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Andre Miller's Disappearing Leverage

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bebopdeluxe on Jul 2 at 14:54
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Can you say "Bobby Abreu"?

I think Miller's in an even worse situation than Abreu was. Abreu had a bunch of owners who didn't want to spend money. Miller's going to have a bunch a teams who can't spend what he's asking for, even if they really wanted to.

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bebopdeluxe reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 15:13
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While I really do NOT want Miller back at all, if we wind up signing him for two years, I guess I could live with it.

I would MUCH rather have Bibby for two years, though.

I wouldn't say it's bobby abreu, but as I said earlier I think this free agency will mimic baseball in that there's an initial rush of guys signed, Detroit, Hedo probably, maybe gortat, and then a lot of guys sweating out the off season and then taking what they can get.

I don't think Miller had that much leverage to start with as while there were teams with cap room, they didn't need point guards...i think his position is the same as it was before the off season started...the only way I can see it changing is if Portland whiffs on Turkoglu (who they shouldn't sign anyway) and then over compensates by paying for Miller.

But I don't see his leverage changing as the only way he was going to get big money (above the MLE) from any team not the sixers was most likely sign & trade, and now it still is

There was at least the possibility that one of those teams would offer him a contract above the MLE, that possibility is slowly disappearing.

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john reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 15:24
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I don't think there was a possibility of any of those teams offering him a contract above MLE because of need.

Toronto has calderon
Detroit still likes stuckey
OKC seems to like Westbrook enough to pass on Rubio...

the only 'cap room' team that is looking for a vet point and would be willing to consider more than the MLE in my mind was, and still is, Portland, only if they whiff on Hedo. Miller (the agent) could have floated some BS about other teams in terested in Miller (the player) but common sense says that Portland would have been the only cap room team willing to spend the money...at least that's how I see it

I really like the idea of bringing miller back for 2 years...the question is...could we still sign someone like a Gortat wiht the MLE ? or does that put us in the luxury tax...

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john reply to gdog on Jul 2 at 15:29
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If Miller gets the 10 mil he wants the sixers are probably in the luxury tax just with that deal...

The trouble for Dr. Dre is that the hole in his game -- three-point shooting -- has become over-emphasized in the current NBA. The worry for me isn't whether he has leverage over the Sixers. The worry for me is whether you can win with him if he *does* sign.

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john reply to DMtShooter on Jul 2 at 15:44
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The sixers made the playoffs the last two seasons with him at the point - and probably would the next two seasons with the point - there's no point guard they can get this off season that takes them out of the first round problaby

One thing I'd say is that, for Miller, the total should matter more than the amount he makes per year. After this deal, he is probably looking at NBA minimum contracts.

Given a choice between 2 years, 16 and 4 years, 24, I think the smart money decision would be the latter for Miller.

I'd rather wish him well and let him be on his way.

He shoots a lot for a 'pass-first' point (frankly, I think he hinders Thad's development) and with Brand heathly (hopefully) we don't need a PG who takes more than 20 shots a game every so often. He really can't stay in front of any of the quicker points at all anymore. One of Thad's big problems on D is he leaves his man to help when someone blows by their man. 90% of the time that is because Miller.

I'd rather be awful for one year and have Jrue, Thad and Speights mature more (and get a better pick) than just scraping by to get in and drafting just out of the lottery.

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john reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 16:43
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so what if he shoots 20 shots every once in a while, he averaged 12.7 shots per game last year and still averaged to average over 6 APG.

Offensively he's the best available point guard, aside from 3's, but over all he's a better point than Bibby and anyone else available

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Chris reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:15
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Still, I'd rather do without and let Lou, Iggy and Jrue handle the PG responsibities. Get some vet for a minimum or do the sign and trade for Blake. If Miller is here, Jrue probably won't get many minutes to develop fully.

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john reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 17:20
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Well I disagree with your assertion - someone has to play second team point guard, and if holiday can't beat out lou williams to play point, backing up millr, there are problems already since lou ain't no point

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Chris reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:24
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Miller is an ironman (one of the best things about him). The 2nd string PG probably won't get a lot of minutes with him around.

I agree if Holiday isn't beating out Lou that is a very bad sign.

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john reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 17:27
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He averages 34 minutes per game in his career - so there's 14 minutes at the point right there

His Philadelphia averages have been higher but I think that's mostly a function of bad back ups...i think it would go down next year.

Holiday won't be getting more than 15-20 MPG next year anyway unless he has obscene ROY like numbers...so there's minutes for him as long as the sixers realize lou ain't a point guard

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Chris reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:36
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If Holiday can get 15-20 minutes a game (at least 10) I'd not have any objections to having Miller here. What I wanted to avoid is scrapping to make the playoffs and playing Miller all game and Holiday getting a lot of DNP-CD.

Chris,

Miller "hinders" Young pretty bad since Thad passed from 8 to 15 PPG in his second year !!

But if you browse the comments last year (especially at the end of the year), you'll find people complaining (a significant percentage) as Thad would be 'hot' in the first half and then he only gets a few more touches all game. Part of that was Mo's and DiLeo's coaching (we have to cool off our hot hand or they'll get tired) but part was Miller would be hoisting a fair amount of shots himself.

If we get some other vet PG to man the point, we'll get along fine without. Now that Brand is going to be healthy he's going to want some shots himself. We also have a legit PG prospect who should be getting some meaningful minutes.

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john reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 17:24
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If he was hoisting a fair amount of shots it would show up in the yearly stats but he was only one shot above his average in shots per game...you're blaming it on miller because it fits your argument but I don't think it's necessarily true.

Andre Miller averaged over 6 assists a game last year - how much of a ball hog was he?

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Chris reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:28
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I'd prefer his stats from his younger years when he scored a little less and assisted a little more. He did at one time average over 10 assists and even led the league in assists once. I don't expect that now but I do think he could average about 12 pts. with 8-9 assists.

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Chris reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:30
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So, is this like in hockey, football and baseball? Where if you can't sign the guy they go back in the draft? If so, it'd serve Kahn right. He really mishandled this whole situation.


Brian Commence Crying

Marcin Gortat on his way to Dallas, literally and figuratively. Promises Mavs he'll sign offer sheet July 8th. ESPN.com link on the way
Marc Stein Tweet

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Steve reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:31
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http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4303432

Houston may want sammy d now. Would you be willing to take a one year shot at mcgrady in a contract year?

Cuban's a smart guy.

Sean (Philly)


Andre Miller...Where and how?

John Hollinger (3:18 PM)


My spies think it's unlikely he returns to Philly. It's possible he could end up in Portland in a sign-and-trade, but I haven't heard about anyone really making a hard push for him yet


if the sign and trade of miller for blake and outlaw is on the table, Ed needs to do that asap. Outlaw is a stud and only getting better.

Answering a bunch of things at once.

Chris - NBA you hold a guys draft rights forever I think - but there's a cap hold - so they could renounce it if they wanted i think - not sure what happens then.

Steve

1. Houston most likely won't want Sam, they can get better for mcgrady and the contracts don't come close to matching.

2. The blazers S&T for Miller thing has been dismissed by Pritchard repeatedly...until they hit or miss on Hedo they don't care about ANdre Miller anyway.

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Chris reply to john on Jul 2 at 18:07
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So, Rubio's only leverage is to stay in Spain? There isn't some way for him to go back in the draft? That sucks for him as I doubt the Wolves will renounce his rights.

Kahn would be better served doing an auction for him to the highest bidder.

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john reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 18:08
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He can leverage a trade by refusing to play - but I don't know how long the rights are owned - but that's how toronto snagged good players late - draft em young -stash em in europe until they're ready :)

Rubio can sit out a year completely, as in not play in Europe either, then re-enter the draft next season. He can only do that once, though, so conceivably he could sit out 2009-2010, then the T-Wolves could draft him again next Summer :)

Hollinger is answering alot of sixers questions today.

AstroMan (Dubai)


If the sixers can't get Miller will they go after Jarrett Jack or Mike Bibby?

John Hollinger (4:05 PM)


I'm hearing that they won't, that they'll promote Williams, sign a veteran backup and go into the season that way.

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john reply to Steve on Jul 2 at 17:49
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I hope that he's completely and totally wrong

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Steve reply to john on Jul 2 at 17:52
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I'm hoping Toronto renounces the rights to Marion supposedly they're dying to get Hedo. Then Pritchard may want to do the sign and trade miller for blake and outlaw.

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john reply to Steve on Jul 2 at 17:55
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Toronto has to do more than renounce rights to Marion to get Hedo, it's like 3 to 4 players i forget the whole list, but I think one is delfino who they are about to re-sign according to toronto papers

Parker, Delfino and Marion, I believe.

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deepsixersuede reply to john on Jul 2 at 18:53
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I think Houston may go after Sam, but won!t give up McGrady!s expiring.They drafted a couple young shooters and have a guy [V.Wafer] that would fit here in a sign-n-trade.Wafer [4 mill.?],B.Cook [3.5 mill. exp.],Barry [2 mill. exp.]C.Hayes[2 to 3 mill.]. But a future draft pick would probably have to be added on our end,Morey!s not stupid.As far as Rubio, I believe if he sits out a year, he goes back in the draft but he can!t afford to now.

If Houstong makes a trade for Sam Dalembert that involves Tracy McGrady and the sixers keep speights, young, holiday and iguodala - i'll give you 50 dollars.

You're right, Morey isn't stupid - so why the hell does he want sam dalembert - they'll find more affordable options that won't whine when they get benched

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deepsixersuede reply to john on Jul 2 at 19:01
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jOHN, Z. Randolph just got traded,anything is possible.He [Morey] just lost his Varijio for Artest option [sign-trade].If he can acquire Sam without giving up a top 8 rotation guy,yes I think it is possible.And no, I said he wouldn!t use McGrady.

You know...sometimes I wish you could type better and separate your thoughts so I could be clear on what you are saying...let me try this.

1. Daryl Morey - again - is not an idiot - the ownership in Memphis - is idiots - don't compare the two issues.

2. The Rockets supposedly had no fracking interest in Artest for more than a year.

3. Sam for McGrady DOES NOT WORK people - it requires more players from the sixers - the sixers get the better player AND the contract- MOREY IS NOT A MORON - say it with me - it would require proper motivation (think speights, young, holiday) to get him to make the deal. Mcgrady for Dalembert is a stupid panic move and Morey doesn't strike me as a stupid panic move person.

Oh yeah, Tracy McGrady as an expiring contract probably has more value than 'sam dalembert' - jesus - i agree with hollinger on this - NO ONE WANTSS HIM

But peole want tyson chandler - which is fascinating to me

I don't think McGrady for maybe half a season off surgery is the better player in a deal built around McGrady and Dalembert, but he's far and away the better contract.

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john reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 19:14
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I think Morey can do much better for McGrady than a deal built around Sam. I told you this 'writers spitballing' would snowball into something people who aren't fully paying attention would take seriously.

Is McGrady's contract insured? I can't recall if it was one of the uninsurable.

Artest to the Lakers (in the Breaking News banner up top)
http://www.cbssports.com/nba

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john reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 19:00
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Interesting wording of that headline :)

Wow. That's what they needed if they're going to lose Ariza, a wing to take the tougher defensive assignment so Kobe can coast.

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john reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 19:11
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No one else has this yet - not even a twitter, and the report is that ron artest told the guy he's signing with the Lakers - not exactly the same as a report :)

I think this is a mistake and they shouldn't have screwed over Ariza

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Joe reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 19:11
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I'd rather have Ariza by a large margin.

If the Cavs now get Ariza, I'm looking at the odds for the Cavs to win 70.

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john reply to Joe on Jul 2 at 19:15
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If they get ariza and you think they'll win 70 - i'll bet you they won't

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deepsixersuede reply to john on Jul 2 at 19:22
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John, my typing isn!t the greatest, but I never mentioned Mc Grady for Sam.Ariza, to me, is like Rondo in Boston,good defending role players that would get exposed if not surrounded by bigtime talent. I think this is just what the Lakers need to repeat, all complacency out of the picture.

If the Cavs now get Ariza, I'm looking at the odds for the Cavs to win 70.

Why would you look at the odds unless you think they can win 70 with Ariza.

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Joe reply to john on Jul 2 at 19:57
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Why would I look at odds unless I think they can win 70 with Ariza?

Because I think 70 wins is reasonable with Ariza, so I would look at the odds and see if I think they are too conservative. If so, I'd probably look into making a wager.

They did win 66 games last season, bud.

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John reply to Joe on Jul 2 at 20:21
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66 ain't 70 - how many great teams didn't win 70 in a season? Adding Shaq and Ariza doesn't make them a great team. I expect them to flounder more in the beginning of the season personally...

That team is going to be real interesting next season since Mike Brown will be on the hot seat from day one.

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Joe reply to john on Jul 2 at 19:28
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Since you seem to be taking my comment out of context, I will do the same. Give me 50/1 odds and name your price.

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The Greek on Jul 2 at 19:02
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I say offer Miller 2 years for 12 million and not a penny more.

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deepsixersuede on Jul 2 at 19:57
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Brian, if this drags on all summer and Miller has to take what E.S. offers, what attitude does he bring to camp and how does he mentor Jrue? Does Stafanski throw him a bone [extra mill. per?] to keep him happy.

I don't know, I mean, you can't overpay a guy just so he isn't pissed off. If he tries to walk, doesn't find a taker and winds up coming back to the Sixers for whatever they offered, I'm not exactly sure how he can be pissed at Stefanski. If he really thinks he's worth more and he isn't getting offers anywhere, then sign a one-year, $8M deal with Philly and try your luck again next Summer.

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John reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 21:31
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Yeah, I don't see paying a guy an extra million - if that makes him happy - I'm less interested in him.

Based on all the reports of Millers personality and approach to the game, I don't see him mentoring anybody - thank goodness McKie is still on the coaching staff (yet no big man coach huh?)

Was O'Koren a big?

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John reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 21:34
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If this is the right guy 6'7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_O%27Koren

Yep, SF. They had a big man coach on staff last year, or at least a guy who worked w/ them. Interesting. I say put Moses on staff.

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John reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 21:38
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Though they should be working themselves in the off season it'd be nice to see the sixers bring someone in to help the guys who still want to get better (by now we all know Sam ain't working)

The Rockets are a lottery team right now. Wonder if they're going to bite the bullet, play out the string and try to reload in free agency next season.

You knew this was coming at some point.

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John reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 21:37
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I already knew that the dude from Dime Magazine who shows up on ESPN was an idiot - but is it a requirement to work for Dime Magazine that you're a putz? The sixers are going to stink yet they'll be the four seed maybe?

Ariza agrees to deal with Rockets according to Stein

Hmmn...does that swap favor the Rockets or the Lakers? I'm not so sure Ariza is going to be effective if he's asked to play a larger role.

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John reply to Brian on Jul 2 at 22:12
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I think it favors the Rockets personally, because I think Ariza fits the Lakers roster better than Artest does...Artest doesn't work in the triangle, Artest isn't a good a defender as his reputation indicates, as long as he's interested...and he's just older...3 years 18 mil...still I think the Lakers made a pretty big mistake so far...I think Ariza found his confidence with the Lakers this year and knows his role a lot better now, and I don't think the Rockets will ask him to do more than he can, they won't ask him to be Artest. His game isn't Artests game

I suppose he makes them better, but there nothing but a group of limited role players at this point. If they don't ask Ariza to do more than he's capable of, I don't know who's going to do it.

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Chris reply to John on Jul 2 at 22:26
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I can't believe Chicago would do this. In the past, you could say AI could sell tickets but doubt that is the case now. Plus, after the Detroit fiasco, who in their right mind would bring him off the bench?

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John reply to Chris on Jul 2 at 22:32
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I thought it was hysterical - of course then there's the rumor that the cavs are working on a S&T for Anthony Parker from the Raptors, what would the cavs give up I wonder

gortat is going to dallas. sorry brian.

Sorry about Gortat, Brian.

I just asked this at realGM. any opinions? (Sorry so long winded.)

Looking at the direction this team seems to be headed, do you see Brand here for the long haul?

If they really enter next year with Lou / Holiday / min salary PG and a roster where all of the other relevant players are 19-25 will it be worth keeping Brand around for the long haul?

Not saying they need to move him tomorrow... but if we are waiting 2-3 years for Holiday to be ready at PG, as well as Speights and Thad to be near their prime... do we want to be committing 2yr/37M to the final seasons of Brands contract (age 32-34?)

I'm all for being patient and building for the future. But if we are planning on treading water a couple of years to let the young core develop, is there a reason to keep Brand around?

Again, not saying move him this summer, but do you see this teams apparent direction compatible with the Brand signing?


Gut feeling: Will Brand be a Sixer in 2 years?

Yeah, my gut feeling is that he'll be here at least until the final year of his deal. The Sixers are in a unique position. Yes, they're waiting for players to mature, but they're not waiting for everyone to improve drastically. Iguodala is basically there, just having him on your team gives you a shot against most teams. Thad is on the cusp of being a very, very efficient and effective player. Speights needs work on his defense, but his offensive game is much more advanced than it should be at his age. This group is going to win it's fair share of games while it's maturing.

Now, how does this affect the Brand situation? Look at it like this: the only way they'll be able to move his contract for a fair return in the next two years is if he's legitimately back to the player he was before the injuries, or at least damned close. That's the only way he's worth that contract to a team that's trading for him. If he returns to that level, I believe the team is going to win a whole lot of games. If they're winning and the young core is maturing, why would they want to trade him?

On the other hand, if the injuries really have slowed him, and he never regains his form, then the contract is just too big to move.

The only way I see him moved (outside of a swap of bad contracts) is if he fully recovers, but the team just doesn't gel around him. His value rises, but the team success doesn't follow. One way this could happen is by playing him at the five and putting piss-poor defensive lineups on the floor consistently.

Make sense?

Makes sense- and agree.

But if they have all of these good pieces you have to get an NBA level PG. Lou, Holiday and a min signing just won't cut it- unless you are figuring on letting Holiday grow into the job over 2-3 years.

Sounds odd given the talent level of the rest of the team.

Of course entering last year with talent but no one who could shoot was sort of odd also.

Maybe if things really bog down at times they'll run Iguodala at the point. As the roster stands right now, the best lineup they could probably put on the floor may just be:

iguodala
kapono
Thad
brand
dalembert

4 good offensive players and 4 good defensive players

So I guess Gortat and Dampier 'could' make a decent center combo...

Patrick Cassidy has yet to write a single intelligent thing on Dimemag.

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John reply to raro on Jul 3 at 11:51
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I've never read anything intelligent from Dime Magazine, period

Not sure if anyone saw this but it is in the Philly paper that the Sixers contacted Mike Bibby at the start of the FA period and he rebuffed them.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20090703_76ers__interest_in_Mike_Bibby_not_mutual.html


Bibby wants the most money, which comes from ATL at this point. If the Sixers are going to get him, it's going to be much later, if/when ATL decides he isn't worth $10M per.

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John reply to Brian on Jul 3 at 12:32
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I don't think ATL thinks he's worth 10 mil a year now - hence obtaining crawford for insurance?

Andre Miller is hoping that Tukoglu listens to his wife right now...cause then there's Portland holding the bag...

ariza is going to houston

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Duracorr on Jul 3 at 12:40
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What do you think the difference in wins would be this year with and without Andre Miller assuming Williams and Holiday get most of the minutes at the point w/o him?

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John reply to Duracorr on Jul 3 at 12:41
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If the roster stays the way it is right now?

I'd say 5-10 less wins

That's probably accurate. Doesn't mean they lose 5-10 more games than this season, because you have to factor in Brand, Jordan etc. But 5-10 fewer than they would've won if Miller had been the starting point instead of Lou sounds about right.

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John reply to Brian on Jul 3 at 17:40
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Well I think 5-10 less than this year because of brand and jordan actually - new pieces - and a horrible point guard starting - i'd peg em at 36 wins max if the roster didn't change


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