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Make A Move?

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JohnMagee on Nov 10 at 12:21
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Um...I'm going to say no, emphatically, for a variety of resons

1. giving up on thad WAY too early
2. Joe Johnson is too close to 30 for my liking to sign to a long term deal
3. McGrady on the floor screws the development of players who matter to the sixers
long term.
4. I truly completely and totally HATE tracy mcgrady and would root for him to suffer another injury.

I'd look to trade Thad for a scoring and/or shooting 2 guard(young). I think we are seeing why the Iggy/Thad combo at the 2/3 positions was not occurring last year. Golden state has a couple players of interest. Seems like Thad is starting to play more 4 again. At his size that doesn't work in todays NBA.
No interest in McGrady.

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JohnMagee reply to sfw on Nov 10 at 12:30
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Yeah - to trade with GSW you have to take back S-Jax

I'd rather keep Sam

Eh, people were saying Thad/Iguodala 2/3 wouldn't work because Iguodala's jumper wasn't strong enough to play the two. His jumper has been fine this season, it's Thad's defense and some other things I'll get into after the Nets game if they don't improve that's killing them right now.

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 12:33
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Thad just seems freaking lost, everyone was worried about Iguodala adjusting to the two, no one seemed concerned about Thad adjusting to the three instead of the four, my feelings are much like Andre last year, he needs a lot more time to adjust than 7 games especially with his 3rd coach in 3 seasons.

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Sean reply to JohnMagee on Nov 10 at 16:12
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I agree with you. Thad needs time. He is having a rough go of it but he will get it going, because the type of shots he is missing are shots that have gone down for him in the past. The defense is the most concerning, but he is a work-in-progress anyway.

No way on this trade.

Thad is killing us this year. I believe atleast 2 losses are on Thad completely. He can't shoot, dribble or defend. Not so sure anyone would want him as an asset right now! But, hopefully and probably, he will turn it around.

Yeah, just like the Sixers shouldn't give up on, I doubt he's lost his value around the league.

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 12:53
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I don't think Joe Johnson is that 'valuable' a commodity that you give up Thad just for a chance to get him (and get rid of sam and willie)

And who knows - there may be some solid 2011 free agents and sam/willie gain value

Johnson was an example. And clearing Sam and Willie off the books this summer would lead to more cap space than the following summer when you have to extend Thad and you have the yearly increases for Iguodala, Brand and Lou.

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 13:06
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Well if Johnson is just an example, who else could we sign that offseason that's valuable enough to give up Thad for?

Hmmn, let's take a look:

Looks like Manu is the only other guy, and he's kind of getting up there in years. Good point.

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 13:16
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Manu had a great game last night but yeah, don't go spending money on him. Big health issues that are only going to get worse. And Johnson... look, I'm getting more and more pessimistic about Thad, odds are decent he'll never be as good as JJ, but there's still that chance he'll put it all together and be rookie Thad again, but with developed skills.

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JohnMagee reply to Tray on Nov 10 at 13:19
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7 games into the season and you're ready to write off Thad huh?

You'd think people would learn when they were ready to write of Iguodala 7 games into last season

Or after his first year, second year, third year, or when they felt his contract extension was 'too big'

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Tray reply to JohnMagee on Nov 10 at 13:22
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Where did I write him off? I'm just not that optimistic. He wasn't so good last year either.

There's the chance, but are you better with JJ at the 2 and Iguodala at the 3 or Iguodala at the 2 and rookie Thad w/ developed skills at the 3? That's a tough question to answer.

I have a feeling someone is going to overpay for JJ, though, so I doubt the Sixers could get them with the cash they'd have available. Teams are going to lose out on Bosh/LeBron/Wade leaving more money for guys like Boozer/JJ/Manu.

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 13:25
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Brian

I agree completely - there's just too many teams in the LBJ/Wade/Bosh sweepstakes (and I think only two of them at most leave teams, Wade is staying in Miami I bet and wouldn't be surprised to see Bosh lured there) that when they miss their GM's are going to panic and over pay...watch the hawks sixth man get over paid because GM's always forget the 'contract year drive' when a guy out performs his averages.

The whole 'you have cap room you HAVE to spend it argument is a bad one to me.

Well, in some cases it's use it or lose it. that was the case with the Sixers last summer. It all would've disappeared with nothing to show for it if they'd waited, because of the Iguodala/Williams extensions.

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 13:31
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So - did they really think Brand would help or was he the only guy they could get before 'losing' the money...I really have to wonder now how much long term tought went into that signing...at this point it might have been better NOT to use it as he kind of seems on the wrong side of his caree path right now.

It's still a bad decision just to use it because you have it - lose it or not...

Brand was the best available FA, at a position of need. You, me, every talking head EVERYONE was overjoyed that they were lucky enough to get him. I don't think this was a use it or lose it situation. I think this was an "I can't believe we lucked into this, we're going to contend this year!" type of signing.

Still too early to call it a bad deal, though it seems like Jordan is determined to alienate Brand and minimize his effect on the team. Which is wonderful.

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Tray reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 13:27
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Oh, rookie Thad with developed skills over JJ any day. He had a really great floor game back then. Besides which, who's to say that we would land JJ with that cap space?

No one. In fact, odds would be against it, I said that above.

I tend to agree with you about Thad, though. Johnson's numbers haven't been great over the past couple years, he's just been an above average shooter from three. But I do like his game.

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JohnMagee on Nov 10 at 13:46
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Not for nothing, but one writer thinks the the Golden State Warriors are about to explode and that S Jax is just a warning tremor?

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2009/11/10/a-brief-respite-last-night-but-the-warriors-volcano-is-still-ready-to-blow/

Smart GM's will take advantage if possible.

Sixers won't

Believe me, I am in panic mode as well, but...

We have to give Thad a year to figure it out and i think he will. He is a baby, we need to remember that. I am already in the "hope they lose" and win the lottery mode. The problem is Brand is officially a bust and with him eating up so much cap room for the next 3 years, all you can do is play the young guys and wait.

also, i am officially on the start Jrue bandwagon. And Kapono needs more time. Thad, Lou and Iggy are redundant. Start Jrue and get Kapono some minutes with Iggy.

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JohnMagee reply to CSTH on Nov 10 at 13:52
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Thad Lou and Iguodala are redundant in what way?

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CSTH reply to JohnMagee on Nov 10 at 16:02
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for me, they all want to put the ball on the floor, first and foremost. When all of your permieter players want to penetrate, then you end up with a clogged lane and a sagging defense. I though Lou would be an improvement over Miller with his willingness to hoist threes and hit an occasional one, but Thad's regression from the perimeter has really hurt.

csth

To me, they're all similar in that none of them can really shoot from the perimeter. It's not that they're hesitant to, it's that they aren't very effective. The hope was that Thad would continue his improvement (which he hasn't, he's regressed, but it's early). But actually, it's Iguodala who has improved at this point. Lou...well, I guess we shouldn't flip out about one bad offensive game, but he needs to be this good on offense to make up for how bad he is on defense. Last night, with Jrue at the point, you could really see what a difference a PG can make. Especially with this idiotic scheme the Sixers are determined to run.

No way I do a Sam/Thad deal. Sam will be an expiring next year, so dealing now just saves you 1 year. And they would still be at 52M (including #1 pick) so still sitting at the MLE. I guess the deal makes sense if you see Thad as a bust. But I still expect Thad to be a very good NBA player sooner rather than later.

I'd consider parting with Thad or Speights if it meant unloading Brand, because that could really free up the team's financial future. Another 4 years under Brand's immense contract puts a cloud over them.

Maybe:
Thad/Brand/Sam
for
TMac and 6M filler

That would put them at 34M, and in the running for a true front line FA (lets say Bosh or JJ+another good player. Imagine if the re-united JJ+Amare along side Iguodala, Speighs and Holiday. that would be a potent line-up (if not a great rebounding one.)

If you are going to blow it up, why not go big?

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JohnMagee reply to tk76 on Nov 10 at 14:03
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I think any 'big name' player that doesn't take a max deal from their current team is going to take into account roster make up and belief that the team can win a title...or contend for a title, for that contract, which means taking into account not just cap space but who is on the roster, how they look going forward, front office and coaching staff...

Well I think a core of Speights/Iguodala/Williams/Holiday/Kapono/Smith compares favorably with most of the teams that have gutted their rosters to get into the 2010 race.

I doubt Lebron or Dwade would come here for other reasons, and the Sixers lack of shooters would not fit around them. But that young core would fit nicely alongside an athletic big or top shooter.

How would that Sixer core (sans Brand/Young/Sam) compare to what NJ, NY or Detroit has to offer?

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JohnMagee reply to tk76 on Nov 10 at 14:12
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I think you're ignoring a few candidates (Dallas/Chicago)

I think Wade stays in Miami

I think LBJ goes to Chicago

And I think Bosh goes to Chicago or Miami

I think Phoenix finds new ownership and keeps amare cause amare will primarily be about the money.

I can see that happening. Either way it would leave the Sixers in a good spot. There are always good moves to be made if you have money and young talent. But you need the right hand at the wheel or else you end up signing Brand/Iguodala/Williams for 185M.

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JohnMagee reply to tk76 on Nov 10 at 14:18
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Well the Iguodala and Williams contracts are fine - the brand contract might be a problem, and might not be, can't tell yet for sure.

I also think the knicks end up over paying for one or both Joe Johnson and Boozer

Iguodala will be overpaid during the last 3 years of his deal, but he is a fine player. No big deal.

Lou was a reasonable contract at the time. He may under or over perform. To early to tell. Certainly cheap for a starting PG and the going rate for a 6th man.

Brand's deal never made sense (my position from day 1.) The team was not ready to contend, and the back end of his deal (+ Iguodala's) was always a ticking bomb ready to hamstring the franchise. No reason to put pressure on an otherwise young, financially free team to win right awy or be stuck with 30-34M in contracts for 2 good but not superstr players.

The fact that his early years look to be a waste just made a bad signing a horrible one.

Iguodala will be overpaid during the last 3 years of his deal, but he is a fine player. No big deal.

Not sure about that. He'll turn 28, 29 and 30 and earn $13.5, $14.7 and $15.9 in each season. He shouldn't hit the downside of his career by then. In fact, the final season is a player option and I'd put money on him opting out.

If you are going to make a risky big signing to a young team let it be for a young player (like Iguodala, Lou, Bosh...) Don't start guaranteeing 15/16/18M to a guy who will be 32-34 years old.

I have them at $46M + a first-rounder if they send Sam, Green and Thad out without taking money back.

I could be off. i'm using hoopshype 9not always the best but quick)

65M
-16M (Brand)
-12M(Sam)
-3M(Thad)
---------
34M

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JohnMagee reply to tk76 on Nov 10 at 14:50
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http://www.storytellerscontracts.com/

They redid the site - but much more trustworthy to me

Better, but still takes too long for the spreadsheets to open. I'm just lazy.

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JohnMagee reply to tk76 on Nov 10 at 15:02
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I'd start looking at your computer, takes no time on my computer to load

Hm....

give me a few mins. Contract data is needed on phillyarena.

forgive the ugliness. Right now it's just a duplication of the data storytellers has it. Eventually I'll include stuff like expected costs of draft picks, guaranteed costs for the year as well as "lowest possible" costs (i.e. if the team declines all options). Just bare bones right now. Will also cross-reference storytellers data with other sources (although I tend to find storytellers to be the most accurate).

http://nba.phillyarena.com/salary/

Good idea.

Maybe list whether a team will have MLE or above in terms of projected cap space for next year.

Yeah, that's right. You had 52M if the trade proposed n this post went through. That's what I was responding to.

Brand - $16M
Iguodala - $12M
Kapono - $6M
Lou - $5M
Speights - $1.7M
Smith - $2.1M
Jrue - $1.6M
Ivey - $1M

Equals $46 and change, not $52.

Sorry... I left out Green- missed you had thrown him in.

65M
-12M Sam
-3M Young
-4M green (I missed he was included)
------
46M

My 52M left out Green and added a 1st round salary... so MLE money.

Yeah, depends on where the cap comes in.

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 14:58
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No reason to think the cap won't stay flat or possibly go down again - econnomy still sucks

Here's my idea for a thread (I'd put it at phillyarena, but no one would respond :)

We're only 7 games in, but there are some clear trends. For each of these points are we:

A. jumping the gun in our (over)reaction and just need more time
B. possible concern but could worrk itself out with time
C. Seen enough to ID a major issue

Here are the issues:

1. 3 pt and Pick&Roll defense.
2. D Rebounding
3. Strange line-ups/substitution patterns
4. Strange post game coaching statements (if a 3pt shooter gets that hot there is nothing you can do...)
5. Brand looks like a shell.
6. Brand not being used correctly.
7. Thad looks lost on offense.
8. thad looks lost on defense and rebounding.


Then on the flip side are we too high or low on:
1. Speight as a scorer
2. Lou as a starter
3. jrue as a bust/stud/underused?

I'll put it up now. Good conversation piece for the off day.

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 15:12
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I already did a 'jump to conclusion' post on jordans blog about starting Mo over Sam

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JohnMagee reply to Brian on Nov 10 at 15:15
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Actually - if you think about it - it's multiple conversation pieces :)

Thx. Feel free to change/improve the general idea.

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JohnMagee on Nov 10 at 15:17
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yungsmoove21

On the bus heading to jersey to get things back on track .... We need this win against a hungry new jersey team

REcent twit from Thad - very tempted to point out that if he stopped sucking they'd probably have no problem - but probably not constructive

Way to show self control.

Call me crazy, but I kind of like S-Jax. The guy can defend, handle the ball, and shoot. There might be questions about his character, but I'd like to see him in a different environment.

ESPN trade machine let me send Thad and Brand over for SJax, Turiaf, and Azubuike. Maybe throw in a second round pick or something? Hmm?

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JohnMagee reply to raroNJ on Nov 10 at 15:28
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Yeah - a different environment - like the pacers?

I'm not a fan of Jackson's game, but even if I was, I couldn't get past that contract. It's just way too long, two years longer than Sam's.

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sfw reply to raroNJ on Nov 10 at 15:47
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I'd do it immediately!

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raro reply to sfw on Nov 10 at 21:29
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One of my favorite non-76ers basketball memories is Golden State's upset of Dallas in the 2007 playoffs. SJax was a big part of that. Sure he's a loon, but when the guy is on track he's a great talent. Remember what he did to Nowitzki? Think about what he could do against Pierce and Lebron? We would have two elite defenders on the wing. Sure his contract runs too long, but it's equivalent to Brand's in length and about half in dollars and cents. Not to mention the fact that a trade like the one I proposed would do wonders for the bench...

The more I talk about it, the more I like it!

No way do I include thad in a deal to get out from under a contract. No way. Kid's 21. A 7 game struggle isn't entirely unexpected. We just had unrealistic expectations for him at this point.

If he were a junior in college people would be talking about how much potential he has once he hits his prime. Instead, because he's playing 35 mpg in the NBA, people talk about how he can never improve.

If this team was in a win-now mode, and you were talking about trading him FOR a player like Joe Johnson RIGHT NOW (not trading him for the POSSIBILITY of getting Joe Johnson), you think about it. But that's not the presented scenario.

I agree, but I don't think they'd laugh at it and say no. Not when they're drawing 10K people/game. Honestly, if this was proposed, I think it'd have a shot at going through, and they'd be more likely to sign no one in the summer to keep costs down.

I could honestly see Philadelphia without the Sixers.

The Las Vegas 76'ers... or maybe you could suggest a more fitting name.

I guess that would work well for one blogger I know.

Christ, I have no idea what I'd do if they became the Vegas Cameltoes or something.

Well they would be playing in the desert 9or at the Sands)..

Think of all of the great promotions!

I can see the billboards... 1st 100 fans get free...

Vasectomy reversals?

Brian-

I'd take Joe Johnson over Thad if it came down to it. Is Thad going to be a guy that can take over a game on his own? I don't see that in his future, but Joe Johnson certainly can do that. He is also a guy that can run the point if needed, which he has done in Atlanta before.

Johnson gets you to the playoffs and is a short-term success. Thad is a nice player, but what kind of player is he going to be and can the Sixers succeed with what he is going to be?

I'd take the risk if it were there.

Thad for Johnson is one thing, Thad for a long-shot chance at signing Johnson for too much money? That's another thing entirely. Where this team is at right now, I'm not sure I even do it straight up, Johnson won't be nearly as effective 2 or 3 years down the road when the core of this team matures.

JJ is 28, has size, can shoot and is a smart player. Unless the injury bug strikes he should be very good for another 3-4 years.

28 huh? I thought he was older for some reason, 30 now. That changes things.


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