DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan

All  

Sixers

, all the time

A Crazy Comparison

is it chauncy billups? the unknown started a lot of games, has a good free throw percentage and a mediocore three point percentage. that sounds like a young chauncey billups to me.

user-pic
Mike reply to zig on Jun 18 at 4:00
+/-

yea i think it's billups. good call. who trades the #3 overall pick halfway into his rookie season? yet another example of a great college coach (pitino) failing in the nba.

it would be nice if williams could evolve into a player like him, but i really feel like billups has one of the strangest career arcs we will ever see in this league. he was highly touted out of college, as evidenced by being the 3rd overall pick. but then he didn't average more than 13ppg until his 6th season. and he didn't average more than 5 assists/gm until his 9th season, the same year he made his first all-star game (and has subsequently made the team every year since). not to mention that, at the time, he came almost out of nowhere as one of the most unlikely finals' mvp's ever in 2004. stuff like that truly does not happen.

user-pic
Mike reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 4:24
+/-

great bio on billups from espn.com a couple months ago:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=090511/billups

It is Billups. If you look at his career stats, the total of games played during the first four years is 215. I'm surprised for a young guy being moved around so much his first four year that he started such a high percentage of those games. Obviously, people had high hopes for him. Why numerous teams didn't give him a little more time for development is unclear. Maybe the trade offers were just too good.

Does anyone think the Sixers have a budding Chauncey Billups in LW? Well, I guess stranger things have happened.

Now, if Brian can just find a six year comparable player to Willie Green who improved significantly after that time, that'll make my day!

Another telling stat from above: despite LW's ability to do some things (like scoring and going to the line) well, he has not started a single game during his first four years. That is a testament to the strength and durability of Andre Miller. Unlike the majority opinion around here, I don't see how the Sixers get anything comparable for some time if they let Miller go. But, having said that, I guess if the team could arrange some sign-and-trade deal with Charlotte to get Felton and another player with potential in exchange for Miller, I would be satisfied.

While their stats may be similar, the players are not. Big strong point guard vs small combo guard. Larry B always loved Billups. I doubt he'd feel that way about LouWill but maybe he will develop into that Devin Harris type point guard.

user-pic
deepsixersuede on Jun 18 at 9:45
+/-

Good investigative work guys;well I will repeat my mantra from yesterday,give him a chance to prove us all wrong.Draft a young p.g. and let he and L.Will. go at it in training camp and see what happens.With M.Cheeks as a previous mentor and another p.g. as his head coach now in a system that doesn!t have to be run with the ball always in the p.g.!s hands, let!s give him his chance.If it doesn!t work,well,we got our answer,if it does we got ourselves the quickest p.g. in the league at pretty good value and finally can use our treasure chest[Sam,Kapono and Willie money] on another position.

I think its Billups, the key is that Brian said the player was 2 years older, meaning that the player had played just 2 years in college. Billups came out of Colorado as a sophomore.

The question is whether or not LW wants it.

Speakiung of crazy comparisons - my favorite - though not always accurate - draft analyst has some stuff up

http://www.hoopsanalyst.com/0809ew7.htm

user-pic
Real and Speightacular reply to John on Jun 18 at 11:13
+/-

Yeah this guy's one of my favourites. Haven't been there in a minute. He inspired me to come up with my own evaluation system. Great piece.

user-pic
Chris reply to John on Jun 18 at 22:25
+/-

Great find! I'm surprised Lawson is so high. I'll sleep better when we draft him now. ;-) I also noted Calathes up there. I think someone can get a steal on him in the 2nd round. I'd like it to be us.

I am also surprised Jennings is so low. I figured his numbers probably weren't that bad for the Euro league. When he gets compared to Bassy (rather than a quicker Kenny Anderson) it gives me pause.

user-pic
deepsixersuede on Jun 18 at 11:35
+/-

John, good stuff.Something about the Lawson diss of sorts has been bothering me and the only red flag to me has to be durability.He improved his shooting and though he won!t get his shot off with a guy glued to him, he should be very good as a catch and shoot guy.

if you guys want something to be sick about, check out this larry brown snippet:

http://www.reclinergm.com/sixers-draft-history-the-real-reason-we-didnt-get-paul-pierce/

user-pic
john reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 11:46
+/-

Saw that somewhere earlier - stupid reasoning - and i thinnk it's just larry brown covering his ass.

For YEARS the story has been dileo wanted nowitzki and king wanted pierce but brown 'had to have' Hughes, and everyone knows that when Larry Brown doesn't get his way he throws a tantrum - and we know he ran the organization (into the ground post 2001) when he was here...this is revisionist history by Brown trying to make himself look like the 'honorable' guy as opposed to the schmuck who couldn't judge young talent...


user-pic
Mike reply to john on Jun 18 at 11:55
+/-

i see your point, but i don't think this makes him look better at all. it just makes him look incompetent to draft a guy clearly ranked lower than another guy just because of a promise. everyone already knows he's a douchebag so he's not gaining any "nice guy" points.

user-pic
john reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 12:06
+/-

Oh - he might not look good to the media - but he might look good to an agent. Maybe they want to give a promise to a guy this year and the agent doesn't trust browns promise and now brown goes public as to why they drafted hughes.

I mean seriously, why come out with this now - no one saves face - and it makes brown look lik a schmuck - and brow is all about laying blame at other peoples feet - not his own.


user-pic
Mike reply to john on Jun 18 at 13:15
+/-

yea the more i think about it the less it makes sense that he would say this

I realize most will disagree with this statement, but I do not feel that Lou has been given a fair chance to succeed as a sixer. I believe he needs to start for 10-15 games and then decide. If he is a flop (as he has been so far, IMO), fine, the experiment can stop. But, until he is given a chance, we are just guessing. Billups, 1 full round higher draft pick, took a while to blossom into the player we saw. Lou may be a Billups II, but we need to bench or, even better, trade Green and see.

user-pic
john reply to DeanH on Jun 18 at 12:08
+/-

He's played with 'starters' regardless of whether or not he's started, he's had more than enough minutes - this isn't "Oh look we tried Iguodala at the 2 and young at the 3 for 300 minutes - doesn't work" - Louis Williams has had two seasons of solid minutes to demonstrate who he is - and he's done a fine job I think - giving him '10-15 starts' won't make a whit of difference - he's had solid minutes the past 2 years to show who he is.

user-pic
Mike reply to DeanH on Jun 18 at 13:20
+/-

yea i don't agree with you at all. like john said, he's played with the starters and during crunch time. he's had numerous opportunities. unlike john, however, i do not think lou has done a fine job. he was an absolute detriment last season.

williams & billups have absolutely nothing in common. if you read that article i posted, it was more of a situational & mental thing with billups. he didn't know when he should be trying to run the point and when he should be looking to score first. lou has never been and never will be a PG.

user-pic
john reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 13:33
+/-

I don't know that I said he did a fine job did I?

I think repeatedly I've said he's a guy who can score and draw fouls - i think i've said he's better than willie - i'm not sure I said he did a fine job.


user-pic
Mike reply to john on Jun 18 at 15:32
+/-

you just wrote, "Louis Williams has had two seasons of solid minutes to demonstrate who he is - and he's done a fine job I think"

user-pic
john reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 15:59
+/-

My bad - i wasn't referring to the quality of lou's play but to the fact that he played 'enough' minutes to get a read on his game as opposed to the first couple seasons where he didn't get many minutes - bad use of the word solid

user-pic
Mike reply to john on Jun 18 at 16:15
+/-

ok i gotcha

user-pic
john reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 16:16
+/-

The only thing I'll say is that Lou is better than willie :)

he didn't know when he should be trying to run the point and when he should be looking to score first.

I don't know. If you ask me, that sentence can absolutely apply to Lou. I'm not saying he's going to improve like Billups did, but I would like to see what happens when you give him a clear role. Either scorer off the ball or point. The past two seasons (since the Korver deal), he's been given the ball and told to create for himself, pretty much exclusively, mostly in isolation sets.

Just thought it was interesting how he measured up w/ Billups' early career.

user-pic
Mike reply to Brian on Jun 18 at 15:36
+/-

oh i'll be the first to admit i'm a bona fide lou williams hater. when i have seen him try to run the point, i have seen him fail. whatever positives he brings to the table in his ability to score, get to the basket, & draw contact, i believe is negated by his poor overall floor game & abysmal defense.

user-pic
Sean reply to Mike on Jun 18 at 15:50
+/-

There was a part of the Billups article where it specifically speaks about the fact that Billups did not start to understand how to think the game as a PG until Brandon actually took the time to school him. In fact, the two big influences that started Chauncey along the path where Carlisle could nurture him and Brown could polish him off were Sam Mitchell and Terrell Brandon.

Contrast that with Lou's experience, who came in under AI, then Miller came in. Miller is a good example of leadership by example, but, by all accounts, he is not very vocal off the floor. IMO, Kevin Ollie was likely a bigger vocal mentor then Miller is.

All that being said, I am not quite ready to give up on the kid just yet. Let him be a facilitating combo, bring a minimum vet pg as vocal mentor(like Ollie or Brevin Knight?) for both him and rookiePG, see what happens.

user-pic
deepsixersuede on Jun 18 at 12:35
+/-

jOHN, I believe your version more than Brown!s.The main reason they drafted Hughes was trying to find the tall p.g. to play next to their best player,that is why ,in spite of their greatness, A.I. and Barkley were tough to build around because of their size for those positions.Relating that to today,we all want a p.g. that can hit the 3 but if we take a guy mainly because of that one skill, and pass on a better player period, we will again regret it.

When he should look to play p.g. and when he should look to score,sounds like L.Will. to me.L.Will. will never be Chauncey but can he be a R.Alston type p.g., yes I think he can.And if he gets it, and can shoot 35 % from 3pt. land,than he would be a good candidate for our p.g. job here.

My point I was trying to say is give Lou a chance with clear direction he is the point guard (with a shooter on the floor that can shoot) and see what he does. I don't consider Lou a shooter and I don't believe he has had chance to play PG with a shooter on the team. Until that happens, I think it is unfair to "hate or criticize" Lou.

And, I know many disagree and that is fine. We will hopefully see this year the result.

user-pic
john reply to DeanH on Jun 18 at 17:11
+/-

And I (and others) seem to disagree with you - he's had a chance to run 'the point' - he's been the point on the floor - the fact that he RUNS the offense like he's still a shooter doesn't mean he wasn't in there with instructions to pass and distribute, it just means it's not his nature.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-090618

Hopefully we can get Lawson. Maynors a good player but Lawson led his team to a title and was definitly the MVP of that team. Just because he's 5'11 6' doesnt mean he cant be a really good player.

user-pic
john reply to steve on Jun 18 at 17:45
+/-

Lawson projects below Maynor and I'm beginning to get the feeling that Hollinger bases his opinions on how the formula work out.

I don't really care if he 'led' his team to an NCAA title - he was on the best team in the country - maynor played at VCU ...because he's 6' he has issues - because he's a senior upside is less - that's just how the way it works...neither maynor nor lawson steps in to start from day one anyway

user-pic
steve reply to john on Jun 18 at 17:51
+/-

Ty Lawson was a junior Eric Maynor was a senior. He's two inches taller and about 40 pounds lighter, not as fast or quick, and doesn't have as good of a jumper as lawson. I'm not saying Maynor isnt going to be a good pro Im just saying Ill take Lawson 10 times out of 10.

user-pic
john reply to steve on Jun 18 at 18:07
+/-

Man - i got em all backwards - my bad - for some reason I thought lawson was the senior.

Hollinger made jameer nelson comparisons for Lawson today - it struck me as odd since I think Jameer is built like, um a brick 'outhouse'.

Seriously a draft rater that makes ty lawson the 'best' in the draft - when most people don't even see him as a top 10 pick? I know there are problems in scouting and such - but I don't think they're THAT off :)

Either way, my expectations for the draft night and who the sixers draft is low

user-pic
Steve reply to john on Jun 18 at 19:34
+/-

I can see the Jameer comparison theyre both short stocky quick guards. Although i think Lawson is more of a true point than a scoring point. I;ll be thrilled on draft night if we end up with lawson.

user-pic
Tray reply to john on Jun 18 at 20:10
+/-

Well he's statistically pretty great, and you certainly can't knock the level of competition he faced. His efficiency's tremendous and his passing numbers are great too. I'll be very happy if we get him.

user-pic
Chris reply to steve on Jun 18 at 22:43
+/-

Lawson may turn out to be a better pro but I don't think it is that clear cut.

Lawson plays on a team that has HS McDonald's All-Americans at almost every position and he isn't seen as the primary (or secondary) scorer on his own team (that would be Psycho T and Ellington respectively). Yes, he shoots a high % but Draft Express has him having a very slow release. In the pros, he isn't going to have a ton of time to get his shot off.

Maynor didn't play as tough as competition, absolutely true. But he was indisputably *the man* for VCU. Even when he played crummy teams he was the one they focused on shutting down. You can read about the UCLA / VCU game in the tourney. UCLA put everything into stopping Maynor (and had 2 of the best defensive PGs to do it with in Collison and Holiday) and Maynor still came within 1 missed shot at the very end from pulling off the upset.

One last thing, Jeff Teague, who played them both multiple times was asked to compare them and he picked Maynor as being tougher to guard (from Tom's article), "They’re totally different," said Teague of Maynor and Lawson. "Eric Maynor is more of a finesse kind of player, with a lot of floaters and a different variety of moves. Ty Lawson is more of a power guard. He uses his speed and strength to get to the rim. I would say it’s tougher to guard Eric Maynor because he has so many moves and a variety of floaters. Lawson, you have to worry about his speed, but you have an opportunity to block his shot because he’s shorter. They’re both really good players."

user-pic
Tray reply to Chris on Jun 18 at 22:56
+/-

Also might be the quickest guard in the draft, which helps with getting your shot off. The 47% from three is fool's gold, but offensively I don't think it's unrealistic to project him as a poor man's Tony Parker. Floaters and things of that nature will come, Parker didn't come into the league with that stuff.

user-pic
Chris reply to Tray on Jun 18 at 23:31
+/-

If Lawson plays like Tony Parker, I'd be happy as a clam (not sure how happy clams are). I'm just worried he will be another (thicker) Speedy Claxton.

I'm not liking the depth or quality of this draft. Most of the top guys in this draft wouldn't be in the lottery in a good draft.

What are you basing the quickest guard statement on? I've seen Teague, Jennings and Collison mentioned in that category, not Lawson.

user-pic
Tray reply to Brian on Jun 19 at 0:06
+/-

You're right, I exaggerated, but he is way up there, and he's better than those guys. He had great speed numbers in the combine too.

I think he's the best of that bunch as well, although I still have this sinking feeling that Collison is going to wind up being an excellent, excellent value in the late 20s.


Expand/Contract all comments

Leave a comment


back-to-story.gif