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Win #24

If the Sixers can't land a franchise player in the draft...

Does Jrue's improved shooting mean that a PG/SF combo of Jrue/Iguodala can eventually be a key part of a contending team?

Yes... if:

1. Jrue continues to shoot like this and does not become the Sixers next one year wonder like Thad and Spieghts.)

2. The Sixers find an excellent SG I'm not saying a superstar- not an all around star like JJ. But someone with length who can flat out shoot and knows how to find opening off of teammates penetration. Like Xavier Henry's ceiling (which he probably will not reach.)

3. Iguodala gets the Josh Smith memo about shot selection. Never shoot more than 2 3's in a game unless you make the first 2. No jumpers beyond 17 feet.

4. Somehow find a pick and roll big. Maybe Speights can wake up and become Amare... did not think so :(

5. Keep a deterent at C (resign Sam?)

I'll agree with most of this. I think #4 has more to do with the system than the personnel right now. Speights and Brand can both play that game, it's just not a big enough part of the weave and heave.

If you're ranking the needs, I think the SG is the biggest need on offense, but we desperately need a defensive big even for next season to come off the bench and then to take over for Sam when he leaves, or to eventually take the starting spot from Sam if we bring him back on an MLE-level deal when this one expires.

Wish we had De'Andre Jordan. Which is why you don't trade away your 2nd round pick every year.

Instead we traded away this year's for Willie Green's replacement.

What are the odds the Sixers bring Willie back when this contract expires? I'm saying 75% they re-sign him.

Brian,

Quick question; have you checked out Collison's assist numbers? They are insane. I am guessing they are so high because of the type of offense they run and that got me wondering about Jrue's assist numbers and if they are depressed because he is forced to do a dribble hand off as soon as the ball crosses half court. In a real offense, what can we expect from him.

what numbers do you expect from Jrue next year. I am liking his rebound totals. 17 points, 10 assists, 6 boards? Am i high or can that be done night in and night out by a 20 year old.

One more thing. I was checking out Jeff Green, and Thad is not that far off from him. I can't believe we are not getting a long look at Thad at the 3. It's driving me crazy that big Ed has not dictated this to EFJ.

One more thing, this draft looks weak, say we pick 7th, who do you take? Do you take a flyer on one of these raw centers because clearly Jason Smith and Speights are not the answers. I am really down on Speights, i remember reading about him before the draft and one scout said he was a dog, i was so happy last year but after seeing him make no progress and remain oblivious to the holes in his game, that guy might be right.

Hey, good questions.

1. Jrue's assist numbers are definitely hurt by the offense. Check out how rarely the "point" initiates offense. How few pick & rolls they use. It's all this BS perimeter passing/dribble handoffs, with very rare backdoor cuts. Put him in a system like NO's and his assist numbers would be higher. His turnover numbers would probably be higher as well, though.

2. Jrue's numbers next year? Assuming they have a halfway decent coach, I'm going to say something like 13 points, 4 boards, 8 assists. Your numbers are probably more like his peak numbers, maybe a tick up from there, I don't think he gets there next year.

3. There are so many things I can't believe about this team, Thad at the three is just one on the LONG list.

4. This is a philosophical question. Player A is a decent player, pretty far along his development curve right now, pretty likely to reach his full potential, and can help almost immediately after being drafted, but doesn't have much of a chance of being a star in the league. Player B is young, raw, has a ton of development left to do, but if he puts it all together he could easily be a star. Which player do you choose? Where the Sixers are right now, I'd rather swing for the fences, but I know a lot of people who would go the other way.

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JohnEMagee reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 11:45
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. This is a philosophical question. Player A is a decent player, pretty far along his development curve right now, pretty likely to reach his full potential, and can help almost immediately after being drafted, but doesn't have much of a chance of being a star in the league. Player B is young, raw, has a ton of development left to do, but if he puts it all together he could easily be a star. Which player do you choose? Where the Sixers are right now, I'd rather swing for the fences, but I know a lot of people who would go the other way.

Part of it is also a 'research' questoin...it's a common tenet that younger players with less college have more 'upside' into their game but I can't find anywhere that the research has been done...it's on my list to look into over the off season if i can, but building the methodology properly could be a pain in the arse

Yeah, I'm not really talking about age so much, but that does factor into it. A good example from this year's draft would be Aldrich vs. Hassan Whiteside. Aldrich has a developed offensive game, he could probably step in and play significant minutes next season at the pro level, but how much better is he really going to get? He's kind of limited athletically. What's his ceiling? Whiteside is an athletic freak whose defense is ahead of his offense. If he puts it all together, you're talking about a complete stud.

Given the choice between the two, I'd take Whiteside. Kinda the Jrue vs. Lawson question all over again.

To me, Monroe falls into the same category as Aldrich, though I think his ceiling is higher.

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JohnEMagee reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 11:56
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Well that's part of it no doubt but so is the 'experience' factor...age was the word i used - aldrich has more years at 'higher comp' - he's a junior, monroe a sophomore and whiteside a freshamn.

The common maxim has always been that the younger players have more 'upside' because their games are less mature after less college...and I've looked around and seen no research to indicate if this is true...maybe it's a sample size thing when you consider you probably have to factor in position played and draft position to really do fair comparisons.

So you categorized 3 players, you seem to prefer white side who (coincidentally or not) has the least college experience ;)

One caveat, and this is the part that's nearly impossible to calculate. If the guy w/ the higher upside is very unlikely to reach it, then screw that and take the guy who's more likely to reach his potential, even if the potential is lower.

Wouldn't say that's near impossible. I would argue that's the most crucial part of drafting.

That is the crucial part, and it's the part that so many teams fail on. That's why I said it was nearly impossible.

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deepsixersuede reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:01
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Two things I read about Whiteside that scare me. He is not a bright kid [Spieghts?] and he isn!t real young [22 I believe].

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JohnEMagee reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:13
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I think the fact that so many teams fail doesn't mean it's impossible , isntead of focusing on failure I'd look more at teams that have consistent success in the draft - though there aren't as many - it's not impossible.

For me - the 'mental make up / work ethic' thing is always the 'last thing' that teams seem to consider in the draft and to me it's that factor that is most important in achieving the upside...mareese speights is a perfect example...tons of potential but lots of questions on his upside - worth a pick at #16 even though talent wise he might have gone higher - you don't expect as much from the guy at 16 - but then again, as fans after what he did his first year we expected more but those pesky 'make up' issues come into count.

The NBA draft process (to me) has a lot of holes in it and the mental make up / work ethic analysis is the biggest problem i've seen from what little i know

The problem with Whiteside to me is I'm beginning to question the probability of him reaching that upside.

And when you factor in post defense Aldrich may be the better defender. Again, Whiteside may have more defensive potential, but Aldrich's understanding of team defense is so far beyond Whiteside's it's not even funny (and really beyond pretty much any player in the draft).

It's also worth noting that Aldrich is actually only about 8 months older than Whiteside. Whiteside's actually about to turn 21. He missed a year (IIRC) due to academic ineligibility, and it's beginning to look like he's going to pretty much be forced to enter the draft this year because of eligibility.

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JohnEMagee reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 11:59
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then maybe experience is the term i should have used instead of age? There's more 'evolution' to the game the more years they play college?

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JohnEMagee reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 12:00
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OH yeah and success rate as well...are picks more likely to succeed with more college experience...?

I think you're going to run into a sample size problem there, in both directions. Everyone used to play 4 seasons, now the best players (or maybe the players with the most upside) are pretty much guaranteed to be one and done.

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JohnEMagee reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:14
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Yeah, that's what i'm tinking, especially since to do it right you'd want to match up position by position and 'draft slot' as well - maybe 'groupoing' though like top 5, second 5, etc...

something if i have a LOT of time to look at this summer i will :)

Yeah, that's the caveat I mentioned above. How is Aldrich's footspeed? Having a good understanding of team defense, and being able to play it are two different things.

I'd definitely have to investigate the red flags on Whiteside before making the pick, this was just an example to illustrate my point.

underrated. he plays the pick and roll very well. he may have trouble against perimeter, face-up big men, but I dont' worry about his footspeed defending the pick and roll.

Aldrich is the type of pick I would be neither extremely pissed or extremely happy if we made (assuming it's not a top-7 pick).

I saw him play twice early in the season, seemed slow to me, but that may be a racial thing. I'll try to catch one of their games in the tourney.

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deepsixersuede reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 12:18
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Is he ever top 5 in the league? If so isn!t he a good pick?

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JohnEMagee reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 12:27
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Have you seen anything more detailed on adlrich and conditioning...the one thing i noticed in games is that he seems to get 'winded' fast

Hard to tell. Bill Self has extremely quick and short rotations. It is a concern I have.

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deepsixersuede reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 12:08
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Who would you pick out of Whiteside and Alabi?

Honestly, I haven't seen enough florida state to be able to comment with enough certainty as I would want. I have to watch him more after the season is over. I can say I'd probably take Udoh over Whiteside at this time.

Considering we don't have a true star/superstar player, i think the obvious choice has to be reaching for the fences. And based on our recent draft picks i think DiLeo understands it better than anyone (they are all high risk/reward players). I think the D.R.A.F.T initiative found out that drafting younger players is a safer bet of landing a superstar (and getting a complete bust as well :D). Young hard working kids with the appropriate mindset are probably what we should be looking for, which is why my top 5 choices are:
1. Wall
2. Favors
3. Cousins
4. Whiteside
5. Monroe/Henry

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JohnEMagee reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 13:30
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Hmm...don't know D.R.A.F.T Initiative - should look into that - thanks.

I trust dileo - and me - i'm a firm believer in the BPA draft philosophy myself...in general and especially with this roster.

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deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 11:58
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If we are picking 7 to 10 the 7! Lithuanian kid could be worth a pick. He has more upside than Monroe and if we get a coach with a clue we could have a starting lineup of 6!11", 7!, 6!8",6!6",6!4" ; bring Elton off the bench as our defensive big with Marreese and have a stretch 4 that blocks shots and has a small forward type game. He and Jrue can hit the 3!s and hopefully we rebound well enough with our backcourt of Iggy and Jrue.

suede,

i like your thinking on that one. Iggy could play 2 if you had a 7 foot stretch 4 that bombs threes. All season i wondered why we didn't see Smith and Sammy on the floor at the same time for that exact reason. I guess having absolutely no-post presence is a mojor downer, though

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deepsixersuede reply to CSTH on Mar 18 at 12:16
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Iggy and Thad would supply that in that lineup, which could play to their stengths.

There's also a decent chance Jrue develops a post up game. He's going to have a size advantage on a number of PGs in the league, and with AI9 at the two, teams won't have the luxury of switching that defensive matchup. Something to consider.

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deepsixersuede reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 12:23
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We have to start putting the pieces together and if Iggy and Thad and Jrue play inside and our 4 plays like Kukoc offensively it would be interesting to say the least.

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apfan reply to CSTH on Mar 18 at 13:42
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I've seen Motiejunas playing several times this year. He's definitely got a huge potential and I like him a lot, although he is still a very soft and still needs to work hard to be a star, if he will ever become one. I would love to see the sixers picking him.

I generally think the soft label gets thrown around too much, but this is one where I don't disagree. His defensive rebounding is epically poor, to the point where even if he adds considerable lower body strength, I don't think it'll ever be more than below average. He is young, but it's a huge problem in his game.

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deepsixersuede reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 13:51
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Is there any way he plays the 3 in the league? And do you see Monroe guarding today!s p.f.!s or playing more of a 5?

I'm not sure I see the ballhandling for a 3. maybe he develops it.

I see Monroe more as a 5, which is where his lack of elevation becomes a bit of a concern as he probably doesn't project to be a bigtime shotblocker. But his greatest struggle defensively right now is on the perimeter, particularly man-man.

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deepsixersuede reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 14:12
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Can what Monroe give you offensively from the high post ever be more of a positive than what you lose from him on the other end? My reasoning is the Lithuanian, to me, gives me the impression of possibly being a bigtime scorer which could offset his weak rebounding. But I don!t know if Monroe ever grows that much offensively. And I was discussing K.Love on recliner G.M. with Dannie, and I would love him here because he is such an intelligent player and Monroe would also help in that aspect.

"The Lithuanian" has a name.

I would take Monroe before I would take Motiejunas, pretty easily. But that's as much a condemnation I have on Motiejunas as it is a support of Monroe.

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JohnEMagee reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 14:35
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Does anyone blieve the perception that the sixers are 'anti euro' in the top 15/20 or so - I know there's the dirk story - but is te lack of 'euro drafting' because of lack of suitable picks at the location - or does anyone believe the sixers have an anti euro bias?

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JohnEMagee reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 13:41
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They have a graph where they graph 'success rate' as a function of years in league and EWA...what's interesting is you can compare years...and when you look at freshman versus sophmores - the curve is about the same but the EWA is higher at each point (on average) for sophmores over freshman.

Kind of data david stern could use to convince teams of a 20 year old age limit...maybe the 'ideal' is 2 years in college :)

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JohnEMagee reply to JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 13:46
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And if I think about it a bit, intuitively it makes sense, that extra sophmore year in college gives a kid a bit more time with organized coaching but also can demonstrate a kind of work ethic dedication to improvement BEFORE he's drafted....what does he improve on between his freshman and sophmore year...without at the same time reaching that 'peak' level a jr/senior might

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deepsixersuede reply to Xsago on Mar 18 at 13:48
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My concern with going young again is the need to probably move Iggy over the summer if we do so. A Whiteside type pick is probably 3 years away from contributing whereas a Aldrich, Monroe or even the Luthuanian can contribute sooner. Alabi, from what I!ve read on the draft sights, seems to have less question marks than Whiteside and a bigger frame to grow into. He also, the last 2 times I saw him, shows a decent midrange jumper.

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JohnEMagee reply to deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 13:55
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whereas a Aldrich, Monroe or even the Luthuanian can contribute sooner.

So what? Are the sixers that close that a year or two of development makes a difference - do you draft the 'help now' guy versus 'much better later' because you have Andre Iguodala?

Cause Brand is pretty much done and Sam is probably gone...at which point the sixers are a mess and not even close to contending in a yar or so.

I don't think a guy who takes an extra year to develop matters when your team is as fracked up as the sixers roster.

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deepsixersuede reply to JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 14:02
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If the organization has a plan, agreed. But my point is clear house than except for the youngins and star over. I don!t agree with that strategy but I am in the minority.

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JohnEMagee reply to deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 14:23
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Well that's why we all have different opinions. I don't think the guys you prefer because of the more 'polished' ability will make a major difference to this team, no matter who the roster is. I wrote something rather long about it somehwere else but the upshot is that I see this roster as currently constructed AT BEST as a 500 team that loses more often than they win in the first round of playoffs...if I'm building a franchise, look at a roster and say '500 at best' - i have to come up with a new plan...

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deepsixersuede reply to JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 14:38
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I feel Holliday has a chance to be an A.Miller level p.g., Iggy is a top 5 s.f., and Sam, in spite of his flaws is basically what Whiteside, Aldrich and even Oden probably have as upside. [top 3 in blocks and rebounds]. Thad may be a quality 3 if he ever gets the chance. Brand, to me, should be used off the bench to play with Marreese for 28 minutes a night.I think 2 more drafts of the level of last years allows this team to be a contender if A]the right players are brought in B] a good coach is brought in.

This group was a 500 team, in my opinion, without a quality coach and I would like to see if that coach could make a difference before they go the other route.

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JohnEMagee reply to deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 14:42
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I think Holiday has more upside than Miller actually - he will be better than miller - and he's better defensively possibly already - miller was a defensive sieve.

Oden - when healthy - has more offense than sam - sam has no offense - sam also has little to no motivation that i've seen in the past - for the entirety of his career - the pas couple months are nice - but they don't offset the rest of his career and lack of seeming committment to basketball.

Brand is an anchor around the team (albatross was good luck until some dang fool went and killed him)...

As for the bench guys - none of them play defense - none of them seem that interested in playing defense - and it's been a REALLY disheartening year in the development of thadeeus young cause his defense seems to have taken a massive step back.

I admire your optimism...i don't see it and as much as I love iguodala - top 5 SF (which is a position that has guys like LEbron and Carmelo assigned to it) might be overly optimistic?

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deepsixersuede reply to JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 14:49
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I just worry that it might be 10 bad years to get to the top if they blow it up. Getting lucky, draft wise, once every 3 years is probably the average and this organization has never practiced patience.

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JohnEMagee reply to deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 14:54
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If they don't blow it up - with luxury tax concerns and bad contracts - i think it'll be 10 mediocre years :)

Even this year, which has clearly been a down year for Iguodala, top five SF isn't a stretch.

Guys in the conversation:

LeBron
Carmelo
Durant
Gerald Wallace
Paul Pierce

Maybe Granger and Rudy Gay?

I'd say he's in there for the #4 spot w/ Pierce and Wallace, clearly ahead of Gay and Granger.

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deepsixersuede reply to Brian on Mar 18 at 15:01
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Gay!s development this year is one of my main reasons for optimism with Thad; it seemed to click for him , all of a sudden.

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JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 14:27
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So none of these MMOD games this morning have any prosspects worth listening to yet :)

Udoh at 2:30 is really first one.

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JohnEMagee reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 14:33
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Hearing Villanova choke it away in the background is kind of nice though :)

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deepsixersuede reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 14:44
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Sorry about the name thing; Montiejunis intrigues me because it may give Thad/ Iggy a chance to succeed. I picked Nova in my final 4, even though I am a Temple fan more, I guess I jinxed them.

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JohnEMagee reply to deepsixersuede on Mar 18 at 14:46
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even though I am a Temple fan more, I guess I jinxed them.

Traitor, a thing like that NEVER would have happened in the 80s.

True Big 5 fans don't root for the mian line wussies

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deepsixersuede reply to JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 14:51
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Ya got me !!! But I did pick N.Dame to lose.

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deepsixersuede reply to Derek Bodner on Mar 18 at 14:44
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Sorry about the name thing; Montiejunis intrigues me because it may give Thad/ Iggy a chance to succeed. I picked Nova in my final 4, even though I am a Temple fan more, I guess I jinxed them.

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JohnEMagee on Mar 18 at 14:56
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Damn it - RMU losing players in OT - phooey


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