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Early Predictions: Spencer Hawes

While he may not rebound or play too much defense, I think that hawes will score a good amount with this team. If he starts, he will probably be taking a whole lot of perimeter shots setup from turner/iggy/jrue. hopefully he shoots better than 30% to justify him taking the shots and not iggy

For his career he's been a horrible inefficient scorer, so I hope you're wrong about him getting a ton of shots.

The Knicks have 26 million to spend next year and the available FA's are:

UFA:
Tony Parker
David West
Nene
Tim Duncan
Yao Ming
Carl Landry
Sam Dalembert
Caron Butler
Jason Richardson
Andrei Kirilenko
Troy Murphy
Teshaun Prince
Troy Murphy
Jamal Crawford

RFA:
Carmelo Anthony
Al Horford
Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Aaron Brooks
Jeff Green
Greg Oden
Rodney Stuckey
Thaddeus Young
Marcus Thornton

If the Sixers can get rid of Lou and Nocioni and not resign Thad, Smith or Hawes they'll have 18 million to spend, but I doubt that'll happen.

Melo isn't restricted.

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Fred reply to Brian on Aug 5 at 13:04
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that's worse for us.

Not really. It's much harder to sign a restricted free agent.

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Fred reply to Brian on Aug 5 at 17:54
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We won't be able to sign him and he has his heart set on NY.

Don't bother thinking about next off season or cap room because it's not going to be what it is now. There's either going to be a new CBA with a much lower cap on the BRI in the salary cap or there's going to be a lock out, there's going to be no mid level or bi annual and there's going to be lower max values and lengths, or there's going to be a lock out.

ANd Melo is an idiot if he doesn't sign the extension with denver because he's going to give up a lot of money

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rchap13 reply to Fred on Aug 5 at 13:54
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Is troy murphy so good that you have to put him twice under unrestricted? Lol.

I would be willing to take a risk Marc Gasol or Greg Oden, if it can happen

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Jason reply to Steve on Aug 5 at 14:55
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Don't think that Marc Gasol is a risk. Oden is.

Either way we'd have to break the bank to get them and we won't have any cap room next year (we will prob be close to luxury tax again lol).

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Steve reply to Jason on Aug 5 at 17:56
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Gasol is probably going to get a 10-15 million annual deal. He is that polished or dominant as Elton was back in the day.

My prediction:

Minutes: 2000 (in 72 games)
Points/game: 12.8
Rebs/game: 6.9
Ast/game: 2.1
Steals/game: 0.4
Blocks/game: 1.2
TOV/game: 1.5
DNPCDs: 0
FG%: 46.5%
3PT%: 32%

Not overly optimistic, but not too pessimistic either. He'll get the chance to show what he's got and at worst that guarantees slightly inflated numbers. As for his man to man defense against strong big man...., well lets just skip that part and end this on a high note :D.

He'll get the chance to show what he's got and at worst that guarantees slightly inflated numbers.

He's had a chance to show what he's got for the past three seasons, hasn't he? It's not like he was buried on the end of the bench in Sacto.

Technically the projected production is not far off the numbers he did actually average in Sactown last year...

True.

comes out to 27.7min/g. About what he got in Sactown.

Can Brian and other list their expected min/game. It makes it easier to see how you projections compare to their career numbers (on a per minute basis.)

There is a huge difference between these numbers based on 82 games vs say 65...

1600 min/82 games = 19.5 min/game.
1600 min/65 games = 24.5 min/game

Brian's numbers would be fine for 19 min, but pretty lousy, and well below historical production if he is playing 25 min/game.

FYI: last 2 years:
27min/game; 11/ 6.5/ 2.1/ 46.7% / 32.5% from 3pts

My prediction:
28 min
7.1 reb
11 pts
1.3 blks
46% FG
0.6 3pts/game
2 TOV

Pretty sure I had him at 20/game. I trashed the spreadsheet shortly after I wrote the post, though, so this is just from memory.

Speights is up next, I have him playing about 20.8/game, and missing 10 games.

Thanks. So you have Hawesome get about 7 min less per game on the Sixers? I expect he will get 25min just for being tall...

You should see the master minutes spreadsheet I have. It's a complete mess.

I see Hawes with the most minutes at the five, followed by Speights, followed by Smith, followed by Brand, then Battie, but I have them clumped together pretty tightly.

Maybe Collins will play Hawes a lot more than I'm predicting here, but I don't see any justification for it.

Also, all the talk about small lineups w/ Thad/Nocioni at the four skews things for me. You don't really need Hawes "stretching the floor" when those guys are out there at PF. I think Hawes will play a bunch w/ Brand at the 4, and possibly w/ Speights at the 4. Doubt he'll be out there in small lineups though.

PF + C = 96 min/game, 7872 minutes total.

Maybe bump it to 105 minutes to account for minutes being opened up due to injury...

Hawes: 28
Brand: 32
Speights: 25
============
85 minutes for the core rotation guys

That leaves 20 minutes to spread between:
Smith (4)
Battie (4)
Thad (7)
Nocioni (5)

I expect Smith and/or Battie to get a ton of DNP. One will be inspective every night and the other will get minor minutes. While Thad and Nocioni will combine for a good amont of minutes at PF (often both on the floor together making a fearsome duo indeed.)

inspective should read innactive

Minutes at the 5:

Hawes - 1600
Speights - 900
Smith - 800
Brand - 400
Battie - 200

That comes out to 3,900, so 36 minutes leftover somewhere. That was the best I could come up w/.

Smith's seem high to me when I look at it this way, but if I was going to take some of his away, I'd probably give them to Brand or Speights, not Hawes.

I find that distribution of numbers depressing

Is there any distribution that wouldn't depress you? You can't change the players names, unfortunately.

Yes, if Speights gets more overall minutes than Hawes I'll be happier

I have it being pretty close, but I think Speights misses some time with injuries, or maybe even the gout.

But that is just at the 5. I assume Hawes only gets minutes at 5, while Speights will play 4 and 5. In fact, eventually I would like to see if Speights/Hawes can work.

I was off the grid for awhile.

Did Collins say Hawes isn't starting or something? I kinda figured he'd be the starter at the 5.

He hasn't said anything either way.

My Prediction?

PAIN

When I read Brian's title, I almost posted the youtube for that...

Steve and Jason, Gasol at 25 has the same pts. and reb. per 36 as Hawes at 22 yet you would give him 10 to 15 million? I think Hawes makes slight improvement under a good coach and improves slightly on his 11 and 7 and 10 and 6 numbers of the last 2 years in about 25 m.p.g..

I expect him to average 13 ppg., 8 rpg., 3 ass. and 1.5 blocks in 28 minutes a night, slight upgrades but definite improvement. I also think for our big three to flourish, like it or not one of our bigs must play away from the basket and if Hawes can!t than they have to find one that can.

You have to dig deeper besides points and rebound per 36 if you want to compare players, it's a fools errand what you're doing, and if for some reason you feel that Hawes compares to Gasol because of those numbers, it fails the vision test, i.e. no one in their right mind things Hawes is worth that much

Gasol at 22 was a pudgy guy that most people thought wasn!t an N.B.A. player. Those 3 years make a big difference, look at how he has changed, that is why I don!tr understand the perception that Hawes can!t.

Because you're thin on proof and ignoring the evidence of Hawes first three years in the league and his issues on and off the court

I hated the trade when it happened and continue to think Hawes isn't the type of center this team needs.

But one great thing about being a sports fan is that even when you're sure a player is who he is, deep down you still have a sliver of hope that maybe this guy can surprise you. So I'm going to tap into that tiny bit of hope that I have for Hawes being a legit NBA center and try to blame his former team.

Hawes isn't the type of big that's going to be successful by just dumping it in to him and letting him go to work. He relies on his teammates to get him the ball in situations where he can be effective and coaches to design an offense he can work well in. Hawes had three different coaches in his three years in the league. So maybe, like Thad and other sixers, we can blame his slow development on the constant change of leadership. Also, Id have to believe that Collins will be the best "teaching" coach hes ever had.

Hawes also never got to play with any real playmakers. His point guard was Beno Udrih. Not exactly the type of point guard thats going to help you get better. He's got to be one of, if not, the worst starting points in the league. The wings wern't much better. He played with Artest his rookie year, when Ron-Ron was showcasing his scoring talents(never good). Kevin Martin is thinking shoot first, then shoot again, and again. I like Salmons, he can pass, but at that point he was still trying to establish himself as a legit scorer and fighting martin for shots. He probabaly wasn't too concerned about the teams young center getting involved. And of course last year he got to play with Tyreke. Iv'e seen him play live, and on tv several times. One thing I can say for sure about him is that his teammates probably hate playing with him. It's probably a big reason why Hawes had a "bad attitude" last year.

Now look who he gets to play with. For the first time he will get to play with a real pass first point guard. Holiday will seem like Stockton to Hawes after three year of Beno. Andre and Turner, the two guys who will lead the team in usg%, both are unselfish playmakers who any big man should love playing with. This really couldn't be a better situation for Hawes. He will have every opportunity to show he could have a future with this team.

What I Hope for: 2400 mins, 14ppg, 8rpg, 3apg, 1.5 bpg

What I'm expecting: 1600 mins(inj) 11ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.5apg, 1bpg


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Charlie H reply to DonH on Aug 5 at 20:02
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Why do you expect his teammates not to hate him this year? Or did I misunderstand?

I think you misunderstood. I wasn't implying his teammates hated him, just that he probably hated his teammates.

What justification would he have for hating his team mates? Because they were better than him? Because they don't like Hanna Montana? Because they aren't rabid republicans?

Hawes behavior on and off the court has been poor since he entered the league, I see no reason to believe it'll change in Philadelphia. Hope is like faith, it's nice, but reality tends to win in the end.

What is the plausibility of this scenario. Sixers will make the qualifying offer and no other team will offer him a long term deal, thus meaning he will be with us for another year?


It's possible, I suppose. I'm hoping they don't even make the qualifying offer, though.

I'm willing to see how he does before all hope is lost...

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bebopdeluxe reply to tk76 on Aug 6 at 12:08
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...and a voice of sanity is heard from the crowd.

Phew.

BTW...I think your prediction #'s look about right.

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TruePhan on Sep 4 at 8:39
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First of all: If there's any great white hope in a big man, it's Kevin Love. His game is not limited by his position at all, offensively or defensively, and he has one of the best outlet passes in the game. He has no deficiencies at either end of the floor that make him a liability, and he hasn't nearly reached his potential. Kevin Love is the first white low post player I have ever seen that doesn't make you see his color when you watch him. Players like him are the hope for continuing to narrow the gaps between races in basketball. He's proof that it has nothing to do with race.

Spencer Hawes is not now nor will he ever be Kevin Love, but he's no scrub. I've been following him since high school, and watched him in college. He is a gifted scorer, the type who could be unstoppable with his shooting ability if he keeps developimg his low post offensive game, especially if he develops a wider array of hooks. Just like they did Kevin Love, Dime Mag loved Spencer Hawes, infact they're the reason I started paying attention to him. I never thought he could play in the East because he's not that hard-bodied, athletic, East Coast player. His only hope to be a starter in this league is to use his length to block shots and be a better version of what Dalembert occasionally was for us during his tenure. He has all the potential in the world to do so though; he just needs to toughen up and play with more intensity.


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