his coaching philosophy, though. It's been a long time since he was on the bench. I'll always respect him for refusing to take the silver medal in the Olympics.

Looking at his stats as a coach, he obviously had Jordan right before he made the leap to best player ever (not named Wilt), and he also had Grant Hill for the best years of his career. I don't know, tough call.

Started a thread at realgm for people to post the most telling stat about the Sixers and their future:

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=902786

(sorry, yet another repost, my original got stuck way up in the threaded posts. I and less than HTML.


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