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Hollinger Player Projections are Out

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Charles Shackleford's Top Hat on Oct 5 at 15:40
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Is the game tomorrow televised?

CSTH

I'm not sure. Someone local may be able to answer, I'm pretty sure Time Warner won't be televising on League Pass, the bastards.

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Real and Speightacular on Oct 5 at 15:44
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Geez, even I would hesitate to plop mo s8y above Aldridge but I hope he gets consistent PT this year to keep developing.

See the thing with using an "expert" as your shield in arguments is that you're kinda stuck sticking by him no matter what they say in the future. And this one says Greenie is gonna be appreciably less bad than Jrue this season. So there you have it. I'm so not going to look up his *cough*wild guess*cough* projection for TL. It just doesn't matter.

I remain hopeful that by season's end the rankings between those two will have flipped.

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Real and Speightacular reply to Real and Speightacular on Oct 5 at 15:48
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Whoop--realizing now the rook rankings are the same for everybody. Nemmind ;-)

How is Derrick Rose down at 96? 37 spots behind Lou Williams? Or is he? When I clicked on the rankings, I didn't see anything like what you had said. For instance, Brand is at 98, not 95, Lou is at 61, not 59 - what happened, did he change them since you made this post?

You know what, he did make changes since I posted this, and it's all messed up right now as well. Iguodala is 46th on this page, and 45th on this page. He does have Rose way down there, though.

Seems like an error in pagination - numbering...a programming glitch more than a Hollinger glitch?

Yeah, something wonky is going on w/ the pages now. It was working properly earlier. I'm sure they'll figure it out.

Here's a quote for TK76 from TrueHoop. It's the Mavs' stat guy, Wayne Winston, talking about shooting a three when you're down by 2 at the end of the game:

But the math is solid there. If I've got the ball and I can take the shot with the horn going off, you should go for 3. You only win the overtime half the time. Suppose you have a 50% chance of hitting the two. So you make a shot half the time, and then you win in overtime half the time, you win the game just 25% of the time.

But if you shoot the 3, you've got at least a 30% chance. That's all you need to know.

Good memory Brian. I don't even remember what game that issue came up...

...Now that I think of it it was about scoring the quick 2 and giving the other chance enough time to beat you versus holding for the final shot.

I guess it comes down to how good your team/coach is at getting a quality look with the final shot. If you have a lousy 1/2 court team like the Sixers were last year, maybe it is better to take an easy score and leave time for the other team to beat you... although Iguodala did pretty well on his last second heaves last year- you can't coach athleticism and confidence.

But hopefully this year, with the fancy Ivy League offense and better scorers on the floor you can risk holding on for a last second shot.

It was the playoffs, the Thad Young shot, followed by the Hedo three for the loss on the other end of the floor.

Iguodala at the Lakers is the best case I can think of where the Sixers went three for the win. Against them, you had Ray Allen at home (I believe that was the circumstance) and you also had McGrady in Houston, when Sammy blocked his shot. Technically, you can consider Devin Harris' 3/4 court shot too :(

Harris's shot was a fluke (although I think they were headed for OT.)

But in a few other games Iguodala hit last iso scores only to be neaten by the other team at the buzzer.

Overall, I'd stick to Jem's philosophy that a lot of these games are lost through missed opportunities earlier in the game, and it never should come down to the end.

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The Greek reply to tk76 on Oct 5 at 19:47
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I was there for that Harris fluke shot, and no sadly they were not going to overtime.

You are right. They lost by 2, I had thought they lost by 3. Sorry to bring back the memory.

I like HOllinger but I think he is overwelmed w/ his rankings. I don't agee with them, overall.

1. AI9
2. Thad
3. Brand
4. Lou
55. Sam

I believe top 3 will be all near allstar level. Time will tell.

Speights and Young over Iguodala certainly does seem counterintuitive. I can understand Speights in a per-minute sense, at least, but Thad? Does he foresee Thad's rebound rate picking way up?

Not really, it looks like shooting percentages and minor improvements in the other areas. Here are his projections for Thad (along w/ career numbers)

SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2007-08 .539 .738 15.7 8.0 1.5 57.0 8.8 9.7 16.2 11.9 16.54
2008-09 .495 .735 17.8 5.9 1.3 54.9 6.9 9.5 18.8 8.8 15.40
2009-10 (projected) .522 .756 20.5 6.0 1.5 57.1 7.3 8.5 20.3 9.0 18.07

Not sure why his FG% and Reb rate goes up on the wing. Maybe increased eFG%...

Looking at those projections, I think they're extremely optimistic. +2.7 FG% with a bump in usage% and a move away from the hoop. I can see the bump in TS% and eFG, but not sure the FG% will sustain his level from last season, let alone increase. I could see the PER jump, but as you said, it would have to come from an increase in the rebound rate to the level from his rookie year. Still can't explain the drop last year.

Per Thad he spent more time Boxing out. It may be that he can go for more boards at SF- at least on defense.

I also think he would get a ton more O-Boards, but for him leaking out for the break (which he is supposed to do.)

As for shooting %, if he becomes a better 3pt weapon his overall FG% will go down. Again, not a bad thing.


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