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What Can We Expect From Turner?

Love the post.

I think this offers some real perspective. And something to also consider is that if he produces 5 wins this year then he is taking minutes from Willie who probably would have added 2-3 in the same amount of time.

So don't expect the kid to help a whole lot even if he is pretty good.

I'd say he will be around 4-4.5 the WP and WS. And probably like 5.5 in EWA by season's end assuming he reaches at least 2300 minutes.

I have a feeling WP will be kind to Turner. He should be a very strong rebounder at the two. I don't think 6 or 7 WP is out of the question. WS and EWA will probably be lower, unless he winds up being the focal point of the offense and takes a ton of shots, in which case his EWA will probably be inflated.

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Joe reply to Brian on Sep 9 at 16:27
+/-

Probably right

Team USA vs. Russia at 11am today. I guess the games will get harder from this point on.

Team USA is still a 23.5 point favorite (ESPN's Beat the Streak is setting the betting line at 25). However, Chris Sheridan in his preview worries that Russia will have a 5-inch advantage at center (Odom is listed at 6-10, Mozgov at 7-1, so I'm not sure what he's talking about) and a 4-inch advantage at PF (Iguodala will be facing a fellow "Andre," Andrey Vorontsevich, who really is 6-10 to Iguodala's 6-6).

I'll check in with updates throughout the game ...

Hasn't Durant been the four?

When you get a chance, let us know who Iguodala is covering.

You were right (the article was wrong) -- Iguodala came out on the SF. He came out overanxious and picked up 2 fouls in the first 5 mins, sat down for Westbrook. 0-2 FG, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO. So far USA 17-13.

Tied after one quarter, 25-25. Russia is playing a typical Euro offense, driving and kicking, and they are hitting their shots. This could be a lot like the Brazil game. Durant has 13, rest of the USA 12.

Is Russia playing a zone? I saw Curry was in the game, was that a reaction to the zone?

They are mixing it up, but the base defense is a match-up zone. USA has been jacking up a lot of three's (and missing) or driving into the zone one-on-two, playing into Russia's hands. 31-30 Russia now. Iguodala came back in, stole the ball, and then scored on a follow jam.

44-39 USA at the half. Russia was actually up 35-30 when the USA went on a 12-0 run. Iguodala was in the middle of the action. Posted up by the 6-10 Russian PF, he stripped the ball when the PF turned around (we've all seen that before), then stripped the ball again, leaving 2 on the shot clock. 24-sec violation followed. Later, Iguodala picked up a one-arm offensive rebound while his other arm was being held. Made both free throws that followed. Still later, he scored in a traffic off a broken play, drew the foul (but missed the free throw).

Russia took full advantage of the poorer U.S. defenders (Love and Curry, Odom and Billups in the starting lineup). Curry was particularly bad, trying to pressure the ball 30 feet from the hoop. A simple pick by the Russian center would leave the Russian PG penetrating against Chandler or Love, leading to easy baskets. Fran Frischilla mentioned something about the U.S. having to be "patient on defense," meaning they don't need to gamble for steals. The problem is that playing good straight-up defense takes a certain type of talent, something not all the players on the U.S. roster have (other posters on this site may disagree).

USA 70-56 after three quarters. Defense has stabilized, which makes all the difference. Westbrook had a big 3rd quarter, two dunks and a 3 (though he still plays a little out of control). Iguodala picked up his 3rd foul and went to the bench with 5 mins left, but not before he made a nice play off an overthrown fastbreak pass, passing the ball back to the trailing Billups for an open 3.

Team USA wins 89-79. Outcome wasn't in doubt in the 4th. Iguodala never came back in after he went out with his 3rd foul in the 3rd quarter, but he was +13 for the game. He was huge during the crucial stretch of the game, when Russia was up 35-30 and the U.S. went on a 12-0 run. Westbrook was big during the other important segment in the 3rd that stretched the lead from 6 to double digits, after which the U.S. could mostly relax. (Strangely, Westbrook played poorly other than his 10-point burst in the 3rd.)

Next up is the winner of Argentina-Lithuania in the semis, Saturday at (I think) 2:30 PM EDT. Argentina is playing without Ginobili and our favorite "tough" Sixer, Nocioni, so they have been a two-man team, with Luis Scola scoring 30 PPG on 61% shooting and Delfino adding 18 PPG (nobody else averaging more than 8 PPG). Fortunately, Team USA's best two defenders (Iguodala and Durant) play those two positions. Lithuania is led by Linas Kleiza, averaging almost 20 PPG. The U.S. already beat Lithuania by 16 in exhibition play.

Thanks for the updates, Statman. This work thing can so inconvenient sometimes.

I'm gonna go on the high end and say 7 wins produced. If the team wins 35 games, and Turner plays well I don't think it's unreasonable that he could account for 20% of the wins. He should get some assists and steals to bump his number up, and I think his FG % should be decent. What I'm really going to be interested to see is how many times he gets to the free throw line. I hope that's his focus on the offensive end, to attack and put pressure on the defense.

I'm not too worried about advanced stats this year, because advanced stats measure current production not whether his potential translates, much like Jrue last year was an advanced stats nightmare. If I can see that his skillset will translate and he'll continue to develop, I'm happier than what kind of advanced metrics he puts up.

(that doesn't mean I don't think he doesn't have a chance to be solid in advanced stats, just that it's not my priority).

I agree with this point. I'm not looking for any kind of specifics from Turner, but like Holiday, I'm looking for him to progress. Be it 'rookieness' or stupid coach but as the season progressed Holiday got better, I believe he may have even ended up leading the team in t 3% (did he take 'enough' to qualify for that title) by the end of the season, crediting that to work with Aaron Mckie.

Last year, I wasn't worried about wins and losses, I knew it wasn't a championship team, I was looking for player development and sadly only saw it from one of three options. I'm looking for Evan Turner to be better at the end of the year then he was in the beginning of the year, no matter what sort of numbers he ends up with, basic or advanced. I'm looking to see the big 3 of the sixers meld and gel as the season progresses, to compliment each others games more as the season progresses (I expect it to be ugly to start with).

That's what I"m looking for

Agreed on what's important. This post was more about what the team (and fans) can realistically expect from Turner, in terms of helping them win games. Some people have the expectation that Turner is going to key some kind of big turnaround, these numbers show that's pretty unlikely.

I appreciate the numbers, but anyone who thought Evan Turner was going to be the key to some big turn around in his first year with a new coach, no big men to play defense were deluding themselves in the first place. Plus, they won't let any sort of factual support dissuade them from their belief that if Evan Turner isn't a 20PPG scorer right away he's a bust (hell some of them think he's a bust already after 5 games in 5 days after a 3 month layoff)

There are unrealistic expectations GALORE when it comes to the 2010/11 sixers, Turner is just one of many that people have.

Jrue wasn't an advanced stats nightmare...

His first half was and his first half was a nightmare overall.(at least the first couple months)

His second half was good enough to be categorized as average, which is great for a 1 year college rookie and would put him up there in those lists with a Darren Collison.(at least Wins Produced, the one I follow closest)

0.032 WS/48, 12.3 PER, 21.9% TOV%, 1.149 dMult.

None of these are dependent on playing time.

Sure, he got better as the year went on, but as a whole, the advanced stats were much lower than the promise we see in the kid, which was my point.

I guess my point was that advanced stats show the improvement you speak of.

If you took all the Sixers' plays from the whole season and randomly distributed them, you would see a not so good player in Jrue. In turn, averaged stats show a not so good player.

The season watched in singular games as the season progresses shows marked improvements. Singular games followed throughout the whole season with advanced stats show marked improvement.

Not sure I explained my point very well... in the end, Jrue improved as the season progressed,(by my eyes and advanced stats) which was nice. Thad keeps getting worse,(by my eyes and advanced stats) which is not nice.

I'd like to see a wins-vs-replacement for Turner when compared to Willie Green, Jodie Meeks, and Lou. I think his defense alone brings a few wins. If he can play under control, get to the hoop, and hit the open J- he will be a big addition and the stats will come.

Not sure what to expect from Turner his rookie year. I thought he was ready to step in an be an impact player, but the Summer League suggests he might have more of an initial adjustment period. Either way, I'd most like to see a great final 1-2 months, much like Jrue last season.

Turner's initial role is very much in question. His comfort zone is being a creator, but my guess is that both Jrue and Iguodala will have that role this season. And the better those guys play, the less Turner will be asked to create. He could end up easing his way into the league, and hopefully is spoon-fed easy looks by his teammates.

Down the road I know we would all like to see Iguodala and Turner sort of flip roles, to where Iguodala plays a more complementary role in the offense. But I don't think we'll see that happen until late in the season, if at all.

Not to put too much into Summer League (and we've been over that too much)- but it was facinating to see how Jrue could be so dominant only 1 full season removed from struggling as a college freshman- while Turner was the reverse.

I guess a year in the NBA makes all of the difference in terms of knowing how to play against superior athletes. I remember how Jrue would under-estimate his opponents early in his rookie year, leading to careless turnovers. And now Turner was doing the same thing- which he hopefully adapts as quickly to as Jrue. If anything, it will be easier for Turner, because he will have Iguodala and Jrue on either side of him to do the heavy lifting.

Turner also won't have a d-bag head coach who gets off on playing head games with his players, which is an advantage Jrue didn't have in his rookie year.

I really can't think of a worse situation for a rook than what Jrue was thrown into last season. Rookie PG who didn't get to play the point during his one season in college, then gets to the pros and has an idiot coach with a ridiculous system that "doesn't need a point," and the coach making statements like, "he's got too much point in him." Then he gets his minutes jerked around for half a season until the FO steps in and mandates he play.

Turner should have a cake walk compared to what Jrue went through.

To be fair, Jrue was not called on to be a floor general (which resulted in less than stellar assist numbers.) This made it easier to adjust on the fly to the NBA.

Eh, not so sure about that. A nebulous role isn't helpful for development imo.

Very funny Iguodala anecdote here. Chris Sheridan was very impressed today by Iguodala, who has been criticized by a lot of casual Team USA fans for (surprise) not scoring much. But if the U.S. goes on to win the gold, that 12-0 run will be remembered as one of the key moments.

Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be crazy sports days. Saturday afternoon has the USA-Lithuania semifinals (Lithuania bombed Argentina in a shocker today) at 2:30 PM EDT, the Phillies at 4:10 PM, the U.S. Open men's semifinals throughout the afternoon, Wladimir Klitschko vs. Sam Peter heavyweight title fight at 4:30 PM, and Penn State vs. Alabama at 7 PM. Sunday is potentially even worse. USA possibly in the world basketball finals at 2:30 PM, Phillies at 1:30 PM, early NFL games at 1 PM, Eagles season opener at 4:15 PM, U.S. Open men's final at 4:30 PM, and McNabb's Redskins' debut vs. the Cowboys at 8:30 PM. September is usually one of my favorite sports months, but this weekend is unreal ...


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