DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan



, all the time

Projecting With Advanced Stats (Part 2)

The answer is 42

Interesting stuff, Brian. I didn't know WP and WS were that accurate (mostly within +/- 3 wins). I guess the one factor that can't be predicted easily (and that you factored out by using exact minutes) is injuries.

I'm curious as to how the 09-10 projections got to be so low. Was the downgrade because of the loss of Miller that significant?

Another question: for veteran players' predictions, did you use the WP/48 and WS/48 for the previous season only, or a running average over, say, the past three seasons?

For predicting next year, the hard part will be how to estimate the production of rookies. Reminds me of playing Strat-o-Matic as a kid, and I had to create a card of Barkley for the 84-85 Sixers (wasn't too far off, either).

I went with previous year only, that was as much time as I had to put into it.

Yeah, when you're looking back, you have the exact minutes played, for tomorrow's post, there's a whole lot of guesswork involved.

I'll include all the tables with the final post in the series, some interesting stuff in there.

Joe reply to Statman on Sep 22 at 16:58

Don't forget this post from Brian.

The highest WP number is 9.7 over the past 4 years. The highest WS number is 6.5.

A real solid season for a rookie would be around 5-6. Rookies typically don't make a big impact. Last year shows they can, though, as Curry, Evans, and Blair were all stellar.

mchezo reply to Statman on Sep 23 at 7:14

Hey statman. Here is a link to an article that analyzes Miller's impact and other issues using advanced stats.


Howdy all, Many of us have got a enquiry. Has someone been told that Rockberries will be now growing in the market to a few other international locations and in addition paying out loads into marketing promotions. These people actually have TV advertising here in Germany on Pro 7. These people have futhermore completed an IPO within Germany. Looks to indeed be growing huge very fast. Could someone now have any existing emerging News with regard to Rockberries.com?

Expand/Contract all comments

Leave a comment