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Brace Yourselves (Part 3)

deepsixersuede on Sep 23 at 8:06

Collins track record of bigtime record improvement against an E.Jordan-induced coma from last year; I expect Turner will not disappoint and improvement across the board for a coach that has a clue from at least 6 players.

I would have to think that Thad, brand, jrue and speights will have much better numbers under collins than they did under jordan.

I expect Jrue's numbers to improve simply because he isn't going to be a rookie anymore and he'll have consistent playing time. I think that would've happened no matter who the coach is.

Thad and Brand are both interesting cases. I'm assuming Collins has told Brand that he's going to have to concentrate on the defensive glass. If he does, and he still has the physical ability to rebound at a high rate, his production will climb.

Thad's a wild card. He has gotten appreciably worse every season in the league.

I think where coaching would come into play (particularly for the Collins/Jordan combo) is in the team defense. On quick perusal, WP48 contains a team defense adjustment, so one would assume the number would be better under Collins than Jordan (and all Sixers' WP48 values would improve). Win Shares seems to be entirely offensive, though there is another stat of Defensive Win Shares.

Thanks for the link yesterday, by the way. Interesting read, and it pointed out the declines in Thad/Speights/Brand that you have been discussing with Brian.

As mentioned above, there are several reasons why these projections could be far off.

1. Number derived from players in EJ's system are not going to translate perfectly to playing under Collins.

2. Rebounding will be a big issue, but by default other players rebounding numbers will rise since Sam won't be vacuuming up all of the boards. This will give everyone else a bump in WP not reflected in these projections.
-This is like when a team loses a superstar 35ppg scorer everyone else will score a bit more simply from increased opportunities- so you can't use there PPG while playing in the shadow of the star to project there scoring once he is gone. In the same way Sam was a truly elite rebounder.

3. The Sixers have a bunch of young players who could see a serious bump in productivity- especially with almost everyone coming off a down season (except WG and Lou.)

Number one does cut both ways with Lou and Willie, which you mentioned later on. The rebounding is a good point, so how many extra wins could vulture rebounds mean for the front court group?

Right now, the projections for our bigs (Hawes, Speights, Brand, Battie, J. Smith) are as follows:

WP: -1.383 WP
WS: 9.588 WS

Joe reply to tk76 on Sep 23 at 11:40

2. You are overstating diminishing returns. Berri has plenty of posts up on the subject.

Great job with the numbers! I would sure hope we beat our projections for this year, if not that would mean a new coach had very little effect. I think if Brand is healthy he will probably have a better season, there were a couple times last year where he was playing well and didn't look like he was toast. Jrue should continue to improve and if Speights is in decent shape this year he could definetely be more productive. I realize that right now it's more about development than wins, but I would consider it a disappointment if the Sixers don't win at least 30 games. It's exhausting rooting for the lottery.

But now willie green is gone, so I am already happy

Wow, breaking news. I'm guessing you aren't as happy as Brian, though ;-)

Wow. We didn't take on any long-term money, did we?

Court_visioN reply to Brian on Sep 23 at 11:16

craig brackins on rookie contract, darius songaila $4.6 mil expiring.

According to the report I saw (on libertyballers.com) it's Songalia and Brackins for Smith and Green.

So basically the sixers got Brackins?

I just put up a post. A+ move, unless there's something we aren't hearing.

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