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Basketball-Reference.com Projections

johnmagee on Sep 24 at 13:07

Interesting that their 'finely honed projection' and my ideas work out to the same thing - about 500 :)

Just out of curiosity where do they have the rest of the atlantic?

Toronto: 43.4
New York: 37
New Jersey: 36.2

Interestingly, Miami: 35.9

johnmagee reply to Brian on Sep 24 at 13:18

Miami is more hype than substance I think - but we'll see.

So 3rd place is the prediction based on their numbers - sort of what i thought would happen...but like i've said repeatedly, i'm not looking at W-l this year as a big concern as i am progression of players

Miami as a whole may be all hype but Wade is a hell of a lot of substance on his own. Him healthy almost guarantees that team wins more than 35 games no problem.

At this point no one or no statistical measure is suggesting the Sixers are better than a .500 team. And many are saying we are lottery bound with Miller and either an unproductive or again hurt Brand.

I'm not sure there's a reason a statistical measure should assume Brand is going to be either unproductive or again injured. To play devil's advocate for a minute, the Sixers are essentially replacing two starters from last season. Andre Miller and Willie Green for Elton Brand and Lou Williams. Brand needs to provide about 75% of the production he did in his last full season to better Miller's production last season (speaking of win shares here). In limited minutes, Lou has topped Willie every year he's been in the league in win shares.

I think it's a conservative estimate to say the Sixers will be back where they were last season, especially considering they've addressed their biggest weakness as a team, half-court offense.

Real and Speightacular reply to Brian on Sep 25 at 0:38
"I think it's a conservative estimate to say the Sixers will be back where they were last season, especially considering they've addressed their biggest weakness as a team, half-court offense."

I'd have to agree -- if all the other teams stayed the same. Unfortunately, just about everyone else in the east got appreciably tougher to beat than they were last year.

The elite teams feast on the gimmie teams and take the majority of the tough games. Sixers not an elite team yet and can't expect to be this season. With fewer gimmie games and the tough games largely not any easier, I don't see the changes that overwhelming to make up the new degree of difficulty. Not yet. Not yet.

I'm not sure I agree that all the other teams got appreciably better.

Cleveland - Yes
Boston - Maybe, depends on health
Toronto - Debatable
Miami - No
Orlando - Debatable again
New Jersey - Debatable
Washington - Pretty much exactly the same as they were at this point last season (when they thought they'd have Arenas), with a new coach.
Knicks - Equally pitiful
Charlotte - Probably worse
Chicago - Worse
Detroit - Your guess is as good as mine
Hawks - A touch better, but Crawford is not a good player
Milwaukee - Probably worse this year
Indiana - Probably worse

Have any of these teams improved enough to leapfrog the Sixers? Toronto, New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Indiana, Washington? Maybe Toronto, depending on whether defense matters at all. No one else, IMO. There weren't really any earth-shattering improvements in the East, outside of Cleveland, potentially.

One of those statistical attempts where the numbers lack the precision to be very accurate. Sure if all of the variable even out it might be a decent prediction.

But given all of the variables they are dealing with it seems like they should say something like:

38.7 wins +/- 5 wins within 80% probability

Its sort of like saying I estimate there are 38,759 beans in a jar, +/- 5,000.

Completely agree. Everyone is sort of scrunched together as well when, no one w/ fewer than 33 wins in the East?

I think the minute distribution has a lot to do with it, assuming starters only play 60% of the minutes seriously hurts the estimations for teams w/ guys like LeBron who play way more than that.

I just read Tom Moore report this quote from Jordan about Lou:

"We want him to attack. We want Lou to be Lou. We're not going to walk the ball up with him. We're going to give him every opportunity to be a 38-minute-a-game player."

johnmagee reply to Brian on Sep 24 at 19:23

Intersting that they would just flat assume starters only play 60% of the minutes - that's a flawed methodology when there's evidence to the contrary (strong evidnece) over more than one season for a guy like Lebron (or Iguodala)

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