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Keep Stefanski Away From ESPN Today

Myleskong on Jul 15 at 13:50

I think you are much too hard on Thad. I believe the final few weeks of the 2009 season were more indicative of what kind of player he is than last season. I know his lateral quickness is not there yet. However, I believe with added experience and an established defensive philosophy for the team he will be a very productive and important player to this team. I feel as though going into the season knowing he's going to play a lot of 4 will help him because he'll prepare as such.

Forget about potential for a second. Based on what he's done in his first three seasons, the team has a decision to make right now. They can extend him prior to October 31st of this year. Would you do it?

rchap13 reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 14:01

Yea. After his first season, we projected him to be this amazing player but then he had a bad season under eddie f. Jordan now we down on him. I say extend him

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 14:18

No question. Extend him.
He has an innate ability to get his shot up and in in traffic around the rim. There are still alot of areas in which he needs to improve. He always shown the ability to score in the lane even when it's packed in. Last season he just missed a lot of those bunnies.
I blame this on a lack of focus. He state all the way back in early November he did not know what to do and was confused the Jordan systems. This was never again addressed in the media until exit interviews.
He's the type of player that should flourish with our 3 ball-dominant perimeter players.
I would work on moving Lou and give Thad the same contract. I believe he'll prove to be worth much more.

Maybe that's what Thad's value is on the open market, especially this summer, but that doesn't mean it's a wise move in terms of the cap/luxury tax.

I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment of his strengths/weaknesses. My issue on the offensive end is that for a guy who tends to play near the hoop, his free throw rate is very low. Meaning he's either going to need to shoot an obscenely high percentage on two-point attempts, or take (and make) a decent number of threes, at a decent percentage, to be an efficient scorer. Last season, his true shooting percentage was only 52.3%, which is too low for PF and borderline for an SF.

On the defensive side, he's completely lost and kind of stuck between the positions. I could maybe live with that if he was a decent rebounder (which he's not) or an efficient scorer (which he's not).

No way I'd commit to him for five year based on what we've seen to this point. That's how teams get buried under the cap.

Jason reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 14:45

If we signed him before October 31st it'd be under current CBA right? If so no way i'd want to give him any deal, odds are he'd be vastly overpaid. Much rather wait see how he progresses and Match whatever offer goes his way after the new CBA is in place.

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 14:52

I see your point. I don't really care to much for advanced statistics in basketball. There's no number that can really indicate how good a player is.

I think he's much better than the stats suggest because I've seen many games where he was key to winning. I can't quanify what I saw but if you look back at the comebacks that used to be very common for us, he was almost always on the floor with that unit as a key contributor. He has great footwork. Nice first step. And seemed to be a more willing distributor. Honestly, I think Andre kind of stunts Thad's development. Because it's clear that he defers to Iggy while Iggy doesn't seem to really look for him.

Travis Outlaw just got 5 years/$35M. $25M for Thad would be a steal. And a contract that would be very easy to move in the current economic climate of the NBA

Outlaw is grossly overpaid, but he does have a couple specialties that are in demand in the league: 3-point shooting and wing defense. I'm not sure there's such a demand for whirling dervish spins through the lane to get layups off without drawing contact.

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 15:29

lol @ whirling dervish spins through the lane to get layups off without drawing contact.

In fairness, the only player on the Sixers any good at drawing fouls is Lou. They all need to work on this.

Outlaw is so much older too. btw, 45% - 60% of the league is overpaid.

Iguodala did a better job getting to the line than Lou did last season (and Iguodala's numbers were down last year).

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 15:53

How are you measuring this? By possession or touch? Per 36 min? As a ratio to shots taken?

Just watching the games, it seems like Lou has a knack for drawing contact(and actually finishing as well). If Iggy was better it has to be marginally.

FTA/36 min: Iguodala 4.8, Lou 4.4
FTA/FGA: Iguodala .379, Lou .339

Iguodala had 30 and-one's, Lou had 27. But Iguodala played about 1,280 more minutes, so Lou was considerably better at getting these.

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 16:13

That makes sense. I knew Iggy could only be slightly better at drawing fouls. Considering he had the ball in his hands so much, I think Lou is naturally better. I you've identified that he was better at the and 1s.

I'm not really talking about advanced stats here, well I sort of am, but they're really simple. If Thad scores 15 points, but it takes him 15 shots to get those points, it's not really valuable. You need him to get the 15 points on maybe 10 shots or 12 shots. It's really hard to do that when you don't get to the line and you aren't a great three-point shooter.

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 15:50

Does a player's efficiency ever greatly differ from year to year?

Thad seemed really efficient early in his career just do his high percentage shots he took that Miller and Iguadala created for him.

I've never really perceived him as a volume shooter. And like I said he missed a boatload of bunnies last season. Often seemed the englsih on his shots was just one degree off.

I am not the biggest Thaddeus Young fan in the world.
But, in addition to March/April of 2009, where he was scoring 20 ppg as a PF, I am pretty sure he was the Sixers leading scorer for the first month of the season, when he averaged about 15 ppg from the small forward spot, and Brand and Igoudala had a tough time adjusting to each other.

He took what teams gave him offensively during those time periods, and was almost more of a junk scorer rather then a primary scorer. By junk scorer, I mean that he was the 3rd or 4th option on the play, never really the primary option. But he was very effective as that tertiary option.

However, he is a crappy rebounder at pf and sf. If his added strength improves his rebounding, he will be a very valuable player. If not, 1 dimensional scoring options off the bench are not that hard to come by in the NBA.

So from two threads ago, sorry to put it here, Bosh has fewer win shares because of his offensive/defensive rebounding splits? I'm just not getting how a system ranks a 23 and 10 player behind a less efficient 25 and 7 player. Even if you think PER overrates rebounding, just seems to me that a very efficient scorer and top rebounder is more valuable than a slightly more prolific and less efficient scorer and mediocre rebounder.

No, not offensive and defensive rebounding. Offensive and defensive rates, as in points scored and points allowed by the team while he's on the floor.

Tray reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 16:44

So basically a plus/minus thing? That seems so subject to context. All their good defenders were bench players; perhaps in general they did better when their bench was in the game, playing other teams' reserves, then when Bosh was out there with sieves like Turkoglu, Andrea, Calderon, etc.

Above you said:
"just seems to me that a very efficient scorer and top rebounder is more valuable than a slightly more prolific and less efficient scorer and mediocre rebounder."

Isn't that method of analysis also leaving out very important parts of the game ?

One of my favorite postings ever by you Brian! Agree 100%. I do not believe ANYONE has any idea what Thad will be at this time. I do believe that by mid season, we will know what we have/don't have in him and need to wait till then.

Thaddeus Young has athleticism, but little skill, he has a low basketball IQ and is terrible defensively, he's great scoring in transition but brings little else to the table and he had two years not under jordan, not just one, and his poor rebounding and defense have been consistent and people need to stop blaming EVERYTHING on eddie jordan last year...lack of rebounding and defensive effort is on Young.

he should not be given ANY extension until he proves he's worth it, and he hasn't proven he's worth it yet.

Chris reply to GoSixers on Jul 15 at 14:45

If he were cheap enough I'd sign him to an extension.

I agree on pretty much everything you said though I do think his first year he was OK defensively. I'm not quite sure why he isn't better on defense as he isn't far from Iggy as an athlete.

Quick thought experiment. Most of the league GMs (other than Morey in Houston) tend to overvalue players based on scoring (i.e. - if you score a lot you are a good player). That happens to be something Thad is very strong at. So, should the Sixers emphasize Thad's scoring this year to drive up his value for a sign and trade? If you bypass last year, at the end of the previous year, Thad was our primary scorer. If he could have been dealt then he could have brought back a pretty decent player at a position of need (the problem back then was he was on his rookie contract).

That depends if Ed Stefanski is still the Gm. I don't trust him as far as I can throw Large Marge

Myleskong reply to Chris on Jul 15 at 15:04

I think Thad's primary role should be scorer. His scoring ops will be greated by our guards and offensive rebounds.

Word around town is he's put on 10 lbs of muscle over the summer. So, he should be a better rebounder.

Word around town is he's put on 10 lbs of muscle over the summer. So, he should be a better rebounder.

I don't believe that logic follows since his rebounding problems are one of positioning and awareness, weight won't make him a smarter player

Myleskong reply to GoSixers on Jul 15 at 15:31

It comes down to mentality. I think going into this season opposed to any other, he'll be more mentally prepared to play the 4. Rebounding and defense are areas players often improve as they go throughout their careers.

Brian, I wrote a comment about this on the last post to try and get some Thad conversation going. Awesome that you were writing a post about it already. Good work.

Im curious what everyone thinks Thad needs to show us this year for us to give him a contract?

If we were to set some goals for him to try and accomplish what would they be? I think we'd have to make an assumption as to how many minutes he's going to get and at what position.

Personally, I'm less worried about his PPG but I'd like to see an improvement in his 3pt%, and his rebounding on both sides of the court. His defense will be more of a judgement call from watching the games but what do you guys think we should look for him to get in terms of stats?

Myleskong reply to scott on Jul 15 at 15:00

I think Thad and Brand will have very similar numbers, about 16.5 pts, 6.5 reb, 2 asts, 1.5 stl, 1.5 blks with Thad's steals being higher and Brand having more blocks both playing 30 minutes per game.

Jason reply to Myleskong on Jul 15 at 15:16

I think thad will ave 13/6

In about 30 minutes/game?

Jason reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 15:37

I think he won't play more than he did last season, pretty much the exact same Minutes (slight Decrease possibly).

Jason reply to Jason on Jul 15 at 15:51

Also, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Thad's PPG go down to 11.5 per game now that he's going to be playing more of the 4 and is in a functioning offense where he won't be able to take as many shots as he did last year (he shouldn't be taking anywhere near as many 3s as he did last year) and while he may have some closer shots that are higher %, i don't think he'll be able to create enough shots as a 4( partially due to his size). But i could be waaaaaay off base.

Myleskong reply to Jason on Jul 15 at 15:58

I think you are. He had his best offensive output playing the 4. He's just to quick against bigger guys and was great at getting his shot off down in the post.

Jason reply to Myleskong on Jul 15 at 16:02

haha, good :) i hope he does well for sake of sixers. Also i won't lie i don't get to see many games a year.

Did anyone see the ESPY segment of the Decision with Steve Carell and Paul Rudd??? I think Chili's is really popular in the Sports industry now.

THat would imply i wasted 2 hours watching the ESPY's cause the only other option was suicide

johnrosz on Jul 15 at 15:57

Randy Ayers broke Thad's jumper. Eddie Jordan broke his spirit. Can't we just give Thaddeus a few months of the season before we write him off completely.

No one said anything about writing him off completely right now. My point is that extending him before this season begins would be foolish.

Thad's first year he had a WS/48 of 0.140, a TS% of 57%, and a PER of 16.5. For a 19 year old rookie, that was tremendous. All 3 significantly better than Holiday. His second year was solid, but not what expected, and last year was awful.

I'm not ready to give up on him yet, although I like him long term as a 3 tenfold more than as a 4. Is there any past example of a player horrible at drawing fouls improving? With Thad's quickness of his moves, he should be able to develop that skill.

You'd think coaching could help somewhat, right? I mean, it's clear what the problem is. All of his moves near the hoop are designed to avoid contact and get off a shot that he believes he can make (which he does at a decent clip). He needs to be told, or taught or whatever that he needs to go through contact and still be able to finish. He plays like a guy who played with older kids his whole life on the playground and had to develop crafty moves to get his shots off because fouls weren't called. You should be able to coach that out of him.

Myleskong reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 16:42

I absolutely 100% agree.

You would think. I just don't know of many good examples. You could say Iguodala, but his ft rate went up somewhat in line with his usage%. Thad's already got a sizable usage%.

Igudoala's free throw rate was pretty strong right from the jump, he just never took any shots.

Durant has raised his rate dramatically, from .33 to .50 in three seasons.

No one really comes to mind. Tayshaun Prince is another guy in the same boat as him, and he never really improved his FTR.

Chris reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 23:43

What about Kevin Martin? He always drew a decent amount of fouls but his last few years he's drawn as many as anyone in the league.

Myleskong reply to Derek Bodner on Jul 15 at 16:35

That's how I feel minus the advanced stats. I don't know what's supposed to be high or low...what's average...
And I'm good at math.

Sixers lack of player development has hurt them for years. Thad has suffered because of it as well. In Doug We Trust...In Doug We Trust!

.100 WS is average(I think)
15 PER is average
I don't know the league average TS%

I guess league-average TS% corresponds directly to league average Offensive efficiency rating, right? So 104.9 points-per-100-possessions, roughly, means 52.45% TS. Right?

Hmmn...actually, I guess not, because TS% doesn't take turnovers into account. That would mean league average is higher than 52.45%?

Joe reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 17:12

Through combing the net I saw 52.8 come up a few times.

What sucks is... what if he does develop those skills even just a little bit?

Can the Sixers give another wing 10+ million a year?

I've been sort of holding off on a post about this very thing, and it goes beyond thad. I'll get to it sometime soon.

Joe reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 17:34

I mean think about Hawes, too.

If he plays 25+ minutes a game, he is getting a full MLE offer as well.

I don't think there's any reason to sign Thad now. Let's see what we have with him and try and get some good run out of him early this year. Thad's scoring numbers can't go up this year. He's at least option number 4, behind Iggy, Jrue, Brand, and probably Turner. If Lou is on the floor you know he's gonna shoot before he gives the ball to Thad. Speights is going to get his, as is Nocioni. I'm not sure where Thad fits into the offense. 8-10 ppg would be my guess. Unless he significantly improves his defense and rebounding I don't know why we would sign him when we already have a couple bad contracts on the books. However- if he turns into 6th man extraordinaire, coming off the bench playing like he did two years ago- or if he beats out Turner for a starting spot (which is likely after watching summer league)- maybe then it's worth giving him an extension after the season.

Question: Will the lock-out happen befoer or after next summer's FA period?

If the lock-out happens first, then I'd expect Thad would be very motivated to lock himself into an extension this year (before a lock-put and less player-friendly CBA.)

But if the FA period occurs before the lock-out, you'd expect Thad would try and see if he can get a bigger deal. Some bolder owners might want to lock players up to long deals before the new CBA and take advantage of teams like the Sixers who will be more looking to save dollars.

If the owners believe the lock out will happen first though I believe many teams will be motivated to wait :)

My take on Thad is that he will be a part of this team's future. We can go on and on about strengths/weaknesses at 21 and statistics but this league is dominated by players with very high athleticism which Thad has. He has all-star potential and you don't let a guy like that hit the open market.

I don't believe it is a good move to extend Thad before Oct 31st because he hasn't shown an all around game yet. Players work harder when they are fighting for a contract so the sixers have to use this to their advantage.

Thad had 3 coaches in three seasons. The only coach that really got the most out of Thad was Dileo. Doug Collins needs to have Thad come off the bench and earn a starting spot by showing the dedication on the defensive end and rebounding first, then you extend him.

Here are some contracts to compare Thad's worth broken down by Player(Contract/MPG/PPG/RPG):
Caron Butler (9 million/37/16/6), Luol Deng (10 million/37/17/7), David West (9 million/36/19/7)

Thad at 20 years old: (34 MPG/15.4 PPG/5 RPG)

He hasn't scratched the surface of his talent. He has the ceiling to become a 24-25 ppg/8 rpg All-star. I feel we must keep Thad Young.

Jason reply to smh1980 on Jul 15 at 21:22

He hasn't scratched the surface of his talent. He has the ceiling to become a 24-25 ppg/8 rpg All-star. I feel we must keep Thad Young."

What position do you see him at ni future?

smh1980 reply to Jason on Jul 16 at 3:13

I see Thad as a 3. But that doesn't mean that you don't extend him bc they have Iggy. All these players are assets.

If you get rid of Iggy it is because Thad has risen to his potential and you know that you can get a young, viable piece to the puzzle. You can get rid of Thad but only after his stock has risen and you can get a very good deal in return.

remember this....YOU ARE WAAAAAY off on Thad....he'll hit threes this year....CAN play both 3 and 4......EVERYONE ON THE FUCKING TEAM NEEDS A DO OVER AFTER HAVING THEIR HEART RIPPED OUT BY BRACE FACE.....sheesh...Ford is actually right in this case.......not usually.

No need to shout. I didn't say anything about what Thad would do this year, I said based on what he's done in his first three seasons, it would be dumb to extend him before the regular season even begins, because he hasn't earned it.

johnrosz reply to Brian on Jul 15 at 22:15

Wasn't Thad considered the third best player coming out of high school behind Oden and Durant? I remember hearing if they hadn't implemented the one year of college rule, that Thad would've been the third pick in the 06 draft.

The worst part of the Eddie Jordan era is that it's hard to tell whether the young guys just struggled under his idiocy or have a lower ceiling than we originally had hoped.

I wonder what Eddie Jordan is doing right now

The problems with Thad are pretty simple. Right now I see him as a total liability on the defensive end. He doesn't rebound well enough to be a four and he isn't quick enough to guard threes. Ford is mistaken when he says that he can play the 3 and 4 rather than he just does play the 3 and 4.

The offensive end is still intriguing. His game is IMO too much finesse even for a three. These whirling dervish moves are more effective going by a PF, not a SF who stays in front of him. I think he would be an asset as a 3 if he could post up some of these guys and use his quickness there. He's going to have a height advantage a lot. Let's also remember that his 3 point shooting has gone up every year even with EFJ and Ayers toying with his jumper. Let's say he can shoot around 50 percent from the floor and close to 40 percent from three. We keep him then right? Those goals are reachable too.

My point of view is that he could be a valuable asset to this team as a three, but as a four he's kind of gimmicky. As a four, he'd have to dramatically improve the boards or come off the bench. The problem is that I like my big guys off the bench to rebound and knock heads like Big Baby.

Right now the other big guys don't rebound the ball well enough for him to be a 4. That would put too much of a burden on Iguodala and Turner to grab boards. I praise Iguodala for grabbing the rebounds but it's a hollow victory, because our big guys have to do their share as well.

I would love it if Thad would turn into a 6th Man as a three if he defends better (EFJ seems to have had a bad effect on him) and raises his shooting, which he has done and should continue.

Chris reply to Rich on Jul 15 at 23:54

Thad is quick enough to guard almost any 3 (based on raw athleticism). If the first tier athletes are guys like Gerald Wallace and Iggy, he's in the very next tier. His athletic numbers at the draft camp were generally superior to Rudy Gay's from the year before.

Thad's problem is he makes poor decisions and leaves his man or he'd make poor rotations. Collins should tell him to just stay between his man and the basket, period. If he can't do that it is because he has poor footwork (probably as he always played C until college). He has incredibly long arms too.. He should be able to rebound a lot better than he has so far. I think they'll have to really work on his fundamentals

Rich reply to Chris on Jul 16 at 0:20

His defensive understanding isn't great, but let's see if he that was just poor coaching. Although I don't have a great memory of this, I thought he was a solid positional defender under DiLeo/Cheeks. If I remember correctly, his problem was strictly rebounding.

He's a great athlete, but he's slow footed laterally. Combine numbers aren't everything and if you can't put them into the game, they are useless. If you watch Thad play, he has trouble keeping threes in front of him, and to compensate he lays off them too far. He's not an adequate 1 on 1 defender as a three either.

Honestly, I think it's pretty ridiculous how low people are on Thad. The only advantage I see to extending him BEFORE the season is possibly a discount based on how terrible he was last year. If he blows up this year, which is not that ridiculous of a proposition, it may cost us more. The other factor that weighs in favor of giving him a shot is the fact that Iguodala is constantly being wagged around as trade bait. If Iggy does get traded, it would open up the 3 for Thad to step in. And with the Iggy trade you target a young 4 or 5...Any thoughts?

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