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The Melo Factor

Oh, forgot to mention, I think it's highly, highly unlikely this happens. Thorn would have to do a serious sales job and then some.

SAS is saying the Nuggets really want Iguodala, which changes things, if true. Denver's leverage is slipping every day in this situation.

I have to say I don't like this trade at all, though I do like, as someone in the previous post said, that Thorn is doing his due diligence.
As Kate Fagan wrote, there is a feeling of optimism creeping back into this franchise. Sure, this is due to arrival to Collins, Turner and Thorn BUT also Dre winning gold in Istanbul.
In his Q&A Collins said he wanted the team to have multiple double digit scorers, I think he was talking about six players or so, but he did not envisage there being one major scorer. So getting Anthony may be not what he wants.
It seems to me that there is a connection between Dre and Collins - one that has be created and maintained over the summer and that can only be a good thing. I personally would like to see where it can go.
On a personal level I'd hate to see Dre leave. As a Brit I had no exposure to basketball at all until I saw Dre's dunk at the All Star game. That’s when I started following the Sixers and I think his commitment to the franchise in comparison to Melo's apparent reluctance/refusal to contemplate signing an extension here is a very good reason as to why Thorn should not do the trade.

I appreciate the fact that you started rooting for Sixers just because the you saw Iggy's dunk at the all-star game more then some drunkard who hopped on the bandwagon in 2000 when the sixers started winning. It's random moments like that which can make a fan, I like that.

Brian, I love the new format. It's much, much better this way. Please don't change!

Fellas, Iggy is a nice player but we're talking about Melo here. No contest, I mean cmon!

A core of Melo, Jrue, and Turner would be incredible, and also highly unlikely so I won't get myself all worked up.

There's no trade w/out an extension, so I don't think you have to worry about that. As for Collins plans for the team with multiple double-digit scorers, I'm sure he'd amend that expectation if they got Melo.

Would Anthony change his mind about signing an extension with the Sixers if Igoudala stayed? After the great word of mouth from the Istanbul WCH, that Igoudala received from his teammates, is it inconceivable that he might be interested in some sort of a Jrue/Igoudala/Anthony/Brand core. Turner, Young, possibly Speights form a better package for the Nuggets IMO (far better than the Nets one)... I'm baffled why nobody speaks of this scenario...

deepsixersuede on Sep 27 at 8:17

Brian, it seems to be said a lot that to build a team best the superstar should be gotten first than put the pieces around him [Durant?]. Is Carmelo considered a superstar? Maybe Derek could chime in about using the tier system as it is used on draft night; Is Carmelo on the 2nd tier? I like Iggy but if Carmelo is gettable it makes sense to me because of his age.

And if Denver wants Iggy, Carmelo wants N.J., we want Favors than Thorn has to get creative with adding a 4th team to get it done. That would sure be fun on the trade machine ? If N.Jersey wants a p.g. in return maybe L.Will. works for them?

Mike P reply to deepsixersuede on Sep 27 at 9:02

This is what drives me nuts. The Sixers should be pushing hard as hell to get this to happen between the two teams. Why can't they just say "We are going to rebuild the right way"

If Billy King is out there making stupid decisions with first round picks and a potential talent like Favors why isn't Thorn jumping all over that? Do they really think Brand and Iggy are going to lead us somewhere?

Everyone but Jrue and Turner should be offered to make this happen. Is having a .500 team that important to management? *sigh* I just realized it is.

The only problem I see with that logic is what would the Sixers really get if they just threw their hat into the current four-team deal? I mean, look at the other two teams in it right now. Charlotte's getting Devin Harris, which, I want no part of him. And Utah is getting Boris Diaw?

Say it becomes a three-team deal, the Sixers maybe get Favors, an expiring from NJ (Humphries) and what else? The picks will still be going to Denver, imo. There's really nothing on either roster that's all that great.

Now maybe I make the deal anyway, but I don't think the haul we'd get in return would really be anything more than Favors, at least not the usable stuff.

Mike P reply to Brian on Sep 27 at 10:26

I'd be pretty excited if the team got Favors and still kept Turner and Jrue.

That is a complete backcourt and big man all on rookie pay that could be spectacular together. Just let Brand's contract come off the books and put the pieces around them.

I would have hoped that we are getting involved to be part of a 3 team trade where we would get youth(Favors?) but with Thorn running the show and his track record of acquiring stars in there prime, I believe he is going after Anthony.

If they had Melo this year, wouldn't Collins be able to hide Carmelo better than anyone? He fits the offensive mold for Collins' system, but how would our defense be?

Think about the starting lineup. He might have some trouble hiding three below average defensive players (Brand, Melo, Whoever else starts). I don't know if I want trouble for a win-now move like Melo. I'd like more answers than questions if we're inking him to a huge deal. You ink Melo with a better core in place, not a questionable one.

Melo doesn't really need to be hidden on the defensive end. He's not a stopper and he's not as versatile as Iguodala, but he's either a bit below average (PER against) or better than average (dMult), depending on which advanced metrics you like.

Of course, Iguodala helps you hide other players' deficiencies on the defensive end, Melo won't do that for you.

Mike P reply to Brian on Sep 27 at 10:44

Does he?

When did he become this supreme elite defender? He hasn't even been voted to an all defensive team and we treat him like he's Dennis Johnson/prime Ron Artest.

Jrue is in the backcourt now, he can defend the opponents PG which is increasingly important in the new NBA. Perimeter defense isn't as important as interior defense and according to a lot of people on this blog we should have had the best defense in the league last year with Sammie and Iggy on the court.

I have no idea why we are so high on someone who is a 3rd option and has lead us to a .500 record at best. IN THE EAST.

When did he become this supreme elite defender? He hasn't even been voted to an all defensive team and we treat him like he's Dennis Johnson/prime Ron Artest.

He's a quality defender and always has been. There are better ways to evaluate defenders than if they win a popularity contest created by tv broadcasters. It's like evaluating a baseball players defense cause he wins a gold glove. If you're relying on 'all defensive teams' to evaluate defense, then the flaw is the choice.

The Nuggets have also queried the Golden State Warriors about including Stephen Curry in a deal, according to The Denver Post.

Now, go get Stephen Curry Rod Thorn

Mike P reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 10:51

He is a good defender, but he is not Michael Jordan in his prime or Gary Payton or something.

Andre I is a good player, but his reputation is just tarnished because of his being thrust into the star role on the team and his larger then deserved pay.

If his contract was like 15 million lower there would be no annoyance here.

And yeah, go get Curry to put next to Jrue and Turner.

If his contract was like 15 million lower there would be no annoyance here.

Oh right, I forgot he's over paid.

But you'd give Carmelo the 25 mil per year extension it requires to get him to agree to a deal and not consider him overpaid?

Mike P reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 11:30

He is overpaid.

Melo doesn't deserve a Max contract either. 3 years 65 million is fine for Melo.

The pros and cons are simple. The best case scenario is us moving Iggys contract and getting Favors and some expirings and maybe some picks.

If we can get Melo for Iggy and spare change, lets do that and just flip him by the trade deadline.

The cons are we get Melo and sign him to a giant contract and are stuck in .500 town until Brands contract runs out. It's a lateral move unless Favors is included for us.

Any criticism of Iggy is seen as anti Iguodala rants here and I have no idea why. He is what he is.

I guess we'll keep him and get to a .500 record again and get swept in the playoffs by miami. Then we can pick some project loser like Thad in the mid rounds and the cycle will continue until Evan Turner and Jrue get fed up and leave.

3 years 65 million is fine for Melo.

So you believe carmelo is worth 22 million a year but Iguodala isn't worth his contract and your argument that he isn't a good defender is that he didn't make all nba defensive teams yet?

Mike P reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 11:38

My argument is that people are highly overrating Andre's contributions to the team with his defense.

He is good, but not as everyone is saying.

I don't even want Melo, I want the team trade everyone but Jrue and Turner and end up with Favors and some other pieces.

He's been a supreme elite defender basically his entire career. If you want to knock Iguodala for shot selection last year, or whatever other nonsense on the offensive end, that's fine, but he's a game-changer as a wing defender, pretty much always has been.

I'm high on him because he's a very good player. Melo's a very good player as well.

Melo has also "lead (sic)" his team to 6 first-round exits in 7 playoff appearances. For his career, he's led his team to a sparkling 10-25 record in the first round of the playoffs.

If you want to discuss the pros/cons of this deal, at least try to put a little bit of thought into it and don't turn it into another idiotic anti-Iguodala rant. We aren't comparing him to a guy with a track record like Kobe here.

Rich reply to Brian on Sep 27 at 10:52

Think about this though, since Denver has gotten better, Karl's philosophy was to stick an absolute stopper out there with him. Dahntay Jones and Afflalo are the two guys I really remember and then they put a bunch of enforcers at the 4 like K-Mart and Birdman. Pretty good people to protect you, no? I feel like he actually is a little worse than those numbers, so I doubt he's average.

Are we entrusting the role of stopper/spot-up shooter to Evan Turner? That kind of takes an opportunity out of his hands. Plus, is this the frontcourt you want with Melo? I'd kind of like a little more toughness (Reggie Evans mold, not Reggie Evans) instead of guys like Speights, Hawes, and Brand. It would be a win-now move too.

This shouldn't really be strictly about Iguodala vs. Melo, as this team doesn't get in a top spot based on either person solely. It's that Melo doesn't do it unless Collins is a miracle worker, so why bother? I wouldn't mind trading Iguodala in a Favors package, but why take on Melo if he's not making a HUGE difference.

I agree w/ you 100%, and with or without Melo, this front court is pitiful. Until you fix that, everything else is window dressing.

Scott reply to Brian on Sep 27 at 11:21

Dont most of these comments lead to the conclusion that we should really be trying to get Favors and not Melo in a deal?

If we invest in Favors over Melo we would have a good chance to be strong defensively in the back court and front court. We'd lose Iguodala but gain Favors. This would shift our strength defensively from the back court to the front court. And we still have Holiday holding it down defensively at PG.

We also would have much better financial flexibility, or I should say control financially as we move forward.

It would take time for this to happen, and there are no guarantees, but thats how teams are built. And we wouldn't be locked in past rookie contracts if players dont pan out. We'd probably also take a step back this year as the young core develops and get another solid draft pick to help round out the core.

Brian, you've had a lot of good posts with analysis based on Melo vs Iguodala. What about Favors? NJ wants Melo. Denver wants Iguodala. Shouldnt we push to be the third team in that deal to try and get Favors as was originally rumored?

Dont most of these comments lead to the conclusion that we should really be trying to get Favors and not Melo in a deal?

Well yeah, but 'we' are not running the sixers, and the sixers seem to think swapping Iguodala for Anthony is a good idea.

Fortunately (for some of us) Carmelo Anthony doesn't like the idea of playing here long term.

Mike P reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 11:36

This is what is so maddening because the Sixers keep saying they don't want to the be the facilitator in the deal when they are in the perfect spot do so.

Melo isn't the target, you may think I want him, but I don't. Favors it the guy I'm after. Favors, expirings, and picks.

Tear down and build up. How is getting Favors not a positive in the rebuilding process of the team?

"IT BOGGLES THE MIND" - Frank Grimes

Interesting analysis, Brian. The cautionary tale from the Sixers' recent past is still the 05-06 Sixers. All the arguments about Carmelo could be made about Iverson that year: took all the shots and scored relatively efficiently (same as Carmelo last year), put up an unreal 26+ PER, made the game easy for his teammates on offense. Yet the team still wound up 38-44 and out of the playoffs. Without question, Carmelo is a #1, go-to offensive player. But is he the guy you want to build your franchise around for the next several years?

The key to the trade might not be Iguodala but what else the Sixers send to complete it. There's another cautionary tale from the Nuggets' own history. Back in 1984, they shipped out a superstar, Kiki Vandeweghe, coming off a 29 PPG season (with a 61% TS%), in a 5-for-1 trade. The centerpiece of their return package was Calvin Natt, who had a career year in 84-85 and led the Nuggets to the West Finals. Natt got hurt two years later and his career was mostly over, but the Nuggets also received a backup PG who blossomed into a star for them, Fat Lever. Vandeweghe, meanwhile, gave the Blazers some productive years but the team won exactly one playoff series while he was with them, only achieving real success in the early 90's after he left.

For me, the crux of the matter comes to this: is Carmelo, as great a scorer as he is, a franchise cornerstone? If the Sixers trade for him and somehow put all the right pieces around him, can he lead a good team to greatness? A fair assessment of his career to this point says no, though players can change. But the Sixers really need to think hard about this, because trading for Carmelo and signing him to an extension will set their franchise path for years to come.

Is there any difference between Anthony in Denver and KG when he was in Minnesota? KG couldn't get it done in the west regardless of his ability and it took being surrounded by 2 other 'top 20' players to get him to the promised land. Any reason that Carmelo isn't exactly the same case?

Rich reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 11:28

I think there's a difference there, though the W/L resumes are very similar. I remember KG not getting out of the 1st Round for what seemed like an eternity and then teamed up with Sprewell/Cassell and made a conference finals. Very similar to Carmelo and Chauncey.

I think there's a couple of differences though. KG was an upgrade on both ends of the floor, and though some of Melo's defensive metrics aren't terrible, many stats pointed to KG being the best player in the league for a couple of years. KG was a tad older than Melo so maybe Melo's prime is still ahead of him.

Basic difference- Celtics had pieces to win-now, Sixers aren't close.

Rich, I agree with you, I wasn't thinking sixers really though. I was thinking KG/ Carmelo in a vacuum. In that they aren't the kinds of guys who can win without other top 20/25 pieces around them.

Rich reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 11:49

Yeah, they are very good comparisons. Can anyone in the league win without a Top 20/25 player though? Maybe Wade did it that one year?

That one year Wade did it, he had this guy named Shaq who wasn't over the hill just yet :)

Joe reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 13:54

Kevin Garnett won 50 games with Wally Z as the #2 option offensively and then Hudson as the #3 and Rasho as the #4.

Pretty silly to compare the 2.

KG had no one most of his career. Melo has had HOF players and fringe HOFs and elite NBA "role" players.

How many playoff series did Kevin Garnett win 'on his own'?

Did the Favors deal just die, because that deal would be done if the Sixers were willing. I just read the quote that they 'weren't interested' in being a third party facilitator. So the Sixers completely squashed that deal?

I haven't seen anything that indicates that there ever was a Favors deal for the sixers. The only things I've read regarding Favors to the sixers are baseless blog speculations and hopes and that one article that wasn't anything more than a writers speculation that evolved.

The only deal I've heard that is 'legitimately' supported as fact is the four way deal agreed upon between the nuggets, jazz, bobcats, and nets that supposedly is not held up by Anthony but by The Nuggets trying to milk more from the stone.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure this is where it stands right now. That's the only legit rumor, the rest is just noise.

I think this depends entirely on what you think of Evan Turner. If you think Turner can be as good on offense as Brandon Roy, then why in the world would you do this deal? We now have our great scorer (hypothetically) and Iguodala can be his Pippen-lite - which by itself doesn't get you that far but with Holiday maybe it does. On the other hand, if you're pessimistic about Turner like me, then you may well want to do this deal. Now that we're guaranteed to be mediocre, we won't be getting great draft picks anymore, and as this summer has shown, it's not easy to get a great scorer through free agency. And, if Turner doesn't turn out, he'll lose trade value, so you'll end up having to make a move like this anyway because Iguodala will be the only valuable asset we'd be willing to move. The moral of the story, in my view, is that we should have picked Cousins.

Any conclusions about what Turner might or might not be in the NBA are entirely premature

Tray reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 13:44

Very true, which means this trade is premature.

Trading for Anthony without keeping Iguodala is a fools errand in general in my opinion :)

Just to play devil's advocate, getting Melo now could take the burden off Turner to have to score like Brandon Roy, and let him mature into a role more like what Iguodala plays right now, playing defense, making plays for others and scoring efficiently.

Tray reply to Brian on Sep 27 at 13:47

Except Turner will never be as good a defender as Iguodala. Anyway, I don't think Carmelo will sign an extension here.

True, but he could be a better scorer, even a better overall player eventually.

Tray reply to Brian on Sep 27 at 14:24

Well if so, we shouldn't be trading for another big-time perimeter scorer.

Definitely don't want too many guys who can score on the perimeter.

Hollinger predicts 43 wins for the sixers Insider Article

Saw that, odd when MSM people are more bullish on the team than I am. Actually, it kind of worries me.

bebopdeluxe reply to GoSixers on Sep 27 at 15:19

43 wins sounds about right to me.

My feeling on Turner is that I want to see what he is while given a chance to be a relative #1 option. With Carmelo, I'm positive that he doesn't get that chance. I'm more skeptical on Turner but I am excited to see him play and with or without Iguodala, I think he gets that chance. I want to give him as much freedom on offense as possible to see what he can do, not restrict him. Signing Carmelo is almost cheating yourself on Turner.

Hmmn....interesting idea for a quick post from this comment. Check the page in a couple minutes, thanks for the idea.

Here's a fun blast from the past post. 84%!

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