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Predicting 2010: Jrue Holiday

Real and Speightacular on Sep 11 at 3:41

Wow. If those are your real expectations (as opposed to hopes/dreams), I'm super positive you're going to be sorely disappointed. You're way too optimistic, it sez here, in almost every category except rebounds (but, tho it wasn't a category, i'll agree he should have a nice 2pt fg%).

Your turnovers and fouls look a little high, even for Jrue. Overall I think he'll play to his calling cards this first year: above average defense/rebounding; occasionally he'll score at the hole; poor decision-making as a facilitator.

Can't see him taking over the starting role this year (of course barring injury) and if Lou ups his defense to mediocre, it might be tough for him to break through next year, too.

I agree with you.

I don't see him taking over the starting role either, just see his minutes probably increasing as the season wears on. As for the projections, the shooting percentages are the only things I'm not really all that comfortable with, but I have him taking very few shots, his usage % would be below 20%. I don't see him trying to do too much offensively, so I think the percentages should be decent if he's only taking wide open shots.

I was thinking about this last night, and mostly agree with Brian's assessment. There are just so many minutes there for the taking at PG. He just has to be solid and under control- which I know is asking a lot of a 19 year old PG.

But looking at the summer league games it is clear that he is more than happy to act as a facilitator and give non-stop defensive effort. He also has a very good handle and can dribble to where he needs to go.

I don't see him as much of a creator at this stage, so I don't expect big assist numbers right away. He also will give up some ugly TO's as he learns how to handle traps and what types of passes you can get away with. But those will be temporary.

The kid seems to have a demeanor similar to Thad. He seems a bit up tight out there, but he responds by trying to play within himself. i don't see someone who will force the issue before he is ready. I don't expect him to dominate the ball or generate a ton of TOs.

Also, like Thad, he missed a ton of easy inside shots in his first Summer League. In Thad's case this came down to just needing to get a comfort level. I'm hoping that it will be the same for Jrue and that he'll be able to take advantage of his size and ability to get into the lane.

Remember, in HS scouts equating his style of game to Chris Paul. The players are physically different, but Jrue supposedly had the same style of probing the defense relentlessly in order to open up easy looks for teammates. I'm certainly not expecting anything like that this year, but I doo think he might just surprise a lot of people and play with a level of control that is ahead of his years.

I'm definitely more worried about turnovers than bad shots, but he's a rookie PG, those things are to be expected.

Here's an interesting comp. I believe only 3 or 4 PGs have played more than 1,200 minutes in their rookie year for playoff teams: Tony Parker, Derrick Rose, and one or two others who are slipping my mind right now.

It's unusual for a team expected to go to the playoffs to lean on a rook for heavy minutes at the PG, I'm just wondering if they actually will lean on Jrue. I don't see a legit alternative, to be honest.

Alvin reply to Brian on Sep 11 at 19:48

deron williams should be another.

Nope, Utah was 41-41 that season, didn't make the playoffs.

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