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Early Predictions: Jodie Meeks

Unless there are trades or injuries... splinters for Meeks. Which is a shame.

I expect Green will play in front of Meeks, because that is what every other coach has done. Then is March, when the Sixers are well out of the playoff hunt, he will get regular minutes and audition as Greens replacement.

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Rich reply to tk76 on Aug 2 at 0:51
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How do you figure that Willie will play over him? Just because of history and Willie seeming to find way more minutes than he should every year? I could easily but I hope you're wrong.

I hope Collins is different. Collins seemed to talk pretty highly of Jodie during the summer league, but maybe that's just because of him being one of the few guys there who are actually on the team.

Jrue/Turner/Iguodala/Lou are going to use all of the minutes. Whether the scraps go to green or Meeks is somewhat an after thought.

There's probably more than scraps to go around there. It's pretty aggressive to think Iguodala, Jrue, Turner and Lou will play 10,000 minutes, combined. Thad and Nocioni will take a bunch of the leftover minutes, but they're exclusively at the three (of the perimeter positions). Right now, Turner and Lou will have to use some of their minutes backing up Jrue at the point. That leaves a hole at the two. I'm guessing there will be between 1K and 1.5K minutes to fill there, depending on how heavy Turner's workload is.

Iguodala 37mpg
Turner 32 mpg
Jrue 34 mpg
Lou 25 mpg
Thad 10 mpg(at SF)
Nocioni 6 mpg(at SF)
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144 mpg a PG/SG/SF... is 48 min/position

Again, you need an injury or there are no minutes left.

10,500 minutes for AI9, Turner, JH and LW isn't realistic.

Only because someone will miss games due to injury...

But in terms of regular rotation the minutes I listed are realistic.

Iguodala routinely plays 38+ minutes
Lou averaged 29 Min/g last year
Jrue averaged 35 min/g the last 25+ games

So that leaves Turner. I expect 32 minutes given his age and supposed NBA readiness- but who really knows at this point. BTW, that would be less min/game than Iguodala averaged as a 21 year old rookie.

Iguodala is the exception, by a large margin.

Other 21-22 year old guards who were top picks:

Roy: 36 min/g
Wade: 35 m/game
Durant: 35 min/game
Mayo: 38 min/game
E. Gordon: 34

So if anything, Turner would be the exception.

There are some guys like Harden who only averaged 23min- but he was only 20.

An average of 1 or 2 rookies every year top 2,624 minutes in their rookie season (32M/game).

It's certainly possible, but I don't think you can say it's probable Turner plays that much. You're also giving lou 600 more minutes than he's ever played.

You are clouding things with injuries that no one knows will happen or not. I am strictlyt talking about minutes per game- and then maybe some time will open up due to injuries.

Lou averaged 29 min/game. I predict 25. That is a decrease.

Are you predicting an injury for him?

I'm just saying he's yet to crack 2,000 minutes, for whatever reason. Is Collins going to give Lou 25 minutes/game if he continues to defend the way he has for the first five years of his career? Can Lou's slight frame handle that many minutes for an 82-game season?

32 players in the league played all 82 games last year. Only 160 missed fewer than 10 games. The Sixers do have youth on their side, but injuries happen. I just think you're being overly bullish on the minutes those four guys are going to play.

I looked more into it. Again, I expect a guy who is 22 to get more min than a guy who was 19-20 as a rookie. Also, fociussing on SG/SF. Minutes played at PG or PF will IMO reduce you NBA readiness. Bigs don't get heavy minutes as rookies because they are physically not ready. PG's need a special adjustment. But experienced swings picked high generally get heavy minutes.

last 7 years, players who are SG or SF darfted in top 7 (Iguodala 9):

Jeff Green, age 20 when drafted, 28 mpg/g
Cory Brewer: Age 21 when drafted, 23 min/g
Curry 36 min
Tyreke Evens 37 min
Morrison: 30 min
Foye: 22min (but a PG)
Marvin Williams: 23 min freshman
Martel Webster: minimal, HS
CV: 25min (SF/PF)
Ben Gordon: 24 min (PG/SG)
Chilress: 30 min
Deng: 34 min
Iguodala: 33 min
Lebron: 40 min (HS)
Carmello: 37 min

Looking at this list. Consider Turner is 22 and drafted #2 overall... why would you expec less than 32 min?

I'm really not doubting Turner, or Lou, for that matter. What I'm saying is that banking on those 4 guys, 3 of whom have no history of playing heavy minutes in the NBA, for 10,500 isn't realistic. I hope it happens, provided Lou isn't a complete negative on the defensive end, but I don't see it playing out that way.

Well hopefully a little Jodie emergence takes away time from Willie.

I look at it this way. From what I've seen Jodie is not a great defender, but he does play hard on that end, almost like a Korver. That's already better than Willie, who has a sort of cautious (some would call it lazy) approach to team defense. If Collins can steer Jodie to being a mediocre defender (probably the most we can ask), that's still better than Willie. I just hope he doesn't play a ton of his minutes with Lou, which could spell trouble.

His three point percentage is really everything towards his value to me. He looked very comfortable in Summer League and had flashes during the season. Getting seasoning may be big for him because the guy was a high-level scorer in college. I actually think the guy could turn into an Eddie House type. A guy who shoots around 40 percent from three who busts his but defensively. That's not a bad 9th/10th man, if he shoots it well from deep.

I think Meeks will have up and down minutes all year and Collins will extend his minutes everytime Lou forgets the defensive end matters. Guys like Meeks, J.Smith and Nucioni will thrive under Collins because when all else fails, they bring energy. Your 15 mpg. is right on, but they will fluctuate greatly.

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MylesKong on Aug 2 at 9:09
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I think Meeks will start off the season getting a decent amount of minutes. But as Turner gets better and better over the course of the season Jodie's minutes will rapidly decline being relegated to garbage time and those awful shooting days the team is bound to have. Meeks' energy reminds me a lot of Carney. I don't expect to much out of him. I think his best contribution to the team will be pushing Turner to develop his 3-pointer a lot quicker so he can play more.

I remember when we traded for Meeks and and some clown proclaimed that Meeks was a stiff, later on that clown admitted that he had never eben seen Meeks play. Thankfully that clown is back in the circus because this kid can indeed play.

In my world. Meeks takes all of Willie g's minutes, he drinks up those minutes the way Daniel Plainfeild drinks up milkshakes.

Also at some point DC will realize that playing Lou Williams at the point is a losing proposition. Lou needs to go asap, he is worthless to us as a backup PG.

I would rather have kept the second rounder. The #37 could have been used to trade up ahead of the Kings(33) to draft Whiteside, or to draft Alabi, Jarvis Varnado or Jerome Jordan.

I'd rather address a position of need (defensive center for cheap) than be discussing about a guy fighting for 5 minutes a game who is an undersized SG who can't play PG.

Meeks is fine. I hope he develops into a decent replacement fro Green. Just don't see how he was worth giving up a high second rounder (like this team seems to do every year.)

And beyond the hate... Meeks is not nearly the player Lou is (and they are the same age) although Meeks does fill a need as a shooter.

At age 23 Lou put up 14pts, 4.2asst to 1.7 TO, 47% FG, 34% 3pts, got to the line and had a TS% of 57%. He made a huge jump, which often happens when a player is in his 3rd year with regular minutes. Guys can improve, even if they are hated. The same can be said for Green, but he is a lot older.

And Hawes is not nearly the player Sam is- although I would have just let Sam expire and use the cap space to find a better replacement.

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MylesKong reply to tk76 on Aug 2 at 11:35
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Lou's offensive production is solid. However, I don't think it outweighs what he gives up on the other end. To me, Meeks value comes from him having a specific at which he can excel(3-pt shooting) and his mass enabling him to body guys on the defensive end.

From what I've seen, Meeks gives effort on the defensive end, but that doesn't mean he's an effective defender. If Lou's on the team, he's clearly ahead of Meeks. Meeks should clearly be ahead of Green, though, for a number of reasons.

So how many min/game do Green + Meeks get if everyone else is healthy? Do they get Ivey type minutes?

If everyone's healthy and the game is in question, I don't think they get much time at all. But there will be injuries, and there will be back-to-backs and there will be blowouts. I think 1,000 minutes for Meeks, hopefully less than 500 for Willie.

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Turtle Bay on Aug 2 at 12:04
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I'm glad he's saying the right things, but I've gotten to the point where what guys say means very, very little. I'm not completely buying the conditioning thing from the summer league. He's got work to do, and it's more than just building up his wind.

Nocioni got hurt practicing for the Worlds. Looks like he'll probably be fine.

If he was "tough" he would play through the pain :) Maybe put some ketchup on his sock like Kurt Schilling.

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MylesKong reply to Brian on Aug 2 at 13:38
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Yeah, the constant pushing off is not going to work in this league. Atleast Favors and Johnson didn't dominate. I'm going to be worried until he has a string of great games.

I think this a good thing that we are arguing whether Jodie will get more than scraps and leaving Willie out of the conversation. Jodie is someone who I at least could see viable for the future.

Lou is a very good offensive player, but his defense is terrible. Seeing how Collins tries to use him and where he fits in his system should be interesting. That's a big difference from the starters, where your 1-2-3 all look like plus, versatile defenders.

I think the Sixers should do the right thing and buy Willie Green out. He is a decent player who could get regular minutes on some teams. Why not let him go somewhere where he can contribute?

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Rich reply to tk76 on Aug 2 at 13:35
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I think they would have traded him already if other teams felt that way.

I expect he might have some value as an expiring contract this season, but not sure how much.

There are high level teams who would rather Have a Willie Green for the min as their 10th man than a 22 year old who can't be relied upon.

Sure no one would pay his 3M. I'm saying buy him out for 2.5M and let him catch on for the vet min somewhere he can be part of a vet rotation. Say the Bucks- where he would be better off the bench then CDR.

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Rich reply to tk76 on Aug 2 at 14:27
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Willie quietly had the best shooting season of his career. I'm fairly sure that was at least partly because we had a coach that allowed him to accentuate his strengths. I don't know if the Bucks would be better of with him than CDR though.

I'd be alright with him being bought but we know they don't spend extra money. I just want him to expire though. I don't think we could get back anything too valuable for his expiring anyway.

Buying him out would save money, though. They wouldn't be getting anything for their money, but they'd be spending less of it.

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Rich reply to Brian on Aug 2 at 14:35
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Yeah my mistake. I'd be fine with it, but I think he would struggle to find a spot on a good team.

If Meeks gets more minutes than Willie Green, I'll be happy. Green should not be with the team after next season and should be used as a trade asset this season if there are teams looking for expiring deals (I don't think there will be as many due to all the unused cap space and such, it'll be easier for folks to find cap room), but I'm hoping that Meeks will impress Collins enough that the Willie Green 15-20 MPG era will finally be over

I agree that spot minutes will become available due to injury. But its impossible to project how many. That is why I am only trying to project the normal rotation/minutes heading into the year assuming guys are healthy. there is nothing to suggest that their main PG/SG/SF [layers are brittle.

there is nothing to suggest that their main PG/SG/SF players are brittle.

Nothing other than the broken back and broken jaw two of them suffered last season, right?

Turner had a freak injury, that is not susceptible to re-occur because it was not a stress reaction nor does it involve a weight bearing part of the spine (my medical opinion). Other than that Turner played 37-40 min of every game last year.

Lou, I'm saying 25 min/game. I guess he could get hurt, but who knows. And Iguodala is Iguodala.

As I said, there will be some minutes that open up due to injury. But its really impossible to know how many.

Right, so except for the month he missed, he played a ton of minutes. And except for the month Lou missed, he played 29 minutes/game. That's kind of the point.

Yeah. I can give you an educated guess on how many minutes guy could or should play when people are healthy.

Or I can break out the wiji board and tell you who will get hurt :)

If you want to say 1500 minutes will open up during injury... then I'll say those minutes go to Meeks and green like you suggest. And if any give night J/I/T/Lou are available, then Green/Meeks will get scraps.

We are really not disagreeing here...

I agree :)

Long day here.

Didn't Lou miss some time later in the year with back pains too?

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MylesKong reply to Brian on Aug 2 at 14:20
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Yup.

If my memory serves me, Lou has been out atleast 4 times, maybe more, due to injury over the past 2 seasons.

Toe - after low bridge from David Lee
Chest contusion - after taking Rose's shoulder to the sternum
Broken jaw - from a Jamison shoulder
Back - not really sure of the cause for this

String of injuries not a good sign for the stringbean.

Yeah, its possible that Lou will be an injury prone player. Its too soon to say that about Turner based on a freak injury.

Some guys are injury prone due to build, age, style or just genetics. The Sixers have been lucky in this regard between Miller, Iguodala and Sam.

I don't really have a problem w/ the ranking, I guess. Though I think someone in the bottom 8 will probably figure out a way to win 40 games, and I don't see the Sixers topping 35, at best.

Thanks for the link. They say 8th. I guess anywhere from 6th to 11th is not outside the realm of possibility.

-Eddie Jordan 1st year teams average record: 26 wins
-Sixers last year: 27 wins
-Average team the year before Collins: 27 wins
-Collins 1st year teams average record: 42 wins

Now there are a lot of mitigating factors like adding players like having Grant hill in his 2nd year. But the Sixers will have Jrue in his 2nd year and Turner... so it could happen.

But losing their only interior defender/rebounder will make it an uphill fight.

Ranking teams in conference order can be really hard to do. Hollinger, who I respect alot, had the Sixers 5th last year. I don't really get why people (not here) obsess over it. It's just hard to do.

Hollinger ranking the sixers fifth does actually prove something, but not what you say it proves

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Court_visioN reply to GoSixers on Aug 2 at 22:50
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it proves eddie jordan was more of a bonehead than anybody anticipated?

I was more thinking of what it proved about Hollingers so called expertise

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tru1776er on Aug 3 at 15:34
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Jodie Meeks will take all of willie green's minutes. That's why they brought him in here. Willie Green's been here for 5 or 6 years and what has he helped this team do????I think eventually Jodie will take Lou's spot..the only problem they have is finding a back-up/3rd pg..Cuz it seems like DC wants to play Lou w/ ET b/c ET can run the point. But they can't start ET at 2 and have him play back-up 1 every night, especially as a rookie..I'm interested to see what happens though cuz this team is kind of wierd the way it stands and I know Stiffanski knows that as well


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