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Looking Back

Miller was awesome for this team, a good guy and his performances were consistently good.

I sure hope Jrue's development can make up for most of that loss this season.

I don!t think it was as one-sided as stated when the other end of the floor is taken into account; those nights when Jrue shut out Parker, Westbrook and others for whole quarters were fun to watch and helped our whole defense, in spite of itself.

Experience through playing time is all we can ask in the next 2 years and be comforted by the thought Miller, as good as he was here, wouldn!t work between Turner and Iggy like hopefully Jrue can.

Miller was a lottery ball killer, and a tremendous stabilizing influence.

I would have liked to see a year less of EJ and a year more of Miller. Jrue show some signs of Andre Miller style in his game with his ability to pass ahead and attack the paint. I think Jrue could have picked up a lot from Miller had they been teammates for a year.

As it was, Jrue had to rely on Aaron McKie... who is not even a PG. There was no PG on the roster or the coaching staff to help him along.

On a related note- Gary Payton really wants to break into coaching:
"I want to get a good job in coaching, move to a city where I think I can help younger kids and I think that'll be my next thing to do in the next year or so...."

One area where Payton sees himself as being potentially quite valuable to younger pros is in teaching defensive principles."

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/06/gary-payton-thinking-about-getting-into-coaching.php

Makes too much sense, he won't be coming to Philly.

I don't think there is any Payton/Collins connection (beyond Collins knowing everyone.) Also, I think McKie has the job that Payton is looking for- so there is not really an opening.

But if it were me, I'd have Collins working with turner (off the ball scoring), Payton with Jrue (Glove teaching Mitten) and McKie with Iguodala and Thad. Then maybe Bring Moses back to kick some ass.

If you are not going to have a great team, might as well have a star studded coaching staff.

Isn't Pippen hard up for money? How about bringing him in to work with Iguodala and Thad?

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Alvin reply to Brian on Jul 28 at 1:58
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Damn Pippen is one of my all-time faves. That dude was an unreal player. If he can coach like he can ball it'd be great. But as the other guys mentioned, it'd just make too much sense.

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paul reply to tk76 on Jul 28 at 13:07
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"Miller was a lottery ball killer, and a tremendous stabilizing influence."

Well said! That describes the value and drawback of his presence in a nutshell.

For those of you looking for player development, I think a guy that we need to look at is Quin Snyder. If you don't remember who he is, he coached at Missouri in his 30s after being brought up by Coach K at Duke as a player and coach.

From all I've read, this guy was working his way up the ladder in the Spurs system and doing some nice work for them. It seems like a good hire.

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MylesKong on Jul 28 at 9:40
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I don't like Miller's game. I didn't while he was here and felt he was really overrated. He's solid? Sure. I felt that he did too much getting his. He's good enough to help a bad team be mediocre but not good enough to really push a team over the hump. He can't improve Portland. They are too good a team for him to really impact no matter how many 50 point games he has. I thought it was very inconsistent to talk of him being a really good point guard while those same voices talk about the Iverson/Billups trade as "Denver finally getting a true point guard." They must have forgot that Miller was traded for Iverson, too. So how good can he be?

Anyways, as shown by the numbers above, Miller shot the ball a lot. Had no ability to stretch the floor beyond 19 feet and was a complete turnstyle against opposing point guards. He did a decent job defending most 2's I'll admit. He should have been move at the trade deadline. That way we would have had a opportunity to see what Lou could do at the point.

You're right that is really hard to determine the statistical differential at the PG spot since it was manned by committee. WHen it comes down to it, moving on was the necessary and best thing.

http://www.hornets247.com/blog/2010/07/27/taking-offers-for-chris-paul

What do you guys think of that trade scenario? The Sixers are mentioned in the Multi Team Trade section

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Joe reply to Gary on Jul 28 at 12:35
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So to be clear for other people... there are 2 involving the Sixers... he means the one in the multi team section.

I can't see the trade really since trade machine doesn't work on my computer.

Looks like... Sixers give up their best player(Iguodala) and a poor contract(Brand) to get a worse contract(Okafer) along with vince carter for a year or 2.

Where do I sign up for this? Do we give up Jrue as well or an unprotected 1st rounder or anything else fun?

The least the author could do is give up a contract not worse than Brand's if we are giving up Iguodala nd getting nothing in return... you know... so they would be in rebuilding mode.

Yep, that sums it up. Okafor is signed for a year longer than Brand as well.

I guess the logic here is that the Sixers would save a small amount of money long term (Iguodala's contract vs. Okafor's), get out of Brand's contract a year earlier (assuming Carter is bought out next season for $4M). And suck a little bit more in the mean time, getting better draft picks.

Oh, and for the record, I could definitely see this deal happening for the Sixers. 4 teams involved and they get the worst haul of any of them.

Miller was the engine of the Sixers' competitiveness since the day he arrived. He was likely their best point guard since Mo Cheeks. The young players who were here when he arrived gushed about how good of a point guard he was. I thought most of those who thought he might be reasonably replaced this past year were ridiculously optimistic and severely underestimated what he meant to the team.

I absolutely was opposed to letting him go, mostly because I wasn't prepared for a potentially miserable season (that did materialize) after three straight competitive years with Miller (if we count the significant turnaround that occurred during his first half year). However, now that the miserable season is over, the silver lining of the second pick followed it, and the apparent point guard of the future received far more playing time than he would have with Miller around and the team having a competitive season, I guess I'm OK with his departure.

It was fairly obvious through the majority of the season, that 19 year old Holiday was not quite ready to assume the starting role for an NBA team. But, the fact that he had to by mid-season, and that he was able to continue in that role for the remainder of a meaningless season, undoubtedly made him far more ready now than he would have been otherwise.

If they had given him $21M for three years, like Portland did, they would've made a seriously stupid trade this summer to get under the luxury tax. It would've made the Dalembert trade look like a bargain.

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paul reply to Brian on Jul 28 at 13:46
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Yes, you are probably right. Letting him go was rather disastrous for the short term but possibly for the best in the long term.

I'm not really on board with the statistical concept here. Miller was the PG so he affected the offensive efficiency in a lot of different ways besides his own production, but when I look at the offensive efficiency across seasons, it went up from .485 in '08-'09 to .496 in '09-'10. Turnovers per possession were an identical 15% for both seasons. One offensive area where things were a lot worse last year was in offensive rebounding percentage - probably more related to EJ's coaching than the loss of Miller.

The single biggest statistical problem with the EJ coached team was that the defense was wretched. One could theoretically claim that losing Miller was the downfall of the defense, but nobody (including me) actually wants to make that argument.

Miller's loss was felt in terms of intangibles like loss of leadership and late game execution, but the stats based case doesn't seem all that strong to me.

What do you mean by offensive efficiency? Are you talking about eFG?

Yes, I was talking about eFG and also turnovers per possession (stats from 82 games).

eFG is directly related to better three-point shooting. Which has something to do with Miller, obviously. But it doesn't take free throws into account. They averaged 5 more per game last season. Overall, the offense scored 108 points-per-100-possessions in '08-09 and only 106 this past season. That's a much more meaningful number than the eFG.

That's a good point - that the offense scored less last year because it didn't go to the FT line nearly as much, with this effect apparently overcoming a higher eFG% last season. In fact, it looks like there were about 4 more FTs/game from the PG position in the prior year, though the change in Iguodala's game and floor position as well as some mix of factors at PF also apparently contributed. It would have been hard to predict prior to last season that Brand would play the entire year and yet there would be fewer FTA from the PF position.

There are measurements that take into account all of Millers skills (or detriments like turnovers) if you really want to worry about it. Check out his offensive win shares if you wish.

And can we stop ignoring defense - please?

Not ignoring those things. I'm just disagreeing with the idea that statistics demonstrate the Sixers bad season last year compared to the year prior was significantly caused by missing Miller's contributions on offense. IMO, the stats POV is that the difference between the two years was not caused by missing Miller on offense. The claim that the difference was missing Miller on defense would just be a different idea, and I haven't seen anyone propose that (or else maybe Miller tired out the other team when he was playing offense and this showed up on the Sixer's defensive end).

I never said Miller's absence was the only reason. This post was just taking a look at how the Sixers filled those minutes, and whether they got the same level of production out of the position.

apparently there is gonna be a live chat with spencer hawes today at the seattle times website

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/n ... hat27.html

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zig reply to zig on Jul 28 at 14:52
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He answered my question about skipping Summer League.

Whoever's editing the questions isn't doing him any favors.

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zig reply to Brian on Jul 28 at 15:11
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he actually said this:


[Comment From Michael]
How does it feel to be considered Todd MacCulloch 2.0?

Spencer Hawes: I hope to have the opportunity to appear in two NBA Finals and have a successful career as Todd MacCulloch did.

Yeah, I can't decide if this is funny or sad.

I wasn't known as a presence on the defensive end but I think after a couple years of focusing on that aspect of my game, I have improved and will have to continue to do so in order for us to be successful.

Yeah, that was my question too. I also asked him if he was going to stop jacking threes and work in the paint, hasn't answered that yet.

I asked for evidence of defensive improvement outside his own self delusion...I'm shocked it wasn't posted

I get the feeling it's readers of this blog and guys who went to high school with Hawes in the chat.

He listens to Hanna Montana

Yeah, really points to inner toughness.

Hell, the fact that his musical taste includes Hanna Montana just points to his overall life view.

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Dutch reply to Brian on Jul 28 at 20:54
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I asked the Elton Brand question.

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Joe reply to zig on Jul 28 at 15:23
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You the man, zig.

Does this shock anyone?

Sort of reminds me of Gilbert's angry letter. GM's should not make excuses for failing to build good teams. makes him look worse than the player.

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johnrosz reply to Brian on Jul 28 at 16:19
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How long until Jesse Jackson accuses Colangelo of acting like a slave owner?

Off topic, Iguodala survived the initial cuts for the USA team, no surprise. Cuts were Evans, Mayo, McGee, and Gerald Wallace. Of those, I'm surprised that Mayo got cut (though I read he looked better in the scrimmage than in practice), and conversely I'm surprised that Green survived. Looking at the rest of the roster, I think the remaining cuts are: Gordon, Granger, and Green.

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Jason reply to Statman on Jul 28 at 17:02
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I'd rather see Gordon over Rondo. I don't think we need rondo in Turkey.

Yeah, I'd agree w/ this list. Surprised about Green as well, he doesn't belong there IMO.

Tyson Chandler, ugh. Guess size really is at a premium, huh?

Chandler is limited offensively, but on this team he should get his share of rebounds, blocks, and dunks. Wow, that sounds a lot like someone who used to play for the Sixers ...

Who also happened to be a lot healthier, but still he's a lot a lot worse than Tyson as I understand these things

Off topic, but I'm trying to get a little bit better of a read on stats and a lot of you know advanced stats well. I'm wondering what the best metric for measuring scoring. Looking at things, eFG is incomplete because it doesn't count free throws. Is true shooting percentage the best stat for that?

Offensive rating and offensive wins shares work well and try and incorporate more of a complete look. Looking at just points/scoring eliminates other offensive skills

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Rich reply to GoSixers on Jul 28 at 21:03
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Thanks. Yeah that was my next question. I was trying to get just scoring down first.

For pure scoring, I first look at pts/fga. This isn't a complete stat, but it's just some math I can do in my head and I think it's a good indicator. TS% is more complete, that's where I go if it's available. I agree with GoSixers, offensive win shares is a really good catch all that brings everything into the equation offensively.

Key indicators, for me, are three-pointers made/attempted and free throws made/attempted. That's where the differences really present themselves as far as scoring goes. A PF who shoots 50% from the floor but never gets to the line isn't really that valuable, or efficient.

and if you're really getting into advanced stats, read Basketball on Paper, can't recommend that book enough.

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Rich reply to Brian on Jul 28 at 22:33
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Hah. Picked it up last week.

To expand upon that, you could look at the number of free throws / field goal attempt or something like that. There really isn't a good way to see who is the best at drawing fouls while shooting yet since only those made baskets get counted.

If you're just looking at scoring efficiency, TS% is a good metric. TS% measures scoring efficiency relative to a "perfect" mark of 2 points per possession. A simple version would be (Points)/(FGA+FTA). Because there are occasional three point plays and technical free throws, there is a slight adjustment in the actual formula: (Points)/(FGA+0.88*FTA). League average TS% last year was around 54%.

Quick correction: the simple formula for TS% should be (Points)/(2*FGA + FTA), and the exact formula is (Points)/(2*FGA + 0.88*FTA).

The simple formula is more "correct" actually for the 80-90% of players who don't shoot any "and-one" or technical free throws in a given game (and it's easier to calculate when looking at a boxscore).


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